SRI annual meeting - BP...2013/11/11 · BP may apply Project 20K technology and the expected...
Transcript of SRI annual meeting - BP...2013/11/11 · BP may apply Project 20K technology and the expected...
11th November 2013
SRI annual meeting
Skarv FPSO, North Sea
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Biographies
Dev SanyalExecutive Vice President and Group Chief of Staff
Dev Sanyal is the accountable executive for all of BP’s corporate activities in strategy and long-term planning, risk, economics, competitor intelligence, government and political affairs, policy and group integration and governance.
Dev Sanyal joined BP in 1989 and has held a variety of international roles in London, Athens, Istanbul, Vienna and Dubai. He was appointed chief executive, BP Eastern Mediterranean Fuels in 1999. In 2002, he moved to London as chief of staff of BP’s worldwide downstream businesses. In November 2003, he was appointed chief executive officer of Air BP. In June 2006, he was appointed head of the group chief executive’s office. He was appointed group vice president and group treasurer in 2007. During this period, he was also chairman of BP Investment Management Ltd and accountable for the group’s aluminium interests. In January 2012, he became executive vice president, and group chief of staff.
Bob FryarExecutive Vice President, Safety and Operational Risk
Bob is responsible for strengthening safety, operational risk management, and the systematic management of operations across the BP corporate group. He is Group Head of Safety and Operations, with accountability for group-level disciplines including projects, operations, engineering, health, safety, security, and environment. In this capacity, he looks after group-wide operating management, system implementation, capability programs and audit..
Bob Fryar has 27 years’ experience in the oil and gas industry having joined Amoco Production Company in 1985. Most recently Bob was chief executive officer for BP Angola and in his prior role vice president of operations performance unit for BP Trinidad. Prior to joining BP Trinidad in January 2003, Bob served in a variety of engineering and management positions in the onshore US and deepwaterGulf of Mexico including petroleum engineer, field manager, operations manager, resource manager, asset manager and delivery manager. In addition, he worked on the Vastar integration team.
Biographies
Dr Mike DalyExecutive Vice President, Exploration
Dr Mike Daly is accountable for the leadership of BP’s access, exploration and resource appraisal activities and the long-term replacement of BP’s resource base.
Dr Daly joined BP Exploration in 1986, working as a technical specialist in structural geology. In the early 1990’s he joined BP’s global basin analysis group that set the direction of BP’s exploration strategy. This work has underpinned BP’s exploration and reserves replacement performance for two decades. Following this strategic work he has occupied a series of exploration business and functional roles in South America, the North Sea and new business development globally.
In 2000 he became the president for BP’s Middle East and South Asia businesses. In July 2006, Dr Daly was appointed BP’s Head of Exploration and New Business Development and in October 2010 was appointed executive vice president, exploration.
Christina VercherePresident and Chairman, BP Canada
Christina Verchere was appointed President and Chairman, BP Canada Energy Group ULC, effective April 1, 2012.
Ms. Verchere, a member of BP’s Exploration and Production Executive Team, was formerly VP Upstream Program Management Office in Houston where she successfully led the Upstream business through a major re-organization.
Prior to this, Ms. Verchere held a number of key business roles, including leadership roles in North American Gas, executive office roles, commercial leadership roles in both North American Gas, the Gulf of Mexico, the North Sea and a range of economics and financial positions.
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Cautionary statementForward-looking statements - cautionary statement
The presentations and the associated slides and discussion contain certain forecasts, projections and forward-looking statements – that is, statements related to future, not past events – with respect to the financial condition, results of operation and businesses of BP and certain of the plans and objectives of BP with respect to these items. In particular, among other statements, certain statements regarding expectations in respect of future global, OECD and non-OECD demographic and economic trends; expectations regarding future trends in global, OECD and non-OECD energy demand; BP’s prospects for growing value in the future; BP’s prospects for delivering the anticipated increase in operating cash flow by more than 50% by 2014 versus 2011 and expectations regarding material growth in BP’s operating cash flows beyond 2014; expectations regarding BP’s future distributions to shareholders; expectations regarding BP’s future level of capital investment; BP’s future per annum divestment plans, including plans to divest a further $10 billion of assets by the end of 2015; the expected number of exploration wells to be completed in 2013; the expected timing of start-ups of certain major projects; prospects for the level of operating cash margins of new upstream projects in the future; the expected timing of start-up of the remaining refinery upgrade units at the Whiting refinery; the expected timing for the completion of outstanding Bly Report recommendations; expectations regarding global trends in exploration; the expected amount of conventional hydrocarbons that could be discovered in the future; BP’s plans for a future seismic imaging campaign in Nova Scotia; prospects for certain seismic technology to sustain existing deepwater provinces and to assist in or lead to further discoveries; the number of major upstream projects expected to come onstream by the end of 2014; expectations regarding Project 20K™, including the timing of the definition and delivery of key systems and of Front End Engineering Design, the regions where BP may apply Project 20K™ technology and the expected volume of BP’s current and future resources globally that could be accessed by Project 20K™ technology; the prospects for, expected timing and composition of future projects including expected Final Investment Decisions, start up, completion, timing of production, level of production and margins; and expectations regarding the prospective use of process affected water at Sunrise; are all forward looking in nature.
By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will or may occur in the future. Actual results may differ from those expressed in such statements, depending on a variety of factors including the actions of regulators and the timing of the receipt of governmental and regulatory approvals; the timing of bringing new fields onstream and of project start-ups; the timing of and prospects for ramp up of major projects and higher margin assets; the timing and nature of maintenance outages and turnaround activity; the impact of reserves reviews; the timing and nature of divestments; future levels of industry product supply; demand and pricing; OPEC quota restrictions; PSA effects; operational problems; economic and financial conditions generally or in various countries and regions; political stability and economic growth in relevant areas of the world; changes in laws and governmental regulations; regulatory or legal actions including court decisions, the types of enforcement action pursued and the nature of remedies sought or imposed; the impact on our reputation following the Gulf of Mexico oil spill; exchange rate fluctuations; development and use of new technology and advances in technological efficiency; the success or otherwise of partnering; the actions of competitors, trading partners, creditors, rating agencies and others; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; changes in public expectations and other changes to business conditions; wars and acts of terrorism, cyber-attacks or sabotage; and other factors discussed under “Principal risks and uncertainties” in our Stock Exchange Announcement for the period ended 30 June 2013 and under “Risk factors” in our Annual Report and Form 20-F 2012 as filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Statement of Assumptions - The operating cash flow projection for 2014 in this presentation assumes an oil price of $100 per barrel and a Henry Hub gas price of $5/mmBtu in 2014. The projection has been adjusted to (i) remove TNK-BP dividends from 2011 operating cash flow and 2014 estimated operating cash flow; (ii) include BP’s estimate of Rosneft dividends in 2014; and (iii) include in 2014 estimated operating cash flow the impact of payments in respect of the settlement of all criminal and securities claims with the U.S. government. The projection does not reflect any cash flows relating to other liabilities, contingent liabilities, settlements or contingent assets arising from the Gulf of Mexico oil spill which may or may not arise at that time. As disclosed in the Stock Exchange Announcement for the period ended 30 September 2013, we are not today able to reliably estimate the amount or timing of a number of contingent liabilities.
Cautionary note to US investors – This presentation uses terms, such as “net resources” and “resource base”, and contains references to non-proved resources and production outlooks based on non-proved resources that the SEC’s rules prohibit us from including in our filings with the SEC. U.S. investors are urged to consider closely the disclosures in our Form 20-F, SEC File No. 1-06262. This form is available on our website at www.bp.com. You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling 1-800-SEC-0330 or by logging on to their website at www.sec.gov.
Tables and projections in this presentation are BP projections unless otherwise stated.
Stock Exchange Announcement: For further information on BP’s results, please see our Stock Exchange Announcement for the period ended 30 September 2013.
November 2013
Agenda
14.30 Group context and strategy- Dev Sanyal, Executive Vice President and Group Chief of Staff
14.50 Managing safety & operational risk - processes- Bob Fryar, Executive Vice President of Safety & Operational Risk
15.15Case studies: how we manage non-technical riskGlobal trends influencing exploration- Mike Daly, Executive Vice President of Exploration
15.45 Canadian oil sands- Christina Verchere, President and Chairman BP Canada
16.10 Break
16.30 Q&A session
17.30 Finish
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Dev SanyalExecutive Vice President &Group Chief of Staff
Group context and strategy
Seismic data in the HIVE, Sunbury
Population and income growth…
Source: Energy Outlook 2030 7
0
3
6
9
12
1990 2010 2030
OECDNon-OECD
0
2
4
6
8
1990 2010 2030
OECDNon-OECD
0
25
50
75
100
1990 2010 2030
OECDNon-OECD
Billion
Population GDP
Trillion $2011 Billion toe
Primary energy
8
Industry outlook
OECD
Non-OECD
Billion toe
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1990 2010 2030
OECD
Non-OECD
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1990 2010 2030
Other
Power generation
Transport
By primary use By fuelBy region
Oil
Coal
Gas
Billion toe Billion toe
Industry
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1990 2010 2030
HydroNuclear
Renew.*
Oil
Coal
Gas
*Includes biofuels
Source: Energy Outlook 2030
Moving BP forward
Clear strategy to grow shareholder valueGrowth in operating cash flow Disciplined capital expenditure
Progressive dividend
Whiting, USA
Skarv
West Chirag
Hose
The right footprint – safer, focused, more quality
Playing to our strengthsExploration re-loaded
Distinctive Upstream portfolio: deepwater, giant fields, gas value chains
World class Downstream
Unique participation in Russia showing promise9
Playing to our strengthsStrategic progress in 2013
With governments and partners
• Rosneft transaction complete
• Growing partnership in India
Reloading exploration• 16-18 wells this
year, new access in Brazil, Norway and China
• Four discoveries : two in India, one in Egypt, one with partners in Angola
Leading explorer
New major projects• Atlantis North
Expansion, Angola LNG and North Rankin 2 started up in 2013
• Chirag Oil start-up due by end 2013
• Five projects on-track to come online in 2014
Distinctive Upstream portfolio
Expanding cash generating capability
• Whiting Modernisation Project on-track for 2013 completion
• 95.2% Solomon refining availability
• US refinery divestments complete
Technology
Developing leading technologies
• New supercomputing center
• Next generation drilling units
• Real-time well monitoring
Strong relationships
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World class Downstream
Delivering on our 10-point plan
What you can expect1. Relentless focus on safety and managing
risk
2. Play to our strengths
3. Stronger and more focused
4. Simpler and more standardized
5. More visibility and transparency to value
What you can expect6. Active portfolio management to continue
7. New upstream projects onstream with unit operating cash margins double the 2011 average(1)
8. Generate around 50% more annually in operating cash flow by 2014 versus 2011 at $100/bbl(2)
9. Half of incremental operating cash for re-investment, half for other purposes including distributions
10. Strong balance sheet
What you can measure
(1) Assuming a constant $100/bbl oil price and excluding TNK-BP(2) See Statement of Assumptions under Cautionary Statement 11
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Bob FryarExecutive Vice President of Safety & Operational Risk
Managing safety & operational risk - processes
East Azeri platform
Bob Fryar, EVP S&OR
• 28 years’ experience, joined the company in 1985
• Previous roles
− EVP Production
− CEO BP Angola
− COO Atlantic LNG, Trinidad
− VP Operations, Trinidad
− Onshore US and GOM operations and leadership roles
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A safer, stronger BP
It is based on three principles that guide our efforts in a prioritised, multi-year programme. They are to strive for:
• Deep capability and a safe operating culture across all levels of BP
• Continuing to embed OMS as the way BP operates
• Self and independent assurance that confirms conduct of operating
BP’s approach to safety and operational risk management integrates our operating management system (OMS) and our values
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OMS is our framework for operations and driver for continuous improvement, as businesses work to progressively align local processes with key OMS “essentials”
Further embedding OMS as the way BP works
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Risk management framework
• Day to day operational risk management happens through processes within the local operating management system
• Health of barriers
• Risk action plans
− Multi-year, risk prioritised at the site
BP-wide risk management framework
Processes within local OMS
HAZOP LOPA
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The “three lines of defence”
Starting at the bottom of the triangle…
• Operating organizations are expected to verify for themselves that their activities have been completed as intended and are effective
• S&OR sets requirements and conducts assurance to test business conformance with them
• Group audit provides independent audit reports on the design and operating effectiveness of selected activities in the first and second lines of defence
A group-wide three tier approach to oversight of safety and operational risk management is in place and improving.
AuditAudit
S&OR Functional Assurance
S&OR Functional Assurance
Self Verification Self Verification
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Targeted capability programmes seek to reinforce values and build leadership and operational capacity to achieve consistently safe, compliant, reliable operations.
How S&OR adds value - building organizational capability
Senior Level leaders
Mid Level leaders
Frontline leaders
Technicians
OperationsAcademy
ManagingOperations Operating
Essentials(Site-based) Le
adin
g in
the
field
(Site-based)
Exem
plar
(Site-based)
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Results – as of 3Q13
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Bly Report Recommendations
Further embed in OMS
Activity delivery
Legend
Recommendation completion (Est.)
Recommendation completed*
COMPLETE
1H 1H 2H2012 2013
2H
BP’s drilling operating practicesand management systems
1 Update and clarify cementing guidelines
2 Update requirements for BOP configuration
3 Update requirements for negative pressure tests and lock-down rings
4 Update practice on pressure, including contingency and testing procedures
5 Strengthen incident reporting standards for well control and well integrity
8 Strengthen the technical authority’s role in cementing and zonal isolation
9 Enhance D&C competency programs for key operational and leadership positions
10 Develop advanced deepwater well control training
11 Establish BP in-house expertise for subsea BOP and BOP control systems
13 Strengthen BP’s rig audit process to improve closure and verification
14 Establish KPIs for well integrity/control and rig safety-critical equipment
6 Propose recommended practice for foam cement testing to API
7 Assess risk management and MOC processes for life cycle of D&C activities
12 Request IADC to develop subsea engineering certification
20141H 2H
20151H 2H
20161H
15 Require drilling contractors to implement auditable integrity monitoring system
COMPLETE
COMPLETE
COMPLETE
COMPLETE
COMPLETE
COMPLETE
COMPLETE
COMPLETE
COMPLETE
COMPLETE
*Completed: reported as complete subject to verification as closed.
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Bly Report Recommendations
Contractor and service provider oversight and assurance
16 Assess cementing service provider capabilities
17 Confirm well control and monitoring practices are defined and applied
18 Require hazard and operability reviews for surface gas/drilling fluid
19 Include study of all surface system hydrocarbon vents in all HAZOPs
21 Strengthen BP’s requirements for BOP testing by drilling contractors
22 Strengthen BP’s requirements for BOP maintenance by drilling contractors
23 Set minimum requirements for drilling contractors’ MOC for subsea BOPs
24 Develop clear plan for ROV intervention for each of BP’s operating regions
25 Require drilling contractors to verify BSR shearing performance capability
26 Include testing and verification of revised BOP standards in rig audit
20 Establish minimum levels of redundancy and reliability for BOP systems
1H 1H 2H
2012 2013
2H
2014
1H 2H
2015
1H 2H
2016
1HCOMPLETE
COMPLETE
COMPLETE
COMPLETE
Further embed in OMS
Activity delivery
Legend
Recommendation completion (Est.)
Recommendation completed**Completed: reported as complete subject to verification as closed.
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• Leadership
• Systematic operating
• Checks and Balances
• Vigilance
In summary
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Mike DalyExecutive Vice President, Exploration
Global trends influencingexploration
Seismic vessel in the Ceduna Basin, Australia
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Global trends influencing exploration
Future resource trends
• Deepwater: capturing the remaining resource.
• Arctic: unexplored rock volumes of the ice-bound offshore
• ‘Re-exploration’ of onshore (and shallow-water) basins:
− Frontiers, deepening, tight reservoirs in old giants, shale ‘sweet spots’
Future challenges and technology trends
• Striving for the perfect seismic image
• Management of pressures in excess of 20k psi(1)
• Ice management, spill response, community and environmental impact
• Transformation of flow rates from unconventionals
(1) Thousand pounds per square inch
2004: Yoloten67 bnboe
0
1
2
3
4
5
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Tn
bo
e
Onshore North America Middle East (On/Offshore) Onshore Latin America
Onshore C.I.S. Onshore Africa Onshore RoW
Shelf (ex Middle East) Arctic Deepwater
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Global discovered resource and yet-to-find
Source: IHS, EIA and CAPP (Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers) for onshore North America data
Conventional yet-to-find: ~ 1 tnboe
1948: Ghawar176 bnboe
1936-40: Supergiants in Venezuela, Iran, Kuwait
1927: Kirkuk26 bnboe
1971: North Field193 bnboe
Conventional discovered: 4.5 tnboe
Deepwater Arcticsub-ice
Onshore Shelf
1992: Qatar Arch103 bnboe
1979: Troll10 bnboe
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Material new plays of the past decade – all deepwater
GoM Palaeogene
South Atlantic pre-salt
Angola Congo Fan
East Mediterraneanpre-Messinian
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East India gas
East Africa gas
Material new plays characterised by:
• Deeper reservoirs in existing provinces
• The outer margins (‘medial and distal fans’) of deltas
Source: IHS EDIN
5.5
50
3
9
9
Industry deepwater discovered volumes (bnboe)
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Application of seismic technology
• Industry-first WATS(1) survey, contributing to a doubling of resource at Mad Dog through its appraisal programme
• WATS has since become the industry standard, contributing to Palaeogene success
• Now being applied beyond the Gulf of Mexico
Technology unlocking Mad Dog, Gulf of Mexico
Discovery map and seismic data quality
1998
2011
Current map and seismic data quality
(1) Wide Azimuth Towed Streamer
OWC
Project 20K™
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• Major technology project to progress 20k psi(1) resources
• Collaborating with contractors, vendors, regulators and universities
• Key system defined by end 2013
• Front End Engineering Design begins in 2014
(1) Thousand pounds per square inch
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Arctic yet-to-find
Source: United States Geological Survey, 2008
South Kara5
Russian Barents
Northeast Greenland
17
7
Alaska:BeaufortNorth SlopeChukchi
62
74127
31
7
10
0.11
20
3Yet-to-find volume (bnboe)
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Challenges for activity in the Arctic
Considerations for sustained industry activity
• Commercial
• Technological
• Operational safety
• Regulatory
• Ecological
• Cultural/socio-economical
• Reputational
• SecurityLomonosov Ridge, 2004
Image courtesy of Per Frejvall, Arctic Marine Solutions
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‘Re-exploration’ of the onshore
The remaining unexplored rock volumes onshore
• Frontier basins with challenging access (e.g. Congo).
• ‘Re-exploring old basins’
− Deepening: ‘exploring upwards’ from source rocks to existing shallow pay
− Tight reservoirs: in and around existing oil and gas giants
− Shales: achieving economic flow rates from the world’s great source rocks
BP Lozier Canyon #1
Buda Formation
Austin Formation
Eagle Ford Formation BP tight gas and shale positions
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Challenges for onshore activity
Considerations for hydraulic fracturing onshore
• Management of water and other fluids
• Seismic activity
• Air quality and GHG emissions
• Community impact
• Land and sensitive ecologies
Durango facility, Colorado, USA
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Risks presented by future industry activity
• Deepwater
− Managing pressures in excess of 20k psi(1)
• Arctic
− Ice management
− Spill response
− Communities
− Reputation
• Onshore
− Management of water and fluids
− Communities
− Industry footprint in sensitive ecologies(1) Thousand pounds per square inch
Wamsutter, Wyoming, USA
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Christina VercherePresident & Chairman BP Canada
Canadian oil sands
Terre de Grace lease, Canada
Overview
• The need for Canadian oil sands
• Status update on BP’s oil sands portfolio
• Technology
• Environment
• Government regulation
• Community relations
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BP’s oil sands portfolio
• Sunrise: 50/50 joint venture between operator Husky and BP
• Pike: 50/50 joint venture between operator Devon Energy and BP
• Terre de Grace:75/25 joint venture between BP as operator and ViBrant
Sunrise
Terre de Grace
Pike
Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage
Technology
BP Canada Technology Plan highlights
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Update on Canada’s Oil Sands Innovation Alliance
• Centre for Petroleum and Subsurface Chemistry
• Joint industry projects
• Research centre support
• 13 member companies
• Four environmental priority areas: water, tailings, land and greenhouse gases
• Sharing of technologies and innovation to solve environmental challenges
Environment
Air
Focus on energy efficiency and controls to reduce the emissions intensity associated with oil sands development
Land
Focus on collaboration with stakeholders and new methods to mitigate land disturbance
Water
Focus on both managing the amount of water needed to develop the resource and recycling produced water
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Government regulation
• Establishment of a new Alberta Energy Regulator – June 2013
• Joint oil sands monitoring
• Alberta Environmental Monitoring Evaluation Reporting Agency
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Community relations
• Listen and respond to stakeholder concerns and expectations
• Recognize First Nations consultation protocols
• Monitor joint venture operating partners actions and engagement plans
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Closing points
• Oil sands are an opportunity for BP to leverage technological expertise in a giant field
• BP is advancing its oil sands portfolio in a responsible manner
• Investment in technology will enable BP to continually improve environmental performance
• Canada’s oil sands are a highly regulated resource
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Q & A
Deepwater Gunashli platform, Azerbaijan