nn

State Climate Change Action Program of Baja California (PEACC-BC)

Tereza CavazosDepto. de Oceanografía Física, CICESE

http://peac-bc.cicese.mx

Oceans & Weather Impacting Business and InfrastructureThe Maritime Alliance, San Diego, CA, 4 March 2011

(PND 2007-2012, Fig. VI.1 from SEMARNAT, 2009)

Axis 4: Environmental Sustainability

Sectoral Programs

National Strategy on Climate Change (2007)

Special Program of CC (2009-2012)

State Climate Change Action Programs (PEACC)

National Development Program (2007-2012)

Mexico’s Public Policy on Climate Change

Baja California

6 transversal axes

Regional Sustainable

Development

Technical Secretariat

ExternalExpertGroups

Advisory

Review

Climatology Health

Energy Economy

Agric/Ranch. Marine Ecos.

FisheriesBiodiversity

Transport

Urban Dev.Water

Coasts Housing

Legislation

Society

CICESECOLEFUABC

GHG Invent.

LocalExperts

PEACC-BC General

Coordination

PEACC Objectives (2008-2011) To update GHG emissions inventory and scenarios To develop regional climate change scenarios To diagnose the state of socio-economic and environmental

sectors and to evaluate impacts and vulnerability due to climate change

GoalsTo identify opportunities for mitigation and to propose

strategies on adaptation and mitigation for public policy

BC AGRICULTUREThe products of major commercial value are tomatoes, strawberries, wheat, onions and grapes

BC Water51% of the surface water in BC comes from the Colorado River and 30% of the water consumption is from aquifers.

WATER CONSUMPTION IN BC

AGRICULTURE 87%

PUBLIC-URBAN 8%

INDUSTRY 5%

Problematic Aquifers in Mexico (2003)

OVEREXPLOITEDSALT INTRUSIONSALINIZATIONOVEREXPLOITED&SAL.OVEREXPL. & SOIL SAL.

35o

25o

-118o -112o

BC

GCMs Resolution(>250 km)

Regional Models

(< 50 km)

Downscaling: Dynamical/Statistical

IPCC: 23 Global

Models (GCMs)

Regional CC Scenarios

If CO2e increases, global temperature increases

2.5 C

Atm

osp

her

ic C

O2

con

cen

trat

ion

(p

pm

)

Year

1.5 C

T

0.0 C

A2

B1

2.0 C

3.0 C

35o

25o

-118o -112o

BC

Regional projections of climate change (selection of best GCMs for the region under

B1 and A2 emissions scenarios)

Statistically downscaled CMIP3 projections (IPCC, 2007) at 12 km resolution using the bias correction technique from the

Livermore National Lab and Santa Clara University, California.

http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections

IPCC Models

6 Models - 12 Simulations

BCCR2 (NOR) - 1

CGCM47 (CAN) - 5

CNRM-C3 (FRA): 1

CSIRO-MK3 (AUS) - 1

MIROC3.2 (JPN) - 3

HADCM3 (UK) - 1

35o

25o -118o -112o

BC

MON

The best models for the region

Projections of changes in temperature (oC) in Baja California during the 21st Century

(relative 1961-1990)

Ensemble of 6 IPCC models (Median ± 1 std)

18.0oC

20.5oC

T (oC)23.0oC

Grapevine climate/maturity groupings (Apr – Oct)

COOL INTERMEDIATE WARM HOT

13 – 15°C 15 – 17°C 17 – 19°C 19 – 24°C

GuadalupeValley,

B.C.

19°C

(Jones 2006)

ZINFANDEL

NEBIOLO

RAISINS

GRENACHE

CABERNET SAUVIGNON

TABLE GRAPES

MERLOT

SYRAH

TEMPRANILLO

SAUVIGNON BLANC

CHARDONAY

Bidecadal change of annual temperature (°C) (relative to 1961-1990)

2030-2049

2080-2099

A2: Altas emisiones

1.5°C – 2°C

>4°C

Bidecadal change of annual precipitation (%)(relative to 1961-1990)

Colors other than white indicate that 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of change

2010-2029

2080-2099

-14% (26mm)

-36% (66mm)

Bi-decadal change of seasonal precipitation (%) under A2

.

Colors other than white indicate that 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of change

2080-2099 minus 1961-1990

DJF MAM JJA

DJF DJF

Large variability:El Niño

Change in winter (DJF) precipitation (%) in Baja California.

(relative to 1961-1990; blue dots indicate that 2/3 of the models agree on the sign of change)

El Descanso,Baja California

Playas de Tijuana

Road Tecate-Ensenada

URBAN DEVELOPMENT: VULNERABILITY

TIJUANA – SAN DIEGO BORDER

Risk areas during heavy precipitation events

(Tomado de Winckell & Le Page, 2003).

San Diego

Tijuana

Water Availability

Present Projection to 2100

(Galindo 2008)

Water Availability in BC: 2,500 MmWater Availability in BC: 2,500 Mm33/yr/yr

Per inhabitant: 1,000 mPer inhabitant: 1,000 m33/yr /yr

(Galindo 2008)

Temperature in BC could increase between 1.5 and 4.5oC during the 21st century

Precipitation could decrease from 15 to 36%

Major Challenges: Water and extreme events

- Efficient use of water and irrigation- Treatment and reuse of water- Desalinization?- Drought resistant plants - Urban Development - Monitoring, forecast and prevention

Conclusions y Recommendations