State Implementation Plan (SIP) Development Process

Presentation to:

Triangle Area

Mayors and County Commission Board Chairs

Donnie Redmond

August 11, 2005

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Summary

• Follow-up to the April 7 presentation– Attainment demonstration– Redesignation request

• What do you need to remember from this presentation?

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How does “nonattainment”affect the Triangle?

• New Source Review (NSR)

• Transportation conformity

• State Implementation Plan (SIP)

• Awareness of health issues

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NC 8-hr Ozone Nonattainment Areas

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What is the difference between the two processes?

• Attainment demonstration– Essentially, a modeling exercise to demonstrate

that the State has a valid plan to attain the standard

– I.e., computer projection of future air quality

• Redesignation request– Separate process undertaken once local field

monitors show standards have been met– I.e., actual measurement of current air

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Attainment Demonstration

• Why is it important?– Determine whether we have to add more

environmental programs to meet the Federal standards

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Attainment Demonstration

• How is it going?– Ozone is measured in the summer– Goal is <85ppm in ’08

Measured 94ppm ‘03

Measured 89ppm ‘04

Modeled tbd ‘08

Modeled 80ppm ‘09

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Attainment Demonstration• What does it mean?

– It looks like we will be able to show “attainment” of the Federal ozone standard without adding new air pollution programs beyond what are already planned

• Federal control measures– Cleaner vehicles– Cleaner fuels– NOx SIP Call/Clean Air Interstate Rule

• State control measures– Better auto emissions testing procedure– Expanded auto emissions testing– Clean Smokestacks Act

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Attainment Demonstration Timeline

• Summer 2005: Modeling results

• Fall 2005: Strategies (if needed)

• Spring 2006: Public hearings

• Fall 2006: Environmental Management Commission (EMC) approval

• Early 2007: Legislative review

• June 2007: Due to EPA

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Redesignation Request

• Process that DAQ will undertake when actual measurement of the air shows it meets the Federal standard

• Why is it important?– Remove “nonattainment” label– Remove new source review (NSR)

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AQ Monitor Network Overview

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Current Ozone Values(Standard is less than 85 ppm)

County 2001-2003

average

2002-2004

average

Durham 89 86

Franklin 90 88

Granville 94 89

Person 91 87

Wake 92 88

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Triangle Ozone Monitors(3-year average must be less than 85ppm)

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70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

2002 2003 2004 Needed in 2005 for 3-yr avg<85ppm

Year

Four

th H

ighe

st

Ozo

ne V

alue

(ppm

) tha

t yea

r

Wake Millbrook Wake Fuquay Wake WRAL Tow er Granville Butner Durham Duke

Franklin Franklinton Person Bushy Fork Johnston W.Johnston Chatham Pittsboro

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So far this summer …• If we are to attain this year, the main

monitors of concern are:– Butner (Granville)

• Fourth highest cannot exceed 83ppm• As of August 5, it’s at 84ppm

– Fuquay (Wake)• Fourth highest cannot exceed 88ppm• As of August 4, it’s at 85ppm

– Raw data; has not been QA’d

• We have to attain by 2008

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Future: Potential Developments

• When we get through this current process, we cannot declare victory and go home …

• Growth assumptions may change

• Science may change– EPA is now reviewing ozone and PM

standards• Sept 2006: Fine particles• Dec 2007: Ozone

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Local Measures• Focus on major emission sources• Reduction in vehicle miles traveled• Nonroad engines

– Generators, construction equipment, lawnmowers, etc.

• Fleet turnover• Alternative fuels• Diesel retrofit, anti-idling policies• Growth management• Episodic controls

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What do you need to take away from this …

• We think we will be able to show that our air will meet standards in ’08 with our existing environmental programs

• We think the air will actually be under the standard this summer (slim chance) or next

• Be happy, but remember things may change in the future

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For additional info

• Donnie Redmond– Asst. Chief for Planning– 919-733-1481– Donnie.Redmond@ncmail.net

• DAQ website– www.ncair.org