Southwest Dallas National - LoopNet · 2019-12-05 · Sales Past 12 Months Southwest Dallas Office...

PREPARED BY

Richard Lowrance

Owner

Thornton Office Report

Southwest Dallas & NationalDallas-Fort Worth - TX

OverviewThornton Office Report

326 K (12.1 K) 11.3% 2.1%12 Mo Deliveries in SF 12 Mo Net Absorption in SF Vacancy Rate 12 Mo Rent Growth

Southwest Dallas includes some gentrifying areas nearthe Dallas CBD as well as many southern Dallas suburbsthat are collectively referred to as Best Southwest in aneffort to improve cooperation between the cities. Thearea represents 200,000 citizens, with the lion's share ofthe population found in Cedar Hill (48,000), DeSoto(51,900), Duncanville (39,700), and Lancaster (38,400).The area is home to several institutions of highereducation. Including Cedar Valley College, the Universityof North Texas at Dallas, Mountain View CommunityCollege, and Texas State Technical College. While officedevelopment has never taken off here, even in areasadjacent to the CBD. The area is poised for growth in thelong term. An abundance of affordable land and theanchors of high learning will serve the region well.

Local developers such as Matthews Southwest, Hoque

Global, and Buzzworks Properties continue to invest inthe Cedars, and West Dallas steadily evolves into alive/play environment. Furthermore, if the Dallas-to-Houston high-speed rail project ever comes to fruition,the area surrounding the station (expected to be in theCedars) would be ripe for office development. Also, inthe southern part of the submarket, part of the RedbirdMall will be converted into office space, which could becompleted by 2020.

Vacancies in Southwest Dallas are near all-time lows,tracking well below the Dallas market average. Despite arecent slowdown, rent growth has generally outperformedthe metro average over the past few years. Despitepromising future trends, the submarket’s upside is limitedby its lack of desirability and 4 & 5 Star inventory, atleast in the near term.

KEY INDICATORS

Market RentVacancy RateRBACurrent Quarter Availability RateNet Absorption

SFDeliveries SF

UnderConstruction

$29.1638.4%774,3804 & 5 Star 38.4% (7,712) 0 0

$22.8010.5%3,188,2373 Star 10.7% (19,223) 0 0

$20.164.7%2,778,7381 & 2 Star 5.7% (11,137) 0 0

$22.4411.3%6,741,355Submarket 11.8% (38,072) 0 0

ForecastAverage

HistoricalAverage

12 MonthAnnual Trends Peak When Trough When

9.3%12.7%4.7%Vacancy Change (YOY) 19.6% 1985 Q3 6.0% 2018 Q3

58,55183,180(12.1 K)Net Absorption SF 467,448 2008 Q1 (84,090) 2011 Q4

111,30993,740326 KDeliveries SF 441,131 1984 Q4 0 2013 Q3

1.8%1.7%2.1%Rent Growth 17.8% 1996 Q4 -19.2% 1988 Q2

N/A$6.6M$7.5 MSales Volume $46.8M 2015 Q4 $0 1995 Q3

12/4/2019Copyrighted report licensed to Property Cashin - 1096082.

LeasingThornton Office Report

The fundamentals of Southwest Dallas are stable. Afteryears of positive net absorption, coupled with minimalnew supply, vacancies are near historic lows, hovering atabout 7%. Southwest Dallas’ vacancy rate comparesfavorably to submarkets with a similar heavyconcentration of 1 & 2 Star and 3 Star inventory, such asGrand Prairie and Garland. There is a notable lack oflarge contiguous blocks of space in SouthwestDallas—as of 19Q3, only a handful of assets had morethan 25,000 SF of contiguous space available, and adozen properties had more than 10,000 SF available.

South Dallas is known more for its warehouse/distributionsector than its office employment base. The SouthwestDallas Submarket holds more than 93 million SF ofindustrial inventory, compared to only 6 million SF ofoffice stock. The local industrial market is booming, anddue to structural factors like rail and highwayinfrastructure and a mostly blue-collar labor force,industrial projects should remain the focus here. Whilethere is potential for office development in up-and-

coming neighborhoods near Downtown Dallas, such asthe Cedars, Trinity Groves, and Oak Cliff, large-scaledevelopment is likely years if not decades away.

The largest single tenant in the submarket is AT&T,which operates a 206,000-SF call center PinnacleBusiness Park. A significant portion of tenants with largefootprints are related to the government or public sectorlike the Dallas Housing Authority, the Office of theAttorney General, and the Social Security Administration.Leasing activity slowed in 19Q3 to 32,700 SF, down froma record 19Q2 of 84,000 SF. The Dallas CountyWorkforce Development Board accounted for 30,000 SFwhen it signed onto its new space at 3560 W CampWisdom Road. There is also a heavier than averageconcentration of transportation and logistics that operateoffices submarket. Tenant movement is rare, andtypically only a handful of new leases for more than5,000 SF are signed per year on non-owner/userproperties.

NET ABSORPTION, NET DELIVERIES & VACANCY


Top Net Absorption

1.1M 1.1M

1.3M 1.3M 1.3M 1.4M 1.4M

1.7M 1.7M

2.3M 2.4M

2.5M 2.6M

2.7M 3.2M 3.2M 3.2M

4.1M 5.2M 5.2M

0M 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M

Salt Lake CityChicago

Los AngelesEast Bay

ProvoRichmondStamford

RaleighNashville

AtlantaDenverAustin

San FranciscoPhoenix

San JoseWashington

CharlotteSeattle

New YorkDallas-Fort Worth

Net Absorption (Last 4 Quarters)

Top Net Deliveries

1.0M 1.0M

1.3M 1.3M 1.3M

1.7M 1.7M 1.8M 1.8M 1.9M

2.3M 2.4M

2.6M 2.8M 2.8M

3.0M 3.4M

3.8M 5.4M

6.0M

0M 1M 2M 3M 4M 5M 6M 7M

BostonMinneapolis

ProvoRichmond

San AntonioNashville

PhiladelphiaRaleigh

ChicagoDenverAtlantaSeattle

PhoenixHouston

San FranciscoCharlotte

WashingtonAustin

Dallas-Fort WorthNew York

Net Deliveries (Last 4 Quarters)

Most Space Under Construction

2.3M 2.5M 2.6M 2.6M 3.0M 3.3M 3.7M

4.4M 6.0M 6.3M 6.6M

7.1M 7.2M 7.5M 7.7M

8.4M 9.1M

10.5M 12.2M

26.9M

0M 5M 10M 15M 20M 25M 30M

MinneapolisPortlandPhoenix

MiamiDenver

Salt Lake CityHouston

CharlotteSan Francisco

San JoseSeattle

Los AngelesNashville

AtlantaAustin

ChicagoDallas-Fort Worth

BostonWashington

New York

Under Construction

Starts and Under Construction

0M

20M

40M

60M

80M

100M

120M

140M

160M

180M

0M

5M

10M

15M

20M

25M

30M

35M

40M

45M

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

Under

Constr

uction S

F

Constr

uction S

tart

s in S

F

Starts Under Construction

LeasingThornton Office Report

VACANCY RATE

AVAILABILITY RATE


Page 4

RentThornton Office Report

2018, it has remained positive into 2019, rising slowly at2%. With vacancies near historical lows, landlords are inas strong a position as ever to continue to push rents.However, the lack of demand for office space in thesubmarket could keep rent growth relatively mutedcompared to more dynamic submarkets throughout themetroplex.

At about $21/SF gross, asking rents in Southwest Dallas are among the lowest in Dallas-Fort Worth. Rents in the submarket align with other tertiary office nodes in inner-ring suburbs like East Northeast Fort Worth, Garland, and Southeast Dallas. Rent growth has performed well this cycle, though, with rent growth outpacing the metro average from 2015–17. While rent growth slowed in


Page 6

MARKET RENT PER SQUARE FOOT

ConstructionThornton Office Report

The potential for major office development in SouthwestDallas is mostly tied to the emergence of close-inneighborhoods such as the Cedars, Trinity Groves, andOak Cliff. In particular, the northern part of the Cedarscould someday be the home of Dallas’ high-speed railstation, making office development feasible there.Projects like Hoque Global's SoGood @ Cedars mixed-use development could potentially bring officedevelopment to the neighborhood.

In the near to mid-term, however, the focus in terms of

new supply is on the site of the old Redbird Mall. Localinvestor Peter Brodsky is working on redeveloping thesite, including converting part of the mall into officespace. In June 2018, the Dallas City Council approved$22 million in funding—and $15.6 million in taxincentives—for the redevelopment. The redevelopmentbegan in 2019 and could be delivered before the end of2020. Rents on the property are advertised at $14/SFtriple net, which is some of the lowest asking rents fornew office space in the metro. Other components includea new hotel, restaurants, and multifamily for the site.

DELIVERIES & DEMOLITIONS


Page 8

Sales Past 12 MonthsSouthwest Dallas Office

44 7.0% $86 23.2%Sale Comparables Avg. Cap Rate Avg. Price/SF Avg. Vacancy At Sale

SALE COMPARABLE LOCATIONS

SALE COMPARABLES SUMMARY STATISTICS

Sales Attributes Low Average Median High

Sale Price $70,000 $1,077,940 $875,000 $2,133,000

Price Per SF $50 $86 $66 $356

Cap Rate 6.1% 7.0% 6.3% 9.4%

Time Since Sale in Months 0.9 6.2 5.9 11.9

Property Attributes Low Average Median High

Building SF 669 9,266 3,887 73,496

Stories 1 1 1 2

Typical Floor SF 669 5,717 3,234 36,748

Vacancy Rate At Sale 0% 23.2% 0% 100%

Year Built 1925 1977 1977 2016

Star Rating 2.3


Page 12

Sales Past 12 MonthsThornton Office Report

Property Name - Address Rating Yr Built Bldg SF Vacancy Price Price/SF

Property

Sale Date

Sale

Cap Rate

RECENT SIGNIFICANT SALES

-1 916 E Highway 672014 6,000 0% $2,133,000 $3569/5/2019 7.0%

-2 Offices at Hillside Village…2007 29,997 53.6% $1,988,434 $66

305 W FM 13829/27/2019 6.3%

-3 Offices at Hillside Village…2007 28,122 53.6% $1,864,144 $66

305 W FM 13829/27/2019 6.3%

-4 211 W Pleasant Run Rd1984 12,869 25.8% $875,000 $688/9/2019 9.4%

-5 722 E Wheatland Rd1970 5,970 0% $390,000 $6510/4/2019 -

-6 880 W Kiest Blvd1977 3,138 100% $225,000 $728/2/2019 -

-7 431-433 W Wheatland Rd1977 1,399 0% $70,000 $504/11/2019 -

-8 1011 S Main St1950 669 0% - -3/15/2019 -

-9 Stoneridge One1987 73,496 43.8% - -

2550 Beckleymeade Ave3/8/2019 -

-10 JP Morgan Chase Bldg1985 28,030 32.3% - -

1881 Sylvan Ave3/7/2019 -

-11 415 E Pleasant Run Rd1957 1,120 0% - -2/13/2019 -

-12 400 N Zang Blvd1963 3,600 0% - -2/12/2019 -

-13 202 W 10th St1925 2,037 0% - -2/7/2019 -

-13 202 W 10th St1925 2,037 0% - -2/7/2019 -

-14 428 W Pleasant Run Rd1971 2,380 0% - -1/31/2019 -

-15 1105 S Main St1938 1,474 0% - -1/21/2019 -

-16 1122 N Bishop Ave1961 5,000 0% - -12/23/2018 -

-17 Bldg 11962 3,773 0% - -

321 Cooper St12/20/2018 -

-17 Bldg 11962 3,773 0% - -

321 Cooper St12/20/2018 -

-18 202 Santa Fe Trl2001 2,583 0% - -12/19/2018 -


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Supply & Demand TrendsThornton Office Report

OVERALL SUPPLY & DEMAND

Net AbsorptionInventory

% of Inv Construction RatioSF SF Growth % Growth SFYear

2023 89,446 1.3% 0.7%50,145 1.86,971,214

2022 89,353 1.3% 0.2%16,081 5.66,881,768

2021 59,185 0.9% 0.5%35,982 1.66,792,415

2020 (8,125) -0.1% 0.7%46,366 -6,733,230

2019 322,300 5.0% 2.0%135,508 2.46,741,355

YTD 322,300 5.0% 0%(855) -6,741,355

2018 41,239 0.6% 1.4%92,104 0.46,419,055

2017 73,732 1.2% 1.4%89,472 0.86,377,816

2016 45,480 0.7% 2.3%145,477 0.36,304,084

2015 31,972 0.5% -0.1%(3,942) -6,258,604

2014 20,789 0.3% 1.2%72,782 0.36,226,632

2013 1,321 0% 0%(1,214) -6,205,843

2012 (9,827) -0.2% 1.5%95,437 -6,204,522

2011 20,871 0.3% -1.4%(84,090) -6,214,349

2010 3,976 0.1% 2.2%133,595 06,193,478

2009 114,716 1.9% -0.4%(23,339) -6,189,502

2008 37,817 0.6% 0.9%52,421 0.76,074,786

2007 351,542 6.2% 7.4%444,597 0.86,036,969


Page 14

3 STAR SUPPLY & DEMAND

Net AbsorptionInventory

% of Inv Construction RatioSF SF Growth % Growth SFYear

2023 0 0% -0.6%(19,216) -3,188,237

2022 0 0% -0.6%(18,825) -3,188,237

2021 0 0% -0.5%(15,137) -3,188,237

2020 0 0% -0.3%(9,549) -3,188,237

2019 7,300 0.2% -1.9%(60,021) -3,188,237

YTD 7,300 0.2% -2.8%(88,484) -3,188,237

2018 41,239 1.3% 1.2%38,723 1.13,180,937

2017 62,988 2.0% 1.5%48,339 1.33,139,698

2016 51,355 1.7% 3.6%110,946 0.53,076,710

2015 31,972 1.1% 0%(1,451) -3,025,355

2014 26,189 0.9% 2.2%66,882 0.42,993,383

2013 6,339 0.2% -0.5%(14,836) -2,967,194

2012 5,800 0.2% 2.3%68,572 0.12,960,855

2011 38,183 1.3% -0.2%(6,256) -2,955,055

2010 4,851 0.2% 2.4%70,756 0.12,916,872

2009 35,259 1.2% -1.5%(43,354) -2,912,021

2008 37,817 1.3% 1.8%53,042 0.72,876,762

2007 317,328 12.6% 14.7%416,186 0.82,838,945

Rent & VacancyThornton Office Report

OVERALL RENT & VACANCY

Market Rent

Per SF Index % Growth Vs Hist PeakYear

Vacancy

SF Percent Ppts Chg

2023 129 1.7% 9.6%$24.12 709,028 10.2% 0.5%

2022 127 1.7% 7.8%$23.73 668,897 9.7% 1.0%

2021 125 1.9% 5.9%$23.32 594,827 8.8% 0.3%

2020 123 1.9% 4.0%$22.89 570,787 8.5% -0.8%

2019 120 2.1% 2.1%$22.48 624,498 9.3% 2.4%

YTD 120 1.9% 1.9%$22.44 760,870 11.3% 4.5%

2018 118 1.3% 0%$22.01 437,715 6.8% -0.8%

2017 116 3.0% -1.3%$21.73 488,580 7.7% -0.3%

2016 113 2.3% -4.2%$21.10 504,320 8.0% -1.7%

2015 111 10.9% -6.3%$20.62 604,317 9.7% 0.5%

2014 100 2.8% -15.5%$18.60 568,403 9.1% -0.9%

2013 97 2.4% -17.8%$18.09 620,396 10.0% 0%

2012 95 0.5% -19.8%$17.67 617,861 10.0% -1.7%

2011 94 -0.8% -20.2%$17.58 723,125 11.6% 1.7%

2010 95 -2.3% -19.5%$17.72 618,164 10.0% -2.1%

2009 97 -2.8% -17.6%$18.14 747,783 12.1% 2.0%

2008 100 -1.1% -15.2%$18.66 609,728 10.0% -0.3%

2007 101 4.3% -14.3%$18.88 624,332 10.3% -2.3%

4 & 5 STAR RENT & VACANCY

Market Rent


Vacancy

SF Percent Ppts Chg

2023 140 1.2% 12.8%$31.25 129,330 12.3% -1.2%

2022 139 1.2% 11.4%$30.88 128,599 13.5% 2.5%

2021 137 1.9% 10.1%$30.50 93,582 11.0% -2.4%

2020 134 2.4% 8.1%$29.94 103,994 13.4% -11.6%

2019 131 5.6% 5.6%$29.25 193,326 25.0% 17.5%

YTD 131 5.2% 5.2%$29.16 297,226 38.4% 30.9%

2018 124 3.0% 0%$27.71 34,431 7.5% -1.6%

2017 121 3.6% -2.9%$26.89 41,785 9.1% 5.6%

2016 117 3.7% -6.3%$25.96 15,500 3.5% 0%

2015 112 4.4% -9.7%$25.03 15,500 3.5% -0.7%

2014 108 8.3% -13.5%$23.97 18,625 4.2% 0.5%

2013 99 3.1% -20.1%$22.13 16,556 3.7% -2.2%

2012 96 5.4% -22.5%$21.47 26,442 5.9% -0.6%

2011 91 0.8% -26.5%$20.37 29,345 6.5% -4.3%

2010 91 -2.3% -27.1%$20.20 48,613 10.8% 0.2%

2009 93 -7.2% -25.4%$20.68 47,822 10.7% 10.7%

2008 100 2.3% -19.6%$22.28 0 0% 0%

2007 98 8.4% -21.4%$21.79 0 0% 0%


Page 16

Rent & VacancyThornton Office Report

3 STAR RENT & VACANCY

Market Rent


Vacancy

SF Percent Ppts Chg

2023 122 1.7% 10.4%$24.67 368,556 11.6% 0.6%

2022 120 1.8% 8.6%$24.27 349,340 11.0% 0.6%

2021 118 2.0% 6.7%$23.83 330,515 10.4% 0.5%

2020 116 2.3% 4.6%$23.37 315,378 9.9% 0.3%

2019 113 2.3% 2.3%$22.85 305,829 9.6% 2.1%

YTD 113 2.1% 2.1%$22.80 334,296 10.5% 3.0%

2018 111 1.1% 0%$22.34 238,512 7.5% 0%

2017 109 0.6% -1.1%$22.09 235,996 7.5% 0.3%

2016 109 0% -1.8%$21.95 221,347 7.2% -2.1%

2015 109 17.7% -1.8%$21.94 280,938 9.3% 1.0%

2014 92 -1.1% -16.6%$18.64 247,515 8.3% -1.4%

2013 93 1.2% -15.7%$18.83 288,208 9.7% 0.7%

2012 92 1.8% -16.7%$18.61 267,033 9.0% -2.1%

2011 90 1.9% -18.2%$18.27 329,805 11.2% 1.4%

2010 89 -3.1% -19.8%$17.93 285,366 9.8% -2.3%

2009 92 -8.4% -17.2%$18.51 351,271 12.1% 2.6%

2008 100 0.3% -9.6%$20.20 272,658 9.5% -0.7%

2007 100 6.5% -9.9%$20.13 287,883 10.1% -5.2%

1 & 2 STAR RENT & VACANCY

Market Rent


Vacancy

SF Percent Ppts Chg

2023 135 1.8% 7.2%$21.50 211,142 7.7% 0.8%

2022 133 1.8% 5.3%$21.11 190,958 7.0% 0.8%

2021 130 1.7% 3.4%$20.73 170,730 6.2% 0.7%

2020 128 1.1% 1.7%$20.39 151,415 5.5% 1.0%

2019 127 0.6% 0.6%$20.16 125,343 4.5% -1.4%

YTD 127 0.5% 0.5%$20.16 129,348 4.7% -1.3%

2018 126 0.9% 0%$20.05 164,772 5.9% -1.7%

2017 125 5.9% -0.9%$19.87 210,799 7.6% -2.0%

2016 118 4.9% -6.4%$18.77 267,473 9.6% -1.4%

2015 113 4.8% -10.8%$17.89 307,879 11.1% 0.2%

2014 107 6.0% -14.9%$17.06 302,263 10.9% -0.5%

2013 101 3.7% -19.7%$16.10 315,632 11.3% -0.3%

2012 98 -3.0% -22.6%$15.53 324,386 11.6% -1.3%

2011 101 -4.7% -20.2%$16.00 363,975 12.9% 2.9%

2010 106 -1.3% -16.2%$16.80 284,185 10.0% -2.3%

2009 107 7.1% -15.2%$17.01 348,690 12.3% 0.4%

2008 100 -4.4% -20.8%$15.89 337,070 11.9% 0%

2007 105 0.1% -17.1%$16.63 336,449 11.9% 0.1%


Page 17

Sale TrendsThornton Office Report

OVERALL SALES

Completed Transactions (1)

Turnover Avg Price/SFDeals VolumeYear

Market Pricing Trends (2)

Avg Price Price IndexAvg Cap Rate Price/SF Cap Rate

2023 -- - -- 191- $178.78 7.2%

2022 -- - -- 188- $176.49 7.2%

2021 -- - -- 188- $176.06 7.0%

2020 -- - -- 183- $171.53 7.0%

2019 -- - -- 175- $163.64 7.1%

YTD $7.5 M35 5.4% $86.24$1,077,940 1747.2% $163.08 7.1%

2018 $0.8 M39 3.9% $42.50$265,000 1696.1% $158.08 7.1%

2017 $6.4 M40 4.5% $80.46$482,385 1658.8% $154.98 7.0%

2016 $1.8 M42 4.4% $174.79$356,600 1657.3% $154.34 6.9%

2015 $46.8 M43 9.3% $150.15$6,686,318 1557.7% $144.90 7.0%

2014 $12.6 M39 8.4% $95.10$1,570,006 1479.2% $137.74 7.1%

2013 $2.4 M34 4.2% $63.75$588,856 1346.5% $125.24 7.4%

2012 $9.2 M30 4.9% $261.51$4,607,070 1257.6% $116.74 7.8%

2011 $18.1 M32 5.4% $108.10$1,511,808 1158.3% $107.35 8.1%

2010 $31.2 M16 5.3% $118.34$10,316,667 1029.4% $95.69 8.8%

2009 $6.6 M25 2.4% $69.12$471,571 8811.0% $82.29 9.8%

2008 $22.4 M18 5.7% $153.68$2,035,089 1008.8% $93.70 9.3%

(1) Completed transaction data is based on actual arms-length sales transactions and levels are dependent on the mix of what happened to sell in the period.

(2) Market price trends data is based on the estimated price movement of all properties in the market, informed by actual transactions that have occurred.

4 & 5 STAR SALES





2023 -- - -- 168- $230.75 7.2%

2022 -- - -- 167- $229.01 7.2%

2021 -- - -- 167- $229.08 7.0%

2020 -- - -- 163- $223.55 7.0%

2019 -- - -- 155- $212.74 7.1%

YTD -- - -- 154- $211.82 7.1%

2018 -- - -- 149- $204.11 7.1%

2017 -- - -- 145- $198.79 7.0%

2016 -- - -- 149- $203.77 6.8%

2015 $33.5 M1 45.9% $162.59$33,500,000 1438.0% $196.59 6.9%

2014 $0 M1 16.6% -- 142- $194.21 7.0%

2013 -- - -- 131- $180.19 7.2%

2012 -- - -- 124- $170.74 7.5%

2011 $6.4 M1 16.6% $85.85$6,400,500 118- $162.49 7.7%

2010 $29.4 M1 45.9% $142.69$29,400,000 1059.8% $144.14 8.4%

2009 -- - -- 89- $121.67 9.5%

2008 -- - -- 100- $137.21 9.0%




Page 18

Sale TrendsThornton Office Report

3 STAR SALES





2023 -- - -- 201- $204.20 6.9%

2022 -- - -- 198- $201.58 6.9%

2021 -- - -- 198- $201.22 6.7%

2020 -- - -- 192- $195.79 6.7%

2019 -- - -- 183- $185.96 6.8%

YTD $6.4 M14 8.4% $90.96$1,593,894 1826.5% $185.24 6.8%

2018 $0 M13 3.9% -- 1766.1% $179.24 6.8%

2017 $4.0 M17 3.1% $80.67$648,583 1739.9% $175.75 6.7%

2016 $0.4 M7 2.0% $104.52$375,000 173- $175.63 6.6%

2015 $13.0 M10 4.7% $135.76$3,243,806 1596.5% $161.76 6.7%

2014 $11.9 M15 10.4% $96.18$2,389,582 1519.2% $153.68 6.8%

2013 $0 M4 2.5% -- 136- $138.77 7.2%

2012 $8.4 M7 5.7% $276.18$8,350,000 1277.6% $129.07 7.5%

2011 $8.9 M10 3.8% $292.70$2,970,000 1148.4% $115.58 7.9%

2010 $1.3 M5 2.7% $28.89$1,300,000 1019.0% $102.91 8.6%

2009 $3.0 M2 0.9% $529.15$2,950,000 87- $88.67 9.6%

2008 $19.2 M6 6.9% $211.16$6,385,327 100- $101.74 9.0%



1 & 2 STAR SALES





2023 -- - -- 187- $135.13 7.6%

2022 -- - -- 184- $133.08 7.5%

2021 -- - -- 183- $132.44 7.4%

2020 -- - -- 179- $129.21 7.3%

2019 -- - -- 172- $124.35 7.4%

YTD $1.2 M21 3.5% $67.22$390,000 1729.4% $124.09 7.5%

2018 $0.8 M26 4.7% $42.50$265,000 167- $120.96 7.4%

2017 $2.4 M23 6.8% $80.11$339,929 1647.8% $118.93 7.3%

2016 $1.4 M35 7.7% $212.91$352,000 1617.3% $116.14 7.3%

2015 $0.3 M32 8.4% $32.57$164,500 1548.5% $111.14 7.4%

2014 $0.6 M23 5.0% $77.99$204,046 143- $103.72 7.5%

2013 $2.4 M30 6.8% $63.75$588,856 1316.5% $94.41 7.8%

2012 $0.9 M23 4.9% $172.83$864,140 121- $87.56 8.2%

2011 $2.8 M21 5.2% $45.06$353,900 1148.0% $82.54 8.5%

2010 $0.5 M10 1.6% $37.50$250,000 102- $73.89 9.1%

2009 $3.7 M23 4.3% $40.60$280,923 8811.0% $64.00 10.2%

2008 $3.2 M12 5.3% $58.78$403,750 1008.8% $72.34 9.7%




Page 19

Top and Bottom Rent Growth Markets

-0.3%-0.0%

0.2%0.2%0.4%0.7%1.0%1.1%1.1%1.5%1.6%1.8%2.0%2.0%

2.4%2.6%2.6%2.8%

3.4%3.5%

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

BaltimoreNorthern New Jersey

Kansas CityCleveland

DetroitNew York

WashingtonHouston

BostonOrange County

CincinnatiPittsburgh

Saint LouisMiami


PortlandColumbus

Los AngelesIndianapolis

Rent Growth, YOY

Note: Includes markets with 100M+ SF inventory.

2.4%2.6%2.6%2.8%

3.4%3.5%3.5%3.6%3.7%3.7%

4.1%4.2%

4.9%5.0%5.2%5.5%5.6%

6.3%6.6%6.8%

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%


PortlandColumbus

Los AngelesIndianapolisMinneapolis

San DiegoPhiladelphia

PhoenixAtlantaDenver

SacramentoSan Jose

TampaEast Bay

San FranciscoSeattle

CharlotteAustin

Rent Growth, YOY

Note: Includes markets with 100M+ SF inventory.

Office Rent Growth: Base Case Forecast

Forecast

(12%)

(8%)

(4%)

0%

4%

8%

12%

$24

$26

$28

$30

$32

$34

$36

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Annual R

ent G

row

th

Rent P

er

SF

Market Rent Year-Over-Year Rent Change

Base Case Rent Growth Forecast, by Market

|||

||

||

||

||

||||

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||

1.2%1.2%1.3%1.4%1.5%1.5%1.6%1.6%1.6%1.7%1.8%1.8%1.9%2.0%2.1%2.1%2.4%2.5%2.6%2.8%

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

San FranciscoColumbus

PortlandPhiladelphia

AustinMiami

DenverEast Bay

AtlantaLos AngelesMinneapolis

Dallas-Fort WorthIndianapolis

PhoenixSan Diego

SacramentoSeattle

CharlotteSan Jose

Tampa

Four-Year Average Forecast Rent Growth, YOYNote: Includes markets with 100M+ SF inventory.

||

||

||

||

||

||

||

|||

||

|

-0.0%0.2%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.7%0.8%1.0%1.0%1.0%1.2%1.2%1.2%1.3%1.4%1.5%1.5%

-2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

BostonBaltimore

Kansas CityDetroit

CincinnatiNorthern New Jersey

ClevelandPittsburghNew York

Orange CountyWashington

ChicagoSaint Louis

HoustonSan Francisco

ColumbusPortland

PhiladelphiaAustinMiami

Four-Year Average Forecast Rent Growth, YOYNote: Includes markets with 100M+ SF inventory.

4&5 Star Office Rent Growth: Base Case Forecast

Forecast

(12%)

(9%)

(6%)

(3%)

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

$30

$32

$34

$36

$38

$40

$42

$44

$46

$48

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Annual R

ent G

row

th

Rent P

er

SF

Market Rent Year-Over-Year Rent Change

Office Average Transaction Price

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Price p

er

SF

Transaction Price/SF

Office Market Price: Base Case

(20%)

(10%)

0%

10%

20%

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Annual P

rice G

row

th

Price p

er

SF

Year-Over-Year Change Transaction Price/SF Avg Price/SF

Office Cap Rates

National Office Cap Rate Forecast

Forecast

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

Average Cap Rate BBB Yield

Southwest Dallas National - LoopNet · 2019-12-05 · Sales Past 12 Months Southwest Dallas Office...

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