St Helens Bus Network Review - Merseytravel

St Helens Bus Network Review

12 Month Impact Analysis

Mike Cloherty Bus Development Officer

May 2018

St Helens Bus Network Review: 12 Month Impact Analysis

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Executive Summary The St Helens Network Review was implemented on 4th September 2016.

Expenditure pre and post review period

Pre-Review Post-Review Difference of

Total net costs of Merseytravel Support £2,175,699.92 £1,874,223.80 -£301,476.12 -14%

Total bus passenger numbers (supported and commercial) pre and post review period


Total passengers 10,062,779 10,356,075 +293296 +2.9%

Total bus passenger numbers supported (inc. Deminimis) pre and post review


Total passengers 591,532 380,316 -211,216 -35%

Total supported bus passenger numbers per service (not inc. deminimis) pre and post review

Service Number Pre-Review Post-Review Difference %

17 22674 32503 +9829 +43%

36 > 30 12304 11216 -1088 -9%

33 - 11216 - -

35E - 29328 - -

356 > 38A 27395 31889 +4494 +16%

60 - 4123 - -

111 43877 1497 -42380 -96%

137 81990 29197 -52793 -65%

140 - 22607 - -

141 30377 19205 -11172 -37%

152 38158 30031 -8127 -22%

153 - 7820 - -

156 Mon Sat Daytime - 69822 - -

156 Evening and Sunday 25781 24718 -1063 -4%

602 13443 9365 -4078 -30%

603 50713 33647 -17066 -33%

Key aspects of this review;

The network has been made simpler for passengers to understand.

Evening services have been amended, where possible, to reflect the daytime service

provision.


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There has been a reduction in the spend for supported services but an increase in overall

passenger numbers.

There has been an increase in patronage of the commercial network which may be as a

result of a requirement to interchange possibly due to changes to previous network.

Background The St Helens Network Review was implemented on 4th September 2016 following a period of

review and public/stakeholder consultation. It was the second area of the Liverpool City Region Bus

Network to be reviewed following the Kirkby Review in July 2016.

The bus network on Merseyside had not been assessed holistically for a number of years, with

services being considered and revised on a piecemeal basis, and the St Helens Review allowed

commercial and supported provision to be considered as one. The opportunity was also taken

through revised scheduling to align the evening network to what was in place of a daytime,

therefore easier for passengers to understand.

With a reduced budget for providing supported bus services, it was important to consider how

increasingly limited public resources could be focussed where there is most need. The aim was to

ensure that, where possible, everybody was within 400m of a bus service. This may not give people

the direct service they previously had, but allows them to access the bus network. The advantage St

Helens has is a town centre that is relatively central within the borough and has a good, safe bus

facility in which to make connecting journeys.

The maps below show how the daytime bus network in St Helens would have looked without any

financial support from Merseytravel, and then how it changed once the proposed Merseytravel

services were added. The pink shadings highlight which areas were over 400m from a bus service

before the consultation period, though following customer feedback some further changes were

made, such as provision to Liverpool Road.

Daytime without Merseytravel Support


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Daytime with Merseytravel Support

The maps below show how the evening bus network in St Helens would have looked without any

financial support from Merseytravel, and then how it changed once the proposed Merseytravel

services were added.

Evenings without Merseytravel Support

Evenings with Merseytravel Support


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Consultation

Initial consultation took place with Elected Members on 9th and 13th May 2016 followed by four

public events in St Helens between 18th and 31st May 2016 with approximately 600 people attending.

There were over 1600 hits on the Merseytravel website and 200 survey responses. 15 comments

were received.

Secondary consultation consisted of one public event on 28th June 2016 with approximately 700

attendees. There were 114 responses to the survey and 79 comments received.

Throughout the process bus operators supported the process and were in attendance at events and

engaged in the process

Merseytravel Contracted Service Performance The charts on the following pages show the performance of Merseytravel contracted services in

respect of their patronage and on-bus revenue (cash fares).

The green line on each chart highlights when the Review was implemented. For each service the average passenger per trip has been considered to see how patronage has

changed from when the changes were introduced to the end of the first 12 months. It is important

to take into account when looking at this average passenger per trip figure that it is based on all trips

in a four week period, with the earlier or later trips in a day likely to be carrying fewer people and

thereby affecting the overall average.


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Operates: Evenings & all day Sundays/Bank Holidays.

Change: Earlier journeys introduced on Sundays and given additional running time to improve reliability.

Patronage increase of 34% (March 16 period compared to March 17). This is in line with the slight increase in Sunday morning journeys, this increase continued

Average passenger per trip for period end 02/10/16 was 6 rising to 7 for period end 19/03/17 and rose to 10 at the end of the reporting period.

Revenue levels rose at the same level throughout .

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Service 17 St Helens - Widnes

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Operates: Evenings (daily).

Change: Service renumbered and rerouted in line with commercial change. Evening frequency increased to half hourly. Sunday daytime journeys withdrawn due to commercialisation.

Patronage increase of 35% (March 16 period compared to March 17 increase in journeys by improving the frequency to every 30 minutes, but it is worth noting that the service now only runs in the evening, with the more popular Sunday daytime journeys no longer operating under contract: evidence that a bus every 30 minutes is more appealing than a bus every 60 minutes.

Passenger numbers and revenue recovered increased and was sustained until the end of the reporting period.

It is not possible to make the same comparison including the daytime commercial service as Arriva’s Mon-Sat daytime service is a longer route than evenings & Sundays.

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Service 36 > 30 St Helens - Chain Lane

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Operates: Evenings (daily).

Change: New service introduced, replacing in part the withdrawn 196, following the same route as the daytime commercial 33 journeys.

No historic data to compare patronage prior to September 2016.

Average passenger per trip for period end 02/10/16 was 4 rising to 8 for period end 03/09/17. This is believed to be as a result of passengers becoming more aware that the daytime route now operates in the evenings.

Revenues remained rose in line with increased passengers.

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Service 33 St Helens - Sutton

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Change: New service introduced, replacing in part withdrawn 121/122, following the same route as the Mon-Sat daytime commercial 35 journeys between Gillars Green & St Helens Bus Station.

No historic data to compare patronage.

Average passenger per trip for period end 02/10/16 was 4 rising to 6 for periods up to 03/09/17. This is believed to be increasing as passengers become aware that the daytime route now operates in the evenings.

Revenue levels tended to remain constant.

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Service 35E St Helens - Gillars Green

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Change: New contracted service introduced replacing deminimis 356. Renumbered to 38A to reflect commercial provision and rerouted to operate via Kiln Lane in line with this. 1 evening journey withdrawn as it competed with commercial 38 journey, but 2 earlier Sunday morning journeys were introduced.

Initial Patronage increase of 11% (March 16 period compared to March 17) and stayed constant for the final six month period.

Whilst passenger levels remained constant through the 12 month period revenue levels dropped significantly and this remained the case until September 2017. This pattern has been experienced with other routes

Average passenger per trip for period end 02/10/16 was 10 rising to 13 for period end 03/09/17. When operated commercially the first journey on a Sunday from Rainford to St Helens was 10:57, but this was changed to 08:53.

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Service 356 > 38A St Helens - Rainford

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Change: New service introduced, replacing in part withdrawn 194/195, following the same route as Mon-Sat daytime commercial 60 journeys.


Average passenger per trip for period end 02/10/16 was 1 rising to 4 for period end 03/09/17..

In summary the investment of Merseytravel resource is not providing a service which has high numbers of passengers; however the cost is offset by the vehicles interworking with the busier 140 and 141 services. If this service did not operate then the bus would wait at St Helens Bus Station for 25 minutes and be even less efficient.

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Service 60 St Helens - Hard Lane

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Operates: 1 morning journey Mondays to Saturdays.

Change: Service 111 was withdrawn but this journey was identified as carrying school children with no alternative. Journey provided using 137 resource.

The average passenger per trip when the journey ran as part of the whole 111 service was 14. This has now dropped to an average of 4 per journey for the final six months of the review period with revenue levels reflecting this level of patronage.

Due to the decline in patronage we would look to review this journey as part of the 2019 St Helens Network Review.

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Service 111 Parr - Lea Green

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Operates: Monday to Saturday daytimes.

Change: Service 137/138 was withdrawn but the section between St Helens Bus Station and Billinge was retained due to several areas being beyond 400m from an alternative bus service. This equated to a 75% reduction in services.

No historic data to compare patronage as prior to the review this was a different service.

Average passenger per trip for first six months was 8 and for the second period this increased to 10.

Revenue levels remained static.

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Service 137 St Helens - Billinge

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Change: New evenings & Sundays service introduced following same route as daytime commercial 140, but extending to Rainhill Station. Covers various sections of withdrawn routes.


Average passenger per trip for period end 4th

September 2016 was 9 rising to 14 for period ending 3rd

September 2017.

Revenue levels increased 35 – 45% when both periods were compared.

On 10th

October 2017 the daytime commercial route was amended however the evening and Sundays route is as per the original route. This anomaly will be given consideration as part of the 2019 St Helens Network Review.

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Service 140 St Helens - Bold and Rainhill

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Change: Due to the revised interworking of vehicles to better utilise the vehicle resource, the service was curtailed to operate between St Helens & Newton-le-Willows and retimed.

Patronage decreased on this route for the entire period. Whilst journeys still depart from St Helens at approximately the same time, the journeys arriving in St Helens now do so 18 minutes later than before the Review. Journeys now only operate as far as Earlestown, no longer serving Newton-le-Willows, but this area was covered by enhanced provision from Arriva’s 34/34A service.

Average passenger per trip for period end 4th

September 2016 was 12 dropping to 4 for period end 03/09/17.

On 10th

October 2017 the daytime commercial route was amended however the evening and Sundays route is as per the original route. This anomaly will be given consideration as part of the 2019 St Helens Network Review.

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Service 141 St Helens - Newton Le Willows

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Change: Frequency reduced to every 2 hours but every journey was extended through to Edge Hill University and Ormskirk. Provides service to small areas beyond 400m. Resource allows the provision of the 153.

Patronage decrease of 21% (March 16 period compared to March 17), however it is worth noting that the provision reduced by 50%.

Average passenger per trip for year end 04/09/16 was 32 and this dropped to 25 for year ending 03/09/17

The figures may tend to reflect the academic term times of Edge Hill University.

Revenue figures display the same profile as passengers.

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Service 152 St Helens - Ormskirk

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Change: New service introduced replacing part of withdrawn 137/138 around Norley Drive due to part being beyond 400m from network.


Passenger and revenue levels showed a gradual increase.

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Service 153 St Helens - Eccleston

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Change: New contracted service introduced, replacing deminimis 156. Rerouted to travel via Haydock Industrial Estate rather than Liverpool Road, timetable co-ordinated with 157 between Garswood & Ashton, and extended down to new housing estate at Lea Green.

No historic data to compare against as route significantly different. Initially (compared to the old 156 service) there is a patronage increase of 33% (March 16 period compared to March 17).

These passenger numbers show a high level of patronage

Revenue levels took the same profile.

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Service 156 (Mon - Sat daytime) Lea Green - St Helens - Ashton T4547

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Change: Rerouted to operate via Haydock Industrial Estate in line with revised daytime journeys. Timetable altered.

Patronage increase of 12% (March 16 period compared to March 17). However it is worth noting the initial drop in revenue and patronage since the review date. This trend has been reversing since Christmas.

Average passenger per trip for period ending 4th

September 2016 was 9 rising to 10 for period ending 3rd

September 2017.

The initial drop in patronage following the implementation of the Review could be put down to the change in timetable; journeys changed to operate 20 minutes earlier so that they departed from Ashton or St Helens at the same time past each hour as the daytime journeys, so may no longer have been suitably timed for existing passengers. However, no complaints were received by Merseytravel regarding this.

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156 (evenings & Sun) St Helens - Ashton T4075B

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Change: Times revised.

Patronage decrease of 17% (March 16 period compared to March 17)

Average passenger per trip for period end 02/10/16 was 3 and this has dropped to 2 for the following year. Passenger levels have shown a slight increase which appears to be sustained to the end of the reporting period.

The initial drop in patronage following the implementation of the Review could be put down to the change in timetable; journeys changed to operate 20 minutes earlier, so may no longer have been suitably timed for existing passengers, however no complaints were received by Merseytravel regarding this.

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Service 602 (Evenings & Sun) Ashton - Newton Le Willows

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Change: No longer served Garswood and diverted via Liverpool Road in place of 156.

Patronage decrease of 31% (March 16 period compared to March 17) which continued to September 2017

The drop in patronage following the implementation of the Review is likely due to it no longer serving the Garswood area.

Average passenger per trip for period end 02/10/16 was 4.7 dropping to 3 for period ending 3rd

Sept 2017.

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Service 603 (Mon - Sat Daytime) Ashton - Newton Le Willows

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Contract Impact Assessment


Annual contract costs £1,608,731.00 £1,274,496.00 £334,235.00 -21%

Annual revenue £287,727.08 £178046.70 £109680.38 -38%

Net Contract Costs £1,321,003.92 £1,113,160.80 £207,843.12 -16%

Annual deminimis costs £854,696.00 £761,063.00 £93,633.00 -11%

Total net costs £2,175,699.92 £1,874,223.80 £301,476.12 -14%

Total net costs inc Conc & Pre-paid £1,508,675.74

Annual Contracted Patronage 591,532 380316 211216 -36%

Annual Contracted Scheduled Mileage 808,841 624,977 183,864 -23%

There has been a significant reduction in the patronage and on-bus revenue on Merseytravel

contracted services since the implementation of the St Helens Network Review, however the 211k

reduction in annualised contracted patronage may be accounted for by the following:

Withdrawn 137/138 carried 179,894 passengers per annum pre-review with the revised 137

carrying only 29,197; thus a loss of 149,697.

Withdrawn 111 carried 43,877 passengers per annum.

Now commercial (with deminimis) service 12 carried 46,895 passengers per annum.

The above accounts for 220,391 passengers per annum and approximately £120k of on-bus revenue.

Merseytravel is now providing services where there is a greater need rather than greater numbers,

and the premise for withdrawing those services was that there were alternative services available

provided by either commercial services at no cost, or by alternative supported services (part or fully

tendered). This reduced the reliance on publicly funded services whilst retaining provision in most

cases and also retaining the patronage.

By utilising this approach the aim was to ensure that the network reached contemporary needs, was

clearer and simpler to understand, and was within Merseytravel’s budgetary constraints. However,

this did not mean that services remained the same, and there is now a greater need to interchange

which unfortunately makes some journeys less convenient or attractive.


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Overall St Helens Area Bus Patronage By compiling patronage data for all of Merseytravel’s general supported bus services with the

patronage data for the commercial services of Arriva, Hatton’s, Halton, Stagecoach & Cumfybus, it is

possible to predict what impact the network review has had on overall bus usage in the St Helens

area.

12 months prior to Network Review: 10,062,779 passengers carried

12 months post Network Review: 10,356,075 passengers carried

Increase of 2.9%

(Data includes all commercial and supported services with the exception of Arriva’s 320, 329 & 352 due to

their operating cross-boundary, Stagecoach’s 10A service, and buses that serve schools.)


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Operator Patronage Share

Hatton’s have seen a marginal decrease despite taking on service 12 (St Helens Town Centre –

Ravenhead Retail Park) commercially and an increase in patronage on service 140, possibly linked to

the withdrawal of the 111. This may have provided an increase in % but the small decrease could be

as a result of Arriva’s increase in passenger numbers. For example due to the withdrawal of the

137/138 people have to make connecting journeys to Whiston Hospital and are likely to use the 10A.

The increase in share for Arriva may have occurred as a result of passengers transferring from

withdrawn or reduced services. For example the withdrawal of the 137/138 and reduction in 152

provision will have seen passengers move onto service 38 or 10A. Whilst those services with reduced

90%

4% 2%

4%

St Helens patronage pre 04/09/16

Arriva

Hattons

Halton

Cumfybus

91%

3% 2%

4%

St Helens patronage post 04/09/16

Arriva

Hattons

Halton

Cumfybus


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frequencies have seen a reduction in patronage, those with an increase, such as the 32/32A, have

seen a rise.

Future Changes The tender round for the renewal of the post-review Merseytravel services in the St Helens area was

completed, with all services retained. In addition following feedback from passengers and elected

members, a new Sunday daytime service was introduced in September 2017 on the 37 (St Helens –

Eccleston) providing the area with a Sunday service to enhance the current level of provision. This

was able to be achieved by utilising the resource of the 17 & 30, thereby introducing an additional

service at minimal cost and being effective in Merseytravel’s usage of resource.

Conclusions Higher frequency services are generally more attractive to both existing and potential bus users,

hence the high levels of patronage on service 10/10A where the frequency meets demand and the

demand deserves the frequency. When a frequency is reduced there is evidence to support the fact

that patronage will also reduce, and this has occurred on several services that were revised during

the review. The opposite is also true, with services such as the 30 and 32/32A seeing an increase in

usage due to the additional journeys now available.

Despite some loss of links and the withdrawal or re-routing of services, the vast majority of residents

in St Helens remain within 400m of a bus service despite a significant reduction in the amount that

Merseytravel spends on supported bus services.

Although there has not been a reduction in the overall number of bus passengers, it is difficult to

determine what numbers are no longer making a journey by bus. It is inevitable that some will have

found alternative means or will make fewer frequent trips, which would equate to a loss in

passenger numbers, but this may have been countered by people now having to make connecting

journeys – therefore registering twice and balancing the pre & post review figures.

There were a number of issues that arose following the St Helens Review and the intervening period,

and the main and most recurring ones are:

Loss of link from Eccleston to Prescot & Whiston Hospital

Loss of link from Rainhill to St Helens Town Centre & St Helens Hospital

Change of provision along Liverpool Road, Haydock; no longer direct into St Helens Town

Centre

Access to St Helens Cemetery/Crematorium (re-route of 38)

Hattons amendment to 140 and 141 commercial routes which have not been reflected in the

evening and Sunday supported services

As a result of the consultation process most of these issues had already been identified and

considered in the context of the 2016 network review process and the context of provision being

available in those areas. However, they do remain open for consideration should a value for money

option be identified.

St Helens Bus Network Review - Merseytravel

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