Southern California’s Ports and Goods Movement Industry 2015 · Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10...
Transcript of Southern California’s Ports and Goods Movement Industry 2015 · Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10...
Robert A. Kleinhenz, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC
Southern California’s Ports and Goods Movement Industry 2015
Keeping California Ports Competitive California Senate Informational Hearing May 8, 2015
Kyser Center for Economic Research
• U.S. & CA Economies
• Los Angeles County/So Cal Trade Trends
• Conclusion
Kyser Center for Economic Research
Outline
Kyser Center for Economic Research
U.S. & California Economies
-7.0% -6.0% -5.0% -4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
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US CA
California Adding Jobs Faster than U.S.
Source: US BLS, CA EDD Kyser Center for Economic Research
YTY % change in nonfarm jobs, seasonally adjusted
5.5%
6.5%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
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U.S. CA
Labor Mkts in US & CA Nearly Healed
Source: US BLS, CA EDD Kyser Center for Economic Research
Unemployment Rate
Forecast Source: LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
U.S. Economic Forecast
2012 2013 2014 2015f 2016fReal GDP - Annual
% Chg. 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 3.0% 3.0%
Nonfarm Jobs - Annual % Chg. 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%
Unemployment Rate 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.6% 5.4%
Consumer Prices - Annual % Chg. 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 1.3% 2.3%
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Total U.S. Goods Trade
18.8%
23.4%
18.4%
24.1% 23.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Exports (left axis) Imports (left axis) Trade % of GDP (right axis)
Source: BEA
Exports, Imports of Goods $ in Trillions
Goods Trade as % of GDP
Los Angeles County Goods Movement/Trade
Trends
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Major Industries in Los Angeles County
TRADED INDUSTRIES (Generate New Income) • International Trade • Entertainment • Business Services • Aerospace • Fashion & Apparel • Tourism • Knowledge Creation
LOCAL INDUSTRIES (Circulate Income)
• Retail Sales • Leisure & Hospitality • Health Care/Social
Assistance
Kyser Center for Economic Research
Kyser Center for Economic Research
Job Trends by Industry – Los Angeles
-1.0% -0.8%
0.4% 1.0%
1.7% 1.9%
2.6% 2.8% 2.9%
4.1% 4.2%
4.5% 5.9%
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Manufacturing Financial Activities
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Administrative & Support & Waste Services
Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Leisure & Hospitality
Health Care & Social Assistance Information
Government Educational Services
Retail Trade Wholesale Trade
Construction
YTY % change in nonfarm employment by industry, not seasonally adjusted
Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
Feb 2015: +101,100 jobs, +2.4% YTY; u-rate: 7.7%
11.8 13.1
14.2 15.8 15.7
14.3
11.8
14.1 14.0 14.1 14.6 15.2
2003
2004
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2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Millions of TEUs
Container Throughput San Pedro Bay Ports
Sources: Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach; forecast by LAEDC Kyser Center for Economic Research
Mar 2015 YTD: -4.3%
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0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
New York Los Angeles Long Beach Savannah Oakland
International Container Traffic at Nation’s Major Ports
Millions of TEUs
Source: Port Statistical Releases
44.5% 44.6% 44.1% 45.6%
44.8%
42.8% 41.0%
42.6% 41.8% 42.7% 42.1% 41.8%
30%
32%
34%
36%
38%
40%
42%
44%
46%
48%
50%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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San Pedro Ports Dominate Top 10
Source: Port Statistical Releases, Compiled by LAEDC
POLA/POLB Containers as a Share of Top Ten Total
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L.A. County Trans/Warehousing & Wholesale Employment
40,000
90,000
140,000
190,000
240,000
290,000
340,000
390,000
440,000
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Jul-0
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Jul-0
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Mar 2015 YTY: Trans/Warehousing +4,300 jobs, +2.9% Wholesaling +6,300 jobs, +2.8%
Source: CA EDD, Labor Market Information Division
Kyser Center for Economic Research
62.0% 59.9% 58.6%
18.5% 18.1% 16.5%
16.6% 19.2%
22.1% 2.9% 2.9%
2.8%
0
100
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800
2004 2009 2014
Los Angeles County Orange County Inland Empire Ventura County
Trade-related Employment with employment shares by county
Source: California EDD, LMID
Employment, thousands
Kyser Center for Economic Research
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Los Angeles New York Laredo Detroit Houston illions USD
Value of International Trade at Nation’s Leading Customs Districts
B
Source: U.S. Dept. of Commerce, U.S. Bureau of the Census
LACD Top 5 Import Sources, 2014
Source: USA Trade Online – *China includes Hong Kong Kyser Center for Economic Research
$140.8
$25.7 $12.9 $11.1 $9.5
China* Japan South Korea Vietnam Taiwan
Billions of U.S.$
LACD Top 5 Export Destinations, 2014
Source: USA Trade Online -- *China includes Hong Kong Kyser Center for Economic Research
$35.3
$14.7
$10.9 $8.5 $7.5 $7.5
China* Japan South Korea Hong Kong Taiwan Australia
Billions of U.S.$
Computers & Electronics (Computers and Semiconductors)
Transportation Equipment (Autos and Auto Parts)
Apparel (Women’s Clothing)
Miscellaneous Manufacturing (Toys, Jewelry and Medical Equipment)
Electrical Equipment (Appliances)
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LACD Top Imports Ranked by Value, 2014
Source: USA Trade Online
Computers & Electronics (Measuring Instruments and Semiconductors)
Transportation Equipment (Aerospace Products – Aircraft Engines and Parts)
Chemicals (Organic & Inorganic and Resins)
Machinery (Ag & Construction related and Pumps)
Food (Meat – Frozen Beef)
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LACD Top Exports Ranked by Value, 2014
Source: USA Trade Online
Conc lus ion
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Challenges & Opportunities
CHALLENGES
• Port Competition
• Freeway Congestion
• Limited Industrial Space
• Labor-Automation Tradeoff
• Port-Related Pollution
OPPORTUNTIES
Big Ship Ready, Efficient
Alameda Corridor
Think Regional – IE
Answer?
Global Leaders in Adoption of Pollution Mitigation Efforts & Technology
Growth of Trade – US & Global!!!
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THANK YOU!
Append ix
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Kyser Center for Economic Research
Los Angeles County - Gateway to America’s Largest Consumer Market
California
Population: 37.7 Million
Southern California
Los Angeles Metro Area +
San Diego County
Population: 21.2 Million
* If LA County were a state, it would be larger than 43 other states in US.
Source: CA Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit
Los Angeles Metropolitan Area • Los Angeles County* • Orange County • Riverside County • San Bernardino County • Ventura County
Population: 18.06 Million
$176.1
$40.4 $23.8 $17.0 $12.9 $11.3 $10.5 $10.0 $9.6 $9.3 $8.0
0
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*China includes the Mainland, Hong Kong and Macau Source: USA Trade Online
2014 LACD Top Trading Partners
Billions of $
Kyser Center for Economic Research
Kyser Center for Economic Research
2014 Imports Entering the L.A.C.D. (Share of Total)
Computers, Peripherals, Machinery, Appliances,
Parts, 18.7%
Electrical Equipment, TVs, Electronic Parts,
17.6%
Motor Vehicles, Parts, 9.0%
Refined Oil Products, Natural Gas, 5.2%
Apparel, Accessories (Knit or Crochet), 4.8%
Furniture, Bedding, Lamps, 4.0%
Footwear, Parts, 3.9%
Apparel, Accessories, (Not Knit or Crochet),
3.6%
Toys, Games, Sports Equipment, 3.1%
Plastics, Plastic Items, 2.7%
Other, 27.4% Total Imports: $379.8 Bn
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
Kyser Center for Economic Research
Computers, Peripherals, Machinery, Appliances,
Parts, 13.3%
Electrical Equipment, TVs, Elecontric Parts,
11.1%
Aircraft, Spacecraft, Parts, 7.9%
Medical, Surgical, Dental Instruments,
6.8%
Natural Pearls, Precious Stones, Metals, 6.4%
Motor Vehicles, Parts, 5.5%
Plastics, Items Made of Plastic, 4.9%
Meat and Meat Products, 2.7%
Miscellaneous Chemical Products, 2.6%
Fruits and Nuts, 2.3%
Other, 36.5%
Total Exports: $128.2 Bn
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census
2014 Exports Through The L.A.C.D. (Share of Total)
Transportation equipment (aircraft products/parts)
Royalties (from film and music)
Petroleum Products
Precision Instruments
Semiconductors
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Los Angeles Metro Area Exports Ranked by Value, 2012
Source: Brookings Institution Export Nation