Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V....

41
Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates Investment Counsel Since 1933

Transcript of Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V....

Page 1: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates

Investment Counsel Since 1933

Page 2: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

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Agenda

I. Corporate Overview

II. Team, Philosophy, & Process

III. Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates

IV. Global Economic & Investment Outlook

V. Appendix

Spän

gler

IQAM

Bon

d N

on-F

inan

cial

Cor

pora

tes

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The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” DeliveredCo

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1933Year Standish was founded

156.4 billion USD in assets under management1

184 employees2

130 investment professionals located in U.S., U.K. and Singapore2

U.S., regional and global mandates

With clients in 43 countries

Investment Strategies and Solutions

Absolute Return Opportunistic Fixed IncomeTax-Sensitive Absolute Return

Multi-Sector Relative Return Global Core Plus

Global Core/Non-U.S. Core

Long Duration

U.S. Core PlusU.S. Core

Short/Intermediate Duration

Cash

Stable Value

Single Sector Relative ReturnEmerging Markets

Global Corporate Credit

Securitized Strategies

Tax-Sensitive

TIPS

Government

Solutions

Liability Driven Investing

Insurance Client Strategies

Liquidity Strategies

ESG/SRI

SB/Standish Overview 4Q 15/01-07-16/BR

Source: Standish as of December 31, 2015.1 Assets under management (AUM) as of December 31, 2015. This figure includes assets managed by Standish personnel acting as dual officers of The Dreyfus Corporation or The Bank of

New York Mellon; high yield assets managed by personnel of Alcentra NY, LLC acting as dual officers of Standish; and mortgage assets managed by personnel of Amherst CapitalManagement LLC acting as dual officers of Standish. Standish, Dreyfus, Alcentra and Amherst Capital are registered investment advisers. Standish, Dreyfus, Alcentra and The Bank of NewYork Mellon are wholly-owned subsidiaries of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation. Amherst Capital is a majority-owned subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation.

2 Includes shared employees of Standish Mellon Asset Management (UK) Limited and MBSC Securities Corporation, both affiliates of Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC(“Standish”), Standish Mellon Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. Limited who provide non-discretionary research services to Standish US and may also serve as sub-adviser to Standish USfor certain client mandates, and employees of Alcentra NY, LLC and Amherst Capital Management LLC acting as dual officers of Standish. These individuals may from time to time act in thecapacity of shared employees of Standish, performing sales, marketing, portfolio management support, research and trading services for certain Standish managed accounts.In addition, Standish is also supported by BNY Mellon Asset Management Operations LLC (“BNYM AM Ops”) which is a legally separate entity that provides services related to all aspects ofIT and operations, including front, middle and back office services through a Service Level Agreement.

Absolute FX

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Standish Investment Resources

SB/Standish Overview 4Q 15/01-07-16/BR

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1 Employee of Standish Mellon Asset Management (UK) Ltd who provides investment management and trading services as shared employees of Standish U.S.2 Employee of Alcentra NY, LLC who provides research and trading services for legacy High Yield and multi-sector strategies; 3 Employee of Standish Mellon Asset Management (Singapore) Pte.Limited who provides non-discretionary research services to Standish US and may also serve as sub-adviser to Standish US for certain client mandates 4 Via service agreement with AlcentraLimited 5Employee of Amherst Capital Management LLC who provides research and trading services for dedicated mortgage and multi-sector strategies. Note: Some investment professionalsperform the same role on more than one product team. CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Javier MurcioMurray Collis3

Howe Chung Wan3

Federico Garcia ZamoraJosephine Shea

Robert Bayston, CFAKaren Gemmett, CFA5

David Fishman, CFA5

Nate Pearson, CFAMarcos Duque, CFA5

Eric Seasholtz5

David Morse, CFAAndrew Catalan, CFA

Matthew Fontaine, CFAChris Barris2

Christine Todd, CFADaniel Rabasco, CFA

Thomas Casey

Daniel Marques, CFAJeffrey Burger, CFA

PORTFOLIO ANALYTICS

SPECIALIZED TRADING

RISK MANAGEMENT

RESEARCH

Corporate Research Sovereign & Currency Research

Rebecca Braeu, PhD, CFANate Hyde, CFA

Rowena Macfarlane1

Javier Murcio Aninda Mitra3

Federico Garcia ZamoraNicholas Tocchio

U.S. Rates & Securitized

Nate Pearson, CFADavid Fishman, CFA5

Karen Gemmett, CFA5

Steven Brinkley5

Marcos Duque, CFAEric Seasholtz5

Tax Sensitive

David Belton, CFADaniel Barton, CFADavid Mann, CFA

Maureen Newman, CFAMark Ryan

Scott Zerneri

Amy Koch, CFAGlobal Head of Fixed Income Trading

Emerging Markets

Prakash Gopalakrishnan3

Rosa VelasquezSarah Percy-Dove3

Milena Ianeva1

Joseph Huang3

David Morse, CFADiana Belman, CFA

Maura Caporale, CFABenjamin Li, CFA

Jonathan Earle, CFABeth Fiore

Joseph Chiurri, CFA

Investment Grade

Kevin Cronk, CFA2

Clark Orsky, CFA2

Stephen Sylvester2

Andrew Sieurin, CFA2

Josephine Shin2

Edward Vietor2

Tim Raeke2

Robert Davis2

Frank Longobardi2Andrew Fahey2

Young Kwon2

Ashley Taylor2

High Yield

David Leduc, CFAChief Executive Officer & Chief Investment Officer

David Leduc, CFAChief Executive Officer & Chief Investment Officer

MULTI-SECTOR

STRATEGIES

Andrew Catalan, CFAMatthew Fontaine, CFA

Max Guimond, CFA, FRM Colyar Pridgen, CFA, FSA, EA

Ryan Miller, ASA

Christine Todd, CFAJames Kaniclides, CFA

Laura Lake, CFAAmanda Abdella, CFA

SOLUTIONS

Boris KozorezJames EddyPaul Correia

David Horsfall, CFARaman Srivastava, CFA

David Leduc, CFA

OPPORTUNISTICFIXED INCOME

Raman Srivastava, CFABrendan Murphy, CFA

Thant Han1

Nate Hyde, CFA

GLOBALFIXED INCOME

David Bowser, CFADavid Horsfall, CFA

U.S. CORE/CORE PLUSFIXED INCOME

LIABILITY DRIVEN INVESTING INSURANCE CLIENT STRATEGIES

SINGLE-SECTOR

STRATEGIES

EMERGING MARKETS DEBT U.S. RATES & SECURITIZED GLOBAL CORPORATE CREDIT

Global Rates & Currency

Bart StiresAustin Jennings

Emerging Markets

Victor Tavares, CFADouglas McEneaney, CFA

William Newton, CFA

Global Corporate Credit

Joseph Pasquale, CFAVinnie Ruschioni2

Global Rates & CurrencyMichael Piersol, CFA

Ian Barnes1

Patrick Savery

Sally Bartunek, CFARyan Lambert, CFA

Global Corporate CreditMichael Lynch

Christopher FrisoliIan Barnes1

Michael Cunningham, CFA2

Amy Lattimore4

Thomas Frangione2

TAX SENSITIVE

Stephan Bonte, CFAMichael Faloon, CFA, FRM

SUSTAINABLE INVESTING

Municipal

Michael Bandar, CFAPaul Rockwood, CFA

Alisa Fitzgerald

David SwallowTyler Doyle

Christopher Dial

Michael Faloon, CFA, FRMVikas Malla, CFA

Douglas Reich, CFADavid Kingsley

U.S. Rates & Securitized

Jeff Nutt, CFA5

Bryan Steele

Liability Driven Investing

James Plunkett

Insurance Strategies

Francis Cifrino

U.S. Rates & Securitized

Patrick GillisAdam Pischel

Emerging Markets

Sally Bartunek, CFARyan Lambert, CFA

David Horsfall, CFADeputy Chief Investment Officer

David Horsfall, CFADeputy Chief Investment Officer

Raman Srivastava, CFADeputy Chief Investment OfficerRaman Srivastava, CFADeputy Chief Investment Officer

John Hosa, CFAStephen Murphy, CFA

Anthony Honko

Amy LowenSara Cummins

SHORTDURATION

Eric Baumhoff, CFABradley Bennett

Linda Lam, CFA, CPAJonathan Mauceli, CFA

STABLE VALUE

Vincent ReinhartChief Economist

Vincent ReinhartChief Economist

Federico Garcia ZamoraRaman Srivastava, CFA

David Horsfall, CFABrendan Murphy, CFA

CURRENCY

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Global Investment Grade Credit TeamTe

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SBGCCQ4012616JB

Portfolio Management

CREDIT COMMITTEECREDIT COMMITTEE MACROECONOMIC RESEARCH COMMITTEEMACROECONOMIC RESEARCH COMMITTEE

Trading

David Morse, CFADirector of Investment Grade Credit

CreditResearch

Kevin Cronk, CFA2 Director of Research Clark Orsky, CFA2 Homebuilders/Materials,

Manufacturing/Machinery, UtilityStephen Sylvester2 Broadcasting, Services, TransportationAndrew Sieurin, CFA2 Consumer Products, Gaming, LeisureJosephine Shin2 HealthcareEdward Vietor2 Cable, TelecommunicationsRobert Davis2 TechnologyAndrew Fahey2 Energy, RetailYoung Kwon2 Food/Beverage/Tobacco,

Metals/Mining, Paper/PackagingTim Raeke2 Chemicals, FinanceFrank Longobardi2 Aerospace/AutosAshley Taylor2 Media/Other

Prakash Gopalakrishnan4 Asia Rosa Velasquez Latin AmericaSarah Percy-Dove4 AsiaMilena Ianeva 1 CEEMEAJoseph Huang4 Asia

Sally Bartunek, CFARyan Lambert, CFA

Amy Lattimore3

Tom Frangione2

Mike Cunningham2

High Yield / Bank Loan AnalystsEmerging Market Corporate Analysts

PortfolioAnalytics

Victor Tavares, CFADouglas McEneaney, CFA

William Newton, CFAVinnie Ruschioni2

1 Employee of Standish Mellon Asset Management (UK) Ltd who provides investment management and trading services as shared employees of Standish U.S.2 Employee of Alcentra NY, LLC who provide research and trading services for legacy High Yield and multi-sector strategies; 3 Via service agreement with Alcentra Limited 4 Employee ofStandish Mellon Asset Management (Singapore) Pte. Limited who provides non-discretionary research services to Standish US and may also serve as sub-adviser to Standish US for certain clientmandates. 5 Employee of Amherst Capital Management LLC who provides research and trading services for dedicated mortgage and multi-sector strategies. Note: Some investmentprofessionals perform the same role on more than one product team. CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are registered trademarks owned by CFA Institute.

Michael LynchIan Barnes1

Christopher Frisoli

David Morse, CFA Building Materials, Environmental, Basics

Maura Caporale, CFA Telecom, Media, IndustrialsBenjamin Li, CFA Utilities, EnergyDiana Belman, CFA Banking, InsuranceJonathan Earle, CFA Consumer , Pharmaceuticals,

Technology, HealthcareBeth Fiore Banking, Finance,

TransportationDavid Fishman, CFA5 REITSJoseph Chiurri, CFA REITS, Retail

Joseph Pasquale, CFA

David Horsfall, CFADeputy Chief Investment Officer

David Horsfall, CFADeputy Chief Investment Officer

Investment Grade Corporate Analysts

Vincent ReinhartChief Economist

Vincent ReinhartChief Economist

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Investment Philosophy – Global CreditTe

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We believe: Success in managing corporate bonds requires both a strong defense against the negative return/risk

asymmetry of individual credits and a strong offense focused on the market’s least efficient quality tiers.

Seeking outperformance demands a team of experienced credit analysts who apply proprietary “ratings and trend” metrics to distinguish deteriorating from stable-to-improving credits.

Effective fundamental credit research balances a bottom-up perspective with the firm’s macro or top-down view.

A chief source of excess return is identifying, avoiding, and/or selling potential problem credits.

A final contributor to outperformance can be found in certain niches of the corporate bond market, such as BBBs which can provide higher returns over time due to their disproportionate yields, pattern of ratings migration, and price increase on upgrade.

SBGCCQ4012616JB

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Investment Philosophy – Historical “Proof Statement”Te

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Historical Proof Statement – Standish Approach to Corporate Bonds Historically, bond ratings have been unstable even over very short periods, with migrations increasing in the

lower quality tiers.

Baa = BBB; Ba = BB; Caa_C = CCC – C; WR = Withdrawn (e.g. debt, acquisitions, divestitures, etc.)Past performance is no indication of future results

CONCLUSION: Significant incremental return may be available to active managers with the confidence to overweight BBBs and the ability to capture upgrades and avoid downgrades.

Among investment-grade bonds, BBBs (Baas) have exhibited both the most frequent rating changes and the most positive results, with upgrades nearly equaling downgrades.

Because of their disproportionate yield advantage, BBBs have historically outperformed under 2 of 3 possible rating scenarios.

SBGCCQ4012616JB

Average One-Year Rating Migrations, 1970-2015Rating Aaa Aa A Baa Ba B Caa Ca-C Default WRAaa 87.48% 8.14% 0.59% 0.06% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 3.71%Aa 0.83% 85.15% 8.45% 0.44% 0.06% 0.04% 0.02% 0.00% 0.02% 4.99%A 0.06% 2.57% 86.60% 5.37% 0.51% 0.11% 0.04% 0.01% 0.06% 4.68%Baa 0.04% 0.16% 4.30% 85.44% 3.74% 0.69% 0.16% 0.02% 0.18% 5.26%Ba 0.01% 0.04% 0.47% 6.17% 76.17% 7.17% 0.68% 0.12% 0.92% 8.25%B 0.01% 0.03% 0.15% 0.45% 4.78% 73.52% 6.49% 0.56% 3.41% 10.60%Caa 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% 0.11% 0.42% 7.02% 66.77% 2.81% 8.52% 14.32%Ca-C 0.00% 0.00% 0.06% 0.00% 0.62% 2.46% 9.47% 39.59% 24.09% 23.71%Source: M oody's as o f December 31, 2015.

Scenario “Probability”Spread

Impact (Bps)Incremental

Return “Probability”Spread

Impact (Bps)Incremental

ReturnDowngrade 6.04% +63 -3.34% 4.62% +264 -16.78%Upgrade 2.63% -4 1.35% 4.49% -18 2.96%No Change 86.60% - 1.07% 85.44% - 1.70%

Single A BBB

Sources: M oody's as o f 12/31/2014 for rating migration probabilities. Barclays POINT data from 1/1/1992 to 12/31/2014 and Standish calculation for spread impact. Incremental Return calculations assume a duration o f 7 years.

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Fundamental Credit Research

► Understand key players, industry evolution, likely successful business models

► Employ proprietary valuation models to help set portfolio industry weights

► Participate in key industry events and visit companies

► Conduct one-on-ones with key senior management

► Apply financial and scenario analysis to individual issuers

► Compare resulting internal valuations to third-party and market views

► Examine company's liquidity and access to capital

► Review issuer's capital structure for bonds offering best risk/return profiles

► Review key covenants ► Develop asset valuation / recovery analysis

► Credit team’s diversified, model portfolio► Proprietary ratings and credit momentum

1 = Rapidly improving credit

2 = Improving credit

3 = Stable credit

4 = Deteriorating credit

5 = Rapidly deteriorating credit

ManagementManagement

Key Financial MeasuresKey Financial Measures

Financial FlexibilityFinancial Flexibility

Bondholder ProtectionBondholder Protection

BEST IDEASBEST IDEAS

Industry Structure & Dynamics

Industry Structure & Dynamics

Key Inputs

Standish Internal Credit Rating

Source: Standish . For illustrative purposes only.

Team

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SBGCCQ4012616JB

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Corporate Trading

Dedicated team of experienced corporate traders Industry specialists; e.g. telecom, banks, utilities, etc.

Deep understanding of relative value within assigned industries

Direct relationships with trading counterparts on “sell side”

Interaction with other sector traders at Standish; e.g. high yield, global, liquid products

Seeks best execution in the marketplace

Integral part of the portfolio management team Situated in close proximity to portfolio managers and analysts

Expected to add value, not just execute orders

Provide trading view in credit and portfolio discussions

Recommend optimal bond selection within issuers’ capital structures

Team

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SBGCCQ4012616JB

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Sector Model SummaryTe

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Model R-squared Sector Actual Fair Value

Attractiveness Score (Stand. Dev.)

Forecast Value

Attractiveness Score (Stand. Dev.)

Total Relative Value Score

84% Long Corporate OAS (bps) 263 224 1.5 238 0.9 2.481% High Yield (bps) 749 650 1.0 669 0.8 1.873% 10y TIPS break-even CPI (%) 1.43 1.45 0.1 1.74 1.5 1.683% US Investment Grade Credit (bps) 197 162 1.0 181 0.4 1.483% EM Local Bond Yield (%) 6.85 6.80 0.2 6.58 1.0 1.196% Mortgage Pass Throughs (bps) 107 104 0.2 100 0.5 0.787% Emerging Markets (bps) 483 463 0.1 451 0.2 0.494% Asian Credit Spread (bps) 319 332 -0.4 338 -0.6 -1.081% European High Yield Bonds (bps) 609 672 -0.3 761 -0.8 -1.277% 6m G10 FX Carry TR (%) -0.55 -5.00 -1.3 -2.21 -0.5 -1.794% 10y Treasury Interest Rates (%) 1.74 2.20 -0.9 2.48 -1.5 -2.487% 10y Gilt Rate (%) 1.45 2.18 -1.3 2.10 -1.2 -2.595% 2s-10s Treasury Yield Slope (%) 0.96 1.52 -1.4 1.50 -1.3 -2.775% Implied Rate Volatility (bps) 85 75 -1.7 77 -1.3 -3.087% European Corp. Bonds (bps) 156 197 -1.1 227 -1.9 -3.085% 10y Bund Rate (%) 0.23 1.24 -2.0 1.04 -1.6 -3.790% High Yield Bank Loan Spread (bps) 456 604 -1.9 614 -2.1 -4.0

Six Month ForecastCurrent Fair Value

-6

-4

-2

0

2

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LongCorporateOAS (bps)

High Yie ld(bps)

10y TIPSbreak-even

CPI (%)

USInvestment

Grade Credit(bps)

EM LocalBond Yield

(%)

MortgagePass

Throughs(bps)

EmergingMarkets

(bps)

Asian CreditSpread (bps)

EuropeanHigh Yie ld

Bonds (bps)

6m G10 FXCarry TR (%)

10y TreasuryInterest

Rates (%)

10y Gilt Rate(%)

2s-10sTreasury

Yield Slope(%)

Implied RateVolatility

(bps)

EuropeanCorp. Bonds

(bps)

10y BundRate (%)

High Yie ldBank Loan

Spread (bps)

Stan

dard

Dev

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Current Value Forecast Value Total Relative Score

Source: Standish as of February 29, 2016. For illustrative purposes only.

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Investment Grade Model as of 2/29/16

-200

-100

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500

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Feb-98 Feb-00 Feb-02 Feb-04 Feb-06 Feb-08 Feb-10 Feb-12 Feb-14 Feb-16

Spre

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bp)

Investment Grade Actual Spread Investment Grade Spread Residuals Investment Grade Fair Spread

Investment Grade Model

Proprietary Investment Grade Corporate model seeks to explain the current level of option adjusted spreads of the Barclays Credit Corp Index.

Factors:

− Capacity Utilization

− Net Percentage of Senior Loan Officers reporting tightening standards

− Ratio of CAPEX vs. Depreciation Expense

− Implied Volatility (VIX)

Source: Standish as of February 29, 2016. For illustrative purposes only. Sector models are run monthly and are subject to change.

Actual Spread (2/29/16) 197

Model Fair Value 162

Residual 35.4

Standard Deviation 1.0

2/29/16 2/29/15 ChangeVariable Impact

Capacity Utilization%(-1) 77.1 78.7 -1.60 13Net % of Respondents Tightening Stds. - C&I Loans, Large/Medium 8.2 -5.5 13.70 9

Ratio of CAPEX vs. Depreciation Expense 1.6 1.7 -0.10 -6

Implied Volatility (VIX) 20.6 13.3 7.30 17

R2 81%

Variable Levels

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Investment Process – Industry WeightsTe

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Proprietary ranking model is used to support analysis of industry weightings.

Industry mean-variance analysis and risk parameter constraints aim to identify optimal min/max weightings.

Model incorporates objective and subjective inputs for fundamentals, momentum, and valuation

Research analyst input and discussion integrated into portfolio construction

Fundamentals Momentum Valuation

Leverage Internal Ratings Historical Spreads

Profitability External Ratings Relative Spreads

Business Prospects Sentiment Fair Value

SBGCCQ4012616JB

Source: Standish. For illustrative purposes only.Note: Portfolio managers may use some or all of the techniques described in this document.

October 10, 2012 Index Weights

Ave. OAS

Lower Bound

Multiplier

Upper Bound

Multiplier

Range Low

Range High Leverage Profit Business

ProspectsYield Level

Spread Regression Sentiment S&P Moody's Fitch Standish Overall

Score

Corporate 147Reits 1.36 181 0.25 2.00 0.34 2.72 Decreasing Increasing Positive High Fair Positive Stable Stable Stable Positive 8.5

Paper 0.26 219 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.65 Unchanged Unchanged Stable High Cheap Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 6.7

Finance Companies 2.80 168 0.65 1.50 1.82 4.20 Decreasing Increasing Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 6.1

M etals & M ining 2.36 223 0.25 2.00 0.59 4.72 Increasing Unchanged Stable High Cheap Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 6.1

Life Insurance 2.04 215 0.25 2.00 0.51 4.08 Unchanged Unchanged Stable High Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.7

Transportation 1.62 156 0.25 2.00 0.41 3.24 Unchanged Increasing Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.6

M edia-Noncable 1.29 163 0.25 2.00 0.32 2.58 Unchanged Increasing Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.6

P&C 1.61 172 0.25 2.00 0.40 3.22 Unchanged Increasing Stable Index Fair Stable Negative Stable Stable Stable 5.4

Supermarkets 0.34 228 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.85 Unchanged Decreasing Negative High Cheap Stable Negative Negative Stable Stable 5.2

Banking 19.15 161 0.75 1.25 14.36 23.94 Decreasing Increasing Stable Index Fair Negative Negative Negative Negative Stable 5.0

Telecom 5.34 165 0.65 1.50 3.47 8.01 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.0

Electric 6.01 130 0.65 1.50 3.91 9.02 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.0

Energy 5.37 137 0.30 1.75 1.61 9.40 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.0

Technology 3.65 122 0.30 1.75 1.10 6.39 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.0

Natural Gas 2.70 174 0.25 2.00 0.68 5.40 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.0

M edia-Cable 1.97 152 0.25 2.00 0.49 3.94 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.0

Chemicals 1.40 119 0.25 2.00 0.35 2.80 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.0

Health Insurance 0.74 148 0.25 2.00 0.19 1.48 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 5.0

Brokerage 0.59 212 0.25 2.00 0.15 1.18 Unchanged Unchanged Stable High Cheap Negative Negative Negative Negative Negative 5.0

Consumer Cyclical 4.37 130 0.60 1.50 2.62 6.56 Unchanged Unchanged Positive Index Rich Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 4.6

Food/Beverage 3.52 96 0.40 1.75 1.41 6.16 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Low Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 4.3

Health Care 1.36 116 0.25 2.00 0.34 2.72 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Low Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 4.3

Capital Goods 3.80 107 0.30 2.00 1.14 7.60 Unchanged Increasing Stable Low Rich Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 3.9

Consumer Products 0.90 100 0.25 2.00 0.23 1.80 Unchanged Decreasing Stable Low Fair Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable 3.8

Tobacco 0.86 137 0.25 2.00 0.22 1.72 Unchanged Unchanged Stable Index Rich Negative Stable Stable Stable Stable 3.4

Pharmaceuticals 3.30 87 0.50 1.50 1.65 4.95 Increasing Decreasing Stable Low Fair Stable Stable Negative Negative Stable 2.9

N o n-C o rpo rate

Foreign Agency 5.35 58 0.33 1.75 1.77 9.36

Supranational 5.30 23 0.33 1.75 1.75 9.28

Sovereigns 4.79 114 0.33 1.75 1.58 8.38

Foreign Local Govt 5.37 125 0.33 1.75 1.77 9.40

Total 99.5

Sector Statistics Risk Allowance Fundamentals Valuation Monentum / Outlooks

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Standish & Sustainable InvestingTe

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Standish Sustainable Investing Timeline

|May 2007

Dec2012

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|March2013

May2013

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|June2013

Aug2013

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|Sep

2013

|Nov2013

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|Dec2013

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|Feb

2014Apr

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|June2014

Aug2014

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|Jan

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June 2015

Signatory to UNPRI

Adam Seitchik and Sarah Cleveland Consulting provides ESG consulting training to staff.

Contract with MSCI to provide

research

Begin incorporating MSCI Research into credit process

Standish turns on ESG data in POINT®

Forms ESG Working Group

Purchases first green bond

ESG data available in portfolio management system

Becomes member of Green Bond Working Group

ESG screens available in CRD compliance.All analysts trained on Bloomberg ESG

Becomes U.S. Climate Change Investor Signatory

Creates ESG Sovereign Model

Becomes EXCO member of Green Bond Principles

Hires Sustainalytics to perform ESG gap analysis

ESG introduced as performance goal for all investment staff

Appoints Head of Sustainable Investing

Contracts with KLD for inclusion of SRI screens in CRD compliance

As of 12/31/15, Standish manages $14.9 billion in SRI mandates with the oldest active mandate dating back to 1989.

Publishes ESG and Sustainability Investment Policy

December2015

|

Formal Rollout of proprietary Standish Corporate ESG Risk Metrics & Analytics

SBGCCQ4012616JB

Page 14: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

13

Standish & ESGTe

am, P

hilo

soph

y, &

Pro

cess

How is ESG incorporated into Standish’s research and investment process? Research: Analysts evaluate ESG as they would other relevant investment criteria (financial strength, competitive

position, etc.)

Depending on sector, we apply different emphasis to E, S, or G.

Utilize company filings, MSCI research and Bloomberg data as sources for ESG research.

Investment: Consider if externalities could affect the credit during our holding period.

ESG Incorporated in

Investment Process

Industrials

Financials

UtilitiesEE SS GG

EE

SS GG

SS GG

SovereignSS GG

EE

EE

SBGCCQ4012616JB

Page 15: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

14

Corporate Bond Management – Standish Differentiators

Security selection philosophy Security selection is premised on identifying stable to improving credits that are trading at attractive

valuations while avoiding deteriorating credits given the asymmetric risk/return profile of corporate bonds.

Team approach The firm’s macro and relative value views serve as the framework for the construction of portfolios, which are

further based on the interaction of sector heads who meet regularly to formulate market views using quantitative models to provide a disciplined approach for discussion and analysis.

Credit decisions are driven by experienced analysts employing a proprietary ratings and credit trend methodology. Portfolio construction benefits from this integrated team approach consisting of portfolio managers, analysts, and traders working in close proximity.

Right-sized Standish has a large enough asset-base to devote ample resources to the corporate sector, yet small enough

that security selection decisions have a material impact on returns.

Customization to meet client objectives Mandates can be tailored to meet specific guidelines while drawing from the best ideas across specialized

strategies.

Team

, Phi

loso

phy,

& P

roce

ss

SBGCCQ4012616JB

Page 16: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

15

Portfolio PerformanceSp

ängl

er IQ

AM B

ond

Non

-Fin

anci

al C

orpo

rate

sTO BE UPDATED

Performance (Gross) as of 2/29/16

Net Perf. (Fund NAV) -0.41 -3.97 1.34

Value added (Net) -1.02 -4.26 -1.42

Market Value:

*Since Inception: 4/16/12

€ 55,360,492

-0.08

-2.89

2.44

0.610.29

2.76

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

YTD 1 Year Since Inception*

Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates Merrill Lynch EMU Corporate Non-Financial

Page 17: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

16

Performance Attribution Year-To-DateSp

ängl

er IQ

AM B

ond

Non

-Fin

anci

al C

orpo

rate

s

Attribution (Gross) as of 2/29/2016 YTD (%)Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial CorporateS Fund (Gross) -0.08ML EMU Corporate 0.61Value Added -0.69

Contributions to Value Added (Gross)Yield Curve 0.46Asset Allocation -0.23Security Selection -0.91Pricing Differences & Intra-Day 0.00FX Allocation & Hedging -0.02Total -0.69

Top Positive Contributors YTD (%)

ENELIM 0.03KMI 0.03HUWHY 0.01Top Negative ContributorsFCX -0.31TLMCN -0.10ETP -0.06

Page 18: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

17

Portfolio RiskSp

ängl

er IQ

AM B

ond

Non

-Fin

anci

al C

orpo

rate

s

Source: Barclays POINT ® as of February 29, 2016.

Page 19: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

18

Portfolio Characteristics as of 2/29/16Sp

ängl

er IQ

AM B

ond

Non

-Fin

anci

al C

orpo

rate

s

Portfolio Benchmark

Effective Duration 3.9 2.9

Average Spread to Bunds 155 125

Average Coupon 3.04 3.48

Average Maturity 4.2 3.6Average Quality BBB+ BBB+

Characteristics

Euro 60.7% Euro 100.0%

US Dollar 33.2% US Dollar

Pound 6.1% Sterling

Other 0.0% Other

Bond Currency Breakdown %Portfolio Benchmark

AAA 4.8% AAA 0.3%

AA 8.1% AA 8.7%

A 30.3% A 34.0%

BBB 53.8% BBB 57.0%

BB 2.2% BB 0.0%

B & Below 0.9% B 0.0%

Benchmark

RatingsPortfolio

Relative Portfolio Statistics (CTD)

0.970.32

0.200.140.13

0.020.010.00

-0.01-0.06-0.07-0.11

-0.12-0.12

-0.28

-2 -1 0 1 2

CONSUMER_NON_CYCLCONSUMER_CYCLICAL

ENERGYCOMMUNICATIONS

TECHNOLOGYBASIC_INDUSTRY

INDUSTRIAL_OTHERCAPITAL_GOODS

UTILITY_OTHERFINANCE_COMPANIES

ELECTRICTRANSPORTATION

NATURAL_GASREITS

OWNED_NO_GUARANTEE

S&P Rating* Portfolio Benchmark OverweightANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV NV. A- 0.11 0.00 0.11BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AG (BMW). A 0.12 0.01 0.11KRAFT HEINZ CO/THE. BBB- 0.10 0.00 0.10PERNOD-RICARD SA. BBB- 0.11 0.01 0.10VOLKSWAGEN AG. BBB+ 0.10 0.02 0.08SKY PLC. BBB 0.07 0.00 0.07APPLE INC. AA+ 0.07 0.00 0.07TELEFONICA SA. BBB 0.09 0.03 0.06ALLERGAN PLC. BBB- 0.06 0.00 0.06BP PLC. A- 0.06 0.00 0.06Total 2.06 0.94 0.82

Top 10 Overweight Corporate Issuers (CTD)

Page 20: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

19

Global Outlook & ForecastG

loba

l Eco

nom

ic &

Inve

stm

ent O

utlo

ok

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

January 2016

Survey 2015E 2016F 2015F 2016F 2015E 2016F 2015E 2016F

United States 2.4 2.4 0.2 1.7 2.5 2.5 0.2 1.7

Japan 0.7 1.2 0.8 1.1 0.6 1.2 0.8 0.7

United Kingdom 2.3 2.3 0.2 1.3 2.4 2.3 0.1 1.3

Euro-zone 1.5 1.7 0.1 0.9 1.5 1.7 0.1 1.0

China 6.8 6.2 1.9 1.6 6.9 6.5 1.5 1.7

Russia -3.8 -0.3 15.5 7.5 -3.8 -0.2 13.5 7.3

Brazil -3.5 -2.4 10.8 6.5 -3.5 -2.2 10.4 6.6

Developed Markets 1.9 2.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 2.1 0.3 1.5

Emerging Markets 3.9 4.1 6.9 6.1 3.9 4.3 6.3 5.8

Global 3.0 3.2 4.1 4.0 3.1 3.6 3.7 3.9

Real GDP (%) Inflation (%) Real GDP (%) Inflation (%)Consensus EconomicsStandish

Source: Standish and the International Monetary Fund as of January 2016.E= Expected; F= Forecast

Page 21: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

20

Glo

bal E

cono

mic

& In

vest

men

t Out

look

Global Economic Outlook for Q1 2016

We expect U.S. growth to continue to be driven by a strong consumer and improving labor market.

While base effects should drive U.S. headline inflation, we expect core measures to be more subdued and this may have an impact on the Fed’s hiking cycle.

The Eurozone recovery remains on track, with growth supported by personal consumption. However, we believe inflation will remain subdued given commodity weakness and may lead the European Central Bank to expand their quantitative easing program further.

As China’s economy rebalances, the industrial and property market slowdown is expected to weigh on global growth and commodity prices in 2016.

We anticipate further divergence in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Whilst CEE will benefit from its close links to the recovering Eurozone, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) will lag due to its dependence on commodities. However, we expect CIS should see some normalization in economic conditions in 2016.

We believe difficult challenges will constrain Latin America in 2016, and growth will remain below potential.

Please see important disclosures at the end of this presentation.

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

Page 22: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

21

Strong Consumption Supporting U.S. Growth

Consumption will likely be supported by a continued strong labor market, although positive impulses of energy savings may moderate.

Government spending and positive base effects in fixed asset investment is expected to offset the ongoing drag of trade associated with dollar strength.

Glo

bal E

cono

mic

& In

vest

men

t Out

look

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

Source: Standish and Bureau of Economic Analysis as of December 2015

Component Contribution to Real GDP Growth

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015

Cont

ribut

ion

to P

erce

nt C

hang

e in

Real

GD

P(4

Qtr

. Mov

ing

Ave

rage

)

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Real Business Fixed Investment Real Net Exports Real Government

Page 23: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

22

Base Effects Should Lead to Higher Headline Inflation…G

loba

l Eco

nom

ic &

Inve

stm

ent O

utlo

ok

Base effects will drive U.S. inflation higher in the first quarter assuming stable energy prices.

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

Source: Bloomberg as of January 2015

CPI and Gasoline Percent Growth

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

Year

to Y

ear P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Year

to Y

ear P

erce

nt C

hang

eCPI (LHS) Gasoline (RHS)

Implied Y/Y % Change Assuming Stable Gasoline Prices

Page 24: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

23

…Though Core Measures Should Be More SubduedG

loba

l Eco

nom

ic &

Inve

stm

ent O

utlo

ok

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

We believe increases in measures of core inflation should be modest with the upside risks associated with the tightening labor market in the second half of 2016.

The increased gap between PCE1 and CPI2 continues to be driven by the weight of housing and the method used to estimate medical care costs which may cause more uncertainty among policy makers.

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5Ye

ar to

Yea

r Per

cent

Cha

nge

Difference (CPI-PCE) Core CPI Core PCE

1PCE = Personal Consumption Expenditure2CPI = Consumer Price IndexSource: BLS and BEA as of January 2016

Page 25: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

24

Eurozone Recovery Remains on Track…

Whilst shallow by historical standards, we expect the Eurozone recovery to remain resilient.

Just as in the U.S., household consumption is expected to be the key driver of growth in 2016. Household confidence continues to grow, particularly as unemployment decreases. Fiscal loosening will also support growth, whilst net exports are expected to be negligible in terms of contribution.

A slowdown in Spain – which has been on an accelerated pace of recovery – may be compensated by further structural improvements in Italy and cyclical factors in Germany.

Glo

bal E

cono

mic

& In

vest

men

t Out

look

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

Source: Standish as of January 2016

Eurozone GDP Growth

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Eurozone France Germany Italy Spain

Perc

ent G

row

th in

Rea

l GD

P

2015 2016 Forecast 2017 Forecast

Page 26: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

25

...however Inflation is Likely to Fall Short of ECB Expectations G

loba

l Eco

nom

ic &

Inve

stm

ent O

utlo

ok

Given the shallowness of the recovery, we believe output gaps will persist for some time.

ECB inflation expectations are significantly more optimistic than our own. Without significant further weakness in the euro, they are unlikely to be achieved.

We feel that the ECB is likely to need to downgrade its inflation expectations at its March 2016 meeting, and will need to engage in dovish communications to justify the significant divergence from 2% target.

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

Eurozone Inflation Eurozone Inflation

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

Year

to Y

ear P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Headline CPI Core CPI

-0.4

-0.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Eurozone France Germany Italy Spain

Annu

al A

vera

ge C

PI P

erce

nt C

hang

e

2015 2016 Forecast 2017 Forecast

Source: Bloomberg as of January 2016

Page 27: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

26

The Domestic Economy Justifies BoE Monetary Policy Normalization G

loba

l Eco

nom

ic &

Inve

stm

ent O

utlo

ok

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

We expect the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates for the first time since 2008 in late H1 2016 following the Fed’s initial rate hike.

November 2015 is expected to have marked a turning point in the inflation cycle in the U.K., and significant increases in the headline rate of inflation will occur in Q1 2016.

The labor market will also continue to support the normalization. Data continues to highlight strong employment dynamics but also slight head winds to further wage growth.

Source: Bloomberg as of January 2016

UK Inflation

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

Year

to Y

ear P

erce

nt C

hang

e

UK Inflation

UK Unemployment and Wages

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5.5

6

6.5

7

7.5

8

8.5

Year

to Y

ear P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Perc

ent o

f Lab

or F

orce

Une

mpl

oyed

UK Unemployment Rate (LHS)Weekly Earnings (Excluding Bonuses) (RHS)

Page 28: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

27

We Expect there to be Continued Divergence in Eastern Europe

Central and Eastern Europe will continue to be closely connected to the Eurozone recovery. We expect growth to remain robust, and inflation to move upwards towards central bank targets by the end of 2016.

We expect the Commonwealth of Independent States will continue to recover from its commodity/currency induced recessions, and should see some normalization in economic conditions in 2016. Therefore, we expect growth will slowly return to the region and inflation will come down from their extremely elevated levels.

Glo

bal E

cono

mic

& In

vest

men

t Out

look

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

1PMI = Purchasing Managers IndexSource: Bloomberg as of January 2015

Manufacturing PMIs1 Industrial Production

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Inde

xPoland Czech Republic Turkey Hungary

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Year

to Y

ear P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Ukraine Russia Kazakhstan

Page 29: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

28

Latin American Real GDP Growth Latin American 12 Month Cumulative Trade Balance

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Year

to Y

ear P

erce

nt C

hang

eBrazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru

-20000

-15000

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Mill

ions

of U

SD

Brazil Chile ColombiaMexico Peru Argentina

Difficult Challenges Will Constrain Latin American Growth in 2016

Growth rates in Latin America remain below potential. Idiosyncratic risk will keep Brazil in a recession in 2016, a second year of economic contraction. Despite better macroeconomic policy management in Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, the combined impact of sluggish developed economies, weak commodity prices and normalization of U.S. interest rates will present a difficult challenge, which will limit 2016 growth to rates similar to those in 2015.

Trade balances have not benefited yet from weak currencies in Latin America. The sharp decline in commodity prices and weak global growth have prevented exports from accelerating. Any improvement has been more related to the deceleration in domestic demand. The most notable example is Brazil, where the deep recession has allowed the trade surplus to reach near record levels.

Glo

bal E

cono

mic

& In

vest

men

t Out

look

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

Source: Bloomberg as of January 2016

Page 30: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

29

We Expect Chinese Growth to Slow As Economy Rebalances

We expect China’s industrial and property market slowdown will weigh on global growth and commodity prices in 2016.

Despite the slowdown, Chinese service activity is holding up better than manufacturing.

Glo

bal E

cono

mic

& In

vest

men

t Out

look

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

Source: CFIC, Standish, Bloomberg as of January 2016

Industrial Production and Real GDP Growth Purchasing Manager's Indices

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Year

to Y

ear P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Year

to Y

ear P

erce

nt C

hang

e

Industrial Production (LHS) GDP Growth (RHS)

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

PMI I

ndex

( >

50 in

dica

tes e

xpan

sion

; <50

in

dica

tes c

ontr

actio

n)

Caixin Services PMI Caixin Manufacturing PMI

Page 31: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

30

Rising Currency Pressure Could Curtail Much Further Scope For Monetary Easing

Glo

bal E

cono

mic

& In

vest

men

t Out

look

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

Chinese Foreign Exchange Reserves

6.0

6.1

6.2

6.3

6.4

6.5

6.6

6.7

6.8

6.9

7.0

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Mar-10 Sep-10 Mar-11 Sep-11 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16

USD

CNY

Billi

ons o

f USD

FX Reserves, USD bln (LHS) USDCNY (RHS)

Source: CEI, Bloomberg, Standish as of January 2016

Page 32: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

31

Glo

bal E

cono

mic

& In

vest

men

t Out

look

Global Investment Outlook for Q1 2016

In response to heightened uncertainty in our global economic outlook and increased volatility in financial markets, portfolios have moderated risk budgets in the fourth quarter, particularly in areas of corporate credit and emerging markets.

We believe that the market is currently underpricing the likely number of rate hikes by the Fed in 2016 and 2017 though rising credit defaults and wider credit spreads have led to tighter financial conditions that will likely keep expectations below Fed projections. While there is some scope for higher U.S. rates and a flatter yield curve, our risk budgets in duration and curve remain modest.

We are cautious on corporate credit spreads. Despite valuations that are towards the higher end of the range during non-recessionary periods, deteriorating fundamentals, poor technicals and increased liquidity premiums generally warrant neutral positioning.

The divergence of monetary policy between the U.S. and the rest of the world has been largely priced into FX markets. We expect the general trend of dollar strength to moderate in 2016 and relative value between specific currencies to offer better opportunities. We expect modest depreciation of the Chinese yuan and related currencies versus the dollar and have increased long dollar/short Asian currency positions.

In emerging markets, we are cautious on local rates. We expect growth in the emerging world to continue to decelerate at a moderate pace, as economies rebalance to significantly lower commodity prices. We anticipate further divergence within this space, as many countries continue to struggle with much needed reforms following the downturn in commodity prices. Inflation, on the other hand, could surprise on the upside especially in the case of countries where currencies have depreciated significantly versus the U.S. dollar.

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

Page 33: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

32

Market Underpricing Fed Projections For Tightening

The market is underpricing the median projections from the Fed for tightening in the coming years. Global growth and inflation concerns have kept expectations for rate hikes low but a tightening labor market in the U.S. raises core inflation risks and could result in expectations moving closer to Fed projections. In this scenario, there is further room for flattening in the yield curve.

Glo

bal E

cono

mic

& In

vest

men

t Out

look

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

Source: Bloomberg as of January 2016

Federal Open Market Committee Projections

2015 2016 2017 2018 Longer Term-1

0

1

2

3

4

5Fe

dera

l Fun

ds R

ate

(% te

rms)

Minutes Dec-15 Jun-15 Median Sep-15 Median Dec-15 Median OIS1

Page 34: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

33

Typically, Default Rates Lag Monetary Policy Changes, Not Lead

Corporate default rates have generally followed a declining trend during the early stages of Fed hiking cycles. Similar to 1999, the Fed is currently removing policy accommodation when default rates are already trending higher. Higher defaults and wider credit spreads from historically low levels contribute to tighter financial conditions which may limit the amount of tightening by the Fed in this cycle.

While we believe the market will likely raise their expectations for the number of hikes to occur in 2016 and 2017 as the labor market continues to tighten, we also believe it is unlikely that the Fed reaches their longer term equilibrium rate in this cycle, which limits future changes in the overall level of rates as well as in the shape of the curve.

Glo

bal E

cono

mic

& In

vest

men

t Out

look

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

Source: Bloomberg as of January 2016

Fed's Five-year Forward Breakeven Inflation Rate

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

Perc

ent

5y5y breakeven inflation

2.4% Implied Fed CPI Target

5-10 years

1.7% Consensus for 2016

2.6% UMICH Survey 5-10 Year Expectations

Page 35: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

34

Corporate Spreads are at Wide End of Non-Recessionary PeriodsG

loba

l Eco

nom

ic &

Inve

stm

ent O

utlo

ok

Provided that corporate spreads are not signaling the start of a recession, this could present some buying opportunities.

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

Source: Bloomberg as of January 2016

Corporate Spreads

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Perc

enta

ge P

oint

s

Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index

Page 36: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

35

TIPS Are AttractiveG

loba

l Eco

nom

ic &

Inve

stm

ent O

utlo

ok

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

Source: Bloomberg as of January 2016

Fed's Five-year Forward Breakeven Inflation Rate

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.3

3.5

Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

Perc

ent

5y5y breakeven inflation

2.4% Implied Fed CPI Target

5-10 years

1.7% Consensus for 2016

2.6% UMICH Survey 5-10 Year Expectations

TIPS valuations imply long run inflation expectations that are well below both near term and long term forecasts. Negative sentiment surrounding recent energy price declines and increased liquidity premiums have driven TIPS to cheap levels.

Headline and core inflation measures are expected to rise in 2016 which should result in improved valuations for TIPS.

Page 37: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

36

Rate Divergence Largely Reflected in U.S. Dollar StrengthG

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l Eco

nom

ic &

Inve

stm

ent O

utlo

ok

Many countries continue to struggle with much needed reforms following the downturn in commodity prices. While valuations have become more attractive and pockets of opportunity exist in higher quality parts of the market, portfolio risk budgets are low in this area.

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

1DXY = U.S. Dollar IndexSource: Bloomberg as of January 2016

U.S. Dollar and 2 Year Average Rate Differential

-1.2

-0.7

-0.2

0.3

0.8

1.3

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

Rate

Diff

eren

tial (

Perc

ent)

DXY

DXY (LHS) 2 year avg rate differential (RHS)1

Page 38: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

37

We Expect Continued Divergence in Emerging MarketsG

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In emerging markets, we are cautious on local rates. We expect growth in the emerging world to continue to decelerate at a moderate pace, as economies rebalance to significantly lower commodity prices. We anticipate further divergence within this space, as many countries continue to struggle with much needed reforms following the downturn in commodity prices. Inflation, on the other hand, could surprise on the upside especially in the case of countries where currencies have depreciated significantly versus the U.S. dollar.

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

Emerging Market 10-year Yields

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Jan-16

Perc

ent Y

ield

Turkey Brazil Mexico South Africa

Source: Bloomberg as of January 2016

Page 39: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

38

Standish Proprietary Sector Models

Source: Standish as of December 31, 2015. For illustrative purposes only.

Model R-squared Sector Actual Fair Value

Attractiveness Score (Stand. Dev.)

Forecast Value

Attractiveness Score (Stand. Dev.)

Total Relative Value Score

83% EM Local Bond Yield (%) 7.13 6.77 1.2 6.78 1.2 2.575% Implied Rate Volatility (bps) 82 82 0.0 93 1.8 1.873% 10y TIPS break-even CPI (%) 1.58 1.53 -0.3 1.96 1.8 1.681% High Yield (bps) 696 600 1.0 643 0.5 1.584% Long Corporate OAS (bps) 227 204 0.9 224 0.1 1.081% European High Yield Bonds (bps) 536 453 0.4 489 0.2 0.787% Emerging Markets (bps) 446 408 0.3 431 0.1 0.477% 6m G10 FX Carry TR (%) -3.01 -2.45 0.2 -3.39 -0.1 0.183% US Investment Grade Credit (bps) 165 159 0.2 170 -0.1 0.096% Mortgage Pass Throughs (bps) 98 96 0.1 102 -0.3 -0.194% 10y Treasury Interest Rates (%) 2.27 2.20 0.1 2.43 -0.3 -0.295% 2s-10s Treasury Yield Slope (%) 1.22 1.35 -0.3 1.42 -0.5 -0.887% European Corp. Bonds (bps) 134 139 -0.1 167 -0.9 -1.087% 10y Gilt Rate (%) 1.87 2.41 -1.0 2.54 -1.2 -2.294% Asian Credit Spread (bps) 283 315 -1.0 321 -1.2 -2.285% 10y Bund Rate (%) 0.59 1.27 -1.4 1.38 -1.6 -3.190% High Yield Bank Loan Spread (bps) 448 597 -2.1 572 -1.7 -3.8

Six Month ForecastCurrent Fair Value

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

EM LocalBond Yield

(%)

Implied RateVolatility

(bps)

10y TIPSbreak-even

CPI (%)

High Yie ld(bps)

LongCorporateOAS (bps)

EuropeanHigh Yie ld

Bonds (bps)

EmergingMarkets (bps)

6m G10 FXCarry TR (%)

USInvestment

Grade Credit(bps)

MortgagePass

Throughs(bps)

10y TreasuryInterest Rates

(%)

2s-10sTreasury Yield

Slope (%)

EuropeanCorp. Bonds

(bps)

10y Gilt Rate(%)

Asian CreditSpread (bps)

10y BundRate (%)

High Yie ldBank Loan

Spread (bps)

Stan

dard

Dev

iatio

n

Current Value Forecast Value Total Relative Score

Glo

bal E

cono

mic

& In

vest

men

t Out

look

GEO/Q4 2015/01-13-16/BR

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39

Important DisclosuresAp

pend

ix

This information is not provided as a sales or advertising communication. It does not constitute investmentadvice. It is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Many factors affect performanceincluding changes in market conditions and interest rates and in response to other economic, political, orfinancial developments. Past performance is not a guide to or indicative of future results. Future returns arenot guaranteed and a loss of principal may occur. There can be no assurance that the investment objectivesoutlined in this presentation will be achieved. This information is not intended to provide specific advice,recommendations or projected returns of any particular Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC(“Standish”) product. Some information contained herein has been obtained from third party sources and hasnot been verified by Standish. Standish makes no representations as to the accuracy or the completeness ofany of the information herein.The enclosed material is confidential and not to be reproduced or redistributed without the prior writtenconsent of Standish. Any statements of opinion constitute only current opinions of Standish, which are subjectto change and which Standish does not undertake to update. Views expressed are subject to change rapidly asmarket and economic conditions dictate. Portfolio composition is also subject to change.The Firm is defined as Standish Mellon Asset Management Company LLC ("Standish"), a registered investmentadvisor and wholly owned subsidiary of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation.BNY Mellon Investment Management is one of the world’s leading investment management organizations andone of the top U.S. wealth managers, encompassing BNY Mellon’s affiliated investment management firms,wealth management organization and global distribution companies. BNY Mellon is the corporate brand ofThe Bank of New York Mellon Corporation and may also be used as a generic term to reference theCorporation as a whole or its various subsidiaries generally. Products and services may be provided undervarious brand names and in various countries by subsidiaries, affiliates, and joint ventures of The Bank of NewYork Mellon Corporation where authorized and regulated as required within each jurisdiction.Standish Mellon Asset Management (UK) Limited, (“Standish (UK)”) is an affiliate of Standish located inLondon, which provides investment management services. Certain employees of Standish (UK) may also act inthe capacity as associated persons of Standish and in such capacity may provide contracted research servicesto Standish.Rankings include assets managed by BNY Mellon Asset Management and BNY Mellon Wealth Management.Each ranking may not include the same mix of firms.This portfolio data should not be relied upon as a complete listing of the Portfolio’s holdings (or top holdings)as information on particular holdings may be withheld if it is in the client’s best interest to do so. Portfolioholdings are subject to change without notice and may not represent current or future portfolio composition.The portfolio date is “as of” the date indicated.There is no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in an account’s portfolio at the time youreceive this report or that securities sold have not been repurchased. The securities discussed do not representan account’s entire portfolio and in the aggregate may represent only a small percentage of an account’sportfolio holdings.It should not be assumed that any of the securities transactions or holdings discussed were or will prove to beprofitable, or that the investment recommendations or decisions we make in the future will be profitable orwill equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein.The allocation distribution and actual percentages may vary from time-to-time. The types of investmentspresented in the allocation chart will not always have the same comparable risks and returns. The actualperformance of the portfolio will depend on the Investment Manager’s ability to identify and accessappropriate investments, and balance assets to maximize return while minimizing its risk. The actualinvestments in the portfolio may or may not be the same or in the same proportion as those shown above.Standish believes giving an proprietary Average Quality Credit rating to the holdings in a portfolio moreaccurately captures its characteristics versus using a single rating agencies ratings. Standish has aratings/number hierarchy whereby we assign a number between 0 (unrated bond) and 21 (S&P or Moody’sAAA) to all bonds in a portfolio based on the ratings of one or more of the rating agencies (with the lower ofthe 2 available agencies ratings prevailing), and then take a weighted numerical average of those bonds (withweighting based on each bonds percentage to the total portfolio assets). The resulting number is thencompared back to the ratings/number hierarchy to determine a portfolio’s average quality. For example, ifMoody’s AAA, S&P AAA= 21, Moody’s A1, S&P A+= 17, Moody’s Baa1 and S&P BBB+=14, Moody’s B1 andS&P B+=7. The numeric average of the 4 equally weighted holdings is 14.75, rounded up to the next wholenumber of 15. 15 converts to an average credit rating of S&P A/Moody’s A2.To the extent the strategy invests in foreign securities, its performance will be influenced by political, socialand economic factors affecting investments in foreign companies. Special risks associated with investments inforeign companies include exposure to currency fluctuations and controls, less liquidity, less developed or lessefficient trading markets, less governmental supervision and regulation, lack of comprehensive companyinformation, political instability, greater market volatility, and differing auditing and legal standards.

Further, investments in foreign markets can be affected by a host of factors, including political or socialconditions, diplomatic relations, limitations on removal of funds or assets or imposition of (or change in)exchange control or tax regulations in such markets. Additionally, investments denominated in a foreigncurrency will be subject to changes in exchange rates that may have an adverse effect on the value, price orincome of the investment.These risks are magnified in emerging markets and countries since they generally have less diverse and lessmature economic structures and less stable political systems than those of developed countries.These benchmarks are broad-based indices which are used for illustrative purposes only and have beenselected as they are well known and are easily recognizable by investors. Comparisons to benchmarks havelimitations because benchmarks have volatility and other material characteristics that may differ from theportfolio. For example, investments made for the portfolio may differ significantly in terms of securityholdings, industry weightings and asset allocation from those of the benchmark. Accordingly, investmentresults and volatility of the portfolio may differ from those of the benchmark. Also, the indices noted in thispresentation are unmanaged, are not available for direct investment, and are not subject to management fees,transaction costs or other types of expenses that the portfolio may incur. In addition, the performance of theindices reflects reinvestment of dividends and, where applicable, capital gain distributions. Therefore, investorsshould carefully consider these limitations and differences when evaluating the comparative benchmark dataperformance.The information regarding the index is included merely to show the general trends in the periods indicatedand is not intended to imply that the portfolio was similar to the index in composition or risk.The strategy may use alternative investment techniques (such as derivatives) which carry additional risks. Thelow initial margin deposits normally required to establish a position in such instruments may permit a highdegree of leverage. As a result, a relatively small movement in the price of a contract may result in a profit orloss that is high in proportion to the amount of funds actually placed as initial margin and may result in adisproportionate loss exceeding any margin deposited. Transactions in over-the-counter derivatives mayinvolve additional risk as there is no exchange on which to close out a position, only the original counterparty.Such transactions may therefore be difficult to liquidate, to value, or to assess the exposure. The strategy mayat times use certain types of investment derivatives, such as options, futures, forwards and swaps. Theseinstruments involve risks different from, and in certain cases, greater than, the risks presented by moretraditional investments.Standish sector models use regression analysis such as multi-linear data inputs, panel data, and probitfunction. Variables that the models take into account are: PMI, US Core CPI, Fed Fund rate, 3-month Libor, 3-month T-bill rate, foreign purchases of US Government bonds, Commodity Indices , Capacity Utilization,Deficit as a percent of GDP, S&P 500 return, Chicago Fed Index, IGOV, US output gap, Europe Core CPI, USunemployment rate, EU unemployment rate, and slope of the yield curve. Assumptions made are that samplesare representative of the population for the inference prediction; regression residuals are approximatelynormally distributed, uncorrelated, and have constant volatility; no high degrees of multi-colinearity in theindependent variables; variable sensitivity remains constant in the short term; and no structural shift in theshort term.

SBGCCQ4012616JB

Page 41: Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates · Spängler IQAM Bond Non-Financial Corporates V. Appendix. 2 The Story of Standish: “Best Ideas” Delivered ... Nicholas Tocchio

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