Space Weather Activities at NSSTC Oklahoma Space Grant Tour Dr. David H. Hathaway NASA/MSFC/NSSTC...

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Space Weather Activities Space Weather Activities at NSSTC at NSSTC Oklahoma Space Grant Tour Oklahoma Space Grant Tour Dr. David H. Hathaway Dr. David H. Hathaway NASA/MSFC/NSSTC NASA/MSFC/NSSTC 2007 March 23 2007 March 23

Transcript of Space Weather Activities at NSSTC Oklahoma Space Grant Tour Dr. David H. Hathaway NASA/MSFC/NSSTC...

Space Weather ActivitiesSpace Weather Activitiesat NSSTCat NSSTC

Oklahoma Space Grant TourOklahoma Space Grant Tour

Dr. David H. HathawayDr. David H. Hathaway

NASA/MSFC/NSSTCNASA/MSFC/NSSTC

2007 March 232007 March 23

Space Weather

Sources of Space Weather

1. Photons (X-rays, EUV)2. Energetic Particles (Protons)3. Magnetized Plasma

Space weather refers to conditions on Space weather refers to conditions on the Sun and in the space environment the Sun and in the space environment that can influence the performance and that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems, and can based technological systems, and can endanger human life or health. endanger human life or health.

Example: The Bastille Day EventExample: The Bastille Day EventThe flare, seen in EUV, emits energetic photons and accelerates The flare, seen in EUV, emits energetic photons and accelerates particles. The coronal mass ejection, also accelerates particles particles. The coronal mass ejection, also accelerates particles and ejects magnetized plasma from the Sun. The energetic par-and ejects magnetized plasma from the Sun. The energetic par-ticles shower the imaging instruments on SOHO minutes later.ticles shower the imaging instruments on SOHO minutes later.

Space Weather Effects

Shuttle missions and EVAs require particular attention. The Space Shuttle missions and EVAs require particular attention. The Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) reports to Mission Control Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) reports to Mission Control when: K-index > 6, X-Ray Flux > M5, Protons at >100 MeV > 50. when: K-index > 6, X-Ray Flux > M5, Protons at >100 MeV > 50.

ISS: 50 pfu at > 100 MeV - shutdown the robotic arm 100 pfu at > 100 MeV - alert Mission Control. The Flight Team will start to evaluate a plan to shutdown equipment to prevent damage. 200 pfu at > 100 MeV - plan is implemented

Effects of Solar Activity:Effects of Solar Activity:On Human Space FlightOn Human Space Flight

Effects of Solar Activity:Effects of Solar Activity:On SatellitesOn Satellites

Radiation (protons, electrons, alpha particles) from solar flares and Radiation (protons, electrons, alpha particles) from solar flares and coronal mass ejections can damage electronics on satellites. coronal mass ejections can damage electronics on satellites. Heating of the Earth’s upper atmosphere increases satellite drag.Heating of the Earth’s upper atmosphere increases satellite drag.

•1991 GOES1991 GOES•1995 Deutsche Telekom1995 Deutsche Telekom•1996 Telesat Canada1996 Telesat Canada•1997 Telstar 4011997 Telstar 401•2000/07/14 ASCA2000/07/14 ASCA•2003 Mars Odyssey2003 Mars Odyssey

•4500 spacecraft 4500 spacecraft anomalies over last 25 anomalies over last 25 yearsyears

Effects of Solar Activity:Effects of Solar Activity:On Power GridsOn Power Grids

Solar disturbances shake the Earth’s magnetic field. This sets up Solar disturbances shake the Earth’s magnetic field. This sets up huge electrical currents in power lines and pipe lines. huge electrical currents in power lines and pipe lines.

The solar storm of March 13The solar storm of March 13thth 1989 fried a $10M transformer in NJ. 1989 fried a $10M transformer in NJ. The same storm interrupted power to the province of Quebec for 6 The same storm interrupted power to the province of Quebec for 6 days.days.

HF Communication only

• Polar flights departing from North America use VHF (30-300 MHz) comm or Polar flights departing from North America use VHF (30-300 MHz) comm or Satcom with Canadian ATCs and Arctic Radio.Satcom with Canadian ATCs and Arctic Radio.

• Flights rely on HF (3 – 30 MHz) communication inside the 82 degree circle.Flights rely on HF (3 – 30 MHz) communication inside the 82 degree circle.

• Growth: Airlines operating China-US routes goes from 4 to 6 and then Growth: Airlines operating China-US routes goes from 4 to 6 and then number of weekly flights goes from 54 to 249 over the next 6-years.number of weekly flights goes from 54 to 249 over the next 6-years.

Effects of Solar Activity:Effects of Solar Activity:On Airline OperationsOn Airline Operations

Yearly Sunspot Numbers and Reconstructed Northern Hemis-Yearly Sunspot Numbers and Reconstructed Northern Hemis-phere Temperature (Mann, Bradley & Hughesphere Temperature (Mann, Bradley & Hughes Nature Nature 392, 779- 392, 779-787, 1998) smoothed with an 11-year FWHM tapered Gaussian 787, 1998) smoothed with an 11-year FWHM tapered Gaussian and trimmed to valid smoothed data. The correlation coefficient and trimmed to valid smoothed data. The correlation coefficient from the overlapping period is 0.78 but the physical mechanism from the overlapping period is 0.78 but the physical mechanism linking the two is unknown.linking the two is unknown.

Effects of Solar Activity:Effects of Solar Activity:On Climate?On Climate?

The Solar Sources of Space The Solar Sources of Space WeatherWeather

The sunspot cycle was discovered by Heinrich Schwabe in 1844 The sunspot cycle was discovered by Heinrich Schwabe in 1844 from 18-years of personal observations. The cycle periods are from 18-years of personal observations. The cycle periods are normally distributed about 131 months with a variance of 14 normally distributed about 131 months with a variance of 14 months. months.

The “11-year” Sunspot CycleThe “11-year” Sunspot Cycle

Sunspot number is well correlated with other indicators of solar Sunspot number is well correlated with other indicators of solar activity. The long record of sunspot numbers helps to better activity. The long record of sunspot numbers helps to better characterize the solar cycle. Predicting the sunspot number also characterize the solar cycle. Predicting the sunspot number also provides an estimate of these other source of solar activity.provides an estimate of these other source of solar activity.

Sunspot Number and Solar ActivitySunspot Number and Solar Activity

Sunspot AreaSunspot Area 10.7cm Radio Flux10.7cm Radio Flux GOES X-Ray FlaresGOES X-Ray Flares

Climax Cosmic-Ray FluxClimax Cosmic-Ray FluxGeomagnetic aa indexGeomagnetic aa indexTotal IrradianceTotal Irradiance

Magnetic Fields are Behind all Solar Magnetic Fields are Behind all Solar ActivityActivity

The Sun’s Magnetic CycleThe Sun’s Magnetic Cycle•The high conductivity of the fluid within the Sun makes the magnetic The high conductivity of the fluid within the Sun makes the magnetic field and the fluid flow together (frozen in field lines).field and the fluid flow together (frozen in field lines).

•The high pressures found inside the Sun insures that the fluid flow The high pressures found inside the Sun insures that the fluid flow controls the magnetic field (except in the centers of sunspots).controls the magnetic field (except in the centers of sunspots).

Dynamos with Meridional FlowDynamos with Meridional FlowRecent Dynamo models incorporate a deep meridional flow to Recent Dynamo models incorporate a deep meridional flow to transport magnetic flux toward the equator at the base of the transport magnetic flux toward the equator at the base of the convection zone. These models explain the equatorward drift of convection zone. These models explain the equatorward drift of activity, the poleward drift of weak magnetic elements on the activity, the poleward drift of weak magnetic elements on the surface, the length of the cycle from the speed of the flow, and surface, the length of the cycle from the speed of the flow, and give a relationship between polar fields at minimum and the give a relationship between polar fields at minimum and the amplitude of future cycles.amplitude of future cycles.

Dikpati and Charbonneau, Dikpati and Charbonneau, ApJApJ 518, 508-520, 1999 518, 508-520, 1999

The Dynamo PredictionThe Dynamo PredictionDikpati, de Toma & Gilman (2006) have fed sunspot areas and Dikpati, de Toma & Gilman (2006) have fed sunspot areas and positions into their numerical model for the Sun’s dynamo and positions into their numerical model for the Sun’s dynamo and reproduced the amplitudes of the last eight cycles with reproduced the amplitudes of the last eight cycles with unprecedented accuracy (RMS error < 10).unprecedented accuracy (RMS error < 10).

Cycle 24 Prediction ~ 165 Cycle 24 Prediction ~ 165 ± 15± 15

Magnetic Field and Solar FlaresMagnetic Field and Solar Flares

Flares are likely to occur when Flares are likely to occur when the magnetic field along the the magnetic field along the neutral line between opposite neutral line between opposite polarity regions is sheared or polarity regions is sheared or twisted from the direction given twisted from the direction given by the potential field.by the potential field.

Vector Magnetograms are Vector Magnetograms are needed to determine the needed to determine the presence of this magnetic presence of this magnetic shear.shear.

Correlations with CMEsCorrelations with CMEsRed + => CME Blue + => no CMERed + => CME Blue + => no CME

Magnetic Models for CMEsMagnetic Models for CMEs

Current MissionsCurrent MissionsUlyssesUlysses

(ESA/NASA – 1990)(ESA/NASA – 1990)SOHOSOHO

(ESA/NASA – 1995)(ESA/NASA – 1995)TRACETRACE

(NASA – 1998)(NASA – 1998)

RHESSIRHESSI(NASA –2002)(NASA –2002)

STEREOSTEREO(NASA -2006/08)(NASA -2006/08)

HinodeHinode(Japan/US/UK –2006/09)(Japan/US/UK –2006/09)

Future MissionsFuture MissionsSolar Dynamics ObservatorySolar Dynamics Observatory

(NASA -2008/08)(NASA -2008/08)Solar SentinelsSolar Sentinels

(NASA/ESA? -2012?)(NASA/ESA? -2012?)

The Earth’s Response to Space The Earth’s Response to Space WeatherWeather

Coronal Mass Ejections Interact with Coronal Mass Ejections Interact with the Earth’s Magnetospherethe Earth’s Magnetosphere

Magnetic Models for Geomagnetic Magnetic Models for Geomagnetic ActivityActivity

Ground-Level ResponseGround-Level Response

A Space Weather-observing “constellation” of satellites

ConclusionsConclusions

• Space Weather must be understood Space Weather must be understood and reliably predicted for safe and and reliably predicted for safe and successful space explorationsuccessful space exploration

• Additional scientific research is Additional scientific research is needed to do thisneeded to do this

http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/