South & South East Asian Region - Custom...

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Issued: 11th January 2019

Valid Period: February - July 2019

South & South East Asian Region: Indonesia – Clove Regions

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A] Current conditions: 1] El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Watch El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere spring (autumn) 2019 (~65% chance). ENSO-neutral continued during December 2018, despite widespread above-average sea surface temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The atmospheric anomalies largely reflected intra-seasonal variability related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and have not yet shown a clear coupling to the above-average ocean temperatures. Equatorial convection was generally enhanced west of the Date Line and suppressed east of the Date Line, while anomalies were weak or near average over Indonesia. Low-level winds were near average, while upper-level wind anomalies were westerly over the eastern Pacific. Despite the above-average ocean temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean, the overall coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect ENSO-neutral.

Figure 1a: ENSO Probabilities. (Courtesy: The International Research Institute for Climate and Society).

Figure 1a shows that there is a now a 74% chance of El Niño conditions occurring during the February-March-April season and an 26% chance that neutral conditions will occur.

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There remains a 45% chance of neutral conditions persisting during the May-June-July season, while the chances of El Niño remain around 52%. The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Niño3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater to continue through at least the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere spring (autumn) 2019. Regardless of the above-average SSTs, the atmospheric circulation over the tropical Pacific has not yet shown clear evidence of coupling to the ocean. The late winter (summer) and early spring (autumn) tend to be the most favorable months for coupling, so forecasters still believe weak El Niño conditions will emerge shortly. However, given the timing and that a weak event is favored, significant global impacts are not anticipated during the remainder of winter (summer), even if conditions were to form.

In summary, El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere spring (autumn) 2019 (~65% chance).

Local Effects of El Niño.

Figures 1b and 1c show the global effects of El Niño (ENSO warm episode). In general, during El Niño events, conditions become warmer and drier over much of Indonesia. Statistical research shows that the strongest connections between El Niño and all of Indonesia occur during the August-September-October period, with much below average rainfall occurring. However, the effects are still strong over much of Indonesia from the May-June-July period waning during the February-March-April period. With the strengthening of the current El Niño underway, the greatest effects are currently occurring (February-March-April period this year when the chances of an El Niño occurring are at 74%).

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Figure 1b: Global effects of El Nino (ENSO warm episode) during the June-August period. (Courtesy: CPC).

Figure 1c: Global effects of El Nino (ENSO warm episode) during the June-August period. (Courtesy: CPC).

Local Effects of La Niña.

Figures 2b and 2c show the global effects of La Niña (ENSO cold episode). In general, during La Niña events, conditions become cooler and wetter over much of Indonesia. Statistical research shows that the strongest connections between La Niña and all of Indonesia occur during the August-September-November period, with much above average rainfall occurring. However, the effects are still strong over much of Indonesia from the May-June-July period waning during the February-March-April period. Currently there is zero chance of La Niña occurring.

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Figure 2b: Global effects of La Niña (ENSO cold episode) during the June-August period. (Courtesy: CPC).

Figure 2c: Global effects of La Niña (ENSO cold episode) during the June-August period. (Courtesy: CPC).

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Note:

El Niño or La Niña Watch: Issued when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño or La Niña conditions within the next six months.

El Niño or La Niña Advisory: Issued when El Niño or La Niña conditions are observed and expected to continue. The Climate Prediction Center defines"El Niño conditions" as existing when: A one-month positive sea surface temperature anomaly of 0.5°C or greater is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W) and an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met ANDAn atmospheric response typically associated with El Niño is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

The Climate Prediction Center defines"La Niña conditions" as existing when: A one-month positive sea surface temperature anomaly of -0.5°C or less is observed in the Niño-3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W) and an expectation that the 3-month Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) threshold will be met ANDan atmospheric response typically associated with La Niña is observed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

2] Rainfall

2a] Java, Bali and Sumba

Observed rainfall For December over the Java growing regions was moderate (111mm to 441mm). The East Java growing regions recorded the highest falls of around 441mm (Sugihwaras) and the lowest falls of around 111mm also in East Java (Banyuwangi). Bali (Buleleng) measured around 103mm. Rainfall was varied in Sumba, with rainfall varying from 102mm in Walatungga to 127mm in Tanarara (Figure 2a). Figure 2b shows the surpluses/deficits for December. Generally, locations in the East Java growing region received the highest rainfall deficits (about -273mm or 45% of average in Lumajang). Many locations observed rainfall surpluses (the highest being +323mm over Purwodadi). Sumba had deficits ranging from -204mm or 38% of average (Tanarara) to -30mm or 80% of average (Watumbaka). Bali (Buleleng) measured a small deficit of 103mm or 49% of average.

Figures 2c and 2d show the rainfall and rainfall surpluses/deficits for the 180-day period from 01 July 2018 to 31 December 2018. All three Java growing regions received between 200mm and 1500mm (25% to 110% of average – highest in Central Java, lowest in the far eastern areas of East Java). The Bali growing region received between 0mm and 200mm (25% and 50% of normal rainfall) and the Sumba growing region received between 300mm and 100mm (25% and 75% of normal rainfall). Figure 2d shows that in general,

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the western areas of Central Java had the greatest deficits of up to 600mm, while the remaining parts of Java had deficits of up to 400mm. East and West Java growing regions received below average rainfall (between 200mm and 400mm deficits), while Central Java also received anywhere from near normal rainfall to below average rainfall (between 0mm and 400mm deficits) over the last 6 months. Sumba had near normal rainfall to deficits of between 50mm and 200mm while Bali had deficits of between 200mm and 400mm over the last 6 months. No location had days with daily rainfall exceeding 75mm in the last 6 months. No location received more than 150mm on any given day in the last 6 months.

Figure 2a: 30-Day rainfall for 01 December – 31 December 2018.

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Figure 2b: 30-Day rainfall surplus/deficit for 01 December – 31 December 2018.

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Figure 2c: 180-Day rainfall for 01 July 2018 – 31 December 2018.

Figure 2d: 180-Day rainfall surplus/deficit for 01 July 2018 – 31 December 2018.

2b] Sulawesi

Observed rainfall For December was mostly light to moderate over all three Sulawesi growing regions with the lowest recorded rainfall of 93mm in Bulukumba in South Sulawesi and the highest rainfall recorded was 238mm in the Kolaka Utara area of South Sulawesi. (Figure 2e). Figure 2f shows the surpluses/deficits for November. In general, deficits were observed over all three regions, including small deficits of 1mm (99% of normal) over Donggala in Central Sulawesi to larger deficits of 120mm (62% of normal) over Luwu in the northern areas of South Sulawesi. The largest deficits occurred in Luwu (-120mm or 62% of average) in South Sulawesi.

Figures 2g and 2h show the rainfall and rainfall surpluses/deficits for the 180-day period from 01 July 2018 to 31 December 2018. Generally lighter falls occurred over all three Sulawesi growing regions (500mm to 1000mm or about 50% to 90% of average). Over far South Sulawesi, generally between 300mm and 500mm was observed (50% to 75%). Figure 2h shows that in general that all three Sulawesi growing regions received rainfall deficits. Near normal rainfall was observed over the Kolaka Utura region, while parts of all three Sulawesi growing regions recorded larger deficits (up to 400mm).

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Figure 2e: 30-Day rainfall for 01 December – 31 December 2018.

Figure 2f: 30-Day rainfall surplus/deficit for 01 December – 31 December 2018.

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Figure 2g: 180-Day rainfall for 01 July 2018 – 31 December 2018.

Figure 2h: 180-Day rainfall surplus/deficit for 01 July 2018 – 31 December 2018.

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2c] Bintan

In general, rainfall over the Bintan growing region was moderate receiving amounts of around 103mm in the Senggiling area during November. (Figure 2i). Figure 2j shows the surpluses/deficits for the last 30 days. In general, deficits were observed in the Bintan growing region (-170mm or 45% of normal in Senggiling).

Figures 2k and 2l show the rainfall and rainfall surpluses/deficits for the 180-day period from 01 July 2018 to 31 December 2018. Generally moderate falls occurred over the Bintan growing region (1000mm to 1500mm or about 75% to 90% of average). Figure 2l shows that in general the Bintan growing region received average to below average rainfall during the 6-month period 01 July 2018 to 31 December 2018 with deficits of 200mm to about 400mm in the Senggiling region.

Figure 2i: 30-Day rainfall for 01 December – 31 December 2018.

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Figure 2j: 30-Day rainfall surplus/deficit for 01 December – 31 December 2018.

Figure 2k: 180-Day rainfall for 01 July 2018 – 31 December 2018.

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Figure 2l: 180-Day rainfall surplus/deficit for 01 July 2018 – 31 December 2018.

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3] Temperature

Figure 3 shows the mean temperature and departures from normal for the period 31/12/18 - 06/01/19. Almost all growing regions recorded above average temperatures of +1°C to +3°C, while parts of far eastern East Java and Central Sulawesi observed above average temperatures of up to +5°C. The far western parts of West Java recorded mostly average temperatures. Growing regions in Bali and Suma recorded above average temperatures of +1°C to +3°C.

Figure 3: (Left) Mean Temperature for the period 31/12/18 - 06/01/19 and (right)

departure from WMO normal.

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4] Soil Moisture

Figure 4 shows the soil moisture percentage for 30/12/18. Soil moistures values were highest over West Java with values >70%. Lowest values were observed over parts of the Central and East Java, Bali, Sumbawa and Sumba growing regions with values of between 0% and 40%, while slightly higher over Central and North Sulawesi with values between 30% and 70%.

Figure 4: WMO Percent Soil Moisture for 30/12/18.

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B] Expected conditions:

BINTAN:

FEBRUARY 2019: Average rainfall should occur over the Senggiling region (-50mm to +50mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Senggiling region (+0.5°C and +1.0°C).

MARCH 2019: Below average rainfall should occur over the Senggiling region (-50mm to -100mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Senggiling region (+1.0°C and +1.5°C).

APRIL 2019: Below average rainfall should occur over the Senggiling region (-50mm to -100mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Senggiling region (+0.5°C and +1.0°C).

MAY 2019: Average to slightly above average rainfall should occur over the Senggiling region (0mm to +50mm). Average temperatures can be expected over the Senggiling region (-0.5°C and +0.5°C).

JUNE 2019: Above average rainfall should occur over the Senggiling region (+50mm to +100mm). Average temperatures can be expected over the Senggiling region (-0.5°C and +0.5°C).

JULY 2019: Average to slightly above average rainfall should occur over the Senggiling region (0mm to +50mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Senggiling region (+0.5°C and +1.0°C).

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RAINFALL FORECAST: BINTAN

Figure 8A: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version 2) rainfall forecast (mm) for the months of Feb - Jul 2019 (based on the forecast on 10 January 2019).

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RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL: BINTAN

Figure 8B: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version 2) rainfall departures (mm) for the months of Feb - Jul 2019 (based on the forecast on 10 January 2019). Anomalies are computed with respect to the 1982-2010 base period monthly means.

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MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECAST: BINTAN

Figure 12A: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version2) average 2-meter temperature forecast (°C) for the months of Feb - Jul 2019 (based on the forecast on 10 January 2019).

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MEAN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE: BINTAN

Figure 12B: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version2) average 2-meter temperature departures (°C) for the months of Feb - Jul 2019 (based on the forecast on 10 January 2019). Anomalies are computed with respect to the 1982-2010 base period monthly means.

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WEST JAVA:

FEBRUARY 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Lebak region (-200mm to -250mm) and average over the Sukabumi region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Sukabumi region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C) and above average over the Lebak region (+0.5°C to +1.0°C).

MARCH 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Lebak region (-100mm to -150mm) and below average over the Sukabumi region (-50mm to -100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Sukabumi region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C) and above average over the Lebak region (+0.5°C to +1.0°C).

APRIL 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Lebak region (-50mm to -100mm) and average over the Sukabumi region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Sukabumi region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C) and average over the Lebak region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C).

MAY 2019: Average to slightly below average rainfall is expected over the Lebak region (0mm to -50mm) and average over the Sukabumi region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Sukabumi region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C) and average over the Lebak region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C).

JUNE 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Lebak region (-50mm to -100mm) and average to slightly below average over the Sukabumi region (0mm to -50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Sukabumi region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C) and average over the Lebak region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C).

JULY 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Lebak region (-50mm to -100mm) and below average over the Sukabumi region (-50mm to -100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Sukabumi region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C) and average over the Lebak region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C).

CENTRAL JAVA:

FEBRUARY 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Pemalang region (-150mm to -200mm) and average over the Wonogiri-Jatisrono region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Pemalang region (+1.5°C to +2.0°C) and average over the Wonogiri-Jatisrono region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C).

MARCH 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Pemalang region (-100mm to -150mm) and average to slightly above average over the Wonogiri-Jatisrono region (0mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Pemalang region (+1.0°C to +1.5°C) and average over the Wonogiri-Jatisrono region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C).

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APRIL 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Pemalang region (-50mm to -100mm) and above average over the Wonogiri-Jatisrono region (+50mm to +100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Pemalang region (+1.0°C to +1.5°C) and average over the Wonogiri-Jatisrono region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C).

MAY 2019: Average rainfall is expected over the Pemalang region (-50mm to +50mm) and above average over the Wonogiri-Jatisrono region (+100mm to +150mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Pemalang region (+1.0°C to +1.5°C) and average over the Wonogiri-Jatisrono region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C).

JUNE 2019: Average to slightly below average rainfall is expected over the Pemalang region (0mm to -50mm) and average over the Wonogiri-Jatisrono region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Pemalang region (+1.5°C to +2.0°C) and average over the Wonogiri-Jatisrono region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C).

JULY 2019: Average to slightly below average rainfall is expected over the Pemalang region (0mm to -50mm) and average over the Wonogiri-Jatisrono region (-50mm to +50mm Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Pemalang region (+1.5°C to +2.0°C) and average over the Wonogiri-Jatisrono region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C).

EAST JAVA:

FEBRUARY 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Malang region (-100mm to -150mm); average rainfall over the Pacitan region (-50mm to +50mm) and average rainfall over the Trenggalek region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Pacitan and Trenggalek regions (-0.5°C to +0.5°C) and above average over the Malang region (+1.5°C to +2.0°C).

MARCH 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Malang region (-100mm to -150mm); average to slightly above average rainfall over the Pacitan region (0mm to +50mm) and average rainfall over the Trenggalek region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Pacitan and Trenggalek regions (-0.5°C to +0.5°C) and above average over the Malang region (+1.5°C to +2.0°C).

APRIL 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Malang region (-50mm to -100mm); above average rainfall over the Pacitan region (+50mm to +100mm) and average to slightly above average rainfall over the Trenggalek region (0mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Pacitan and Trenggalek regions (-0.5°C to +0.5°C) and above average over the Malang region (+1.0°C to +1.5°C).

MAY 2019: Average rainfall is expected over the Malang region (-50mm to +50mm); above average rainfall over the Pacitan region (+50mm to +100mm) and above rainfall over the Trenggalek region (+50mm to +100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be below

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average over the Pacitan and Trenggalek regions (-0.5°C to -1.0°C) and above average over the Malang region (+1.0°C to +1.5°C).

JUNE 2019: Average to slightly below average rainfall is expected over the Malang region (0mm to -50mm); average rainfall over the Pacitan region (-50mm to +50mm) and above average to slightly above average rainfall over the Trenggalek region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Pacitan and Trenggalek regions (-0.5°C to +0.5°C) and above average over the Malang region (+1.0°C to +1.5°C).

JULY 2019: Average rainfall is expected over the Malang region (-50mm to +50mm); average rainfall over the Pacitan region (-50mm to +50mm) and above average to slightly above average rainfall over the Trenggalek region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be average over the Pacitan and Trenggalek regions (-0.5°C to +0.5°C) and above average over the Malang region (+1.0°C to +1.5°C).

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RAINFALL FORECAST: JAVA, INDONESIA


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RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL: JAVA, INDONESIA


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MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECAST: JAVA, INDONESIA

Figure 10A: 30-Day running mean monthly Climate Forecast System (CFS Version2) average 2-meter temperature forecast (°C) for the months of Feb - Jul 2019(based on the forecast on 10 January 2019).

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MEAN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE: JAVA, INDONESIA


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NORTH SULAWESI:

FEBRUARY 2019: Average to slightly below average rainfall is expected over the Bol Mong Timur region (0mm to -50mm); above average over the Minahasa region (+100mm to +150mm) and above average over the Minahasa Selatan-Maesaan region (+150mm to +200mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Bol Mong Timur region (+4.5°C to +5.0°C); above average over Minahasa (+1.5°C to +2.0°C) and above average over the Minahasa Selatan-Maesaan region (+1.0°C to +1.5°C).

MARCH 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Bol Mong Timur region (-50mm to -100mm); above average over the Minahasa region (+100mm to +150mm) and above average over the Minahasa Selatan-Maesaan region (+150mm to +200mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Bol Mong Timur region (+4.5°C to +5.0°C); above average over Minahasa (+1.5°C to +2.0°C) and above average over the Minahasa Selatan-Maesaan region (+1.0°C to +1.5°C).

APRIL 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Bol Mong Timur region (-100mm to -150mm); above average over the Minahasa region (+100mm to +150mm) and above average over the Minahasa Selatan-Maesaan region (+150mm to +200mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Bol Mong Timur region (+4.5°C to +5.0°C); above average over Minahasa (+1.0°C to +1.5°C) and above average over the Minahasa Selatan-Maesaan region (+0.5°C to +1.0°C).

MAY 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Bol Mong Timur region (-100mm to -150mm); above average over the Minahasa region (+100mm to +150mm) and above average over the Minahasa Selatan-Maesaan region (+100mm to +150mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Bol Mong Timur region (+4.5°C to +5.0°C); above average over Minahasa (+1.0°C to +1.5°C) and average over the Minahasa Selatan-Maesaan region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C).

JUNE 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Bol Mong Timur region (-150mm to -200mm); average over the Minahasa region (-50mm to +50mm) and average over the Minahasa Selatan-Maesaan region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Bol Mong Timur region (+5.0°C to +5.0°C); above average over Minahasa (+1.0°C to +1.5°C) and above average over the Minahasa Selatan-Maesaan region (+0.5°C to +1.0°C).

JULY 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Bol Mong Timur region (-150mm to -200mm); above average over the Minahasa region (+50mm to +100mm) and below average over the Minahasa Selatan-Maesaan region (-50mm to -100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Bol Mong Timur region (+5.0°C to +5.0°C); above average over Minahasa (+1.0°C to +1.5°C) and average over the Minahasa Selatan-Maesaan region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C).

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CENTRAL SULAWESI:

FEBRUARY 2019: Above average rainfall is expected over the Donggala region (+100mm to +150mm) and above average rainfall is expected over Toli-Toli region (+50mm to +100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Donggala region (+1.0°C to +1.5°C) and over the Toli-Toli region (+2.0°C to +2.5°C).

MARCH 2019: Above average rainfall is expected over the Donggala region (+50mm to +1-0mm) and average rainfall is expected over Toli-Toli region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Donggala region (+1.0°C to +1.5°C) and over the Toli-Toli region (+2.0°C to +2.5°C).

APRIL 2019: Average to slightly above average rainfall is expected over the Donggala region (-50mm to +50mm) and average rainfall is expected over Toli-Toli region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Donggala region (+1.0°C to +1.5°C) and over the Toli-Toli region (+2.0°C to +2.5°C).

MAY 2019: Average rainfall is expected over the Donggala region (-50mm to +50mm) and average rainfall is expected over Toli-Toli region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Donggala region (+1.0°C to +1.5°C) and over the Toli-Toli region (+2.0°C to +2.5°C).

JUNE 2019: Average to slightly above average rainfall is expected over the Donggala region (-50mm to +50mm) and average rainfall is expected over Toli-Toli region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Donggala region (+1.5°C to +2.0°C) and over the Toli-Toli region (+2.5°C to +3.0°C).

JULY 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Donggala region (-50mm to -100mm) and below average rainfall is expected over Toli-Toli region (-50mm to -100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Donggala region (+1.5°C to +2.0°C) and over the Toli-Toli region (+2.5°C to +3.0°C).

SOUTH SULAWESI:

FEBRUARY 2019: Average rainfall is expected over the Bone region (-50mm to +50mm); average rainfall over the Bulukumba region (-50mm to +50mm); average to slightly below average rainfall over Kolaka Utara (0mm to -50mm) and above average over the Luwu region (+100mm to +150mm). Temperatures are forecast to be below average over the Bone region (-0.5°C to -1.0°C); above average over the Bulukumba and Kolaka Utara regions (+0.5°C to +1.0°C) and average over Luwu region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C).

MARCH 2019: Average to slightly above average rainfall is expected over the Bone region (+50mm to +100mm); above average rainfall over the Bulukumba region (+50mm to +100mm); below average rainfall over Kolaka Utara (-50mm to -100mm) and average

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over the Luwu region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be below average over the Bone region (-0.5°C to -1.0°C); above average over the Bulukumba and Kolaka Utara regions (+0.5°C to +1.0°C) and average over Luwu region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C).

APRIL 2019: Average to slightly above average rainfall is expected over the Bone region (+50mm to +100mm); above average rainfall over the Bulukumba region (+50mm to +100mm); below average rainfall over Kolaka Utara (-50mm to -100mm) and average over the Luwu region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be below average over the Bone region (-0.5°C to -1.0°C); above average over the Bulukumba and Kolaka Utara regions (+0.5°C to +1.0°C) and average over Luwu region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C).

MAY 2019: Average rainfall is expected over the Bone region (-50mm to +50mm); average rainfall over the Bulukumba region (-50mm to +50mm); below average rainfall over Kolaka Utara (-100mm to -150mm) and below average over the Luwu region (-50mm to -100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be below average over the Bone region (-0.5°C to -1.0°C); above average over the Bulukumba and Kolaka Utara regions (+0.5°C to +1.0°C) and average over Luwu region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C).

JUNE 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Bone region (-200mm to -250mm); below average rainfall over the Bulukumba region (-200mm to -250mm); below average rainfall over Kolaka Utara (-150mm to -200mm) and below average over the Luwu region (-200mm to -250mm). Temperatures are forecast to be below average over the Bone region (-0.5°C to -1.0°C); average over the Bulukumba region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C). and above average over the Luwu and Kolaka Utara regions (+1.0°C to +2.0°C).

JULY 2019: Below average rainfall is expected over the Bone region (-150mm to -200mm); below average rainfall over the Bulukumba region (-100mm to -150mm); below average rainfall over Kolaka Utara (-100mm to -150mm) and below average over the Luwu region (-150mm to -200mm). Temperatures are forecast to be below average over the Bone region (-1.0°C to -1.5°C); average over the Bulukumba region (-0.5°C to +0.5°C). and above average over the Luwu and Kolaka Utara regions (+1.5°C to +3.0°C).

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RAINFALL FORECAST: SULAWESI, INDONESIA


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RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL: SULAWESI, INDONESIA


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MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECAST: SULAWESI, INDONESIA


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MEAN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE: SULAWESI, INDONESIA


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BALI:

FEBRUARY 2019: Below rainfall should occur over the Buleleleng region (-100mm to -150mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Buleleleng region (+3.0°C to +3.5°C).

MARCH 2019: Below rainfall should occur over the Buleleleng region (-50mm to -100mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Buleleleng region (+2.5°C to +3.0°C).

APRIL 2019: Average rainfall should occur over the Buleleleng region (-50mm to +50mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Buleleleng region (+2.5°C to +3.0°C).

MAY 2019: Average to slightly below average rainfall should occur over the Buleleleng region (0mm to -50mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Buleleleng region (+2.0°C to +2.5°C).

JUNE 2019: Average rainfall should occur over the Buleleleng region (-50mm to +50mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Buleleleng region (+2.5°C to +3.0°C).

JULY 2019: Average rainfall should occur over the Buleleleng region (-50mm to +50mm). Above average temperatures can be expected over the Buleleleng region (+2.5°C to +3.0°C).

SUMBA:

FEBRUARY 2019: Average to slightly below average rainfall is expected over the Tanarara region (0mm to -50mm); below average over the Walatungga region (-50mm to -100mm) and below average over the Watumbaka growing region (-50mm to -100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Tanarara region (+1.5°C to +2.0°C); above average over the Walatungga region (+2.5°C to +3.0°C) and above average over the Watumbaka region (+2.5°C to +3.0°C).

MARCH 2019: Above average rainfall is expected over the Tanarara region (+50mm to +100mm average over the Walatungga region (-50mm to +50mm) and average over the Watumbaka growing region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Tanarara region (+1.0°C to +1.5°C); above average over the Walatungga region (+2.5°C to +3.0°C) and above average over the Watumbaka region (+2.5°C to +3.0°C).

APRIL 2019: Above average rainfall is expected over the Tanarara region (+50mm to +100mm); average over the Walatungga region (-50mm to +50mm) and average to

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slightly above average over the Watumbaka growing region (0mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Tanarara region (+1.0°C to +1.5°C); above average over the Walatungga region (+2.0°C to +2.5°C) and above average over the Watumbaka region (+2.0°C to +2.5°C).

MAY 2019: Above average rainfall is expected over the Tanarara region (+50mm to +100mm); average to slightly above average over the Walatungga region (0mm to +50mm) and above average over the Watumbaka growing region (+50mm to +100mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Tanarara region (+1.0°C to +1.5°C); above average over the Walatungga region (+2.0°C to +2.5°C) and above average over the Watumbaka region (+2.0°C to +2.5°C).

JUNE 2019: Average rainfall is expected over the Tanarara region (-50mm to +50mm); average over the Walatungga region (-50mm to +50mm) and average over the Watumbaka growing region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Tanarara region (+1.0°C to +1.5°C); above average over the Walatungga region (+2.0°C to +2.5°C) and above average over the Watumbaka region (+2.0°C to +2.5°C).

JULY 2019: Average rainfall is expected over the Tanarara region (-50mm to +50mm); average over the Walatungga region (-50mm to +50mm) and average over the Watumbaka growing region (-50mm to +50mm). Temperatures are forecast to be above average over the Tanarara region (+0.5°C to +1.0°C); above average over the Walatungga region (+1.5°C to +2.0°C) and above average over the Watumbaka region (+1.5°C to +2.0°C).

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RAINFALL FORECAST: EASTERN INDONESIA


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RAINFALL DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL: EASTERN INDONESIA


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MEAN TEMPERATURE FORECAST: EASTERN INDONESIA


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MEAN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE: EASTERN INDONESIA


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SUMMARY: FEBRUARY - JULY 2019

The impending weak El Niño is making its impact felt on the current forecast with continuing drier and warmer conditions than normal over the majority of regions through February with the exception of North and Central Sulawesi, where it will be generally wetter than normal. Mostly below average rainfall should be expected over Bintan and Bali until March, but Sumba, which will also start the forecast period with mostly below average rainfall during February but recovering to mostly average conditions thereafter. Temperatures will above average over the entire forecast period over most locations in the North and Central Sulawesi, Sumba and the Bali growing regions. Generally average temperatures to below average temperatures over the southern South Sulawesi and Java growing regions, except for Malang, where temperatures will mainly be above average or average.

Bintan: Mostly below average rainfall until April, when rainfall may be slightly above average thereafter. Above average temperatures over Senggiling until May, when temperatures should be average again.

West Java: Below average rainfall should be expected over Lebak for most of the forecast period and in Sukabumi during February and again in June and July. Average temperatures over Lebak during most the forecast period, with slightly above average temperatures expected in February and March and average over Sukabumi during the entire forecast period.

Central Java: Mostly average to above average rainfall should be expected over the Wonogiri-Jatisrono region during the forecast period, but average rainfall should be expected in February and again in June and July. Below average rainfall should be expected over Pemalang from February through April, with a respite in May from the drier than average conditions, but average to slightly below average again during June and July. Temperatures will be above average over the Pemalang region during the entire forecast period, while average over the Wonogiri-Jatisrono region during the entire forecast period.

East Java. Malang should expect mostly below average rainfall from February through April. Pacitan and Trenggalek can expect mostly average to above average rainfall during the forecast period. The entire period should experience above average temperatures over the southern parts (+0.5°C to +2.0°C), while the northern parts should see mostly average to slightly below average temperatures (-1.0°C to +0.5°C).

Bali: Rainfall is expected to be below average until March, but mostly average thereafter. Generally, above average temperatures of between +2.0°C and +3.5°C should be expected throughout most the forecast period over Buleleng.

Sumba: Rainfall is expected to be mostly to be average to below average in February for all three regions, recovering during March with above average rainfall over Tanarara and average rainfall over Walatungga and Watumbaka in March. All regions should

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experience mostly average to above average rainfall from March onwards. Mostly above average temperatures of between +0.5°C and +3.0°C should be expected during the latter half of the forecast and mostly average during the first half of the forecast period.

North Sulawesi: Bol Mong Timur should expect mostly below average rainfall during the forecast period. Both Minahasa locations should experience above average rainfall for the duration of the forecast period, except in July over Minahasa Selatan-Maesaan in July, when below average rainfall is expected. All three locations should experience average to above average temperatures of between -0.5°C and +5.5°C throughout the entire forecast period (warmest over the Bol Mong Timur region).

Central Sulawesi: Mostly average to above average rainfall should be expected over the Donggala and Toli-Toli regions during the forecast period, trending towards below average in July. Both growing regions should experience above average temperatures of between +0.5°C and +3.0°C during the forecast period (warmest over Toli-Toli)

South Sulawesi: Kolaka Utara will experience mostly below average rainfall for the duration of the forecast period. Above average rainfall should be expected over Luwu in February and March, and over Bone and Bulukumba in March and April. All growing regions will experience below average rainfall during June and July. Except for the Bone area, where temperatures are expected to be mostly below average during the forecast period, the remaining growing regions should experience mostly average temperatures, while mostly above average temperatures should be expected over the Kolaka Utara and Luwu regions during the first half of the forecast period. Luwu can expect average temperatures until May, and above average thereafter.

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Figure 7 below shows the expected monthly rainfall forecasts, climate averages and expected departures for the period January - September 2019. (Blue is above average, red is below average).

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Appendix:

Definitions and explanations:

WMO Precipitation

Decadal precipitation for each WMO station is calculated by adding the ten daily precipitation records and eliminating any station that reported eight days or less. Maps are then generated by Inverse Distance Weighting interpolation method. Daily ground station data is from the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Telecommunication System (GTS), which is a global network of more than 6000 stations. However, many of the 6000 stations do not report to the GTS daily, but approximately 3800 stations report each day.

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WMO Average Temperature

Average daily air temperature is calculated for each WMO station by averaging the daily maximum and minimum air temperatures. The decadal average air temperature is then estimated by averaging the ten daily air temperatures for each WMO station. Any WMO station that reported eight days or less is eliminated, and maps are then generated by Inverse Distance Weighting interpolation method. Daily ground station data is from the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Global Telecommunication System (GTS), which is a global network of more than 6000 stations. However, many of the 6000 stations do not report to the GTS daily, but approximately 3800 stations report each day.

WMO Percent Soil Moisture

Percent soil moisture is the available water for the plant divided by the total water holding capacity of the soil profile. It is useful for determining if the soil profile has enough water for crop development. Available water is calculated by the modified Palmer two-layer soil moisture model, which accounts for the daily amount of water withdrawn by evapotranspiration and replenished by precipitation. The total water holding capacity for each WMO station was derived from the FAO Digital Soil Map of the World and it is dependent on soil texture and depth of the soil profile. For WMO stations overlaying soils with soil depths greater than 1-meter, a maximum soil depth of 1-meter was assumed to approximate the maximum root depth for most plants.

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