Speeding Up on Curves
description
Transcript of Speeding Up on Curves
Speeding Up on Curves
Brad Wheeler, Ph.D.
Indiana University Vice President for IT & CIOProfessor of Information Systems, IU Kelley School of Business
Thank You
There is Nothing New Under the Sun
http://www.bubblews.com/news/302536-sun-facts
For Information Technology…
Ecclesiastes 1:9 What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again;
there is nothing new under the sun.
Curves are Interesting
Not Like Predictable Linear Lines
Time
XY
March tothe NortheastCorner
Time
X
X
Y
Y
Over time• More is known• Less uncertainty• Less opportunity
Oct 31st, 2007 = $247 November 17th, 2008 = $53
X
Y
Y
2008
2008 20132002
X
YY
YX
X
X= Invested $5BY= Profited $2.1B
As the Australian iron ore magnate Lang Hancock (1909-1992) remarked in similar circumstances, "Always do the opposite to what the mob is doing. Works every time.” (oral history)
“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their
participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.”
Warren Buffett, Chairman’s Letter, 2004
http://www.wanowandthen.com/Langley-Hancock.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Warren_Buffett_KU_Visit.jpg
Industrial Heroes Who Think Differently
Thought Differently
Redefined and Saved a Company
Defined anIndustry
Oracleof Omaha
Foresaw and Shaped the Curves
Jobs Bezos Gerstner Buffett
What are the Relevant Curves?
For Higher Education…
What are the Smart Bets? Why?
At Least Three Curves
1. Public to Private Good …(price/cost pressures)
2. Digital Favors Scale …(rise of substitutes?)
3. Campus CIO Influence …(who’s driving?)
1. Funding for Public Education
(Higher Education in Increasingly a Private Good)
FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY1315%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
28% 27%25%
24% 24%23%
22%23% 22%
20% 19%18% 18%
21%
23%25%
26%27%
28% 28%
31%33% 33% 33%
35% 35%
State Appropriation and Net Student Fees as a Percent of Total Revenue
State Operating Appropriation Net Student Fees
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
20122013
$300,000,000
$350,000,000
$400,000,000
$450,000,000
$500,000,000
$550,000,000
$600,000,000
$650,000,000
$700,000,000
Operating Appropriation Increased at Inflation Rate (1990 Dollars)
Actual State Operating Appropriation State Operating Appropriation increased at CPIState Operating Appropriation increased at HEPI
CPI
HEPI
Actual
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 $5,000
$5,200
$5,400
$5,600
$5,800
$6,000
$6,200
$6,400
$6,600
State Operating Appropriation per Student FTE
Conclusion: Colleges and Universities Must Substantially Change our Cost Structure
Minimal goal: Can We Reallocate at least 20% of the cost of Administrative Services
to the Mission by 2020?
20% by 2020?50%?
2. Digital Goes to Scale
What is our Path to Scale? (Particularly for Online Learning)
Digital Economies of Scale
Analytics (Improvement)
Analytics (Triggers Improvement)
Behavior
Content – Distribution – Analytics
What role for universities?
Content
Textbooks, Simulations, Media, etc.
Distribution
MOOCs, Courses, Lessons, Degrees, Badges, etc.
MarketsStudents with Many Choices
?
Bundles
Is This Time Different?
Online Learning
• Substitutes for colleges/universities?• Complements for colleges/universities?
Four Revenue Models
1. Residential Education (flipped classroom)2. Online Courses / Degrees3. Massive Online Courses (MOCs)4. Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs)Free
$
$$
$$$
Which are complements? Substitutes?
So…What to Do?
1. Independence2. Dependence3. Interdependence
3 Generic Campus Strategies for Curve Coping …Shaping?
Campus Independence as a Strategy
Campus Dependence as a Strategy
Lessons…?
Campus Interdependence as Strategy
Lessons…?
Personal Insights from Three Strategies
Involving Others
A Tale of Dependence and Interdependence
(Personal Insights)
Aspiration
Conflict
Authority
Ownership
Authority
Ownership
Influence
Achieve!
Repeat?
Marketplace of ideas for Intentionally Interdependent Communities, but they need a strong Architecture to help
resolve inevitable Conflicts.
Marketecture of Community
Marketecture Matrix
Each University
SoloContracts
Open Source Software
CooperativeCommunities
Buying Clubs
Internet2 Net+
CollaborativeCommunities
HathiTrust or Kuali
Influ
ence
Low
erH
ighe
r
AuthorityLower Higher
Marketplace(Use)
Community(Own)
Wheeler & Hilton, EDUCAUSE Review, Nov/Dec 2012.
(Examples from University Communities)
Contracts Cooperative
Clubs Collaborative
Influ
ence
Authority
Wheeler & Hilton, EDUCAUSE Review, Nov/Dec 2012.
3. Influence of Campus IT Leadership(I am VERY Worried)
Review: Speeding Up on Curves
Curves• Price and Cost Pressure?• Path to Digital Scale?• Campus CIO Influence?
Generic Strategies• Independence• Dependence• Interdependence*
* Lessons in the Marketecture of Community
Curves are Interesting
Higher Ed Heros Who Think Differently?
? ? ? ?Thought
DifferentlyRedefined and Saved a College
Defined anIndustry
Oracleof Education
Who will Foresee and Shaped the Curves
Speeding Up on Curves
Brad Wheeler, Ph.D.
Indiana University Vice President for IT & CIOProfessor of Information Systems, IU Kelley School of Business