Space Tourism U Of I 28th Nov 2005 Part 1
57
Space tourism Opportunities and Challenges in the Second Space Race Steven Fawkes BSc, DipTechEcon, PhD, CEng, FEI, FBIS University of Illinois, 28 th November 2005
-
Upload
guido-fawkes -
Category
Documents
-
view
1.345 -
download
1
description
Space Tourism lecture at U of I Dept of Aerospace 28th Nov 2005 Part 1
Transcript of Space Tourism U Of I 28th Nov 2005 Part 1
Space tourism
Opportunities and Challenges in the
Second Space Race
Steven FawkesBSc, DipTechEcon, PhD, CEng, FEI, FBIS
University of Illinois, 28th November 2005
The first and second space races
The emerging paradigm
Why go?
Who wants to go?
The space industry and the tourism industry
The development of space tourism
Some personal experiences
The challenges
Summary
Agenda
Agenda
The first and second space races
The emerging paradigm
Why go?
Who wants to go?
The space industry and the tourism industry
The development of space tourism
Some personal experiences
The challenges
Summary
The First Space Race - Results
1961 1969
1981
1998
40 years (1958 to 1998):• Approximately 400 space travellers
• 24 people around the moon
• 12 moon walkers
• 6 human spaceflight systems from 2 countries
• $1 trillion tax payers money spent by governments
• Cheapest way into space is still a Russian ICBM developed in 1950s
Space travel & air travel
• 40 years of space travel:– only about 400 people have been into space– 6 human space flight systems developed– $1 trillion of tax payers money spent– the cheapest way into space is still a Russian
ICBM designed in late 1950s
• 40 years of commercial aviation: – $1 trillion per year business– 1 million people flying at any one time– order of magnitude reductions in costs
The 1st Space Race - Characteristics
Motivation Geo-political
Actors Government
Market Environment Monopoly
Mode “Mission”
Return on Investment Negative
Beneficiaries Political systems & nation states
Cultural effect Large for short period
Business Sustainability Dependent on political will
Public involvement Spectators
Access to space Limited to astronauts with “superhero” status
Cost High
Public perception “Noble endeavour” or “waste of money”
Motivation Profit
Actors Private companies
Market Environment Competition
Mode “Trip”
Return on Investment Positive
Beneficiaries Shareholders and consumers
Cultural effect Large for an extended period – “opening the frontier” effect
Business Sustainability Dependent on financial success
Public involvement Public as participants
Access to space Open to nearly all
Cost Low
Public perception “Inevitable”, “natural” but could be negative environmental image
The 2nd Space Race - Characteristics
2004
The Second Space Race – results?
40 years (2004 to 2044):• millions of space tourists
• regular affordable orbital tourism
• tourism to moon
• tourism beyond the moon?
• $ billions invested & made
• competing human spaceflight systems
+ others
2008
The first and second space races
The emerging paradigm
Why go?
Who wants to go?
The space industry and the tourism industry
The development of space tourism
Some personal experiences
The challenges
Summary
Agenda
Space – the old paradigm
It is a long way away
It is expensive to get to
Only government agencies can go to space
The “mission” model
To fly in space you have to be a “superhero”
Space myths- it is a long way away
It is 100 miles from anywhere
You can be there in 10 to 15 minutes
How far away is space?
“Millions of miles away”
“A long long way away”
Space myths- it’s expensive
It is expensive because:
It was developed along military lines as a “battle ground” of the Cold War – the ICBM approach
The technology is not commercial – it is bespoke and thrown away after each use
Government space agencies are self serving bureacracies which have a vested interest in spending more tax money and convincing everyone that space is “hard to do”
A historical note
Prior to the late 1950s space was seen as natural extension of aviation
Re-usable spaceplanes would fly into space and return
(NB X-15 space flights)
Geo-political imperatives of the Cold War led to the ICBM approach
What might have been?
Space myths – the super hero astronaut
Astronauts are not super human
Passengers don’t have to be pilots!
You don’t have to be super-fit
Max g-load is 3 - 5g for a short period
After 10 to 15 minutes you are in zero-g
NB this pulls 4.5g!
John Glenn
1st American in orbit – 1962
Flew on Space Shuttle – 1998 - aged 77
Denis Tito
1st space tourist
Flew on Soyuz & ISS – 2001 – aged 60
Space – the myths refuted
It is a long way away
IT IS ONLY A HUNDRED MILES FROM ANYWHERE
It is expensive to get to
IT IS EXPENSIVE WHEN IT IS DONE BY GOVERNMENTS
To fly in space you have to be a “superhero”
ORDINARY PEOPLE CAN GO AS PASSENGERS
Space – the emerging paradigm
It is very close
It is not expensive to get to
Private companies will go into space
The “tourist” model
Almost anyone can go into space
Agenda
The first and second space races
The emerging paradigm
Why go?
Who wants to go?
The space industry and the tourism industry
The development of space tourism
Some personal experiences
The challenges
Summary
Why go to space?
Why would YOU want to go into space?
Why go to space?
The view
Zero gravity
The experience
“I don’t know what you could say about a day in which you have seen sixteen beautiful sunsets”“Exploration is really the essence of the human spirit”
“From 150 miles up all the problems of the world look small”
“From space you can’t see any borders”
The experience
Agenda
The first and second space races
The emerging paradigm
Why go?
Who wants to go?
The space industry and the tourism industry
The development of space tourism
Some personal experiences
The challenges
Summary
Who wants to go?
Market research in several countries shows a large proportion of the population want to go
Why?
Zero-g, the view, the experience
People have seen much of the world – now want experiences
NB
40 years ago going abroad was unusual (except in the military)
20 years ago long haul travel was unusual
Agenda
The first and second space races
The emerging paradigm
Why go?
Who wants to go?
The space industry and the tourism industry
The development of space tourism
Some personal experiences
The challenges
Summary
How big is the space industry?
What is the global turnover of the space industry?
Does anyone know?
Does anyone want to guess?
($ billions)
Is it a big or small industry?
$217,799
$125,913
$187,510
$177,260
$162,412
All $ millions
2002 results
US companies only
Source: Forbes 500$37,00037
12345
How big is the space industry?
Travel and Tourism Industry
$6.2 trillion
Space Industry
$37 billion
Comparing space industry to tourism industry
221,568,000
8.3% total
$1,712 bn
3.8% GDP
$1,512 bn
12% total
$2,833 bn
10.4% total
$919 bn
9.4% total
2005
2015
269,556,000
8.9% total
$2,660 bn
3.9% GDP
$3,023 bn
11% total
$4,062 bn
11% total
$1,673 bn
10% total
World Travel and Tourism Council survey
Tourist Industry Niches - Cruising
• 500,000 customers in 1970
• 10,400,000 customers in 2004
• 80 cruise lines
• 250 ships
• 30,000 cruises
• 2,000 destinations
• 40 ships under construction, 20 > 100,000 tonnes
• increasing demand from outside the US
Tourist Industry Niches – Adventure Travel
• $50 billion a year market
• growing at 10% per annum
“A trip or travel with the specific purpose of activity participation to explore a new experience, often involving perceived risk or controlled danger associated with personal challenges, in a natural environment or exotic outdoor setting”.
Tourist Industry Niches – Eco-Tourism
“all forms of tourism in which the tourists’ main motivation is the observation and appreciation of nature” Market growing faster than the industry as a whole Space – the ultimate eco-tourism? NB Developers must pay attention to the sustainability issue
Agenda
The first and second space races
The emerging paradigm
Why go?
Who wants to go?
The space industry and the tourism industry
The development of space tourism
Some personal experiences
The challenges
Summary
The development of space tourism
Stage 1 – space related tourism
Stage 2 – sub-orbital
Stage 3 – orbital
Stage 4 – beyond orbit
Here now
Within 3 to 5 years
Here now – mass market 15 years
25 to 50 years?
(But could be 2008)
Sub-orbital tourism
Flight into space – above 100km high
Five minutes of zero gravity
Great view
Coming to an airport near you soon!
SpaceShipOne
• first private space flight 21st June 2004
• winner of the X-Prize
• funded by Paul Allen
SpaceShipTwo
• flying by 2008
• funded by Richard Branson (Virgin Galactic)
Sub-orbital tourism update
Update – Virgin Galactic and competition
Rocketplane (US)
A modified Lear jet with a rocket
Recruiting
Virgin Galactic (UK/US)
$10M deposits
200,000 people registered interest
To fly 2008Starchaser (UK/US)
Recruiting in New Mexico
Rocket technology
ARCA (Romania)
VTOVL
Blue Origin (US)
Recruiting
Backed by Jeff Bezos
Orbital space flight
1 to 2 weeks on ISS
2001 - Denis Tito
2002 - Mark Shuttleworth
2005 - Greg Olsen
4th in training
Up to 2 slots a year
Advertised price of $20 M (but haggle)
Contact Space Adventures!
Orbital space flight
Orbital tourism - space hotels
All the facilities of cruise ships
Zero-g and a great view of Earth
1 to 2 weeks in orbit
Possible EVA experience
Cost comparable to cruising
Possible use for the ISS?
Update - prizes
X Prize won in 2004 by SpaceShipOne
America Space Prize
• initiated and 50% funded by Robert Bigelow
• $50M prize
• 7 people to orbit
• quick turn-around
NASA Centennial Challenges
Beyond Earth orbit – 2008?
Space related tourism
Visits to space facilities
Zero g flights
Flights to the edge of space
Other space training
EVA training in water tank
Centrifuge
Simulations
Full space medical
Agenda
The first and second space races
The emerging paradigm
Why go?
Who wants to go?
The space industry and the tourism industry
The development of space tourism
Some personal experiences
The challenges
Summary
Zero g training flight, Star City August 2004
