Space Weather on the Space Weather on the World Wide WebWorld Wide Web

Janet Kozyra, *Daniel Atkins, and **Joseph Hardin

* Director of the Alliance for Community Technology. PI of the UARC and SPARC projects, the NSF EXPRES project for collaborative multimedia authoring as well as U of M’s Digital Library Project

** Director of Systems Development and Operations at U of

Michigan’s School of Information, member of the UARC and SPARC development teams. Prior to 1997, headed up a group at NCSA that developed Mosaic, NCSA Telenet, Image and PolyView

Usability Present & Future New interfaces to enhance

usability Campaigns & Workshops -

New hybrids using web and face-to-face elements

Journals - Beginnings of online publication. The Internet vs. printed media. Multi-media still in the future

Summary - The Internet as a key element in the future of space weather research

Space Weather Research & the Internet

The Richness & Diversity of our Internet resources

Internet Tour Forecast Real-Time Data Data Archives Project Pages Information, EPO

Navigation Commercial search

engines put to the test

Space Weather Research & Space Weather Research & the Webthe Web

Key initiatives for the success of the National Space Weather Program [NRC report, The Atmospheric Sciences, Entering the 21st Century, 1998], include: Development and implementation of new tools that enhance

communications between research scientists engaged in, & those effected by, space weather

Development of a framework that enables the continuous testing, evaluation and verification of global space weather models

Development of a new suite of electronic tools that support space weather modeling and prediction , as well as education and public outreach.

The Internet can play a fundamental role A quick tour through a small sample of Space Weather sites on the

Internet demonstrates their variety & quality

11141364711

Total Sites Tracked493

Space Weather Directories -Space Weather Directories -SPDSSPDS

17612266

Total: 364 Total: 41 Total: 111

*SPDS established in 1993 to preserve, exchange & access scientific data

Directories - Rice Directories - Rice UniversityUniversity

Real-Time 50 Forecast 3 Educational 27 CDAW sites 8 Models 11 SPA Observatories

radars 11 riometers 1 lidars 5 Ionosondes 6 magnetometer 16 cosmic ray & 1 neutron monitor

solar data 19 optical 8 rocket facilities 2 satellites 66 tomography 1 GPS 3

Research Ctrs 51 Literature Index 3 Prof. Organizations 11 Amateur Organi- 1

zations Other Link Lists 10

Total: 352

Directories - UCLA IGPPDirectories - UCLA IGPP

Organizations 23 Agencies 25 Data Centers/Databases 37 Projects 85 Research Groups 150 Public Outreach/Education 25 Journals/Books/Newsletters/Bulletins 35 Budget/Congress/Public Affairs 2 Related Home Pages 7

Total: 389

Directories - AGU Space Directories - AGU Space Physics & AeronomyPhysics & Aeronomy

23213734153

Total: 268

156 124

83 85

86 13

9083

44

Total: 764

SwRISwRI

General Info 59Radio Propagation

13Link Collections 8Data 62Ground Effects 10Software 13Institutions 19Forecasts 19Models 30Spacecraft Effects

44

Total: 319

Directories - SPEEDirectories - SPEE

Spacecraft Project SiteSpacecraft Project Site

Web

Tour

Usable Interface for Web Data Usable Interface for Web Data AccessAccess

Web

Tour

New Satellite Program - New Satellite Program - Open Data AccessOpen Data Access

Web

Tour

New Satellite Program - New Satellite Program - Open Data AccessOpen Data Access

Web

Tour

High Usability Data SiteHigh Usability Data Site

Web

Tour

Gateway to Ionosonde Gateway to Ionosonde InformationInformation

Web

Tour

Gateway to Digisonde Gateway to Digisonde DataData

Web

Tour

Gateway to Gateway to Magnetometer DataMagnetometer Data

Web

Tour

Real-Time GPS Data Real-Time GPS Data ProductsProducts

Web

Tour

Lastest Solar ImagesLastest Solar Images

Web

Tour

Auroral Activity UpdatesAuroral Activity Updates

Web

Tour

Real-Time Solar Wind Real-Time Solar Wind InfoInfo

Web

Tour

Monitor of Auroral Monitor of Auroral PowerPower

Web

Tour

Real-Time Data Real-Time Data IngestionIngestion

Web

Tour

Commercial Space Commercial Space News/OutreachNews/Outreach

Web

Tour

Commercial Space Commercial Space News/OutreachNews/Outreach

Web

Tour

NAS/ Electronic PublicationsNAS/ Electronic Publications

Web

Tour

NASA News/OutreachNASA News/Outreach

Web

Tour

Expert Internet GuidesExpert Internet Guides

Web

Tour

Education / Public Education / Public OutreachOutreach

Web

Tour

Education / Public OutreachEducation / Public Outreach

Web

Tour

Education / Public OutreachEducation / Public Outreach

Web

Tour

ConclusionConclusion Space weather research is supported by a

rich collection of Internet-based resources Impressive & growing capability for real-

time data display and rapid data retrieval over the internet

Internet-based data retrieval of archived data

Some of these capabilities already being integrated into outreach & education sites

Presently > 800 sites ~ 10 space weather directories with many

but not all overlapping links

Challenge & Challenge & OpportunityOpportunity

To develop interfaces that support scientists, engineers & fore-casters in space weather research, prediction & outreach, which:

track and integrate growing web science resources provide analysis tools & data management services complement scientific processing needs support collaborative software for science analysis, workshops and

authoring results minimize the human costs of change and maximize the support of

science creativity by investing heavily in human-centered design efforts up front.

Take advantage of predicted enhancements in web capabilities (though only 20% of predictions of technological advances by experts have been accurate [Schnaars, 1989]). Nevertheless can’t have a plan without predictions.

Navigation - How to find what you Navigation - How to find what you need?need?Projected Internet Growth [Jacob

Nielsen, Designing Web Usability, 2000]

“Oooh, look! It says in the manual they have online help!”

Sites: 10 million in 1999 --> 200 million by 2005

Pages: 1 billion in 1999 --> 50 billion by 2005 (Doesn’t include dark matter or dynamic pages. Only 16% of pages accessible to search engines)

Users (sharing the same computer system!!): 200 million in 2000 --> 500 million by 2005 --> 1 billion by 2010

Test of Commercial Search Test of Commercial Search EnginesEngines

Space Weather (Only 11 found by > 1 engine)*Google 12,300 Alta Vista 18LookSmart 10 Excite 48WebCrawler 24 Yahoo 18LookSmart 10 Total 106Space Physics (Only 22 found by > 1 engine)*Google 18,800 Alta Vista 20LookSmart 9 Excite 46WebCrawler 25 Yahoo 20InfoSeek 47 Total 143

Magnetosphere (Only 17 found by > 1 engine)*Google 17,000 Alta Vista 19Excite 41 InfoSeek 43WebCrawler 25 Yahoo 19AllTheWeb 23 Total 154

* Google not included in totals.

Ionosphere (Only 17 found by > 1 engine)*Google 21,600 Alta Vista 18Excite 42 InfoSeek 46WebCrawler 24 Yahoo 18AllThe Web 22 Total 154

Aeronomy (Only 13 found by > 1 engine)*Google 6,720 Alta Vista 20LookSmart 1 Excite 31WebCrawler 24 Yahoo 19AllTheWeb 23 Total 97

Test of Commercial Search Test of Commercial Search EnginesEngines

* Google not included in totals.

Usability - How To Efficiently Usability - How To Efficiently Anticipate &Adapt to Anticipate &Adapt to Increasing Capabilities?Increasing Capabilities? 50% faster Internet bandwidth every

year In 5 years: high-end users will have

sub-second response times in downloading pages

In 10 years: all users will have good bandwidth. It will be possible to stream good

quality video across the Internet. The Web will be 57 times [Jacob

Nielsen, 2000] to orders of magnitude faster [SPARC team,2000] --

(Bell Labs has already demonstrated the capability to shoot a terabit/sec down an optical fiber )

How new technology boosts productivity.

Will faster speeds mean you just get lost faster in cyberspace?

A Developing Space Weather A Developing Space Weather InterfaceInterface GEDAS Concept:

• Integration of data sets

• Connect ground-based & space-based observations

• Provide local and global view through models

• Provide link between models & data

• Real-time data streams for researchers

• Link classrooms to real-time data & vivid materials

A n Evolving Space Weather A n Evolving Space Weather CollaboratoryCollaboratory

SPARC Partner SPARC Partner InstitutionsInstitutions Aerocibo Observatory

EISCAT (Svalbard Obs) EISCAT (Tromso Obs) Jicamarca Radio Obs Millstone Hill Obs MIT/Haystack NASA/ACE POLAR/UVI (G. Parks) POLAR/VIS (L. Frank) NASA/ESA SOHO SuperDARN Sondrestrom Aurora Obs (Univ of Tromso) Communications Res Lab, Japan Royal Meteor. Inst of Belgium Herman Ohlathaver Inst for Aeronomy Solar Radio Monitoring Program, Canada

Southwest Research Institute IPS Radio & Space Services Lockheed Martin Solar & Astrophys Lab NOAO & NSO Canadian Space Agency INTERMAGNET (Japan) ISTP Program Rice University SPRL NASA

Solar Synoptic Analysis (Poland) Ionospheric USA TEC Map (Pi) Global TEC Map (Pi) Global GPS Phase Fluctuation (Pi) SOHO EIT (Gurman) Yohkoh Soft Xrays (Gurman) Photospheric Magnetogram

(Gurman) Solar Terrestrial Dispatch

AGUAGUSPASPAShowcaseShowcaseofofReal-TimeReal-TimeWebWebInforma-Informa-tion - >tion - >underunderdevelop-develop-mentment

AGU SPA Section / SPARC Real-Time Screens AGU SPA Section / SPARC Real-Time Screens

SPARC Interactive Page SPARC Interactive Page DevelopmentDevelopment

SPARC Interactive Page SPARC Interactive Page DevelopmentDevelopment

Radio buttons to customize a table layout for display of data streams

SPARC SPARC Interactive Interactive Page Page DevelopmentDevelopment•Screen to choose data set and time interval for each table cell.

SPARC Overview Front SPARC Overview Front PagePage

SPARC Overview Front SPARC Overview Front PagePage

Virtual Science Analysis Virtual Science Analysis WorkshopsWorkshops

Scientific Interactions & the Creative Process So much of what we define as the creative science

process is grounded in people interacting with people. Any electronic interaction must not supress or unduly

mechanize human interactions Human dynamics unfold differently online,

affecting the bias-level in discusssions the influence of minority opinion holders and the development of trust essential to scientific

collaborations It would alter the scientific process in ways we do

not fully understand to carry out collaborations solely by electronic medium at this point

Clearly there are many advantages to electronic workshop interactions in science analysis Savings in time and resources (over ever increasing

number of face-to-face meetings) Thoughtfully-designed computer interfaces that provide

seamless access to disparate data sets, common analysis tools, and collaborative software tools may drive a true paradigm shift in science analysis, resulting in:

more frequent and comprehensive integration of data sets in addressing global science issues

more seamless support of data/theory & data/model closure higher productivity and enhanced creative energy focused

on the global & multidisciplinary issues

The optimum strategy is to maintain a balance between virtual & face-to-face interactions

Virtual Science Analysis Virtual Science Analysis WorkshopsWorkshops

Sun-to-Earth CampaignsSun-to-Earth Campaigns

Site serves as clearing-house for campaign information & links

Interna-tional,multi-disciplinary participation

Campaign interactions would benefit from a more powerful interface

Sun-to-EarthInternationalCampaign planned as hybrid of virtual and face-to-faceworkshops incooperationwith SPARC

SPARC workshop interface under development

On-Line JournalsOn-Line Journals Paper is expected to be obsolete in the next several

decades with the perfection of high-resolution portable light screens [Odlyzko, 1997].

The long-term competition will not be between printed journals and computer screens but between printing out on-line journals and reading them on the screen

Many established print journals are moving their traditional journals online (i.e., AGU, Elsevier) and predictions are that they will be phasing printed versions out in a few years

Number of new electronic-only journals is growing The Internet is poised to drive profound changes in

the peer-reviewed, archival reporting of scientific results based on dynamic presentations and multimedia forms.

On-Line JournalsOn-Line Journals

Elsevier is a leader in the transition to electronic access to traditional journals.

It is now offering to archive multi-media supplements to articles

Summary -- The Internet & Summary -- The Internet & Space Weather ResearchSpace Weather Research

There is a diverse and growing collection of space weather sites on the Internet

Provide vital resources for the gradual development and continuous testing of global space weather models against distributed data sources

Internet provides a natural global network for enhancing communications between researchers,

forecasters and users of space weather information supporting multidisciplinary electronic analysis efforts coordinating face-to-face workshops providing a medium for dynamic multimedia

dissemination of scientific findings providing a direct conduit to classrooms and the

public

The Internet as a medium is undergoing dramatic changes, increasing in bandwidth and size usability is improving navigation is becoming increasingly difficult

Navigation on the present web is enhanced by a handful of space weather resource lists (the largest one tracks > 700 sites). Different emphasis - slightly different collections of sites.

Most commercial search engines identify < 50 sites in any search -- when many search engines are run simultaneously they overlap only slightly in their identification of sites

Need a more efficient way of accessing and using this valuable information resource.

Summary -- The Internet & Summary -- The Internet & Space Weather ResearchSpace Weather Research

Summary -- The Internet & Summary -- The Internet & Space Weather ResearchSpace Weather Research

Space Weather gateways are needed to provide seamless access to on-line space weather data sources and web resources. If these gateways are combined with broader workstation tools, interactive analysis tools and collaborative authoring tools, then a powerful interface can be created for space weather research

One advantage to being early-adopters of electronic workshop software applied to science analysis is that we are able to have a major influence on the final form this technology will take; to drive it to a human-centered interface design and make sure it meets the needs of the science community.

With foresight and planning now we can make sure that the uses made of the Internet aid and clarify space weather research rather than confuse or interfere with it.