STATE BUDGET OUTLOOKMULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS

OFFICE OF STATE FINANCENovember 1, 2011*

Shelly PaulkRevenue Analyst

*To be updated upon release of OSU Econometric Forecast in late November.

GENERAL REVENUE TRENDSIncome vs. Expenditures

(In Millions)

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

FY-05

FY-06

FY-07

FY-08

FY-09

FY-10

FY-11

FY-12

FY-13

FY-14

FY-15

FY-16

Actual Collections

Appropriations

$772.8$527.2

($104.3)

$503$621.3

OFFICIAL ESTIMATE$5,916.4m

$5,665.4m

$5,759.2m

Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2004 thru FY-2011 – Ave. 3.1%

Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 thru FY 2011) – Ave. 2.31%

Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP (est. 8.22%) and ROADS increases (11 Session)

Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2004 thru FY-2012 Act – Normalized Ave. 2.97%

$5,969.3m

$267.9$156.9

$429.1

Revenue and expenditure growth rates are based on trends from OSF actual numbers and effects of current law.

$5,236.3

$2,1

09.1

$2,1

48.4

$2,1

60.1

$2,3

00.3

$274

.3

$202

.8

$229

.5

$259

.6

$275

.9

$333

.1

$301

.8

$269

.4

$1,6

68.3

$1,7

47.4

$1,8

11.4

$1,8

77.6

$198

.6

$221

.3

$223

.1

$225

.0

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

FY-2011 FY-2012 FY-2013 FY-2014

Personal Income Tax

Corp. Income Tax

GP Gas

Sales Tax

Motor Vehicle Tax

General Revenue Fund SourcesTrend Based Projections, In Millions

(TO BE UPDATED WITH OSU ECONOMETRIC FORECAST)Ave.3.0% Growth

Ave. 0.1% Growth

Ave. 0.2% Growth

Ave. 4.0% Growth

Ave. 4.4% Growth

OSF ACTUAL 10-YEAR NORMALIZED TREND –BASED OSF PROJECTIONS

FY-2012 – FY-2014

SOURCES SHOWN ARE TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING, LESS DEFERRED GP TAX CREDITS, LESS INC TAX CHANGE

JUNE BOE EST

$4,8

60

$4,0

20 $4,5

26

$4,6

53

$4,7

26

$4,9

32

$5,1

40

$5,4

15

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

FY-2009

FY-2010

FY-2011

FY-2012

FY-2013

FY-2014

FY-2015

FY-2016

General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources(In Millions, With % of Change From Prior Year)

1.6%4.4% 4.2%

(17.3%)

OHLAP or ROADS Funding Not Removed

(Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax)

(TO BE UPDATED WITH OSU ECONOMETRIC FORECAST)

2.8%12.6%(6.7%)

ACTUALS Based on OSF 10-Yr Normalized Trend-Based Projections Less Deferred GP Gas Tax Credits, Less Pers Inc Tax Rate Change

5.4%

JUNE BOE ESTIMATE