Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas
-
Upload
deborah-mosley -
Category
Documents
-
view
26 -
download
3
description
Transcript of Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas
![Page 1: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major
Crops Areas
Update prepared byClimate Prediction Center / NCEP
11 April 2011
For Real-time information:
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/JAWF_Monitoring/
![Page 2: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Outline
•ENSO Current Status
•MJO Current Status
•Monsoons Current Status
•Southern Hemisphere Circulation
•Rainfall & Temperature Patterns
•NCEP/GFS Model Forecast
![Page 3: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
ENSO Current Status
For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
During the last 4-weeks (13 Mar – 9 Apr 2011), SSTs were generally 0.5°C or more below average between 160°E and 120°W, while above-average temperatures have emerged in small areas of the eastern Pacific.
General Summary:
• La Niña conditions continued across the equatorial Pacific.
• The magnitude of negative sea surface temperature anomalies continued to decrease across the Pacific Ocean.
• A transition to ENSO-neutral conditions is expected by June 2011.
![Page 4: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
MJO Current Status
The axes (RMM1 and RMM2) represent daily values of the principal components from the two leading modes
The triangular areas indicate the location of the enhanced phase of the MJO
Counter-clockwise motion is indicative of eastward propagation. Large dot most recent observation.
Distance from the origin is proportional to MJO strength
Line colors distinguish different months
MJO Index -- Recent Evolution Ensemble GFS (GEFS) MJO Forecast
RMM1 and RMM2 values for the most recent 40 days and forecasts from the ensemble Global Forecast System (GEFS) for the next 15 days
light gray shading: 90% of forecasts
dark gray shading: 50% of forecasts
Yellow Lines – 20 Individual Members
Green Line – Ensemble Mean
For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjo.shtml
The MJO signal began to weaken during the previous week, with no further eastward propagation.
The MJO signal is expected to remain incoherent during the upcoming week.
![Page 5: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Southern Hemisphere Monsoons Current Status
South America Southern Africa Australia
For more information go to: http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/
Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days
Monsoon Season: NOV-APR Monsoon Season: OCT-MAR
Monsoon Season: NOV-APR
Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days Rainfall Anomalies: Last 90 Days
![Page 6: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Southern Hemisphere Circulation200-hPa, 925-hPa Wind & Temperature Anomalies - Recent 7 days
Low-level (925 hPa or ~600 m) wind and temperature anomalies are based on the NCEP Climate Data Assimilation Systems (CDAS) analysis. The patterns of anomalous temperature and wind at 925-hPa are usually similar to surface observations.
Note: Areas with surface pressure below 925-hPa are masked out.
AC
![Page 7: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Southern Hemisphere Circulation
Rising motion (negative omega, yellow/red shading), usually associated with wetter-than-average conditions.
Sinking motion (positive omega, blue shading), usually associated with drier-than-average conditions.
Omega Anomalies and Total Precipitation - Recent 7 days
CPC daily gridded precipitation analysis over land only. The daily gauge analysis is created on a 0.5 degree lat/lon over the global land by interpolating gauge observations from ~30,000 stations.
![Page 8: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Australia
• Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns• Temperature Patterns• GFS Forecast
![Page 9: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days
Total Anomaly
![Page 10: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days
Total Anomaly
![Page 11: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days
Total Anomaly
![Page 12: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Temperature (°C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
![Page 13: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 11 Apr 2011 – Days 1-7
![Page 14: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 11 Apr 2011 – Days 8-14
![Page 15: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Southern Africa
• Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns• Temperature Patterns• GFS Forecast
![Page 16: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 7 Days
Total Anomaly
![Page 17: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 15 Days
Total Anomaly
![Page 18: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns: Last 30 Days
Total Anomaly
![Page 19: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days
![Page 20: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Temperature (C)Based on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
![Page 21: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 11 Apr 2011 – Days 1-7
![Page 22: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 11 Apr 2011 – Days 8-14
![Page 23: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Brazil & Argentina
• Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns• Temperature Patterns• GFS Forecast
![Page 24: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 7 Days
Total
Argentina
Brazil
Anomaly
![Page 25: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 15 Days
Total
Argentina
Brazil
Anomaly
![Page 26: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Rainfall Total & Anomaly Patterns:Last 30 Days
Total
Argentina
Brazil
Anomaly
![Page 27: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Recent Evolution: RainfallLast 30 Days
![Page 28: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Temperature (°C) - BrazilBased on GTS Stations (no QC)
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
![Page 29: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Extreme Minimum
Anomaly
Extreme Maximum Mean
Temperature (°C) - ArgentinaBased on GTS Stations (no QC)
![Page 30: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 11 Apr 2011 – Days 1-7
![Page 31: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
NCEP/GFS Precipitation Forecasts
Total Anomaly
Forecasts from 11 Apr 2011 – Days 8-14
![Page 32: Southern Hemisphere: Weather & Climate over Major Crops Areas](https://reader030.fdocuments.us/reader030/viewer/2022032805/5681329c550346895d993ae2/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
USDA Crop Information
Major World Crop Areas and Climate Profiles
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Other/MWCACP
Crop Calendars by Month
http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/CropCalendars