SOUTHERN NEVADA LABOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2015 & BEYOND · 2016-12-05 · SOUTHERN NEVADA LABOR MARKET...
26
SOUTHERN NEVADA LABOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2015 & BEYOND Presented at: SIM Labor Market Outlook January 22, 2015
Transcript of SOUTHERN NEVADA LABOR MARKET OUTLOOK 2015 & BEYOND · 2016-12-05 · SOUTHERN NEVADA LABOR MARKET...
SOUTHERN NEVADA LABOR MARKET OUTLOOK
2015 & BEYOND Presented at: SIM Labor Market Outlook January 22, 2015
WHERE WE’VE BEEN & WHERE WE ARE
2
3
Nevada job recovery from Great Recession after 90 months Nevada Recession Recoveries: 1948 - present
4
Tale of 2 Recessions: LV metro pretty unscathed in 2001, but collapsed during Great Recession
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Las VegasUSA
“
Las Vegas MSA Employment vs. US Employment (% Change): Jan-95 to Nov-14
5
Great Recession slammed brakes on population growth in Clark County, but starting to recover.
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%Las Vegas Las Vegas Lost Jobs USA
Clark County Population vs. US Population (% Change): 1981-2013
6
Perception: SoNV lags in projected economic strength among western metros (N: 1,400).
4.54 4.48
4.41 4.30
4.11 4.08
3.98 3.95
3.88 3.81
3.66 3.64 3.63
3.49 3.42
3.27 3.26 3.24
2.70 2.66
San FranciscoSeattle
San JoseDenver
Los AngelesOrange County
San DiegoOakland/East Bay
Portland, ORSalt Lake City
PhoenixInland Empire
HonoluluLas Vegas
BoiseSpokaneTacoma
SacramentoTucson
Albuquerque
2015 Strength of Economy Scores (Out of 5): Local Outlook: West Region
7
Mixed & generally good recovery, finally.
Population Change #10
Population Growth (%) #3
Employment Change #10
Employment Growth (%) #5
Real GMP* Change #33
Real GMP* Growth (%) #25
Rank Among 60 Largest US Metros: 2000-2013
8
Las Vegas skilled worker pool explodes after 2000.
MSA Bach. Degree+
Pop. Growth Rank Total Pop.
Growth Rank Charlotte, NC 102% 1 35% 5 Grand Rapids, MI 93% 2 9% 33 Las Vegas 91% 3 45% 3 Austin, TX 80% 4 49% 2 Raleigh, NC 79% 5 51% 1 Riverside, CA 74% 6 34% 8 Nashville, TN 72% 7 27% 12 Orlando, FL 66% 8 37% 4 San Antonio 66% 9 32% 9 Phoenix 63% 10 34% 6
Las Vegas MSA High-Skill Population Growth (% Change): 2000-2013
SONV’S STEM FUTURE
9
• “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”
-- John Kenneth Galbraith
10
What is EMSI & Why
Economic Modeling Specialists Intl.
Used by many local & state governments including in Nevada.
Does not suppress data.
Includes proprietors in order to create a complete picture of the regional workforce
Includes industries, occupations, job postings, demographics, wages, skills, education, training, companies, and more.
Available for all states, counties, and ZIP codes.
Updated four times a year.
Presented in a way that real people understand .
SONV STEM SECTORS: TODAY & TOMORROW
11
12 *Note: Does not include postsecondary teachers. Source: EMSI.
Top 5 STEM Sectors*, by Total Jobs: 2014
Today, Healthcare & Tech-Related jobs lead STEM in SoNv.
39,103
14,379
8,187
4,411 3,192
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
HealthcarePractitioners andTechnical Sector
Computer andMathematical Sector
Architecture andEngineering Sector
Life, Physical, andSocial Science Sector
Management Sector
13
Top 5 STEM Sectors, by Job Growth*: 2014-2020
Healthcare & Tech will continue leading SoNv STEM sector growth through 2020.
4,214
1,680
680
343 328
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
HealthcarePractitioners andTechnical Sector
Computer andMathematical Sector
Life, Physical, andSocial Science Sector
Management Sector Architecture andEngineering Sector
*Note: Does not include postsecondary teachers. Source: EMSI.
14
Top 5 STEM Sectors*, by % Growth: 2014-2020
Life, Physical & Social Science to grow fastest through 2020
15%
12% 11% 11%
4%
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
17%
Life, Physical, andSocial Science Sector
Computer andMathematical Sector
HealthcarePractitioners andTechnical Sector
Management Sector Architecture andEngineering Sector
*Note: Does not include postsecondary teachers. Source: EMSI.
SONV STEM OCCUPATIONS: TODAY & TOMORROW
15
16
Top 5 STEM Occupations*, by Total Jobs: 2014
Registered nurses dominated STEM jobs in 2014.
12,703
2,103 2,049 1,907 1,826
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Registered Nurses Computer SystemsAnalysts
Computer UserSupport Specialists
PharmacyTechnicians
Software Developers,Applications
*Note: Does not include postsecondary teachers. Source: EMSI.
17
Top 5 STEM Occupations* , by Job Growth: 2014-2020
Nurses will continue to lead STEM job growth, in number terms, through 2020
1,170
340 315 278 274
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Registered Nurses Clinical, Counseling,and School
Psychologists
Computer SystemsAnalysts
Licensed Practical andLicensed Vocational
Nurses
Software Developers,Applications
*Note: Does not include postsecondary teachers. Source: EMSI.
18
Top 5 STEM Occupations*, by % Growth: 2014-2020
Social Science/Research Assistants will be fasting growing through 2020
54%
41% 40%
37%
28%
23%
28%
33%
38%
43%
48%
53%
58%
Social ScienceResearch Assistants
PsychiatricTechnicians
Survey Researchers Audiologists Health Diagnosingand Treating
Practitioners, AllOther
*Note: Does not include postsecondary teachers. Source: EMSI.
GOED NEVADA SECTORS: THE 9 TARGET
19
20
Brookings Institute Draws 3 Conclusions on Nevada STEM Job Growth
Nevada must take steps to impact growth & keep up with STEM job demand.
Growth in Target STEM sectors beginning to outpace job supply Must meet demand for both blue collar & professional STEM jobs.
Significant challenges blocking Nevada’s path to cultivating STEM
workforce Lack of cohesive, forceful vision for STEM economy. Education & workforce training inconsistently aligned with needs. STEM proficiency crisis in school system.
Need for workforce development strategy to complement economic
development strategy – “the leading edge”
21
GOED Target Industries for Employment Growth in Nevada
Nevada’s 9 Target Sectors.
1. Aerospace & Defense 2. Agriculture
3. Business IT Ecosystems 4. Clean Energy
5. Health & Medical Services 6. Logistics & Operations
7. Manufacturing 8. Mining
9. Tourism, Gaming & Entertainment
22
STEM Occupations in Target Sectors in Las Vegas: 2014-2020
STEM jobs in “target sectors” expected to outperform overall STEM sectors.
*Note: Tourism, Gaming, & Entertainment jobs that may be STEM are included in more appropriate target sectors. Sources: EMSI, RCG Economics, BLS, GOED.
NV Target Industries 2014 STEM Jobs 2020 STEM Jobs % Change in Jobs: 2014-2020 Logistics and Operations 245 285 16.6% Aerospace and Defense 444 515 16.1% Business IT Ecosystems 9,863 11,026 11.8% Agriculture 15 17 11.6% Health and Medical Services 40,733 45,168 10.9% Manufacturing 2,513 2,760 9.8% Clean Energy 498 534 7.2% Mining 221 231 4.3% TOTAL STEM Targets 54,532 60,536 11.0% TOTAL STEM Jobs 70,271 77,676 10.5% Target STEM Jobs % of TOTAL STEM Jobs 77.6% 77.9% TOTAL Jobs 1,164,557 1,264,307 8.6% Target STEM Jobs % of TOTAL Jobs 4.7% 4.8%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
23
STEM Occupations in Target Sectors* in Las Vegas, by Percent Growth: 2014-2020
GOED efforts in STEM NV target industries should create faster than average growth.
*Note: Tourism, Gaming, & Entertainment jobs that may be STEM are included in more appropriate target sectors. Sources: EMSI, RCG Economics, BLS, GOED.
8.6% Total LV Growth Average
24
So the ride will be wild AND interesting.
25
Questions?
