Individual Markets: Demand and Supply Chapter 3. Demand and Supply Supply.
Spunmelt Polypropylene – A View of Supply and Demand · PDF fileSpunmelt Polypropylene...
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Spunmelt Polypropylene – A View of Supply and Demand in North America
David Allan, Editor, Nonwovens, RISIJanuary 28, 2014
INDA Vision Consumer Products Conference, Dallas, Texas, USA
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Agenda
1. Demand history, forecast and drivers.
2. Evolving issues and forces behind
supply growth.
3. Issues with supply and demand.
4. Conclusions.
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Our View• North American SM PP demand in 2010-15
growing modestly (CAGR of 2-4%/year in tonnes).– Roughly flat demand in baby diapers in tonnes; area
usage up slightly.– Mid-single digit growth in inco, medical, some smaller
uses, in tonnage terms• Current modest supply excess will be tamed.
– Addition of new capacity likely to slow down.– As newer lines are depreciated, older equipment will
begin to lose competitiveness.– Market should be in rough balance by 2016.
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Global NW Demand Forecast
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,000
2000 2005 2010 2015
Source: INDA, EDANA, RISI
000 tonnes
Other NWOther SpunlaidSM PP
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North American NW Demand Forecast
0
600
1,200
1,800
2000 2005 2010 2015
Source: INDA, RISI
000 tonnes
Other NWOther SpunlaidSM PP
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US/Canada Demand by End-Use (INDA; 2010)
356
92
N.A. SM PP End-Uses by Sector(000 tonnes)
Disposable Durable
168.5
26
40.5
56
23
Hygiene Coverstock (All NW fabrics)
(000 tonnes)
Baby Diaper Train. PantsFem. Hy. Adult Inc.Underpads
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What Has Been Growing Recently?
• Adult incontinence is only major sector showing big unit sales growth.– Inco growth is under-
stated: excludes online, institutional.
• Even 52-wk numbers can be skewed by timing of product intros, pricing and inventory movements.
• IRI includes Walmart, Sam’s Club.
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
Dia
pers
Trai
n. P
ants
San
. Nap
kins
Adu
lt In
c.
US Retail Unit Sales (IRI; 52 weeks ending
12/1/13)
YOY % Change
8
$ growth: +5.6%
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Where Nonwovens are Used in the Diaper (INDA; 2010)
Top sheet, 26%
Barrier leg cuff, 21%
Back sheet, 31%
Other, 23%
% of Total Baby Cover Stock
• Average NW weights declining e.g. in top sheet, barrier leg cuff and core wrap.– Core wraps below 10
gsm have been made.– Other components could
get to 10-12 gsm. – Some NW
producers say they are already making them for a few customers.
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US births: return toward trendline, then slow growth
• US ‘crude birth rate’ was at 14.0/1000 in 2008.– Projected 2013: 13.66– Projected 2015: 13.4– Projected 2020: 13.2
• Fewer births happen in recessions; births now returning to more stable level.
• Birth rate will not return to levels of previous decades.
3,7003,8003,9004,0004,1004,2004,3004,4004,500
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: National Center for Health Statistics; US Census Bureau
US Births (000)
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US Population by Age (from CIA World Factbook)
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Meltspun Development for Hygiene Products
ProductBenefitsContainment
Skin wellness
Sustainable
Sensory
Fit and Closures
Value
Benefit Perception
MeltspunFocus
Web uniformity
Lighter weight
Green polymers
Reduced equip. cost
Cloth-like aesthetics
Higher through-put
Laminate processing
New benefit additives
Recent Developments
Benefit agent deliveryLow cost/energy, more uniform melt process.Natural, renewable and biodegradable fibersSoftness; tactile and
visual properties Better barrier, thru put micro and nanofibersPolymers and blendsLower cost, enhanced
stretch laminates
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Nonwovens Market R&D Investment*
ContinuousImprovement
(41.8%)
Other(3.4%)
ProductDifferentiation
**(10.3%)
New Benefits and Uses(28.5 %)
Cost Reduction
(8%)
New Technology
Push(8 %)
• Largest R&D effort targeted at improving existing technology
• New benefits and product uses also a key focus for investment
*Based on issued patents and applications during 2012
** Differentiation = product made distinctive with consumers (printing etc.)
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New Technology and BenefitsNote: drawn from 2012 and 2013 patents and applications
Technology CompanyFreshness sensation active for hygiene products Procter & GambleHigh active loading (80%) functionalized particle attachment, functionalized coatings; superhydrophobic
P&G, Cellresin Tech., various institutes, etc.
Modeling and simulation (3D product softness, graphics, topsheet aesthetics, absorbent system, SAP addition process)
P&G, First Quality
Smart, responsive nonwovens – BM responsive diaper, tampon capacity indicator, triggered agent delivery, dehydration indicator, liquid crystals, color change etc.
Unicharm, P&G, Kent State University, SCA, Dow
Higher yield nanofiber production, functionalized fibers
Nissan, UC, 3M,PGI , Toray
Micro and macro-texturing of nonwovens and films –puckering, zones, protrusions, ridges and troughs, shape memory polymers
P&G, K-C, Unicharm, Tredegar, 3M
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Getting lighter; more ahead?• Most coverstock basis weights are in 12-17 gsm range,
depending on element of the diaper – often 14.5-14.8 gsm.– Move to 10-12 gsm: in the cards or a ‘sea change’?– Trade-offs: quality; throughput on some lines; price.
• Would take several years to get to 10-12 gsm; how much lower can it go? (Some lines have already made 10 gsm.)– Converting issues.
• One view: bsw will continue to drop at 1-2%/year for next five years.
• Some diaper makers could chose heavier weights to differentiate themselves.
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Sustainability issues
• It is unlikely sustainability will hurt underlying demand trend in near term.
• Pressure from retailers will continue.• What is the answer?
– Bio-based polymers?– Using less material per disposable product.– Will a recycling approach ever take off?
• K-C diapers-to-compost deal with OCS.
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Evolution of NA inco market• Quality evolution:
– Discretion (underwear-like fit and appearance due to esthetics and stretchable/elastic materials; odor control).
– Health (breathable film/NW laminates; ADL materials selected to promote skin dryness).
• Segmentation by degree of incontinence; ambulatory/non-ambulatory; institutional vsindividual purchase.– Retail sector: Will continue moving into mainstream
distribution channels; losing ‘ick’ factor.• Average material per unit fairly stable because much
of market’s growth is in light incontinence sector.
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Diapers and Inco – Growth Implications
• Baby diaper unit sales likely to remain flat for many years.
• Inco unit sales probably growing 4-6% a year now and for foreseeable future.– US population 65 and over in 2009 = 40 million, or 13% of
total.– Forecast for 2030 is 72 million or 19%.– Inco penetration in US is probably not at 50% of potential.
• Diapers and training pants are a $4.8 billion business in USA today; inco is $1.4 billion at retail.– Inco expected to pass diapers in Japan by 2020 – when
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Two Perspectives On North American Capacity
24 SB; 33 SM
05
101520253035
Before2001
2001-5 2006-10 2011-
When Installed
11 of 3.5 M; 8 of 4.2 M; 7 other
0123456
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Wider Sometimes = Higher Capacity
Capacity (Tonnes; Left Axis)Width (Meters; Right Axis)
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Capacity issues• Overcapacity is often a temporary issue.
– Pig-in-the-python.– Also, capacity numbers tend to be nameplate.
• Looming obsolescence of some lines.– Older lines may offer lower throughput, less light-
weighting capability.– As new lines are depreciated, some older lines look
less advantaged.– It is easier for big multi-line companies to rationalize
capacity.• Smaller companies more likely to specialize where
possible, hold on to existing business where necessary.
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Projected Demand Increase vsCapacity Added or Planned in 2010-15
40,000
20,000
37,000
16,000
100,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Capacity Increase (000 tonnes) Projected Demand Increase
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New Capacity vs ExistingNew Lines
• Flexibility.– BSW range.
• Throughput; lower cash cost/unit.
• Better able to adapt to customers’ evolving new technology needs?
Existing Lines
• Known quantity.– ‘Well-run R3s quite
competitive with R4s.’
• May be fully depreciated.– Can be operated
economically at lower operating rates.
• If already upgraded to make specialty products, don’t require additional capital.
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Consolidation or new suppliers?• ‘The trend of tomorrow – and always will be’ –
view of one participant.– In a technology-intensive market, is it better to buy an
older line that isn’t ideal for your needs or build a new one that is?
– Big customers like competition.– On the other hand – PGI/Fiberweb/Providencia.
• Impact of globalization.– Invest capital following your customer to China or
upgrade technology in mature market with minimal growth potential?
• Risk of getting over-extended.
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PP resin costs – stable since economic recovery ($/lb)
0.0000.2000.4000.6000.8001.0001.2001.4001.600
Jan
2006
May
200
6S
ep 2
006
Jan
2007
May
200
7S
ep 2
007
Jan
2008
May
200
8S
ep 2
008
Jan
2009
May
200
9S
ep 2
009
Jan
2010
May
201
0S
ep 2
010
Jan
2011
May
201
1S
ep 2
011
Jan
2012
May
201
2S
ep 2
012
Jan
2013
May
201
3S
ep 2
013
$/lb
Source: Nonwovens Markets
PP Resin 14 gsm SB Gap Linear (Gap)
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Future issues• Margin squeeze.
– Diminishing returns on new capacity?• Sustainability.• Ability to deliver enhanced attributes and
economic value.– With margin pressures; need to invest to
follow customers overseas.• What happens when adult incontinence
achieves full penetration?
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Conclusions• Demand growth will be driven largely by
adult incontinence penetration rate increases.
• Innovation will continue to focus on features, economics, sustainability.– Present research effort appears focused on
improving existing technology – fundamental innovation is still possible.
• Capex likely to slow down; increasing focus on improving existing assets?
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My heartfelt thanks to:• The staff at INDA.• Keith Osteen and Rob Johnson of Smith,
Johnson & Associates.– Supplied slides 12-14 based on their definitive work
on Nonwovens Innovation and Technology Review 2013.
• The people who agreed to be interviewed in the research phase of this presentation.
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Nonwovens Markets
Nonwovens Company Profiles
Nonwovens Markets Price Watch
Nonwovens Innovation and Technology Review 2013
Thank you for your attention!For more information:
www.nonwovens.com
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