SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005 The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center...

SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and

Transition (SPoRT) Center

Huntsville WFO Assessment of NASA Products

Chris Darden


Brief Review of FY ’05 Accomplishments

WRF Assessment Results (from WFO HUN forecaster assessment period)– Completed last fall and shared with forecast staff– Results were deemed useful by forecasters in

decision making process Enhanced Mesoscale Model Training

– Add’l WRF Seminar held October 12, 2005 Expansion of Modeling Efforts

– AWIPS ingest started at WFO MOB– Also received interest from WFO MRX


Additional LMA Case Studies Gathered– Identified approx. 9 cases to date that are of particular

interest• There are many more cases where LMA data have been

used. These cases represent a cross-section of various storm types, thermodynamic, and kinematic regimes

22 LMA Surveys were completed in FY ’05– Significant jump in surveys from the previous year

In many cases, the forecasters found the LMA data provided add’l confidence in the Warning Decision Process– Either potentially increasing lead times or decreasing

FARs– A couple of examples will be shown later




A few comments from the LMA Surveys and general correspondence/emails…– “When I did look at the LMA data before issuing a warning, I did

feel more confident in issuing the warning. I like the LMA data! If this data IS also incorporated into SCAN probably more forecasters here will routinely use this data.” Henry S. - OHX

– “LMA helped with "confidence" about warnings.” – “This (LMA) allowed us additional lead time (10-15 minutes) to

issue/update Significant Weather Alerts for the affected county.”– “All three warnings were verified with no missed events that we

know of. The LMA data was utilized throughout the event by the warning forecaster on duty.”

– “In particular, there were cells in Shelby and Jefferson counties that showed nice jumps in advance of severe wx occurrences.”



Collaborative efforts have been well represented at professional conferences and workshops

Specifically, NWS Presentations Include…– Four papers/presentations at 2005 AMS

• Four more planned for 2006 AMS

– Oral Presentation at Spring ’05 SECAPS– Southern Thunder, DFW

Formal Visitview Teletraining materials were prepared and presented to NWS SR forecasters (Feb. ’05) on Total Lightning Applications– Material also part of the office severe weather training

plan



Expansion of NASA satellite products at NWS field offices– Delivery of MODIS and AMSR-E datasets into WFO

MFL, MOB, and SMG– Feedback from coastal offices quite positive (more

about that later) Continued utilization of high spatial resolution NASA

satellite data in support of WFO operations– Forecasters have noted that the increased spatial

resolution of the MODIS datasets has allowed for enhanced customer support/forecasts for mesoscale phenomenon such as fires, valley fog, etc.

• Will show a few examples…



Inclusion of Convective Initiation Products into AWIPS– Initial training session completed Spring ’05– Dry run of “data ingest” during the summer with add’l

tweaking– Plans for “operational rollout” for the Spring ’06

convective season– WFO MRX also interested in CI Products

Access to dual-polarimetric ARMOR data (since Spring ’05) has provided add’l avenues for collaboration and research activities.


Now…Let’s Share a Few Success Stories

Since early May, WFO MFL has been receiving MODIS and AMSR-E products

This brings the total number of WFOs receiving some form of NASA developed or derived products to 7.

During a recent event of very high impact (Hurricane Wilma), these datasets were quite helpful in the decision making process for the local forecast office.

However, even during more benign regimes, these datasets are quite useful in the data sparse regions adjacent to the Gulf of Mexico.


“…in high wind events tipping buckets don’t always give you the true sense of how much is really raining.”

“…MODIS data we have found it to be very useful in giving us a better sense of how extensive the cloud cover is at night, detecting low level clouds which is critical for aviation forecasting operations…detecting cloud streets and subtle convergent lines during day time with the high res visible” Pablo Santos, SOO


“Here's an example from yesterday (the 7th) of how we can use the 88D and 3.9u IR imagery to sense fires during the fire weather season.”

Andy Kula, WFO HUN

Note: The IR temp was only 27C from GOES (not shown) but showed up much better from MODIS.

Location of Fire


High resolution data quite useful to assess existing soil moisture

MODIS SSTs provide much more detailed information for coastal office

Coastal offices can utilize this detailed information for ingest into GFE for water temps and other smart tools and procedures


Local Modeling

Why is it important?– Provides our forecasters with much needed

experience with the WRF model– Provides an alternative mesoscale solution to

the NAM (as potential input into GFE)– NCEP WRF currently only run once per day

• Lack of continuity not desirable • Forecasters not able to “get a handle” on how the

model is doing• Not available in AWIPS


00 UTC August 4, 2005

NAM WRF

24h forecast: 3h accumulated precipitation

Composite radar reflectivity


12 UTC August 25, 2005

NAMWRF

36h forecast: 3h accumulated precipitation

Composite radar reflectivity


Lightning Initiatives

Utilization of LMA Source Density Fields for Warning Decision Making

Utilization of LMA for “first strike” forecasting

Development of Lightning Threat Index for Emergency Managers

Correlate LMA fields with CI work to improve convective “nowcasting” and TAFs


Lightning Case Study #1

October 18, 2004 Rotating storm near edges of radar coverage LMA provided forecaster extra confidence in

tornado warning

LMA Source Rates Versus Time

0

50

100

150

200

Time (UTC)

Sou

rce

Rat

es

LMA (2 min)

F1

Jump

10/18/04

12 min

Sou

rce

Den

sity

LMA Source Density vs. Time


Radar Coverage

KHTX

KGWX

0.5 Elevation HeightsFROM KHTX 10889 ft MSLFROM KGWX 7559 ft MSL

o


October 18, 2004 Case

0.5 º SRM

0.5 º Refl

1.5 º SRM

LMA Source Density

2234 UTC

Developing Mesocyclone/Ho

ok

Minimal Electrical Activity



0.5 º SRM

1.5 º SRM

0.5 º Refl

2240 UTC

LMA Source Density

Persistent Couplet

Lightning Jump



0.5 º SRM

1.5 º SRM

0.5 º Refl

LMA Source Density

2244 UTC

Strengthening Couplet

Slight decrease in source count



0.5 º SRM

1.5 º SRM

0.5 º Refl

LMA Source Density

2250 UTC

Minutes before tornado

touchdown

Continued decrease in sources


Lightning Case Study #2 November 15, 2005 Rotating storm again near edges of radar

coverage LMA provided forecaster extra confidence

in tornado warning

LMA Source Rates Versus Time

0102030405060

Time (UTC)

Sourc

e R

ate

s

LMA (2 min)

F0 1/2”


November 15, 2005 Case

0213 UTC

0.5 º SRM

LMA Source Density

0.5 º Refl

0.9 º Refl

Minimal Electrical Activity

Broad Rotational Couplet



0217 UTC

Some Increase in Rotation and IC Rates



0221 UTC

Lightning Jump and Tightening of Couplet



0226 UTC

Decrease in IC Sources Rates



0230 UTC

Time of Tornado Touchdown


Can LMA Data Provide CG Lead Time?

Some Results from NSSL Experiments 20-25% within one min., 80% within 8

mins.

Courtesy Don MacGorman (STEPS Experiment)


LMA Providing Lead Time for First CGs

Developing Convection

No CGs reported

10-20 LMA sources


First CGs Reported 5 Minutes Later


Team up with Convective Initiation

Dr. Mecikalski at UAH Use in conjunction with LMA to highlight

threat areas Illustrates possible thunderstorm

development next 0-2 hours Provide enhanced nowcasting information

and expanded support to local partners and customers

SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005 kkoooooooookkkkkkkkkkk

Satellite-Lightning Relationships• Current Work: Develop relationships between IR TB/TB and lightning source counts/flash densities toward nowcasting (0-2 hr) future lightning occurrence* Supported by the NASA New Investigator Program Award #:NAG5-12536

2047 UTC

2147 UTC

North Alabama LMA Lightning Source Counts

2040-2050 UTC

2140-2150 UTC


End Result Provide a decision

support tool to local emergency managers

Would include some type of threat index or probability of lightning– Based on LMA/NLDN

output, cell tracking information, and hopefully 0-3 CI information


Summary and Future Plans

WFO Collaborative Goals For The Coming Year….– Finalize and deliver a Lightning Threat Index/Product

(in some form) to the emergency management community

– Begin utilizing ADAS in operations for analysis and as initialization/verification input into GFE.

– Another Lightning Teletraining Session…– A recorded version of the Visitview files for audio

playback– Develop a clearer picture of “where we’re going” with

the local/mesoscale modeling program• Local modeling is EXTREMELY important to the WFO, and

we want this relationship to continue in some capacity!



WFO Collaborative Goals For The Coming Year….– Solidify contact points at WFO BMX and OHX.– Take FAM trips if necessary/requested.– Integrate the CI products into our aviation and short

term forecast “framework”• Ensure adequate staff training and familiarization

– Continue to synthesize dual-polarimetric (ARMOR) data and other near-storm environment datasets (MIPS) with NASA products/datasets to enhance short term forecasts and warnings

• NWS SCEP student (and UAH master’s student) currently working on such a cross-cutting thesis

– Continue to gather/identify LMA cases of interest and pursue partnership with FL/NSSL Lightning Proposal



Continue to Gather LMA Case Studies– Goal is to have one extensive case study

(May 6, 2003) complete and delivered to all participating offices this year

– Need to identify available resources to conduct add’l thorough studies/event reviews for verification and publication

• WFO time limited in this area

– Perhaps a fully funded graduate student?



A Bigger Picture Idea….– Can’t take credit for this one. Our MIC Mike

Coyne came up with the idea originally.– Start a “Special Topics” course in the UAH

ATS program which would essentially be a formal volunteer program with the NWS

– One of the tasks of the students participating might be assisting with the “heavy lifting” necessary for case studies, reviews, verification, etc.


Questions or Comments?

SPoRT SAC Nov 21-22, 2005 The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center...

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