Spath – 385 Arab Politics & SocietySpring 2010

Repertoires and Violence in Contentious Politics

A Typology of Religion? (Halim Barakat)

Mechanism of ControlCan legitimize the existing social orderCan bring about unity if beliefs are open &

accepting or society is homogenous

Mechanism of InstigationMobilizational ToolInstitutions for coordination; beliefs as ‘call’ to

action (da’wa)

Mechanism of Reconciliation“opium of the people”?Deprived become passive and submissive in

their oppressed state

A Typology of Religion – Eric Davis

Piety and Devotion – non-political5 pillars of Islam

Shahada; Salat; Siyam; Zakat; HajjPoliticized Religion

EcumenicalHostile

Critique??Communal Solidarity – rallying when

facing threatsSubterfuge for Criminal Activity –

deceptive device

Distinct Categories of Islamists (Coffman-Wittes)

Takfiri – radical fundamentalist (ex. Al-Qaeda)

• Violence• Reject democratic governance as against God’s sovereignty

Nationalist Militant – combine Islamist ideology with local political demands (ex. Hamas, Hizbullah, Mahdi Army)

• Violence, with formal political presence• Weak states

Institutionalist – seek political role through state institutions (ex. IAF in Jordan; MB in Egypt?)

IMPLICATIONS FOR DEMOCRACY??

Contentious Politics: a definition

Contentious politics: episodic, public, collective interactions in which actors make claims that bear on someone else’s interests, leading to coordinating efforts, in which governments are targets, the objects of claims, or third parties.

Social movements: sustained campaigns of claim making, using repeated performances that advertise that claim, based on organizations, networks, traditions, and solidarities that sustain these activities.

Defining a Repertoire of ContentionContentious repertoires:

arrays of contentious performances that are currently known and available within some set of political actors. (Tilly & Tarrow, 2006)

Set of tools available for use by political activists that the general public would recognize as a form of political protest.

BRAINSTORMING repertoires in various settings

Islam as a Tool (cultural “tool kit”)

Framing – “tools that lend order and sense to an otherwise confusing world by providing language that captures or constructs the meaning of problems.”

• Attempt to make a claim resonate with the public

Framing in Saudi Arabia in the 1990s

What government activities were the movements challenging?

• US Troops in Saudi Arabia (Gulf War); Corruption and decadent behavior of ruling family; Econ. Disparity; Dependence of Clergy

New ‘popular’ clergy gained public legitimacy (official vs. unofficial clergy)

Alternative frames – secular-liberal, nationalist, feminist, Islamic

Islamic frame – only one that resonated with society-at-large

• Led to Nasiha Petition (“memorandum of advice” from religious scholars demanding change in government behavior)

Technology in the RepertoireAvoiding Technological Determinism – technology

does not automatically mean greater mobilization

Innovations in communications technology must be analyzed dynamically – operates in two opposing ways: lowers the costs of coordination among activists

who are already connected with each other; facilitates mobilization

BUT – excludes those who lack access to the new

means of communication, increasing communications inequality and prevents potential activists from joining

Facilitate larger state coordination and the ability for states to use repression.

Violence in the Repertoire

Differentating between ‘Conflict’ and ‘Violence’Difference in degree and in kind (strategy); qualitative

shift when one starts to behave violently

Popular View – Islamic activists are radical fanatics engaged in irrational, deviant, unpredictable violenceDoes not explain why violence is used in certain

places at certain times

More social-scientific view – we can at least try to explain why we observe the use of violence when and where we do by examining human behavior and political context

Hafez & WiktorowiczViolence in Egyptian Islamic Movement2 Questions

Specific – Why did Islamists turn to violence in EIM?General - Why do social movements utilize violence

as contention given the presence of other tactics? What explains variation across countries and over time?

2 Forms of the ‘Popular View’Ideational Factors - Political or Religious ideologies

can completely explain the use of violence.Psychological Factors - Socioeconomic background

tells us something about grievances and therefore participation violent groups (deprivation theories)

Why Contention? Deprivation Theory

Hafez & WiktorowiczViolence in Egyptian Islamic Movement

It is more effective to view violent activists as rational actors operating within a context of opportunities and constraints that inform decisions about appropriate tactics to use.

Political Opportunity Structure – Focus on TWOAccessibility to institutionalized politics

o Access versus ExclusionState Repression

o Timing and Targeting

What does this mean for political strategy?

Political Opportunity, Threat, & Contention

Political Opportunity Structure: features of regimes and institutions (e.g., splits in the

ruling class) that facilitate or inhibit a political actor’s collective action

Category Increasing Threat Increasing Opportunity

openness of regime regime closing down regime increasingly open

coherence of elite increasing solidarity of elite increasing elite divisions stability of pol. alignments increasing stability rising instability

availability of allies potential allies disappear new allies in regime or lose power available to challengers

repression/facilitation decreasing facilitation, increasing facilitation,rising repression declining repression

Timing and Targeting

FACILITATE VIOLENCE

DETER VIOLENCE

TIMINGPre-Emptive

Reactionary

TA

RG

ETIN

GS

ele

ctiv

eIn

dis

crim

.

Hafez & Wiktorowicz 3 Important Changes in Pol. Opportunity

Structure contributed to emergence of violence as a tactic

First, Egypt witnessed the deliberalization of institutional politics in the 1990s (esp. Ikhwan)

Second, the authorities in Egypt began to dismantle the network of the Gama’a in Upper Egypt

Finally, repression against the Gama’a was indiscriminate;

Hamas as Social Movement?From the work of Glenn E. Robinson, “Hamas as Social Movement” in Islamic Activism

Hamas as Terrorist Group – Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades

Problems:1.Ignores much of what Hamas actually does

2.Terrorism as a tactic vs. fundamental attribute

Hamas and Political Opportunity Structure

Post-1977 change in Israeli policy toward the Islamist movement in the Occupied Territories (election of Likud Party in Israel)

Internationalization of Islamist demonstration

Beginning of Palestinian Intifada (1987)1993 Oslo Accords (Declaration of

Principles)

Empirical Work - Event Empirical Work - Event AnalysisAnalysisThe fundamental unit of analysis in this

study is the contentious event.

Event analysis is widely recognized as a tool for studying waves of mobilization.

It is essentially a way of tracking over time the rise and fall of particular types of events and the features associated with them (Beissinger 2002: 42).

Subject – Verb - ObjectSubject – Verb - Object

Transcription subject verb object the same night the mob (gathered) mob #gather none the mob committed great violences in Surry-Street, in the Strand, particularly at the Coach Office, not a window was left with a whole pane of glass mob #break owner of Coach Office

My research team found multiple accounts of these attacks in 1829’s Times of London. Here is how we transcribed and classified the major actions within a cutting incident on May 4th: Transcription Verb Broad Verb Category certain evil-disposed persons riotously assembled assemble move entered the dwellings of the journeymen silk weavers enter move and maliciously cut and destroyed the silk in the looms destroy attack #end #end end a reward of 200L is hereby offered offer negotiate The left hand verb presents our simplified transcription of the phrase’s central action. The right hand column shows our placement in one of eight extremely broad categories of verbs: attack, control, end, meet, move, negotiate, support, and other. (More on verb categories in a moment.)

Source: Tilly. Contentious Performances Chapter 2. Unpublished draft 2007.

Example from Charles Tilly’s Study on Great Britain

Empirical Work – Event Data Analysis

Source: Data Supplied by Mark Beissinger

Figure 5.4: Demonstrations and Violent Events in the Soviet Union and Successor States, 1987-1992

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

198

7

198

8

198

9

199

0

199

1

199

2

Year

Cu

mu

lati

ve N

um

ber

of

Even

ts

Violent Events

Demonstrations

From Hector Forero’s Student Memorandum