Springer Series in Reliability Engineering

Series editor

Hoang Pham, Piscataway, USA

More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/6917

Lance Fiondella • Antonio PuliafitoEditors

Principles of Performanceand Reliability Modelingand EvaluationEssays in Honor of Kishor Trivedion his 70th Birthday

123

EditorsLance FiondellaUniversity of Massachusetts DartmouthDartmouth, MAUSA

Antonio PuliafitoUniversità degli studi di MessinaMessinaItaly

ISSN 1614-7839 ISSN 2196-999X (electronic)Springer Series in Reliability EngineeringISBN 978-3-319-30597-4 ISBN 978-3-319-30599-8 (eBook)DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-30599-8

Library of Congress Control Number: 2016933802

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2016This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or partof the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations,recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmissionor information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilarmethodology now known or hereafter developed.The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in thispublication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt fromthe relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use.The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in thisbook are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor theauthors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein orfor any errors or omissions that may have been made.

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This Springer imprint is published by Springer NatureThe registered company is Springer International Publishing AG Switzerland

Non soffocare la tua ispirazione e la tuaimmaginazione, non diventare lo schiavo deltuo modello.(Do not stifle your inspiration and yourimagination, do not become the slave of yourmodel.)

—Vincent Van Gogh

Sbagliando si impara-proverbio italiano(You learn by making mistakes-Italian proverb)

To my wife Maria and my beloved children,Carlo and Andrea, for their unconditionedlove. To my friends, colleaguesand students representing the second halfof my existence.

—Antonio Puliafito

—Lance Fiondella

Contents

Part I Phase Type Distributions, Expectation MaximizationAlgorithms, and Probabilistic Graphical Models

Phase Type and Matrix Exponential Distributionsin Stochastic Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3Andras Horvath, Marco Scarpa and Miklos Telek

An Analytical Framework to Deal with Changing Pointsand Variable Distributions in Quality Assessment. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27Dario Bruneo, Salvatore Distefano, Francesco Longoand Marco Scarpa

Fitting Phase-Type Distributions and Markovian Arrival Processes:Algorithms and Tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49Hiroyuki Okamura and Tadashi Dohi

Constant-Stress Accelerated Life-Test Models and Data Analysisfor One-Shot Devices. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan, Man Ho Ling and Hon Yiu So

Probabilistic Graphical Models for Fault Diagnosisin Complex Systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109Ali Abdollahi, Krishna R. Pattipati, Anuradha Kodali, Satnam Singh,Shigang Zhang and Peter B. Luh

Part II Principles of Performance and ReliabilityModeling and Evaluation

From Performability to Uncertainty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143Raymond A. Marie

Sojourn Times in Dependability Modeling . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 169Gerardo Rubino and Bruno Sericola

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Managed Dependability in Interacting Systems. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 197Poul E. Heegaard, Bjarne E. Helvik, Gianfranco Nencioniand Jonas Wäfler

30 Years of GreatSPN . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 227Elvio Gilberto Amparore, Gianfranco Balbo, Marco Beccuti,Susanna Donatelli and Giuliana Franceschinis

WebSPN: A Flexible Tool for the Analysis of Non-MarkovianStochastic Petri Nets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 255Francesco Longo, Marco Scarpa and Antonio Puliafito

Modeling Availability Impact in Cloud Computing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 287Paulo Romero Martins Maciel

Scalable Assessment and Optimization of Power DistributionAutomation Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 321Alberto Avritzer, Lucia Happe, Anne Koziolek, Daniel Sadoc Menasche,Sindhu Suresh and Jose Yallouz

Model Checking Two Layers of Mean-Field Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 341Anna Kolesnichenko, Anne Remke, Pieter-Tjerk de Boerand Boudewijn R. Haverkort

Part III Checkpointing and Queueing

Standby Systems with Backups . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 373Gregory Levitin and Liudong Xing

Reliability Analysis of a Cloud Computing System with Replication:Using Markov Renewal Processes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 401Mitsutaka Kimura, Xufeng Zhao and Toshio Nakagawa

Service Reliability Enhancement in Cloud by Checkpointingand Replication . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 425Subrota K. Mondal, Fumio Machida and Jogesh K. Muppala

Linear Algebraic Methods in RESTART Problems in MarkovianSystems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 449Stephen Thompson, Lester Lipsky and Søren Asmussen

Vacation Queueing Models of Service Systems Subjectto Failure and Repair . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 481Oliver C. Ibe

Part IV Software Simulation, Testing, Workloads,Aging, Reliability, and Resilience

Combined Simulation and Testing Based on StandardUML Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 499Vitali Schneider, Anna Deitsch, Winfried Dulz and Reinhard German

x Contents

Workloads in the Clouds . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 525Maria Carla Calzarossa, Marco L. Della Vedova, Luisa Massari,Dana Petcu, Momin I.M. Tabash and Daniele Tessera

Reproducibility of Software Bugs. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 551Flavio Frattini, Roberto Pietrantuono and Stefano Russo

Constraint-Based Virtualization of Industrial Networks . . . . . . . . . . . . 567Waseem Mandarawi, Andreas Fischer, Amine Mohamed Houyou,Hans-Peter Huth and Hermann de Meer

Component-Oriented Reliability Assessment ApproachBased on Decision-Making Frameworks for OpenSource Software . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 587Shigeru Yamada and Yoshinobu Tamura

Measuring the Resiliency of Extreme-ScaleComputing Environments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 609Catello Di Martino, Zbigniew Kalbarczyk and Ravishankar Iyer

Contents xi

Contributors

Ali Abdollahi Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University ofConnecticut, Storrs, CT, USA

Elvio Gilberto Amparore Dipartimento di Informatica, Università di Torino,Turin, Italy

Søren Asmussen Department of Mathematics, Aarhus University, Aarhus C,Denmark

Alberto Avritzer Siemens Corporation, Corporate Technology, Princeton, NJ,USA

Narayanaswamy Balakrishnan Department of Mathematics and Statistics,McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada

Gianfranco Balbo Dipartimento di Informatica, Università di Torino, Turin, Italy

Marco Beccuti Dipartimento di Informatica, Università di Torino, Turin, Italy

Dario Bruneo Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Università degli Studi di Messina,Messina, Italy

Maria Carla Calzarossa Dipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale edell’Informazione, Università degli Studi di Pavia, Pavia, Italy

Pieter-Tjerk de Boer Department of Computer Science, University of Twente,Enschede, The Netherlands

Hermann de Meer Chair of Computer Networks and Computer Communications,University of Passau, Passau, Germany

Anna Deitsch Computer Science 7, Friedrich-Alexander-University ofErlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany

Marco L. Della Vedova Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, UniversitàCattolica del Sacro Cuore, Brescia, Italy

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Catello Di Martino Coordinated Science Laboratory, University of Illinois atUrbana Champaign, Urbana, IL, USA

Salvatore Distefano Higher Institute for Information Technology and InformationSystems Kazan Federal University, Kazan, Russia; Dipartimento di ScienzeMatematiche e Informatiche, Scienze Fisiche e Scienze della Terra, Università degliStudi di Messina, Messina, Italy

Tadashi Dohi Department of Information Engineering, Graduate School ofEngineering, Hiroshima University, Higashihiroshima, Japan

Susanna Donatelli Dipartimento di Informatica, Università di Torino, Turin, Italy

Winfried Dulz Computer Science 7, Friedrich-Alexander-University ofErlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany

Andreas Fischer Chair of Computer Networks and Computer Communications,University of Passau, Passau, Germany

Giuliana Franceschinis Dipartimento di Scienze e Innovazione Tecnologica,Università del Piemonte Orientale, Alessandria, Italy

Flavio Frattini Dipartimento di Ingegneria Elettrica e delle Tecnologiedell’Informazione, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Napoli, Italy

Reinhard German Computer Science 7, Friedrich-Alexander-University ofErlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany

Lucia Happe Institute for Program Structures and Data Organization, KarlsruheInstitute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Boudewijn R. Haverkort Department of Computer Science, University ofTwente, Enschede, The Netherlands

Poul E. Heegaard Department of Telematics, Norwegian University of Scienceand Technology, Trondheim, Norway

Bjarne E. Helvik Department of Telematics, Norwegian University of Scienceand Technology, Trondheim, Norway

Andras Horvath Dipartimento di Informatica, Università degli Studi di Torino,Turin, Italy

Amine Mohamed Houyou Siemens AG, Corporate Technology, Munich,Germany

Hans-Peter Huth Siemens AG, Corporate Technology, Munich, Germany

Oliver C. Ibe Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University ofMassachusetts, Lowell, MA, USA

Ravishankar Iyer Bell Labs—Nokia, New Provicence, NJ, USA

xiv Contributors

Zbigniew Kalbarczyk Bell Labs—Nokia, New Provicence, NJ, USA

Mitsutaka Kimura Department of Cross Cultural Studies, Gifu City Women’sCollege, Gifu, Japan

Anuradha Kodali University of California Santa Cruz, NASA Ames ResearchCenter, Moffett Field, CA, USA

Anna Kolesnichenko UL Transaction Security Division, Leiden, The Netherlands

Anne Koziolek Institute for Program Structures and Data Organization, KarlsruheInstitute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

Gregory Levitin The Israel Electric Corporation, Haifa, Israel

Man Ho Ling Department of Mathematics and Information Technology, TheHong Kong Institute of Education, Hong Kong Sar, China

Lester Lipsky Department of Computer Science and Engineering, 371 FairfieldWay, Unit 4155, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA

Francesco Longo Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Università degli Studi di Messina,Messina, Italy

Peter B. Luh Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University ofConnecticut, Storrs, CT, USA

Fumio Machida Laboratory for Analysis of System Dependability, Kawasaki,Japan

Waseem Mandarawi Chair of Computer Networks and ComputerCommunications, University of Passau, Passau, Germany

Raymond A. Marie IRISA Campus de Beaulieu, Rennes University, RennesCedex, France

Paulo Romero Martins Maciel Centro de Informática, Universidade Federal dePernambuco, Av. Jornalista Anibal Fernandes, s/n - Cidade Universitária, Recife,Brazil

Luisa Massari Dipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale e dell’Informazione,Università degli Studi di Pavia, Pavia, Italy

Daniel Sadoc Menasche Department of Computer Science, Federal University ofRio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ, Brazil

Subrota K. Mondal The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology,Kowloon, Hong Kong

Jogesh K. Muppala The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology,Kowloon, Hong Kong

Contributors xv

Toshio Nakagawa Department of Business Administration, Aichi Institute ofTechnology, Toyota, Japan

Gianfranco Nencioni Department of Telematics, Norwegian University ofScience and Technology, Trondheim, Norway

Hiroyuki Okamura Department of Information Engineering, Graduate School ofEngineering, Hiroshima University, Higashihiroshima, Japan

Krishna R. Pattipati Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering,University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA

Dana Petcu Departament Informatica, Universitatea de Vest din Timişoara,Timişoara, Romania

Roberto Pietrantuono Dipartimento di Ingegneria Elettrica e delle Tecnologiedell’Informazione, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Napoli, Italy

Antonio Puliafito Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Università degli Studi di Messina,Messina, Italy

Anne Remke Department of Computer Science, University of Münster, Münster,Germany

Gerardo Rubino Inria Rennes—Bretagne Atlantique, Campus de Beaulieu,Rennes Cedex, France

Stefano Russo Dipartimento di Ingegneria Elettrica e delle Tecnologiedell’Informazione, Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II, Napoli, Italy

Marco Scarpa Dipartimento di Ingegneria, Università degli Studi di Messina,Messina, Italy

Vitali Schneider Computer Science 7, Friedrich-Alexander-University ofErlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany

Bruno Sericola Inria Rennes—Bretagne Atlantique, Campus de Beaulieu, RennesCedex, France

Satnam Singh Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University ofConnecticut, Storrs, CT, USA

Hon Yiu So Department of Mathematics and Statistics, McMaster University,Hamilton, ON, Canada

Sindhu Suresh Siemens Corporation, Corporate Technology, Princeton, NJ, USA

Momin I.M. Tabash Dipartimento di Ingegneria Industriale e dell’Informazione,Università degli Studi di Pavia, Pavia, Italy

Yoshinobu Tamura Department of Electronic and Information SystemEngineering, Yamaguchi University, Ube-shi, Yamaguchi, Japan

xvi Contributors

Miklos Telek MTA-BME Information Systems Research Group, Department ofNetworked Systems and Services, Budapest University of Technology andEconomics, Budapest, Hungary

Daniele Tessera Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Università Cattolica delSacro Cuore, Brescia, Italy

Stephen Thompson Department of Computer Science and Engineering, 371Fairfield Way, Unit 4155, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA

Jonas Wäfler Department of Telematics, Norwegian University of Science andTechnology, Trondheim, Norway

Liudong Xing University of Massachusetts Dartmouth, Dartmouth, MA, USA

Jose Yallouz Department of Electrical Engineering, Israel Institute of Technology(Technion), Haifa, Israel

Shigeru Yamada Department of Social Management Engineering, TottoriUniversity, Tottori-shi, Japan

Shigang Zhang Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Universityof Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA

Xufeng Zhao Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, QatarUniversity, Doha, Qatar

Contributors xvii

Review of Prof. Trivedi’s Contributionsto the Field

Kishor S. Trivedi holds the Hudson Chair in the Department of Electrical andComputer Engineering at Duke University, Durham, NC. He has been on the Dukefaculty since 1975.

Professor Trivedi is a leading international expert in the domain of reliability andperformability evaluation of fault-tolerant systems. He has made seminal contri-butions to stochastic modeling formalisms and their efficient solution. He haswritten influential textbooks that contain not only tutorial material but also the latestadvances. He has encapsulated the algorithms developed into usable andwell-circulated software packages. He has made key contributions by applying theresearch results to practical problems, working directly with industry and has beenable to not only solve difficult real-world problems but also develop new researchresults based on these problems.

Professor Trivedi is the author of the well-known text, Probability and Statisticswith Reliability, Queuing and Computer Science Applications, published byPrentice-Hall, which has allowed hundreds of students, researchers, and practi-tioners to learn analytical modeling techniques. A thoroughly revised secondedition (including its Indian edition) of this book was published by John Wiley in2001. A comprehensive solution manual for the second edition containing morethan 300 problem solutions is available from the publisher. This book is the first ofits kind to present a balanced treatment of reliability and performance evaluation,while introducing the basic concepts of stochastic models. This book has made aunique contribution to the field of reliability and performance evaluation.

Professor Trivedi has also authored two books: Performance and ReliabilityAnalysis of Computer Systems, published by Kluwer Academic Publishers in 1995,and Queueing Networks and Markov Chains, published by John Wiley in 1998,which are also well known and focused on performance and reliability evaluationtechniques and methodologies. His second book has already made inroads forself-study with practicing engineers and has been adopted by several universities.The third book is considered to be an important book in queueing theory withseveral interesting example applications. The second edition of this book waspublished in 2006. He has also edited two books, Advanced Computer System

xix

Design, published by Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, and PerformabilityModeling Tools and Techniques, published by John Wiley & Sons.

He is a Fellow of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers and aGolden Core Member of the IEEE Computer Society. He has published over500 articles and has supervised 44 Ph.D. dissertations and 30 postdoctoral asso-ciates. He is on the editorial boards of IEEE Transactions on Dependable andSecure Computing, Journal of Risk and Reliability, International Journal ofPerformability Engineering, and International Journal of Quality, Reliability andSafety Engineering.

Professor Trivedi has taken significant steps to implement his modeling tech-niques in tools, which is necessary to the transition from state-of-the-art research tobest practices for industry. These tools are used extensively by practicing engineers,researchers, and instructors. Tools include HARP (Hybrid Automated ReliabilityPredictor) which has been installed at nearly 120 sites; SHARPE (SymbolicHierarchical Automated Reliability and Performance Evaluator) is used at over550 sites; and SPNP (Stochastic Petri Net Package) has been installed at over400 sites. Trivedi also helped design and develop IBM’s SAVE (SystemAvailability Estimator), Software Productivity Consortium’s DAT (DynamicAssessment Toolset), Boeing’s IRAP (Integrated Reliability Analysis Package), andSoHar’s SDDS. Graphical user interfaces for these tools have been developed.These packages have been widely circulated and represent a reference point for allresearchers in the field of performance evaluation. Most researchers in the field areprobably aware of such tools and have very likely used one or more of them.

Trivedi has helped several companies carry out reliability and availability pre-diction for existing products as well as the ones undergoing design. A partial list ofcompanies for which he has provided consulting services includes 3Com, Avaya,Boeing, DEC, EMC, GE, HP, IBM, Lucent, NEC, TCS, and Wipro. Notable amongthese is his help to model the reliability of the current return network subsystemof the Boeing 787 for FAA certification. The algorithm he developed for thisproblem has been jointly patented by Boeing. He led the reliability and availabilitymodel of SIP on IBM Websphere, a model that facilitated it sale of the system to atelco giant.

Kishor has developed polynomial time algorithms for performability analysis,numerical solution techniques for completion time problems, algorithms for thenumerical solution of the response time distribution in a closed queueing network,techniques to solve large and stiff Markov chains, and algorithms for the automatedgeneration and solution of stochastic reward nets, including sensitivity and transientanalysis. His contributions to numerical solution and decomposition techniques forlarge and stiff stochastic models have considerably relaxed the limits on the size andstiffness of the problems that could be solved by alternative contemporary tech-niques. He has also developed fast algorithms for the solution of large fault treesand reliability graphs, including multistate components and phase missionsystems analysis. He has defined several new paradigms of stochastic Petri nets(Markov regenerative stochastic Petri nets and fluid stochastic Petri nets), which

xx Review of Prof. Trivedi’s Contributions to the Field

further extend the power of performance and reliability modeling intonon-Markovian and hybrid (mixed, continuous-state, and discrete-state) domains.

His recent work on architecture-based software reliability is very well cited. Heand his group have pioneered the areas of software aging and rejuvenation. Hisgroup has not only made many theoretical contributions to the understanding ofsoftware aging and rejuvenation scheduling but has also been the first to collect dataand develop algorithms for the prediction of time to resource exhaustion, leading toadaptive and on-line control of rejuvenation. His methods of software rejuvenationhave been implemented in the IBM X-series servers three years after the researchwas first done; a record time in technology transfer. In recognition of his pioneeringwork on the aging and rejuvenation of software, Kishor was awarded the title ofDoctor Honoris Causa from the Universidad de San Martín de Porres, Lima Peru’on August 12, 2012. He has now moved on to experimental research into softwarereliability during operation where he is studying affordable software fault tolerancethrough environmental diversity.

Professor Trivedi developed solution methods for Markov regenerative pro-cesses and used them for performance and reliability analysis. He has applied hismodeling techniques to a variety of real-world applications, including performanceanalysis of polling systems and client–server systems, wireless handoff, connectionadmission control in CDMA systems, reliability analysis of RAID and FDDI tokenrings, availability analysis of Vaxcluster systems, transient performance analysis ofleaky bucket rate control scheme, and the analysis of real-time systems.

The contributions of Trivedi’s work are fundamental to the design of reliabledigital systems. His papers on modeling fault coverage are recognized as mile-stones. His papers on hierarchical modeling and fixed-point iteration representbreakthroughs to solve large reliability models. His advances in transient analysisare recognized as leading the state of the art by computer scientists. His contri-butions to the field of stochastic Petri nets and his work on performability modelingappear as benchmark references on these topics.

Among the enormous scientific production of Prof. Trivedi, the following fivepapers are representative of his contribution to the scientific community:

[1] Gianfranco Ciardo and Kishor S. Trivedi. “A decomposition approach forstochastic reward net models.” Performance Evaluation 18(1) (1993): 37–59.Develops a decomposition approach to large Markovian Petri nets; boththeoretical and practical aspects are considered.

[2] Hoon Choi, Vidyadhar G. Kulkarni, and Kishor S. Trivedi. “Markov regen-erative stochastic Petri nets.” Performance Evaluation 20(1) (1994): 337–357.Develops a new formalism of MRSPN that allows generally distributed firingtimes concurrently with exponentially distributed firing times.

[3] Vittorio Castelli, Richard E. Harper, Philip Heidelberger, Steven W. Hunter,Kishor S. Trivedi, Kalyanaraman Vaidyanathan, and William P. Zeggert.“Proactive management of software aging.” IBM Journal of Research andDevelopment 45(2) (2001): 311–332. Details the implementation of software

Review of Prof. Trivedi’s Contributions to the Field xxi

rejuvenation in IBM X-series as an example of tech transfer from academia toindustry.

[4] Sachin Garg, Aad van Moorsel, Kalyanaraman Vaidyanathan, KishorS. Trivedi. “A methodology for detection and estimation of software aging.”Proc. Ninth International Symposium on Software Reliability Engineering(1998): 283–292. First experiment to demonstrate the existence of softwareaging and prediction of time to resource exhaustion.

[5] Andrew Reibman, and Kishor S. Trivedi. “Numerical transient analysis ofMarkov models.” Computers & Operations Research 15(1) (1988): 19–36.Benchmark paper on numerical transient analysis of Markov models.

xxii Review of Prof. Trivedi’s Contributions to the Field