State Demography OfficeColorado Department of Local Affairs

2015www.colorado.gov/demography

Growing ForwardPopulation Trends in

Archuleta County

Main Points Growing Forward• Income Challenges• Migration – how much, where,

and can we compete for the best and the brightest?

• Aging – we are getting old fast, labor force, income, industrial mix

• Growth – disparate across the state

• Ethnic/race diversity – increasing and aging into labor force.

Big Picture - 2013-2014 Pop Change• US – 318 million, + 2.3 million or .7%

• Colorado

• 5,355,000

• Ranked 4th fastest 1.6% - ND, NV, TX

• 8th absolute growth 83,700 – TX, CA, FL, GA, AZ, NC, WA

• Range in Colorado - Preliminary

• +15,000 to -400 Or +5% to -3.5%

2015 2030 2040Archuleta 12,465 18,427 23,120

Factors Growing Forward?• Current Conditions as a base.

• National/International Conditions

• Build Out

• Cost of Living – Competition with lower cost states.

• Water

Transitions Growing Forward• Income Challenges• Migration – how much, where,

job dependent, and can we compete for the best and the brightest?

• Aging – we are getting old fast, labor force, income, industrial mix

• Growth – disparate across the state

• Ethnic/race diversity – increasing and aging into labor force.

Census Bureau

Why Are We Getting Old Fast?• Currently very few people over the age 65. ◦ 4th lowest share of all states in US (10%)

• Baby Boomers◦ Born 1946 – 1964

◦ 1,340,000 Boomers in Colorado (26% of pop. in 2010)

• By 2030, Colorado’s population 65+ will be 125% larger than it was in 2010 growing from 555,000 to 1,243,000. (just from aging)

• Transition age distribution from “young” to more US average between 2010 and 2030.

State Demography Office, Census Bureau

Aging Issues• Numbers• Economic Driver - wealthier ….

depends ◦ Impact on occupational mix

• Labor Force• Housing• Income – Downward Pressure• Health• Disabilities• Transportation• Public Finance – Downward Pressure

Household Income….its future is demographically challenged.

• Age distributions – “End of “Demographic Dividend”

• Occupational Mix – high and low service

• More race/ethnicity diverse especially at young end but achievement gap is growing as well.

• Household type and size – single and smaller.

• Youth un and under employment - Long term permanent impacts on earnings.

State Demography Office

To Ponder in My Community• Can we compete for best and brightest?◦ Maintaining Economic and Amenity

Advantages

• Can we manage growth in high and low skill/wage service jobs – bifurcation

• Disparate growth across state.

• More racially/ethnically diverse.

• Are we set to cope with opportunities and challenges of an aging population?

• How could downward pressure on household income impact our community

Thank you

State Demography Office

Department of Local Affairs

Elizabeth Garner

Elizabeth.garner@state.co.us

303-864-7750

www.colorado.gov/demography

Aging and Public Finance• Ratio of 65+ per 20-64 year olds in CO

• Becoming more “normal”• End of the “demographic dividend”• Public Finance – change in revenue and expenditures.

• Income tax – downward pressure• Sales tax – downward pressure• Property tax – downward pressure• Health services – increasing• Medicaid – increasing

Transition

1990-2010 2010-2030 2030+

Source: State Demography Office

Median Home Value

Households By AgeSource: Census Bureau (1990, 2000) and State Demography Office (2010-2030)

March 2011

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

1,000,000

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

18-24 25-44 45-64 65 & Over

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2011 Annual Average

Labor Force 16-34 is 35% of the labor force yet 50% of the unemployed

Source ACS 2012 1 yr PUMS

2013 Share of Jobs by IndustrySector Name Colorado Archuleta Dolores La Plata Montezuma San JuanAgriculture 1.5% 5.8% 22.9% 2.9% 6.5% N/AMining 1.1% 0.8% N/A 2.2% 2.0% N/AUtilities 0.3% 0.6% N/A 0.4% 0.8% N/AConstruction 6.1% 11.4% 17.5% 10.4% 6.6% 7.9%Manufacturing 4.7% 1.9% N/A 2.2% 3.2% N/AWholesale Trade 3.5% 0.9% N/A 2.0% 2.1% N/ARetail Trade 9.7% 12.0% 8.0% 10.6% 11.9% 13.5%Transportation & Warehousing 2.7% 0.7% 2.0% 2.1% 1.7% 4.5%Information 2.6% 1.3% N/A 1.5% 0.8% N/AFinance and Insurance 4.2% 1.8% N/A 3.5% 1.8% N/AReal Estate and Rental and Leasing 3.4% 6.9% N/A 3.8% 2.6% N/AProfessional and Technical Services 9.0% 6.4% 2.1% 6.2% 3.8% 6.5%Management of Companies 1.2% N/A N/A 0.1% 0.4% N/AAdministrative and Waste Services 6.1% N/A N/A 3.7% 2.8% N/AEducational Services 1.9% 1.0% N/A 1.3% 1.2% N/AHealth Care and Social Assistance 9.6% 6.1% N/A 10.7% 13.5% N/AArts, Entertainment, and Recreation 2.5% 2.7% N/A 3.6% 1.1% 8.5%Accommodation and Food Services 8.3% 13.0% 5.6% 10.1% 8.4% 23.9%Other Services 6.0% 9.8% 6.6% 5.2% 5.8% 3.9%Government 15.7% 12.9% 26.1% 17.4% 23.2% 22.0%

N/A - SuppressedSource: State Demography Office

Population forecast methodology

+Births - Deaths+ Net

Migration

X LFPR

Jobs

- 2nd & 3rd job

- Commuters

Economic forecast Cohort-component

Labor SupplyLabor Demand

Differences resolved by net migration

96% of Peak