Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V....
Transcript of Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V....
Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates
Investment Counsel Since 1933
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Agenda
I. Corporate Overview
II. Team, Philosophy, & Process
III. Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates
IV. Global Economic & Investment Outlook
V. Appendix
Spän
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The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” DeliveredCo
rpor
ate
Ove
rvie
w
1933Year Standish was founded
156.4 billion USD in assets under management1
184 employees2
130 investment professionals located in U.S., U.K. and Singapore2
U.S., regional and global mandates
With clients in 43 countries
Investment Strategies and Solutions
Absolute Return Opportunistic Fixed IncomeTax-Sensitive Absolute Return
Multi-Sector Relative Return Global Core Plus
Global Core/Non-U.S. Core
Long Duration
U.S. Core PlusU.S. Core
Short/Intermediate Duration
Cash
Stable Value
Single Sector Relative ReturnEmerging Markets
Global Corporate Credit
Securitized Strategies
Tax-Sensitive
TIPS
Government
Solutions
Liability Driven Investing
Insurance Client Strategies
Liquidity Strategies
ESG/SRI
SB/Standish Overview 4Q 15/01-07-16/BR
Source: Standish as of December 31, 2015.1 Assets under management (AUM) as of December 31, 2015. This figure includes assets managed by Standish personnel acting as dual officers of The Dreyfus Corporation or The Bank of
New York Mellon; high yield assets managed by personnel of Alcentra NY, LLC acting as dual officers of Standish; and mortgage assets managed by personnel of Amherst CapitalManagement LLC acting as dual officers of Standish. Standish, Dreyfus, Alcentra and Amherst Capital are registered investment advisers. Standish, Dreyfus, Alcentra and The Bank of NewYork Mellon are wholly-owned subsidiaries of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. Amherst Capital is a majority-owned subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation.
2 Includes shared employees of Standish Mellon Asset Management (UK) Limited and MBSC Securities Corporation, both affiliates of Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC(“Standish”), Standish Mellon Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. Limited who provide non-discretionary research services to Standish US and may also serve as sub-adviser to Standish USfor certain client mandates, and employees of Alcentra NY, LLC and Amherst Capital Management LLC acting as dual officers of Standish. These individuals may from time to time act in thecapacity of shared employees of Standish, performing sales, marketing, portfolio management support, research and trading services for certain Standish managed accounts.In addition, Standish is also supported by BNY Mellon Asset Management Operations LLC (“BNYM AM Ops”) which is a legally separate entity that provides services related to all aspects ofIT and operations, including front, middle and back office services through a Service Level Agreement.
Absolute FX
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Standish Investment Resources
SB/Standish Overview 4Q 15/01-07-16/BR
Corp
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1 Employee of Standish Mellon Asset Management (UK) Ltd who provides investment management and trading services as shared employees of Standish U.S.2 Employee of Alcentra NY, LLC who provides research and trading services for legacy High Yield and multi-sector strategies; 3 Employee of Standish Mellon Asset Management (Singapore) Pte.Limited who provides non-discretionary research services to Standish US and may also serve as sub-adviser to Standish US for certain client mandates 4 Via service agreement with AlcentraLimited 5Employee of Amherst Capital Management LLC who provides research and trading services for dedicated mortgage and multi-sector strategies. Note: Some investment professionalsperform the same role on more than one product team. CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by CFA Institute.
Javier MurcioMurray Collis3
Howe Chung Wan3
Federico Garcia ZamoraJosephine Shea
Robert Bayston, CFAKaren Gemmett, CFA5
David Fishman, CFA5
Nate Pearson, CFAMarcos Duque, CFA5
Eric Seasholtz5
David Morse, CFAAndrew Catalan, CFA
Matthew Fontaine, CFAChris Barris2
Christine Todd, CFADaniel Rabasco, CFA
Thomas Casey
Daniel Marques, CFAJeffrey Burger, CFA
PORTFOLIO ANALYTICS
SPECIALIZED TRADING
RISK MANAGEMENT
RESEARCH
Corporate Research Sovereign & Currency Research
Rebecca Braeu, PhD, CFANate Hyde, CFA
Rowena Macfarlane1
Javier Murcio Aninda Mitra3
Federico Garcia ZamoraNicholas Tocchio
U.S. Rates & Securitized
Nate Pearson, CFADavid Fishman, CFA5
Karen Gemmett, CFA5
Steven Brinkley5
Marcos Duque, CFAEric Seasholtz5
Tax Sensitive
David Belton, CFADaniel Barton, CFADavid Mann, CFA
Maureen Newman, CFAMark Ryan
Scott Zerneri
Amy Koch, CFAGlobal Head of Fixed Income Trading
Emerging Markets
Prakash Gopalakrishnan3
Rosa VelasquezSarah Percy-Dove3
Milena Ianeva1
Joseph Huang3
David Morse, CFADiana Belman, CFA
Maura Caporale, CFABenjamin Li, CFA
Jonathan Earle, CFABeth Fiore
Joseph Chiurri, CFA
Investment Grade
Kevin Cronk, CFA2
Clark Orsky, CFA2
Stephen Sylvester2
Andrew Sieurin, CFA2
Josephine Shin2
Edward Vietor2
Tim Raeke2
Robert Davis2
Frank Longobardi2Andrew Fahey2
Young Kwon2
Ashley Taylor2
High Yield
David Leduc, CFAChief Executive Officer & Chief Investment Officer
David Leduc, CFAChief Executive Officer & Chief Investment Officer
MULTI-SECTOR
STRATEGIES
Andrew Catalan, CFAMatthew Fontaine, CFA
Max Guimond, CFA, FRM Colyar Pridgen, CFA, FSA, EA
Ryan Miller, ASA
Christine Todd, CFAJames Kaniclides, CFA
Laura Lake, CFAAmanda Abdella, CFA
SOLUTIONS
Boris KozorezJames EddyPaul Correia
David Horsfall, CFARaman Srivastava, CFA
David Leduc, CFA
OPPORTUNISTICFIXED INCOME
Raman Srivastava, CFABrendan Murphy, CFA
Thant Han1
Nate Hyde, CFA
GLOBALFIXED INCOME
David Bowser, CFADavid Horsfall, CFA
U.S. CORE/CORE PLUSFIXED INCOME
LIABILITY DRIVEN INVESTING INSURANCE CLIENT STRATEGIES
SINGLE-SECTOR
STRATEGIES
EMERGING MARKETS DEBT U.S. RATES & SECURITIZED GLOBAL CORPORATE CREDIT
Global Rates & Currency
Bart StiresAustin Jennings
Emerging Markets
Victor Tavares, CFADouglas McEneaney, CFA
William Newton, CFA
Global Corporate Credit
Joseph Pasquale, CFAVinnie Ruschioni2
Global Rates & CurrencyMichael Piersol, CFA
Ian Barnes1
Patrick Savery
Sally Bartunek, CFARyan Lambert, CFA
Global Corporate CreditMichael Lynch
Christopher FrisoliIan Barnes1
Michael Cunningham, CFA2
Amy Lattimore4
Thomas Frangione2
TAX SENSITIVE
Stephan Bonte, CFAMichael Faloon, CFA, FRM
SUSTAINABLE INVESTING
Municipal
Michael Bandar, CFAPaul Rockwood, CFA
Alisa Fitzgerald
David SwallowTyler Doyle
Christopher Dial
Michael Faloon, CFA, FRMVikas Malla, CFA
Douglas Reich, CFADavid Kingsley
U.S. Rates & Securitized
Jeff Nutt, CFA5
Bryan Steele
Liability Driven Investing
James Plunkett
Insurance Strategies
Francis Cifrino
U.S. Rates & Securitized
Patrick GillisAdam Pischel
Emerging Markets
Sally Bartunek, CFARyan Lambert, CFA
David Horsfall, CFADeputy Chief Investment Officer
David Horsfall, CFADeputy Chief Investment Officer
Raman Srivastava, CFADeputy Chief Investment OfficerRaman Srivastava, CFADeputy Chief Investment Officer
John Hosa, CFAStephen Murphy, CFA
Anthony Honko
Amy LowenSara Cummins
SHORTDURATION
Eric Baumhoff, CFABradley Bennett
Linda Lam, CFA, CPAJonathan Mauceli, CFA
STABLE VALUE
Vincent ReinhartChief Economist
Vincent ReinhartChief Economist
Federico Garcia ZamoraRaman Srivastava, CFA
David Horsfall, CFABrendan Murphy, CFA
CURRENCY
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Global Investment Grade Credit TeamTe
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SBGCCQ4012616JB
Portfolio Management
CREDIT COMMITTEECREDIT COMMITTEE MACROECONOMIC RESEARCH COMMITTEEMACROECONOMIC RESEARCH COMMITTEE
Trading
David Morse, CFADirector of Investment Grade Credit
CreditResearch
Kevin Cronk, CFA2 Director of Research Clark Orsky, CFA2 Homebuilders/Materials,
Manufacturing/Machinery, UtilityStephen Sylvester2 Broadcasting, Services, TransportationAndrew Sieurin, CFA2 Consumer Products, Gaming, LeisureJosephine Shin2 HealthcareEdward Vietor2 Cable, TelecommunicationsRobert Davis2 TechnologyAndrew Fahey2 Energy, RetailYoung Kwon2 Food/Beverage/Tobacco,
Metals/Mining, Paper/PackagingTim Raeke2 Chemicals, FinanceFrank Longobardi2 Aerospace/AutosAshley Taylor2 Media/Other
Prakash Gopalakrishnan4 Asia Rosa Velasquez Latin AmericaSarah Percy-Dove4 AsiaMilena Ianeva 1 CEEMEAJoseph Huang4 Asia
Sally Bartunek, CFARyan Lambert, CFA
Amy Lattimore3
Tom Frangione2
Mike Cunningham2
High Yield / Bank Loan AnalystsEmerging Market Corporate Analysts
PortfolioAnalytics
Victor Tavares, CFADouglas McEneaney, CFA
William Newton, CFAVinnie Ruschioni2
1 Employee of Standish Mellon Asset Management (UK) Ltd who provides investment management and trading services as shared employees of Standish U.S.2 Employee of Alcentra NY, LLC who provide research and trading services for legacy High Yield and multi-sector strategies; 3 Via service agreement with Alcentra Limited 4 Employee ofStandish Mellon Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. Limited who provides non-discretionary research services to Standish US and may also serve as sub-adviser to Standish US for certain clientmandates. 5 Employee of Amherst Capital Management LLC who provides research and trading services for dedicated mortgage and multi-sector strategies. Note: Some investmentprofessionals perform the same role on more than one product team. CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by CFA Institute.
Michael LynchIan Barnes1
Christopher Frisoli
David Morse, CFA Building Materials, Environmental, Basics
Maura Caporale, CFA Telecom, Media, IndustrialsBenjamin Li, CFA Utilities, EnergyDiana Belman, CFA Banking, InsuranceJonathan Earle, CFA Consumer , Pharmaceuticals,
Technology, HealthcareBeth Fiore Banking, Finance,
TransportationDavid Fishman, CFA5 REITSJoseph Chiurri, CFA REITS, Retail
Joseph Pasquale, CFA
David Horsfall, CFADeputy Chief Investment Officer
David Horsfall, CFADeputy Chief Investment Officer
Investment Grade Corporate Analysts
Vincent ReinhartChief Economist
Vincent ReinhartChief Economist
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Investment Philosophy – Global CreditTe
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We believe: Success in managing corporate bonds requires both a strong defense against the negative return/risk
asymmetry of individual credits and a strong offense focused on the market’s least efficient quality tiers.
Seeking outperformance demands a team of experienced credit analysts who apply proprietary “ratings and trend” metrics to distinguish deteriorating from stable-to-improving credits.
Effective fundamental credit research balances a bottom-up perspective with the firm’s macro or top-down view.
A chief source of excess return is identifying, avoiding, and/or selling potential problem credits.
A final contributor to outperformance can be found in certain niches of the corporate bond market, such as BBBs which can provide higher returns over time due to their disproportionate yields, pattern of ratings migration, and price increase on upgrade.
SBGCCQ4012616JB
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Investment Philosophy – Historical “Proof Statement”Te
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Historical Proof Statement – Standish Approach to Corporate Bonds Historically, bond ratings have been unstable even over very short periods, with migrations increasing in the
lower quality tiers.
Baa = BBB; Ba = BB; Caa_C = CCC – C; WR = Withdrawn (e.g. debt, acquisitions, divestitures, etc.)Past performance is no indication of future results
CONCLUSION: Significant incremental return may be available to active managers with the confidence to overweight BBBs and the ability to capture upgrades and avoid downgrades.
Among investment-grade bonds, BBBs (Baas) have exhibited both the most frequent rating changes and the most positive results, with upgrades nearly equaling downgrades.
Because of their disproportionate yield advantage, BBBs have historically outperformed under 2 of 3 possible rating scenarios.
SBGCCQ4012616JB
Average One-Year Rating Migrations, 1970-2015Rating Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa Ca-C Default WRAaa 87.48% 8.14% 0.59% 0.06% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.71%Aa 0.83% 85.15% 8.45% 0.44% 0.06% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 0.02% 4.99%A 0.06% 2.57% 86.60% 5.37% 0.51% 0.11% 0.04% 0.01% 0.06% 4.68%Baa 0.04% 0.16% 4.30% 85.44% 3.74% 0.69% 0.16% 0.02% 0.18% 5.26%Ba 0.01% 0.04% 0.47% 6.17% 76.17% 7.17% 0.68% 0.12% 0.92% 8.25%B 0.01% 0.03% 0.15% 0.45% 4.78% 73.52% 6.49% 0.56% 3.41% 10.60%Caa 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.11% 0.42% 7.02% 66.77% 2.81% 8.52% 14.32%Ca-C 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.00% 0.62% 2.46% 9.47% 39.59% 24.09% 23.71%Source: M oody's as o f December 31, 2015.
Scenario “Probability”Spread
Impact (Bps)Incremental
Return “Probability”Spread
Impact (Bps)Incremental
ReturnDowngrade 6.04% +63 -3.34% 4.62% +264 -16.78%Upgrade 2.63% -4 1.35% 4.49% -18 2.96%No Change 86.60% - 1.07% 85.44% - 1.70%
Single A BBB
Sources: M oody's as o f 12/31/2014 for rating migration probabilities. Barclays POINT data from 1/1/1992 to 12/31/2014 and Standish calculation for spread impact. Incremental Return calculations assume a duration o f 7 years.
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Fundamental Credit Research
► Understand key players, industry evolution, likely successful business models
► Employ proprietary valuation models to help set portfolio industry weights
► Participate in key industry events and visit companies
► Conduct one-on-ones with key senior management
► Apply financial and scenario analysis to individual issuers
► Compare resulting internal valuations to third-party and market views
► Examine company's liquidity and access to capital
► Review issuer's capital structure for bonds offering best risk/return profiles
► Review key covenants ► Develop asset valuation / recovery analysis
► Credit team’s diversified, model portfolio► Proprietary ratings and credit momentum
1 = Rapidly improving credit
2 = Improving credit
3 = Stable credit
4 = Deteriorating credit
5 = Rapidly deteriorating credit
ManagementManagement
Key Financial MeasuresKey Financial Measures
Financial FlexibilityFinancial Flexibility
Bondholder ProtectionBondholder Protection
BEST IDEASBEST IDEAS
Industry Structure & Dynamics
Industry Structure & Dynamics
Key Inputs
Standish Internal Credit Rating
Source: Standish . For illustrative purposes only.
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Corporate Trading
Dedicated team of experienced corporate traders Industry specialists; e.g. telecom, banks, utilities, etc.
Deep understanding of relative value within assigned industries
Direct relationships with trading counterparts on “sell side”
Interaction with other sector traders at Standish; e.g. high yield, global, liquid products
Seeks best execution in the marketplace
Integral part of the portfolio management team Situated in close proximity to portfolio managers and analysts
Expected to add value, not just execute orders
Provide trading view in credit and portfolio discussions
Recommend optimal bond selection within issuers’ capital structures
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Sector Model SummaryTe
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Model R-squared Sector Actual Fair Value
Attractiveness Score (Stand. Dev.)
Forecast Value
Attractiveness Score (Stand. Dev.)
Total Relative Value Score
84% Long Corporate OAS (bps) 263 224 1.5 238 0.9 2.481% High Yield (bps) 749 650 1.0 669 0.8 1.873% 10y TIPS break-even CPI (%) 1.43 1.45 0.1 1.74 1.5 1.683% US Investment Grade Credit (bps) 197 162 1.0 181 0.4 1.483% EM Local Bond Yield (%) 6.85 6.80 0.2 6.58 1.0 1.196% Mortgage Pass Throughs (bps) 107 104 0.2 100 0.5 0.787% Emerging Markets (bps) 483 463 0.1 451 0.2 0.494% Asian Credit Spread (bps) 319 332 -0.4 338 -0.6 -1.081% European High Yield Bonds (bps) 609 672 -0.3 761 -0.8 -1.277% 6m G10 FX Carry TR (%) -0.55 -5.00 -1.3 -2.21 -0.5 -1.794% 10y Treasury Interest Rates (%) 1.74 2.20 -0.9 2.48 -1.5 -2.487% 10y Gilt Rate (%) 1.45 2.18 -1.3 2.10 -1.2 -2.595% 2s-10s Treasury Yield Slope (%) 0.96 1.52 -1.4 1.50 -1.3 -2.775% Implied Rate Volatility (bps) 85 75 -1.7 77 -1.3 -3.087% European Corp. Bonds (bps) 156 197 -1.1 227 -1.9 -3.085% 10y Bund Rate (%) 0.23 1.24 -2.0 1.04 -1.6 -3.790% High Yield Bank Loan Spread (bps) 456 604 -1.9 614 -2.1 -4.0
Six Month ForecastCurrent Fair Value
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
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LongCorporateOAS (bps)
High Yie ld(bps)
10y TIPSbreak-even
CPI (%)
USInvestment
Grade Credit(bps)
EM LocalBond Yield
(%)
MortgagePass
Throughs(bps)
EmergingMarkets
(bps)
Asian CreditSpread (bps)
EuropeanHigh Yie ld
Bonds (bps)
6m G10 FXCarry TR (%)
10y TreasuryInterest
Rates (%)
10y Gilt Rate(%)
2s-10sTreasury
Yield Slope(%)
Implied RateVolatility
(bps)
EuropeanCorp. Bonds
(bps)
10y BundRate (%)
High Yie ldBank Loan
Spread (bps)
Stan
dard
Dev
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Current Value Forecast Value Total Relative Score
Source: Standish as of February 29, 2016. For illustrative purposes only.
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Investment Grade Model as of 2/29/16
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Feb-98 Feb-00 Feb-02 Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12 Feb-14 Feb-16
Spre
ad (
bp)
Investment Grade Actual Spread Investment Grade Spread Residuals Investment Grade Fair Spread
Investment Grade Model
Proprietary Investment Grade Corporate model seeks to explain the current level of option adjusted spreads of the Barclays Credit Corp Index.
Factors:
− Capacity Utilization
− Net Percentage of Senior Loan Officers reporting tightening standards
− Ratio of CAPEX vs. Depreciation Expense
− Implied Volatility (VIX)
Source: Standish as of February 29, 2016. For illustrative purposes only. Sector models are run monthly and are subject to change.
Actual Spread (2/29/16) 197
Model Fair Value 162
Residual 35.4
Standard Deviation 1.0
2/29/16 2/29/15 ChangeVariable Impact
Capacity Utilization%(-1) 77.1 78.7 -1.60 13Net % of Respondents Tightening Stds. - C&I Loans, Large/Medium 8.2 -5.5 13.70 9
Ratio of CAPEX vs. Depreciation Expense 1.6 1.7 -0.10 -6
Implied Volatility (VIX) 20.6 13.3 7.30 17
R2 81%
Variable Levels
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Investment Process – Industry WeightsTe
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Proprietary ranking model is used to support analysis of industry weightings.
Industry mean-variance analysis and risk parameter constraints aim to identify optimal min/max weightings.
Model incorporates objective and subjective inputs for fundamentals, momentum, and valuation
Research analyst input and discussion integrated into portfolio construction
Fundamentals Momentum Valuation
Leverage Internal Ratings Historical Spreads
Profitability External Ratings Relative Spreads
Business Prospects Sentiment Fair Value
SBGCCQ4012616JB
Source: Standish. For illustrative purposes only.Note: Portfolio managers may use some or all of the techniques described in this document.
October 10, 2012 Index Weights
Ave. OAS
Lower Bound
Multiplier
Upper Bound
Multiplier
Range Low
Range High Leverage Profit Business
ProspectsYield Level
Spread Regression Sentiment S&P Moody's Fitch Standish Overall
Score
Corporate 147Reits 1.36 181 0.25 2.00 0.34 2.72 Decreasing Increasing Positive High Fair Positive Stable Stable Stable Positive 8.5
Paper 0.26 219 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.65 Unchanged Unchanged Stable High Cheap Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 6.7
Finance Companies 2.80 168 0.65 1.50 1.82 4.20 Decreasing Increasing Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 6.1
M etals & M ining 2.36 223 0.25 2.00 0.59 4.72 Increasing Unchanged Stable High Cheap Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 6.1
Life Insurance 2.04 215 0.25 2.00 0.51 4.08 Unchanged Unchanged Stable High Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.7
Transportation 1.62 156 0.25 2.00 0.41 3.24 Unchanged Increasing Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.6
M edia-Noncable 1.29 163 0.25 2.00 0.32 2.58 Unchanged Increasing Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.6
P&C 1.61 172 0.25 2.00 0.40 3.22 Unchanged Increasing Stable Index Fair Stable Negative Stable Stable Stable 5.4
Supermarkets 0.34 228 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.85 Unchanged Decreasing Negative High Cheap Stable Negative Negative Stable Stable 5.2
Banking 19.15 161 0.75 1.25 14.36 23.94 Decreasing Increasing Stable Index Fair Negative Negative Negative Negative Stable 5.0
Telecom 5.34 165 0.65 1.50 3.47 8.01 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.0
Electric 6.01 130 0.65 1.50 3.91 9.02 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.0
Energy 5.37 137 0.30 1.75 1.61 9.40 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.0
Technology 3.65 122 0.30 1.75 1.10 6.39 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.0
Natural Gas 2.70 174 0.25 2.00 0.68 5.40 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.0
M edia-Cable 1.97 152 0.25 2.00 0.49 3.94 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.0
Chemicals 1.40 119 0.25 2.00 0.35 2.80 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.0
Health Insurance 0.74 148 0.25 2.00 0.19 1.48 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.0
Brokerage 0.59 212 0.25 2.00 0.15 1.18 Unchanged Unchanged Stable High Cheap Negative Negative Negative Negative Negative 5.0
Consumer Cyclical 4.37 130 0.60 1.50 2.62 6.56 Unchanged Unchanged Positive Index Rich Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 4.6
Food/Beverage 3.52 96 0.40 1.75 1.41 6.16 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Low Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 4.3
Health Care 1.36 116 0.25 2.00 0.34 2.72 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Low Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 4.3
Capital Goods 3.80 107 0.30 2.00 1.14 7.60 Unchanged Increasing Stable Low Rich Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 3.9
Consumer Products 0.90 100 0.25 2.00 0.23 1.80 Unchanged Decreasing Stable Low Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 3.8
Tobacco 0.86 137 0.25 2.00 0.22 1.72 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Rich Negative Stable Stable Stable Stable 3.4
Pharmaceuticals 3.30 87 0.50 1.50 1.65 4.95 Increasing Decreasing Stable Low Fair Stable Stable Negative Negative Stable 2.9
N o n-C o rpo rate
Foreign Agency 5.35 58 0.33 1.75 1.77 9.36
Supranational 5.30 23 0.33 1.75 1.75 9.28
Sovereigns 4.79 114 0.33 1.75 1.58 8.38
Foreign Local Govt 5.37 125 0.33 1.75 1.77 9.40
Total 99.5
Sector Statistics Risk Allowance Fundamentals Valuation Monentum / Outlooks
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Standish & Sustainable InvestingTe
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Standish Sustainable Investing Timeline
|May 2007
Dec2012
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|March2013
May2013
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|June2013
Aug2013
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|Sep
2013
|Nov2013
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|Dec2013
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|Feb
2014Apr
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|June2014
Aug2014
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|Jan
2015May2015
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June 2015
Signatory to UNPRI
Adam Seitchik and Sarah Cleveland Consulting provides ESG consulting training to staff.
Contract with MSCI to provide
research
Begin incorporating MSCI Research into credit process
Standish turns on ESG data in POINT®
Forms ESG Working Group
Purchases first green bond
ESG data available in portfolio management system
Becomes member of Green Bond Working Group
ESG screens available in CRD compliance.All analysts trained on Bloomberg ESG
Becomes U.S. Climate Change Investor Signatory
Creates ESG Sovereign Model
Becomes EXCO member of Green Bond Principles
Hires Sustainalytics to perform ESG gap analysis
ESG introduced as performance goal for all investment staff
Appoints Head of Sustainable Investing
Contracts with KLD for inclusion of SRI screens in CRD compliance
As of 12/31/15, Standish manages $14.9 billion in SRI mandates with the oldest active mandate dating back to 1989.
Publishes ESG and Sustainability Investment Policy
December2015
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Formal Rollout of proprietary Standish Corporate ESG Risk Metrics & Analytics
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Standish & ESGTe
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How is ESG incorporated into Standish’s research and investment process? Research: Analysts evaluate ESG as they would other relevant investment criteria (financial strength, competitive
position, etc.)
Depending on sector, we apply different emphasis to E, S, or G.
Utilize company filings, MSCI research and Bloomberg data as sources for ESG research.
Investment: Consider if externalities could affect the credit during our holding period.
ESG Incorporated in
Investment Process
Industrials
Financials
UtilitiesEE SS GG
EE
SS GG
SS GG
SovereignSS GG
EE
EE
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Corporate Bond Management – Standish Differentiators
Security selection philosophy Security selection is premised on identifying stable to improving credits that are trading at attractive
valuations while avoiding deteriorating credits given the asymmetric risk/return profile of corporate bonds.
Team approach The firm’s macro and relative value views serve as the framework for the construction of portfolios, which are
further based on the interaction of sector heads who meet regularly to formulate market views using quantitative models to provide a disciplined approach for discussion and analysis.
Credit decisions are driven by experienced analysts employing a proprietary ratings and credit trend methodology. Portfolio construction benefits from this integrated team approach consisting of portfolio managers, analysts, and traders working in close proximity.
Right-sized Standish has a large enough asset-base to devote ample resources to the corporate sector, yet small enough
that security selection decisions have a material impact on returns.
Customization to meet client objectives Mandates can be tailored to meet specific guidelines while drawing from the best ideas across specialized
strategies.
Team
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roce
ss
SBGCCQ4012616JB
15
Portfolio PerformanceSp
ängl
er IQ
AM B
ond
Non
-Fin
anci
al C
orpo
rate
sTO BE UPDATED
Performance (Gross) as of 2/29/16
Net Perf. (Fund NAV) -0.41 -3.97 1.34
Value added (Net) -1.02 -4.26 -1.42
Market Value:
*Since Inception: 4/16/12
€ 55,360,492
-0.08
-2.89
2.44
0.610.29
2.76
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
YTD 1 Year Since Inception*
Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates Merrill Lynch EMU Corporate Non-Financial
16
Performance Attribution Year-To-DateSp
ängl
er IQ
AM B
ond
Non
-Fin
anci
al C
orpo
rate
s
Attribution (Gross) as of 2/29/2016 YTD (%)Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial CorporateS Fund (Gross) -0.08ML EMU Corporate 0.61Value Added -0.69
Contributions to Value Added (Gross)Yield Curve 0.46Asset Allocation -0.23Security Selection -0.91Pricing Differences & Intra-Day 0.00FX Allocation & Hedging -0.02Total -0.69
Top Positive Contributors YTD (%)
ENELIM 0.03KMI 0.03HUWHY 0.01Top Negative ContributorsFCX -0.31TLMCN -0.10ETP -0.06
17
Portfolio RiskSp
ängl
er IQ
AM B
ond
Non
-Fin
anci
al C
orpo
rate
s
Source: Barclays POINT ® as of February 29, 2016.
18
Portfolio Characteristics as of 2/29/16Sp
ängl
er IQ
AM B
ond
Non
-Fin
anci
al C
orpo
rate
s
Portfolio Benchmark
Effective Duration 3.9 2.9
Average Spread to Bunds 155 125
Average Coupon 3.04 3.48
Average Maturity 4.2 3.6Average Quality BBB+ BBB+
Characteristics
Euro 60.7% Euro 100.0%
US Dollar 33.2% US Dollar
Pound 6.1% Sterling
Other 0.0% Other
Bond Currency Breakdown %Portfolio Benchmark
AAA 4.8% AAA 0.3%
AA 8.1% AA 8.7%
A 30.3% A 34.0%
BBB 53.8% BBB 57.0%
BB 2.2% BB 0.0%
B & Below 0.9% B 0.0%
Benchmark
RatingsPortfolio
Relative Portfolio Statistics (CTD)
0.970.32
0.200.140.13
0.020.010.00
-0.01-0.06-0.07-0.11
-0.12-0.12
-0.28
-2 -1 0 1 2
CONSUMER_NON_CYCLCONSUMER_CYCLICAL
ENERGYCOMMUNICATIONS
TECHNOLOGYBASIC_INDUSTRY
INDUSTRIAL_OTHERCAPITAL_GOODS
UTILITY_OTHERFINANCE_COMPANIES
ELECTRICTRANSPORTATION
NATURAL_GASREITS
OWNED_NO_GUARANTEE
S&P Rating* Portfolio Benchmark OverweightANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV NV. A- 0.11 0.00 0.11BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG (BMW). A 0.12 0.01 0.11KRAFT HEINZ CO/THE. BBB- 0.10 0.00 0.10PERNOD-RICARD SA. BBB- 0.11 0.01 0.10VOLKSWAGEN AG. BBB+ 0.10 0.02 0.08SKY PLC. BBB 0.07 0.00 0.07APPLE INC. AA+ 0.07 0.00 0.07TELEFONICA SA. BBB 0.09 0.03 0.06ALLERGAN PLC. BBB- 0.06 0.00 0.06BP PLC. A- 0.06 0.00 0.06Total 2.06 0.94 0.82
Top 10 Overweight Corporate Issuers (CTD)
19
Global Outlook & ForecastG
loba
l Eco
nom
ic &
Inve
stm
ent O
utlo
ok
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
January 2016
Survey 2015E 2016F 2015F 2016F 2015E 2016F 2015E 2016F
United States 2.4 2.4 0.2 1.7 2.5 2.5 0.2 1.7
Japan 0.7 1.2 0.8 1.1 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.7
United Kingdom 2.3 2.3 0.2 1.3 2.4 2.3 0.1 1.3
Euro-zone 1.5 1.7 0.1 0.9 1.5 1.7 0.1 1.0
China 6.8 6.2 1.9 1.6 6.9 6.5 1.5 1.7
Russia -3.8 -0.3 15.5 7.5 -3.8 -0.2 13.5 7.3
Brazil -3.5 -2.4 10.8 6.5 -3.5 -2.2 10.4 6.6
Developed Markets 1.9 2.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 2.1 0.3 1.5
Emerging Markets 3.9 4.1 6.9 6.1 3.9 4.3 6.3 5.8
Global 3.0 3.2 4.1 4.0 3.1 3.6 3.7 3.9
Real GDP (%) Inflation (%) Real GDP (%) Inflation (%)Consensus EconomicsStandish
Source: Standish and the International Monetary Fund as of January 2016.E= Expected; F= Forecast
20
Glo
bal E
cono
mic
& In
vest
men
t Out
look
Global Economic Outlook for Q1 2016
We expect U.S. growth to continue to be driven by a strong consumer and improving labor market.
While base effects should drive U.S. headline inflation, we expect core measures to be more subdued and this may have an impact on the Fed’s hiking cycle.
The Eurozone recovery remains on track, with growth supported by personal consumption. However, we believe inflation will remain subdued given commodity weakness and may lead the European Central Bank to expand their quantitative easing program further.
As China’s economy rebalances, the industrial and property market slowdown is expected to weigh on global growth and commodity prices in 2016.
We anticipate further divergence in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Whilst CEE will benefit from its close links to the recovering Eurozone, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) will lag due to its dependence on commodities. However, we expect CIS should see some normalization in economic conditions in 2016.
We believe difficult challenges will constrain Latin America in 2016, and growth will remain below potential.
Please see important disclosures at the end of this presentation.
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
21
Strong Consumption Supporting U.S. Growth
Consumption will likely be supported by a continued strong labor market, although positive impulses of energy savings may moderate.
Government spending and positive base effects in fixed asset investment is expected to offset the ongoing drag of trade associated with dollar strength.
Glo
bal E
cono
mic
& In
vest
men
t Out
look
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
Source: Standish and Bureau of Economic Analysis as of December 2015
Component Contribution to Real GDP Growth
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015
Cont
ribut
ion
to P
erce
nt C
hang
e in
Real
GD
P(4
Qtr
. Mov
ing
Ave
rage
)
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Real Business Fixed Investment Real Net Exports Real Government
22
Base Effects Should Lead to Higher Headline Inflation…G
loba
l Eco
nom
ic &
Inve
stm
ent O
utlo
ok
Base effects will drive U.S. inflation higher in the first quarter assuming stable energy prices.
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
Source: Bloomberg as of January 2015
CPI and Gasoline Percent Growth
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Year
to Y
ear P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Year
to Y
ear P
erce
nt C
hang
eCPI (LHS) Gasoline (RHS)
Implied Y/Y % Change Assuming Stable Gasoline Prices
23
…Though Core Measures Should Be More SubduedG
loba
l Eco
nom
ic &
Inve
stm
ent O
utlo
ok
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
We believe increases in measures of core inflation should be modest with the upside risks associated with the tightening labor market in the second half of 2016.
The increased gap between PCE1 and CPI2 continues to be driven by the weight of housing and the method used to estimate medical care costs which may cause more uncertainty among policy makers.
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5Ye
ar to
Yea
r Per
cent
Cha
nge
Difference (CPI-PCE) Core CPI Core PCE
1PCE = Personal Consumption Expenditure2CPI = Consumer Price IndexSource: BLS and BEA as of January 2016
24
Eurozone Recovery Remains on Track…
Whilst shallow by historical standards, we expect the Eurozone recovery to remain resilient.
Just as in the U.S., household consumption is expected to be the key driver of growth in 2016. Household confidence continues to grow, particularly as unemployment decreases. Fiscal loosening will also support growth, whilst net exports are expected to be negligible in terms of contribution.
A slowdown in Spain – which has been on an accelerated pace of recovery – may be compensated by further structural improvements in Italy and cyclical factors in Germany.
Glo
bal E
cono
mic
& In
vest
men
t Out
look
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
Source: Standish as of January 2016
Eurozone GDP Growth
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Eurozone France Germany Italy Spain
Perc
ent G
row
th in
Rea
l GD
P
2015 2016 Forecast 2017 Forecast
25
...however Inflation is Likely to Fall Short of ECB Expectations G
loba
l Eco
nom
ic &
Inve
stm
ent O
utlo
ok
Given the shallowness of the recovery, we believe output gaps will persist for some time.
ECB inflation expectations are significantly more optimistic than our own. Without significant further weakness in the euro, they are unlikely to be achieved.
We feel that the ECB is likely to need to downgrade its inflation expectations at its March 2016 meeting, and will need to engage in dovish communications to justify the significant divergence from 2% target.
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
Eurozone Inflation Eurozone Inflation
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Year
to Y
ear P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Headline CPI Core CPI
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
Eurozone France Germany Italy Spain
Annu
al A
vera
ge C
PI P
erce
nt C
hang
e
2015 2016 Forecast 2017 Forecast
Source: Bloomberg as of January 2016
26
The Domestic Economy Justifies BoE Monetary Policy Normalization G
loba
l Eco
nom
ic &
Inve
stm
ent O
utlo
ok
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates for the first time since 2008 in late H1 2016 following the Fed’s initial rate hike.
November 2015 is expected to have marked a turning point in the inflation cycle in the U.K., and significant increases in the headline rate of inflation will occur in Q1 2016.
The labor market will also continue to support the normalization. Data continues to highlight strong employment dynamics but also slight head winds to further wage growth.
Source: Bloomberg as of January 2016
UK Inflation
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Year
to Y
ear P
erce
nt C
hang
e
UK Inflation
UK Unemployment and Wages
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
Year
to Y
ear P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Perc
ent o
f Lab
or F
orce
Une
mpl
oyed
UK Unemployment Rate (LHS)Weekly Earnings (Excluding Bonuses) (RHS)
27
We Expect there to be Continued Divergence in Eastern Europe
Central and Eastern Europe will continue to be closely connected to the Eurozone recovery. We expect growth to remain robust, and inflation to move upwards towards central bank targets by the end of 2016.
We expect the Commonwealth of Independent States will continue to recover from its commodity/currency induced recessions, and should see some normalization in economic conditions in 2016. Therefore, we expect growth will slowly return to the region and inflation will come down from their extremely elevated levels.
Glo
bal E
cono
mic
& In
vest
men
t Out
look
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
1PMI = Purchasing Managers IndexSource: Bloomberg as of January 2015
Manufacturing PMIs1 Industrial Production
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60
Inde
xPoland Czech Republic Turkey Hungary
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Year
to Y
ear P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Ukraine Russia Kazakhstan
28
Latin American Real GDP Growth Latin American 12 Month Cumulative Trade Balance
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
Year
to Y
ear P
erce
nt C
hang
eBrazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Mill
ions
of U
SD
Brazil Chile ColombiaMexico Peru Argentina
Difficult Challenges Will Constrain Latin American Growth in 2016
Growth rates in Latin America remain below potential. Idiosyncratic risk will keep Brazil in a recession in 2016, a second year of economic contraction. Despite better macroeconomic policy management in Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, the combined impact of sluggish developed economies, weak commodity prices and normalization of U.S. interest rates will present a difficult challenge, which will limit 2016 growth to rates similar to those in 2015.
Trade balances have not benefited yet from weak currencies in Latin America. The sharp decline in commodity prices and weak global growth have prevented exports from accelerating. Any improvement has been more related to the deceleration in domestic demand. The most notable example is Brazil, where the deep recession has allowed the trade surplus to reach near record levels.
Glo
bal E
cono
mic
& In
vest
men
t Out
look
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
Source: Bloomberg as of January 2016
29
We Expect Chinese Growth to Slow As Economy Rebalances
We expect China’s industrial and property market slowdown will weigh on global growth and commodity prices in 2016.
Despite the slowdown, Chinese service activity is holding up better than manufacturing.
Glo
bal E
cono
mic
& In
vest
men
t Out
look
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
Source: CFIC, Standish, Bloomberg as of January 2016
Industrial Production and Real GDP Growth Purchasing Manager's Indices
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
Year
to Y
ear P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Year
to Y
ear P
erce
nt C
hang
e
Industrial Production (LHS) GDP Growth (RHS)
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
PMI I
ndex
( >
50 in
dica
tes e
xpan
sion
; <50
in
dica
tes c
ontr
actio
n)
Caixin Services PMI Caixin Manufacturing PMI
30
Rising Currency Pressure Could Curtail Much Further Scope For Monetary Easing
Glo
bal E
cono
mic
& In
vest
men
t Out
look
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves
6.0
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
6.7
6.8
6.9
7.0
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16
USD
CNY
Billi
ons o
f USD
FX Reserves, USD bln (LHS) USDCNY (RHS)
Source: CEI, Bloomberg, Standish as of January 2016
31
Glo
bal E
cono
mic
& In
vest
men
t Out
look
Global Investment Outlook for Q1 2016
In response to heightened uncertainty in our global economic outlook and increased volatility in financial markets, portfolios have moderated risk budgets in the fourth quarter, particularly in areas of corporate credit and emerging markets.
We believe that the market is currently underpricing the likely number of rate hikes by the Fed in 2016 and 2017 though rising credit defaults and wider credit spreads have led to tighter financial conditions that will likely keep expectations below Fed projections. While there is some scope for higher U.S. rates and a flatter yield curve, our risk budgets in duration and curve remain modest.
We are cautious on corporate credit spreads. Despite valuations that are towards the higher end of the range during non-recessionary periods, deteriorating fundamentals, poor technicals and increased liquidity premiums generally warrant neutral positioning.
The divergence of monetary policy between the U.S. and the rest of the world has been largely priced into FX markets. We expect the general trend of dollar strength to moderate in 2016 and relative value between specific currencies to offer better opportunities. We expect modest depreciation of the Chinese yuan and related currencies versus the dollar and have increased long dollar/short Asian currency positions.
In emerging markets, we are cautious on local rates. We expect growth in the emerging world to continue to decelerate at a moderate pace, as economies rebalance to significantly lower commodity prices. We anticipate further divergence within this space, as many countries continue to struggle with much needed reforms following the downturn in commodity prices. Inflation, on the other hand, could surprise on the upside especially in the case of countries where currencies have depreciated significantly versus the U.S. dollar.
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
32
Market Underpricing Fed Projections For Tightening
The market is underpricing the median projections from the Fed for tightening in the coming years. Global growth and inflation concerns have kept expectations for rate hikes low but a tightening labor market in the U.S. raises core inflation risks and could result in expectations moving closer to Fed projections. In this scenario, there is further room for flattening in the yield curve.
Glo
bal E
cono
mic
& In
vest
men
t Out
look
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
Source: Bloomberg as of January 2016
Federal Open Market Committee Projections
2015 2016 2017 2018 Longer Term-1
0
1
2
3
4
5Fe
dera
l Fun
ds R
ate
(% te
rms)
Minutes Dec-15 Jun-15 Median Sep-15 Median Dec-15 Median OIS1
33
Typically, Default Rates Lag Monetary Policy Changes, Not Lead
Corporate default rates have generally followed a declining trend during the early stages of Fed hiking cycles. Similar to 1999, the Fed is currently removing policy accommodation when default rates are already trending higher. Higher defaults and wider credit spreads from historically low levels contribute to tighter financial conditions which may limit the amount of tightening by the Fed in this cycle.
While we believe the market will likely raise their expectations for the number of hikes to occur in 2016 and 2017 as the labor market continues to tighten, we also believe it is unlikely that the Fed reaches their longer term equilibrium rate in this cycle, which limits future changes in the overall level of rates as well as in the shape of the curve.
Glo
bal E
cono
mic
& In
vest
men
t Out
look
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
Source: Bloomberg as of January 2016
Fed's Five-year Forward Breakeven Inflation Rate
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Perc
ent
5y5y breakeven inflation
2.4% Implied Fed CPI Target
5-10 years
1.7% Consensus for 2016
2.6% UMICH Survey 5-10 Year Expectations
34
Corporate Spreads are at Wide End of Non-Recessionary PeriodsG
loba
l Eco
nom
ic &
Inve
stm
ent O
utlo
ok
Provided that corporate spreads are not signaling the start of a recession, this could present some buying opportunities.
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
Source: Bloomberg as of January 2016
Corporate Spreads
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Perc
enta
ge P
oint
s
Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index
35
TIPS Are AttractiveG
loba
l Eco
nom
ic &
Inve
stm
ent O
utlo
ok
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
Source: Bloomberg as of January 2016
Fed's Five-year Forward Breakeven Inflation Rate
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17
Perc
ent
5y5y breakeven inflation
2.4% Implied Fed CPI Target
5-10 years
1.7% Consensus for 2016
2.6% UMICH Survey 5-10 Year Expectations
TIPS valuations imply long run inflation expectations that are well below both near term and long term forecasts. Negative sentiment surrounding recent energy price declines and increased liquidity premiums have driven TIPS to cheap levels.
Headline and core inflation measures are expected to rise in 2016 which should result in improved valuations for TIPS.
36
Rate Divergence Largely Reflected in U.S. Dollar StrengthG
loba
l Eco
nom
ic &
Inve
stm
ent O
utlo
ok
Many countries continue to struggle with much needed reforms following the downturn in commodity prices. While valuations have become more attractive and pockets of opportunity exist in higher quality parts of the market, portfolio risk budgets are low in this area.
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
1DXY = U.S. Dollar IndexSource: Bloomberg as of January 2016
U.S. Dollar and 2 Year Average Rate Differential
-1.2
-0.7
-0.2
0.3
0.8
1.3
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
Rate
Diff
eren
tial (
Perc
ent)
DXY
DXY (LHS) 2 year avg rate differential (RHS)1
37
We Expect Continued Divergence in Emerging MarketsG
loba
l Eco
nom
ic &
Inve
stm
ent O
utlo
ok
In emerging markets, we are cautious on local rates. We expect growth in the emerging world to continue to decelerate at a moderate pace, as economies rebalance to significantly lower commodity prices. We anticipate further divergence within this space, as many countries continue to struggle with much needed reforms following the downturn in commodity prices. Inflation, on the other hand, could surprise on the upside especially in the case of countries where currencies have depreciated significantly versus the U.S. dollar.
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
Emerging Market 10-year Yields
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16
Perc
ent Y
ield
Turkey Brazil Mexico South Africa
Source: Bloomberg as of January 2016
38
Standish Proprietary Sector Models
Source: Standish as of December 31, 2015. For illustrative purposes only.
Model R-squared Sector Actual Fair Value
Attractiveness Score (Stand. Dev.)
Forecast Value
Attractiveness Score (Stand. Dev.)
Total Relative Value Score
83% EM Local Bond Yield (%) 7.13 6.77 1.2 6.78 1.2 2.575% Implied Rate Volatility (bps) 82 82 0.0 93 1.8 1.873% 10y TIPS break-even CPI (%) 1.58 1.53 -0.3 1.96 1.8 1.681% High Yield (bps) 696 600 1.0 643 0.5 1.584% Long Corporate OAS (bps) 227 204 0.9 224 0.1 1.081% European High Yield Bonds (bps) 536 453 0.4 489 0.2 0.787% Emerging Markets (bps) 446 408 0.3 431 0.1 0.477% 6m G10 FX Carry TR (%) -3.01 -2.45 0.2 -3.39 -0.1 0.183% US Investment Grade Credit (bps) 165 159 0.2 170 -0.1 0.096% Mortgage Pass Throughs (bps) 98 96 0.1 102 -0.3 -0.194% 10y Treasury Interest Rates (%) 2.27 2.20 0.1 2.43 -0.3 -0.295% 2s-10s Treasury Yield Slope (%) 1.22 1.35 -0.3 1.42 -0.5 -0.887% European Corp. Bonds (bps) 134 139 -0.1 167 -0.9 -1.087% 10y Gilt Rate (%) 1.87 2.41 -1.0 2.54 -1.2 -2.294% Asian Credit Spread (bps) 283 315 -1.0 321 -1.2 -2.285% 10y Bund Rate (%) 0.59 1.27 -1.4 1.38 -1.6 -3.190% High Yield Bank Loan Spread (bps) 448 597 -2.1 572 -1.7 -3.8
Six Month ForecastCurrent Fair Value
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
EM LocalBond Yield
(%)
Implied RateVolatility
(bps)
10y TIPSbreak-even
CPI (%)
High Yie ld(bps)
LongCorporateOAS (bps)
EuropeanHigh Yie ld
Bonds (bps)
EmergingMarkets (bps)
6m G10 FXCarry TR (%)
USInvestment
Grade Credit(bps)
MortgagePass
Throughs(bps)
10y TreasuryInterest Rates
(%)
2s-10sTreasury Yield
Slope (%)
EuropeanCorp. Bonds
(bps)
10y Gilt Rate(%)
Asian CreditSpread (bps)
10y BundRate (%)
High Yie ldBank Loan
Spread (bps)
Stan
dard
Dev
iatio
n
Current Value Forecast Value Total Relative Score
Glo
bal E
cono
mic
& In
vest
men
t Out
look
GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR
39
Important DisclosuresAp
pend
ix
This information is not provided as a sales or advertising communication. It does not constitute investmentadvice. It is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Many factors affect performanceincluding changes in market conditions and interest rates and in response to other economic, political, orfinancial developments. Past performance is not a guide to or indicative of future results. Future returns arenot guaranteed and a loss of principal may occur. There can be no assurance that the investment objectivesoutlined in this presentation will be achieved. This information is not intended to provide specific advice,recommendations or projected returns of any particular Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC(“Standish”) product. Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources and hasnot been verified by Standish. Standish makes no representations as to the accuracy or the completeness ofany of the information herein.The enclosed material is confidential and not to be reproduced or redistributed without the prior writtenconsent of Standish. Any statements of opinion constitute only current opinions of Standish, which are subjectto change and which Standish does not undertake to update. Views expressed are subject to change rapidly asmarket and economic conditions dictate. Portfolio composition is also subject to change.The Firm is defined as Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC ("Standish"), a registered investmentadvisor and wholly owned subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation.BNY Mellon Investment Management is one of the world’s leading investment management organizations andone of the top U.S. wealth managers, encompassing BNY Mellon’s affiliated investment management firms,wealth management organization and global distribution companies. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand ofThe Bank of New York Mellon Corporation and may also be used as a generic term to reference theCorporation as a whole or its various subsidiaries generally. Products and services may be provided undervarious brand names and in various countries by subsidiaries, affiliates, and joint ventures of The Bank of NewYork Mellon Corporation where authorized and regulated as required within each jurisdiction.Standish Mellon Asset Management (UK) Limited, (“Standish (UK)”) is an affiliate of Standish located inLondon, which provides investment management services. Certain employees of Standish (UK) may also act inthe capacity as associated persons of Standish and in such capacity may provide contracted research servicesto Standish.Rankings include assets managed by BNY Mellon Asset Management and BNY Mellon Wealth Management.Each ranking may not include the same mix of firms.This portfolio data should not be relied upon as a complete listing of the Portfolio’s holdings (or top holdings)as information on particular holdings may be withheld if it is in the client’s best interest to do so. Portfolioholdings are subject to change without notice and may not represent current or future portfolio composition.The portfolio date is “as of” the date indicated.There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time youreceive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed do not representan account’s entire portfolio and in the aggregate may represent only a small percentage of an account’sportfolio holdings.It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions or holdings discussed were or will prove to beprofitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable orwill equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein.The allocation distribution and actual percentages may vary from time-to-time. The types of investmentspresented in the allocation chart will not always have the same comparable risks and returns. The actualperformance of the portfolio will depend on the Investment Manager’s ability to identify and accessappropriate investments, and balance assets to maximize return while minimizing its risk. The actualinvestments in the portfolio may or may not be the same or in the same proportion as those shown above.Standish believes giving an proprietary Average Quality Credit rating to the holdings in a portfolio moreaccurately captures its characteristics versus using a single rating agencies ratings. Standish has aratings/number hierarchy whereby we assign a number between 0 (unrated bond) and 21 (S&P or Moody’sAAA) to all bonds in a portfolio based on the ratings of one or more of the rating agencies (with the lower ofthe 2 available agencies ratings prevailing), and then take a weighted numerical average of those bonds (withweighting based on each bonds percentage to the total portfolio assets). The resulting number is thencompared back to the ratings/number hierarchy to determine a portfolio’s average quality. For example, ifMoody’s AAA, S&P AAA= 21, Moody’s A1, S&P A+= 17, Moody’s Baa1 and S&P BBB+=14, Moody’s B1 andS&P B+=7. The numeric average of the 4 equally weighted holdings is 14.75, rounded up to the next wholenumber of 15. 15 converts to an average credit rating of S&P A/Moody’s A2.To the extent the strategy invests in foreign securities, its performance will be influenced by political, socialand economic factors affecting investments in foreign companies. Special risks associated with investments inforeign companies include exposure to currency fluctuations and controls, less liquidity, less developed or lessefficient trading markets, less governmental supervision and regulation, lack of comprehensive companyinformation, political instability, greater market volatility, and differing auditing and legal standards.
Further, investments in foreign markets can be affected by a host of factors, including political or socialconditions, diplomatic relations, limitations on removal of funds or assets or imposition of (or change in)exchange control or tax regulations in such markets. Additionally, investments denominated in a foreigncurrency will be subject to changes in exchange rates that may have an adverse effect on the value, price orincome of the investment.These risks are magnified in emerging markets and countries since they generally have less diverse and lessmature economic structures and less stable political systems than those of developed countries.These benchmarks are broad-based indices which are used for illustrative purposes only and have beenselected as they are well known and are easily recognizable by investors. Comparisons to benchmarks havelimitations because benchmarks have volatility and other material characteristics that may differ from theportfolio. For example, investments made for the portfolio may differ significantly in terms of securityholdings, industry weightings and asset allocation from those of the benchmark. Accordingly, investmentresults and volatility of the portfolio may differ from those of the benchmark. Also, the indices noted in thispresentation are unmanaged, are not available for direct investment, and are not subject to management fees,transaction costs or other types of expenses that the portfolio may incur. In addition, the performance of theindices reflects reinvestment of dividends and, where applicable, capital gain distributions. Therefore, investorsshould carefully consider these limitations and differences when evaluating the comparative benchmark dataperformance.The information regarding the index is included merely to show the general trends in the periods indicatedand is not intended to imply that the portfolio was similar to the index in composition or risk.The strategy may use alternative investment techniques (such as derivatives) which carry additional risks. Thelow initial margin deposits normally required to establish a position in such instruments may permit a highdegree of leverage. As a result, a relatively small movement in the price of a contract may result in a profit orloss that is high in proportion to the amount of funds actually placed as initial margin and may result in adisproportionate loss exceeding any margin deposited. Transactions in over-the-counter derivatives mayinvolve additional risk as there is no exchange on which to close out a position, only the original counterparty.Such transactions may therefore be difficult to liquidate, to value, or to assess the exposure. The strategy mayat times use certain types of investment derivatives, such as options, futures, forwards and swaps. Theseinstruments involve risks different from, and in certain cases, greater than, the risks presented by moretraditional investments.Standish sector models use regression analysis such as multi-linear data inputs, panel data, and probitfunction. Variables that the models take into account are: PMI, US Core CPI, Fed Fund rate, 3-month Libor, 3-month T-bill rate, foreign purchases of US Government bonds, Commodity Indices , Capacity Utilization,Deficit as a percent of GDP, S&P 500 return, Chicago Fed Index, IGOV, US output gap, Europe Core CPI, USunemployment rate, EU unemployment rate, and slope of the yield curve. Assumptions made are that samplesare representative of the population for the inference prediction; regression residuals are approximatelynormally distributed, uncorrelated, and have constant volatility; no high degrees of multi-colinearity in theindependent variables; variable sensitivity remains constant in the short term; and no structural shift in theshort term.
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