Space Commercialization in the Next Decade - Economic Risk ... · 1990 Palapa B2R 1990 BSB-2 1990...
Transcript of Space Commercialization in the Next Decade - Economic Risk ... · 1990 Palapa B2R 1990 BSB-2 1990...
Copyright © 2006 Boeing.
Space Commercialization inthe Next Decade - Economic
Risk or Opportunity
Steve Apfel
Boeing Integrated Defense Systems
12 November 2007
Presented at Reach for Space 2007 Conference
Washington DC
Copyright © 2006 Boeing.
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Space Commercialization – Communications Example
§ Space Commercialization in communications hasbeen successful
– TV, Radio, regional direct to home internet , internet datatrunking, regional and global mobile phone and data services
– Commercial provision of government communications hasbeen a win win for Government and commercial operators
§ There have also been failures
– Iridium, Globalstar, ICO - all are in existence with newbusiness plans
– Teledesic, Astrolink and others never got out of developmentstage
– $ Billions of dollars lost on failed ventures in the late 90’s
Copyright © 2006 Boeing.
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Syncom1963
Intelsat l(Early Bird)
1965
Intelsat II1966
ATS 1966
TACSAT1969
Intelsat IV 1971
3331972 Anik A1974 Westar
1976 Palapa A
Intelsat IVA1975
Marisat1976
Comstar1976
Leasat1984
Intelsat VI 1989
376HP1996 MEASAT 2
1997 Thor II
1998 Sirius 3
1998 Bonum 12000 Astra 2D
2003 e-BIRD
2005 MEASATt 3
601 Mobile1995 AMSC
1996 MSAT
3761980 SBS 1
1981 SBS 21982 Westar IV, V
1982 Anik C3, D1
1982 SBS 3 F2
1983 Anik C2
1983 Palapa B11983 Telstar 3A
1983 Galaxy I, II
1984 SBS 4 F4
1984 Telstar 3B
1984 Galaxy III1984 Anik D2
1985 Brasilsat A
1985 Anik C1
393/376W1989 JCSAT (393)
1990 SBS 6 (393)2000 Brasilsat B4
6011992 Optus B1
1992 Galaxy VII
1993 Astra 1C
1993 Galaxy IV1993 Solidaridad 1
1993 DIRECTV 1
1994 PAS-2
1994 DIRECTV 2
1994 Optus B31994 Solidaridad 2
1994 Astra 1D
1995 MSAT-2
1995 DIRECTV 3
1995 PAS-41995 JCSAT-3
601HP1997 PAS-51997 Astra 1G1997 Galaxy VIII-i1998 Astra 2A1998 SatMex 51998 Orion 31998 PAS-6B1999 AsiaSat 3S1999 Astra 1H
1999 DIRECTV 1-R, IVR
7021999 Galaxy XI
2000 PAS-1R, 9
2000 Anik F1
2001 XM-1, -2
2002 Galaxy IIIC 2004 Anik F2
2005 XM-3
2005 Spaceway F1, F2
2005 NewSkies-8
2006 XM-42007 DIRECTV-10
2007 Spaceway F3
2007/8 DIRECTV-11
GEM2000 Thuraya
2003 Thuraya-22007 Thuraya-3
2008 MSV 1-21985 Morelos A, B1985 Telstar 3C
1985 AUSSAT A1, A2
1987 Palapa-B2P
1987 Aussat A31988 SBS 5 F5
1989 BSB
1990 AsiaSat 1
1990 Palapa B2R
1990 BSB-21990 Galaxy VI
1992 Galaxy V
1992 Palapa-B4
1993 THAICOM 1
1994 Galaxy I-R
1994 APSTAR 11994 Brasilsat B1
1994 THAICOM 2
1995 Brasilsat B2
1996 MEASAT 1
1996 Galaxy IX1996 APSTAR IA
1997 BSAT-1a
1998 Brasilsat B3
1998 BSAT-1b
1998 Thor III2002 Hellas-Sat
2002 Astra 3A
1995 Astra 1E
1995 Galaxy III-R
1996 Palapa C11996 PAS-3R
1996 Astra 1F
1996 MSAT-1
1996 Palapa-C2
1997 JCSAT-4, -51997 Superbird C
1999 TDRS-H1999 JCSAT 6
2002 TDRS I, J
2002 JCSAT 8
2004 Superbird-6
2000 Galaxy XR2000 SUPERBIRD-42000 PAS-92001 PAX-102001 Astra 2C2001 DIRECTV-4S2003 Galaxy XIII
2003 AsiaSat 42005 GOES-N2005 MEASAT-32007 GOES-O2008 GOES-P
Boeing’s Commercial & CivilCommunications Satellites
Log 2006000675 rev 011806Page 3
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Every Current Service Sector is Rapidly Evolving
Fixed
Broadcast
Mobile
Milsatcom
New Services Now inNew Services Now in
OperationOperation
ComingComing
OnlineOnline
Ka-band HDTV broadcast
Broadband Multimedia
Mobile Video
Fully flexible beams
Fully flexible bandwidth
IP Based Systems
Optical Crosslinks
Network Centric Ops
Full
Mesh
Fully flexible
beams &
bandwidth,
Onboard
Router,Optical
Crosslinks
GreatlyIncreased
HDTV
Capacity
Reduced
Terminal
Sizes, Return
Channel forMobile
Broadcast
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Market Forces are Driving ProductsGeneral Trends
Mobility
BandwidthIntensive
Applications
NetworkCentric
Operations
BusinessFlexibility,
DeploymentPredictability
FlexibleBandwidth
Flexible SignalRouting
Flexible Beams
ReducedTerminal
Sizes
IncreasedSatellite
Bandwidth
BandwidthEfficient
Modulation,Compression
Standard,Flexible
Payloads
Higher power, more standard,more flexible satellites:
Any bandwidth, anywhere,any time
SatelliteCommunications Trends
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A Vision of the Future for Communication SatellitesHighly Reconfigurable Satellites with Flexible Payloads
A single satellite design can serve multiple orbit slots
Operating Mode 1Operating Mode 1
Operating Mode 4Operating Mode 4Example: On-orbit backupfor multiple satellites
Example: commercialtelecom services and videodistribution in US
Operating Mode 3Operating Mode 3Example: commercial &government spot beams andvideo distribution regionalbeams
Operating Mode 2Operating Mode 2Example: commercial spotbeams for underservedregions and surge capability(Olympics, World Cup,natural disaster)
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Introduction/Thesis§ What are some of the potential new markets in
space ?
– Satellite servicing – Orbital Express and others
– Tourism – Sub orbital, orbital and Hotels
– Materials processing - TBD
§ All new frontiers open up with newopportunities when the price of bringing the“middle class” is affordable
– The “new world”
– The “West”
– Automobiles
– Commercial Aircraft
– Commercial spacecraft ??
§ Space is still a new frontier 50+ years after thefirst exploration
What about the future ?
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Satellite servicing – Orbital Express and others
§ Servicing types
– Refueling – does it make economic sense ?
§ Launch Vehicle underperformance insurance
§ Cost of getting the fuel to the S/C
§ Desire or requirement for an upgraded capability
§ Economics of the satellite propulsion system
– Repair and replace
§ Failed component replacement
§ Penalty (?) for line replaceable unit design
§ Timing of replacement
– Deployment issues repair
§ Risk of making things worse
– Anomaly resolution – “look but do not touch”
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FIRST fully autonomous “soft” capture of a satellite whilestationkeeping
FIRST fully autonomous transfer of propellant from onevehicle to another on orbit with US technology
FIRST fully autonomous transfer of a component fromone vehicle to another using advanced robotics
FIRST fully autonomous capture of free flying vehicle &component transfer using closed-loop servo visionsystem with autonomous fault recovery
Free Flyer Capture
OE FirstsFIRST fully autonomous capture & servicing of asatellite from 200 km range without client assistance
FIRST fully autonomous on-board navigation &guidance to approach & stationkeep within 10 cm ofclient using passive, targetless systems
Active Half of
Capture Mechanism
Passive Half of
Capture Mechanism
Active Half of
Capture Mechanism
Passive Half of
Capture Mechanism
FIRST on-orbit use of embedded IEEE 1394 (Firewire)spacecraft network – enables computer ORU transfer
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Tourism – Sub orbital, orbital and Hotels
§ When will I get to go ?
– Price point needs to be at upper middle class affordability
– $10000 ? – that’s what my wife told me….
§ Insurance, indemnification, failures
– How will these affect the business case and the market
– Can this fledging business survive in today’s litigiousenvironment
§ Small commercial aircraft market is good analogy
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Zero G Materials processing
§ What, how much, why ?
§ How do we even get the knowledge of what can bedone ?
– Space station not ideal for zero g
– Lower cost transportation is key
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What does the past tell us about the risks and opportunities ?
§ Is there a business plan that makes sense ?
§ Is the technology at a sufficient technology readinesslevel for a commercial activity ?
§ Is there an non served or underserved need that aspace system could fulfill ?
§ And the (much?) farther future
– Space Power to the Earth