S&T Foresight & Horizon scanning

Influencing R&D priorities

Netherlands

Victor van Rij – Ministry OCW - Netherlands

Presentation for TIP- RIHR

OECD workshop

Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting

15-16 September 2008

OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting

S&T Foresight & Horizon scanning

Influencing R&D priorities

• Position Foresight and Horizon scanning

in the R&D cycle

• Horizon scanning

• Possible systematic approach to influence

the research agenda to future societal

challenges and scientific opportunities

OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting

EXECUTION

R&D

PROGRAMS

R&D PROGRAM

PRIORITY SETTING

AND DESIGN

NEW R&D

QUESTIONS

CHALLENGES

R&D

PROGRAM

ASSESSMENT

R&D

OUTPUT

Research

programmingcyclus

Research

programmingcyclus

International

New insight

New technology

Human resources

Expectations

International science

& (scientific) educationNew insight

New technology

Applications

Solutions

Experts

Society

Economy

Short term

Long term

Problems &

Opportunities

Foresight

Horizon

Scanning

Planning

OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting

Public Funds for Research Netherlands

• 3 to 4 billion € a year

• 77 % basic or institutional funding

• 23 % project - program funding

• Foresight and Horizon scanning supports

external and internal decisions on the questions

to answer by R&D

S&T Foresight

in the Netherlands

Societal oriented thematic S&T foresight (COS-Min Ed Cult Science -

others) : ocean farming, key technologies, health and nature, water

management, energy, bio-fuels, food and health, data mining etc

Science oriented S&T foresight (Royal Academy) : bio-geology, bio-

fysics, nanotechnology, hydrology, social sciences

Economically oriented S&T foresight (Min Economic Affairs) :

Technology radar, Dynamo

OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting

Reasons for the S&T Foresight

• Development of new R&D and Innovation programs (on themes that are

already identified)

• Priority setting (within the scope of the foresight) ,supporting decision

makers

• Creating new (networks) on new emerging areas

• Advocacy

OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting

Foresight & Horizon scanning Netherlands

Experience former round of foresight

• Mainly thematic/discipline foresight some key technologies

+ Good for aligning activities/actors on theme

+ programming “known” new themes

+ some economic oriented priority setting

- Ad hoc character

- Risk of tunnel visions

- Some new emerging issues stay out of scope

- Societal problems require multi and trans disciplinary answers and sometimes just policy answers

Foresight & Horizon scanning Netherlands

New concept 2005 pilot horizon scan

Based on international study of national-foresight

Wide scope foresight – Horizon scan (UK, Japan)

+ Better scoping thematic/discipline foresight

+ Widening scopes – awareness on complex

interactions – new emerging issues between

disciplines and domains

OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting

Definition of Horizon scanning

(or wide scope foresight)

• “The systematic examination of a very wide variety of potential (future)

problems, threats, opportunities and likely future developments , Also the

ones which are at the margins of current thinking and planning.

• Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, weak

signals, as well as persistent problems or trends. Overall, horizon

scanning is intended to improve the robustness of policies and evidence

base (Defra – UK)”

• Methods: Literature, brainstorms , different participative processes,

scenario’s, conferences etc

• Participation -- democracy ---acceptance of outcomes--- more angles

(who is an expert??)

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Sustainability of society and

ecology

Expectations of

Opportunities /

solutions

Coming from:

Expectations of

threats/ problems

caused by or

coming from:

Human action/

Brainpower

Physical

environment

With expected

large impact on:

Human action/

Social environment

Physical

environment

Netherlands horizon scanning in a nutshell

Certainties/uncertainties/ Key issues/ questions to research

needed for strategic decision making

OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting

Common desires

Values

Common desires – Sustainability :

• Biological dimension: Health, Survival, reproduction and longevity, ecological environment, biodiversity

• Economic financial dimension: Welfare (production, distribution)

• Social dimension: Wellbeing (working and living conditions, social cohesion etc)

• Cultural dimension: Self realization, level of education, emancipation,ethics , right of animals

• Governmental, Juridical dimension (human rights, democracy, freedom of communication and religion etc)

• Good (global) neighbourhood ship

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4. Evaluation and

Weighing of problems and

opportunities

List P

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Lijst O

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5. Coupling of opportunities

and problems through creative

sessions and consultations

3. IdentificationProblems and opportunities

10. Report withRecommendations for

-Knowledge and strategicagenda

1. Literature Study

2. Consultation of

nationalInternational experts

6. Formation of Clusters

and connections

domains + disciplines

7. Cluster descriptions

9. Knowledge and strategicQuestions per cluster

8. Essays per cluster

35

4 6

9

10

12

8

7

Website

Netherlands horizon scanning in a nutshell

R&D agenda

Policy agenda

OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting

PHYSICAL ENVIRONMENT:

1 ATMOSPHERE Unknown consequences of climate change [31; 37; 43; 57; 61; 68; 72; 96]. FR36

2ATMOSPHERE (Un) known consequences of emissions into the atmosphere

[31] CO2/CFK/Hydrogen/Methylhydrates/dust etc

3 ATMOSPHERE Persistent air pollution in urban areas [23; 179]

4 HYDROSPHERE Diffuse water pollution

4a

Pollution of the sea [31; 57; 72; 97; I18]

5HYDROSPHERE Global water shortage may give rise to political instability

[22; 23; 31;57;98]

6 HYDROSPHERE Flooding of rivers and sea [69]

7 HYDROSPHERE Little flexibility left in the use of (national) water supply in dense populated areas.

8GEO-SPHERE More vulnerability for natural disasters [57; 69; 101] in dense populated areas (earth

quakes, delta river plane flooding risk)

9 GEO-SPHERE Exhaustion of , Shortage of fossil fuels [22; 28; 29; 31; 41; 66] FR37 rare minerals

10 BIO-SPHERE Loss of live resources [22;31;40; 57;61;68;74]

11 BIO-SPHERE Disruption of fertility [111; I10; I11; I18]

12

BIO-SPHERE Infectious diseases constitute a permanent threat (in particular dense populations [22;

WHO in 31; 57; 68; 150; 151]but also for crops, cattle etc, New health threats FR38

resistance increase of pathogens UK 146/147/148

13SPACE Lack of space (related to urbanisation) [57; 69] Loss of space to draught or permanent

flooding (B9) and contamination

14 OUTER SPACE Exponentially expanding space debris [I9]

15 OUTER SPACE Asteroid impact [31]

16 OUTER SPACE Solar (and other) gamma bursts

17 OUTER SPACE Contact with extraterrestrial life.

Result of a scan (1)

Part of LIST OF PROBLEMS /THREATS/

Education, research and development

31

EDUCATION (general) An educational system that can keep up with the exponential increase in

knowledge worldwide ,by data mining and increased attention on

languages and culture knowledge of upcoming economies on different

school level

32 EDUCATION (general) Creativity in education [5; 121; 122;]

34 EDUCATION New educational and career models [5]

34a EDUCATION Open sources of education (UK158)

34b EDUCATION Innovative learning environments (FORS 14 FINL)

35BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Open sources for innovation and government (2) [207]

36BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Taking advantage of shifts in paradigms [35,156,157] search for

breakthroughs

36a

BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Data mining and electronic communication for improved exchange of

knowledge and discoveries (FORS 4 GR)

36bBUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Improving the governance of European R&D system

(FORS 7 FR)(FORS 21 FINL)

36cBUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Development of trans national innovation networks clusters (FORS30

GERM)

36dBUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Horizon scanning as a tool for identification of new issues for S&T (FORS

40 NETH)

36e BUSINESS OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Culture, religion as drivers in S&T development and appreciation of S&T

outcomes

37 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Threats as leitmotif for innovation. [208]

38 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Promising new fields of science [27; 31; 132-147]

38aSCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Environnemental technologies (FORS 16 FINL) – clean waters etc.

39 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Converging technologies (CT). [194]

40 SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CT to develop human cognition and communication

Part of LISTS OF OPPORTUNITIES

Robotica/interconnectivity

LaborConverging

technologies

Upcoming

Economies

Competition

cooperation

Demography

Energy

Nano

?

Control

Society

Orwell 1984

Changing

(National)

Economy

EducationBio

Info

Ambient

technology

Social Science &

Psychology

Capital/Money

Applications:

transport ,

entertainment

etc

Rare materials

Cogno

QUESTIONS OF ECO-SUSTAINABILITY

QUESTIONS OF ECONOMIC & SOCIAL -SUSTAINABILITY

ETHIC & DEMOCRATIC-SUSTAINABILITY

Higher

Education/

Research

policy

AutomationRobotics

Interconnectivity

Health

& care

Foresight & Horizon scanning Netherlands

Experience pilot Horizon scan till now:

• Complex Output

• Clusters to be worked on further

• Better scoping thematic/discipline foresight

• International cooperation (UK/DK/..)

• Use in N.W.O strategic plan, Demand regional authorities , other Ministries,

• Other countries

Rationale HS towards R&D

• identify new challenging issues for policy, research, development and innovation

• Identify plausible cross links (enhancers, inhibitors, multipliers) between future issues (from different parts of the horizon) with a potential major impact

• Identify new “trans-disciplinary and /or policy domain” crossing sets of issues for further focused foresight (which makes it possible to improve the scoping of these foresight activities) and or research

• identify knowledge gaps (relevant for resolving future problems or for using potential opportunities)

OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting

Rationale HS towards Policy

• Widening the scope for policy and decision makers

• base for resilient ,cross departmental policies

• alert policy makers on forgotten and emerging (new) risks and opportunities

• stimulate the use of horizon scanning in decision making on different levels, to widen their scope and to envision the future in a more systematic way

• built horizon scanning and foresight capacity into their organisation

OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting

Characteristics of HS• No fixed time horizon

– Beyond the usual timescale as far as you can see signals

– No fixed timeframe

• Wide scope– Across disciplinary and departmental borders/looking for

(unexpected) interaction of scanned issues

• Defensive and opportunity orientation– Early risk identification/ threats to common values

– Opportunities contributing to achieve common values

• Where others do not go– Margins of current thinking/ weak signals

– But looking at central societal needs

• Systematic and Cumulative– Categories (STEEP)

– Repetitive assessment

OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting

Future of R&D influencing

• Wide scope foresight (horizon scanning) to develop visions on new emerging potentials of and new emerging external questions for R&D , setting (inter) national priorities

• Focused participatory foresight on themes, questions coming from the HS to align key stakeholders on questions and potentials

R&D influencing

• Revolving funds for initiating

multidisciplinary cooperation and

multidisciplinary RDI programs to cope

with future challenges identified in the HS

and foresight

• Diffuse influence through participative

processes, new tools as wiki , blogs etc

National

scan

Preparation

International

creative workshop with a

wide variety of expertise and

stakeholders

International

Stakeholder meetings

International

scan

EU-work

shops

Preparation Trans

national

relevant projects

EU level

Blue sky etc

HS coordination group

ORGANISATION OF THE JOINT EU- HORIZONSCAN

Selection

scoping

grand challenges

EU

foresight

Transnational

foresight

National

scan

National

scan

Other National

Contributors

Recommendations

EC-Policy

Research and innovation

OECD Enhancing Research Performance Through Evaluation and Priority Setting