Spatial dimensions of supporting rural policy in Scotland

150th EAAE Seminar The spatial dimension in analysing the linkages between agriculture, rural development and the environmentKeith Matthews*, Dave Miller, Mike Rivington, Doug Wardell-Johnson, Davide Cammarano James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen*keith.matthews@hutton.ac.uk

Introduction• Since 2008 working in policy support, CAP and related issues• Background in farm DSS, geographical information systems, modelling• Larger datasets – integration and improvement• Progressive integration of administrative and science based datasets

• Sources and integrations• Example derived datasets

• Use of datasets in policy support• Woodland expansion – changes in C stocks and emissions• CAP 2015 reforms – direct payments and related• Social metabolism – alternative performance metrics

• Ongoing activities and opportunities

Spatial data integration

Land use/cover data: coverage and granularity

Capability vs. use

Stocking ratesLand use + stock numbers (Census)Field or Holding levelVarying reliability

Change in carbon stocks

ECOSSE

FMA masks

Woodlandcarbon code

Soil inputs from vegetation

Soil maps and database

Climate mapping

Land use changeIACS, LCM2007,

etc

Unique CombinationsMap and Table

Net Change Mapping and

Analysis

Change insoil carbon

Above groundbiomass

Other constraints mapping, LCA, WEAG Phase 3,

etc

Spatial Scenario analysis

Woodland expansion outputs

CAP direct payments regionalisation

Per Field Usership,

Claimed LU & Area (2)

Field Boundary

Map

Land Capability for Agriculture

Map

LCA Mix per Field (3)

Flattened Per Field Baseline

IACS Database

Per BusinessBaseline (1)

Per BusinessScenarios (7)

LFASS Fragility

Per FieldLCA Mix

for Included LUs (4)

Eligibility perLand Use

LFA Status Map

LFA Status per Field

Per FieldLCA/LFA Mix

(5)

Scenario Payment

Rates

Per Business LCA/LFA Mix

(6)

Baseline Map

Scenario Maps

Per Field Scenarios

Per Business LCA/LFA mix

adjusted for Stocking Rate Eligibility (8)

JAC Livestock Numbers

Parish data

Field & User data

Field data

Business data

Legend

EntitlementsJAC Land

Use

Several Scales

Sub-Field data Inquiry data

Holding data

Phase 1Data Collation

Phase 2Data Integration

Phase 3Scenario Analysis

Change Map

Matthews et. al (2013) Land Use Policy

10

Options analysesRegion – Farm Level – Land TypeBudget – Production WeightedPodium weighting towards permanent grasslands (+20% vs. best land)Redistribution €267M with a budget of €642M

11

Options analyses – cont.Region – Farm Level – Land TypeBudget – Production Weighted

CAP – implementation& Greening

Social metabolism

• Energy, material and value• Differentiating sources• Translation across energy

hierarchy – seJ • Emergy systems (Odum)

• Applied to• Scot Ag• CNP Ag• Scot economy• Internationally (NEAD)• External referent

Soc-met – alternatives to GDP

Alternative system views – flows, networks

Going forward• Policy support – Greening, ANC definition and regionalisation• Farm Accounts Survey integration• Regional yield modelling• Networks – supply chains (CTS and ScotEID)• Empirical agent based modelling• Collaborations for policy or science

June CensusDecember Survey

(IACS subset)

Bio-physical DataClimate,

Topography, Soil, Land Capability,

Rural Urban Classification

“Profitability” ModelRepresentativenessNatural Constraints

Black Box Process FAS+

Farm Accounts Survey

CAP Intentions Survey

CAP Adaptation Scenarios