SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs, October 2010 … · 2013-02-28 · Background...
Transcript of SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs, October 2010 … · 2013-02-28 · Background...
Integration of Microseismic, Production Data and Numerical Simulation to Evaluate Uncertainties in
Unconventional Reservoirs.What is the Impact on Estimated Ultimate Recovery?
Randy Billingsley, Tracker Resources Development LLCSherilyn Williams-Stroud, MicroSeismic Inc
Chet Ozgen, Nitec LLC
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs, October 2010
OutlineBackgroundObjectivesAvailable DataInterpretations & AssumptionsUncertain Parameters of the AnalysisDynamic Calibration Process and ResultsPredictions and Sensitivity Analyses
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Background
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Background
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
MT
WYSD
ND
MBSKAB
Project Area
Williston BasinWilliston Basin
Background
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
DunnDunn
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FEET
0 25,285
PETRA 9/14/2010 7:58:24 AM
Project WellProject Well
Little Knife Anticline
Background
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
MURPHY CREEK
33025009160100LARSEN
13-1HT144N R95W S13
WILDCAT
33025007150001FRITZ30-1H
T144N R94E S30
0 200GR [GAPI]
6 20HCAL [IN]
0.2 2000AT90 [OHMM]
0 20PEFZ [B/E]
0.3 -0.1DPHI_DOL_TF_278
0.3 -0.1DPHI_DOL
0.3 -0.1DPHZ [CFCF]
1 0SW_TFX
1 0SW [PERCENT]
0 200GR [GAPI]
6 20HCAL [IN]
0 150GAMMA_CURVE [API]
0.2 2000AHT90 [OHMM]
0.2 2000AHT90_1 [OHMM]
0.2 2000AHT90 [OHMM]
MD-B [NDOG]
MID_BAKKEN [RLB]
LOWER_BAKKEN_SHALE [RLB]
D-TF [NDOG]THREE_FORKS [AJF]
10,6
0 0
U Bakken Shale
M Bakken Dolomites
L Bakken Shale
Background
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
FMI Rose from TRD Thomas 4-1H (~15 mi NW)
High Angle Type I Regional Extension Fractures (small aperture)
Lower Angle Shear Fractures related to Basement Faulting
2 Directions of Surface Lineaments inferred to be related to Basement
Faulting
DEM of Area
Surface and Subsurface Data Suggests a Diverse Natural Fracture Population Across
the Location.
Background
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Gas shows are inferred to be related to natural fracture swarms
Background
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Sliding sleeves colored by stage
Swell Packers isolate treatment
intervals
Frac treatment: 6/4/2008Early multistage,
Generation II, completion
Eight Ball/Sleeve Stages:Job Type Slickwater
BORAjel-5Sliding Sleeves: 11,400’ – 19,861’Max Slurry Rate: 56.1 bpmAvg. Slurry Rate: 37.9 bpmMax Pressure: 6,382 psiAvg. Pressure: 5,919 psi20/40 Ottawa: 351,000 lbs.20/40 Super L/C: 94,800 lbsFluid: 17,688 bbls.
Background
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Stage 2
Stage 6Stage 5Stage 4Stage 3
Stage 7Stage 8
Stage 1
Objectives
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
ObjectivesTo understand the impact of “seismic event
window” on dynamic calibration and EUR predictions
To understand the impact of “assumptions in DFN generation” on dynamic calibration and EUR predictions
To understand the impact of additional wells on NPV and EUR
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
ObjectivesTo understand the impact of “seismic event
window” on dynamic calibration and EUR predictions
To understand the impact of “assumptions in DFN generation” on dynamic calibration and EUR predictions
To understand impact of additional wells on NPV and EUR
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
This presentation focuses on the second objective
Available Data
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Available DataDrilling - vertical and horizontal wells
Mud log, gas chromatographyCores from nearby wells
Porosity, permeability, capillary pressureElectric logs from the vertical well
Stratigraphy, NTG, porosity, ~water saturationHydraulic fracturing operation
Injection pressure, injection volume, microseismicProduction operation
Oil, gas and water volumes, flowing THP
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Interpretations and Assumptions
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Interpretations and Assumptions
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Microseismic Events Monitored during the Completion are used
as seed loci for Stochastic DFN
Generation
Aperture and Connectivity are linked to Event Amplitude and
Distribution
Interpretations and Assumptions
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Wellbore Pseudo Fractures –White
FMI/Lineament Fractures –Purple/Blue
Hydraulic Fracture Network -Green
Interpretations and Assumptions
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Only simulated fractures actually
coincident with the wellbore or
connected to the wellbore through adjacent fractures
are shown.
Interpretations and Assumptions
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Discrete Fracture Network is upscaled to
delineate the Stimulated Rock Volume (SRV)
distribution, connectivity and
associated permeability.
Interpretations and AssumptionsIn this presentation we compare 2 DFN Models
Model #1 has one fracture set, with strike parallel to the main axis and limited scatter in the strike orientation.
Model #2 has two intersecting fracture sets with one parallel to the main axis and other having strike of 80 degrees with significant amount of scatter.
Both models were upscaled for porosity, permeability and sigma array associated with the hydraulic fracture
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Interpretations and Assumptions
Larger Connected SRV estimated for Model #2
Interpretations and AssumptionsEffective porosity of bounding shales = 1%Dolomite matrix porosity = 6.5%Dolomite matrix permeability = 0.010 mD
Single water-oil matrix drainage capillary pressure curve that corresponds to 6.5% porosity
Zero capillary pressure in the fracturesStraight line water-oil matrix/fracture relative
permeability curves
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Interpretations and Assumptions
Pc Drainage (oil-water)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
Sw (fraction)
Pc
(psi
)
Uncertain Parameters of the Analysis
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Uncertain Parameters of the Analysis– Initial reservoir pressure
• 72-hour buildup shows minimum of 5200 psia– Initial matrix water saturation
• set through depth of pseudo WOC– Water-oil relative permeability scaling
• Krw left constant and Kro is scaled
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Uncertain Parameters of the Analysis– Vertical communication among the layers
• Intercalated shale streaks– Permeability of the natural fractures
• Assume uniform value– Porosity of the natural fractures
• Assume uniform value– Sigma for the natural fractures/matrix
• Assume uniform value
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Uncertain Parameters of the Analysis– Amplitude of HF permeability distribution
• Use multiplier to upscaled DFN values– Amplitude of HF porosity distribution
• Use multiplier to upscaled DFN values– Amplitude of HF based sigma distribution
• Use multiplier to upscaled DFN values– Connection % of HF to the wellbore
• Use well PI (or WI) multiplier
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Dynamic Calibration Process and Results
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Unstable early THP data
Installation of artificial lift
Reliable THP
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Flow back of HF fluids
Reliable water production
Dynamic Calibration Process and ResultsDFN Model #1
In-house Assisted History Matching Software11 history matching parametersExperimental design for coverage of rangeANN and Genetic Algorithm for global searchResponse Surface and GA for optimizationRuns ~15 minutes - maximum 5-day time stepsApproximately 170 simulation runs
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Excellent match of THP data
Excellent match of water data
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
The difference in water production is 8000 barrels.
This indicates that 44% of the fracturing fluid was recovered
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Dynamic Calibration Process and ResultsDFN Model #2
In-house Assisted History Matching Software11 history matching parametersExperimental design for coverage of rangeANN and Genetic Algorithm for global searchResponse Surface and GA for optimizationRuns ~15 minutes - maximum 5-day time stepsApproximately 240 simulation runs
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Average match of THP data
Excellent match of water data
Dynamic Calibration Process and ResultsPinit WOCKrocw KzfMultWPImult
NFKadd HFKmultNFPadd HFPmultNFSadd HFSmult
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured ReservoirsTop 20 solutions for DFN Model #1
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured ReservoirsTop 20 solutions for DFN Model #2
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Dynamic Calibration Process and ResultsUncertain parameters for best solutions
Best solutions are especially different in NF Permeability values
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Dynamic Calibration Process and ResultsFracture delta P at 6/2010 for both DFN Models
Filtered at minimum fracture delta P of -500 psi
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Dynamic Calibration Process and ResultsMatrix delta P at 6/2010 for both DFN Models
Filtered at minimum fracture delta P of -500 psi
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Dynamic Calibration Process and ResultsMatrix delta P at 6/2010 for both DFN Models
Filtered at minimum matrix delta P of -500 psi
Predictions and Sensitivity Analyses
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Predictions and Sensitivity AnalysesResponse surface + Monte Carlo: 100 solutionsClassified 100 solutions into 5 clustersFor each DFN model:
Repeated five history match runsPerformed five predictions into the futureEach prediction has different probability
Kept the flowing BHP at 6/2010 values
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs5 clustered solutions for DFN Model #2
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
For DFN Model #1oil recovery range
at 50 years is340 to 360 MSTB
Predictions and Sensitivity AnalysesPerformance of DFN Models #1 and #2
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
16% Difference in 50-year Oil Recovery Estimates
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Significant Difference in Predicted Water Cut Profile
Predictions and Sensitivity AnalysesImportance of measuring water production
The End
SPE-AAPG ATW on Naturally Fractured Reservoirs
Integration of Microseismic, Production Data and Numerical Simulation to Evaluate Uncertainties in
Unconventional Reservoirs.What is the Impact on Estimated Ultimate Recovery?
Randy Billingsley, Tracker Resources Development LLCSherilyn Williams-Stroud, MicroSeismic Inc
Chet Ozgen, Nitec LLC