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Topics & Format
9.45am Part 1-Designing and using Smart Technologies-45 min with questions
10.30 Break
11.30 am Part 2-Opportunity recognition as a process ,the Opportunity Clinic -60 minutes with questions
12.30 Lunch
2:15pm Part3 -Designing winning business models
and the cognitive/ thinking skills to accelerateopportunity recognition -45 minutes with questions
3.00 Break
Walter Derzko; Smart Economy
Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667
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As we go through this
presentation..think about 4 things
1) What one item did I find fascinating about smarttechnologies? Whats my one take-away idea?
2) What one/two items/ideas can I apply in my business /workplace today?
3) What item/idea do I find terrifying or frightening?
4) What item/idea do I find interesting and would likemore information on?
Walter Derzko; Smart Economy
Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667
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New Emerging Business Opportunities;What makes us rich?
Part 1-Designing and Using
Smart Technologies
by
Walter DerzkoSmart Economy
TorontoWalter Derzko; Smart Economy
Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667
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Insights come from past 35 years
Lateral Thinker-in-residence-McLuhan Programin Culture and Technology, SGS, U of Toronto
Director Idea Lab at the Design Exchange (DX)Toronto
Lecturer-Certificate Program in Entrepreneurshipand Innovation, U of T
Senior Fellow Strategic Innovation Lab, S-Lab,
OCADU, Toronto Lecturer- MA program in Strategic Foresight andInnovation, OCAD University in Toronto
Walter Derzko; Smart Economy
Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667
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StrategicInnovationLab (sLab)A research centre
for strategic foresightand innovation atOCAD University,Toronto, Canada
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Master of Design inStrategic Foresightand Innovation
Canadas firststrategic foresight
graduate program
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8/146Walter Derzko; Smart Economy; Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667. [email protected]
Smart Technologies in the Smart
Economy
6 Overview Topics
What is a smart technology?
Definition Framework & Categories
Examples
Impacts and Consequences of Smart Technologies
Roadmaps
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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy
Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667
Nanotech? Biotech ?Info ?
Nanotech? Biotech ?Infotech ?/Convergence?
Whats the common denominator?
Not technology thats important, new
designer capabilities
Things become smarter; more intelligent Changing landscape
New ground rules
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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy
Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667
Definition
What Makes a Object / System Smart?
Generally speaking, if a system /machine/artifact does something that we think an
intelligent person can do, we consider that
object to be smart.
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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy
Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667
Misnomers
Smart Car ? Intelligent orStylish?
Various adjectives: smart,intelligent, active, dynamic,
wise
The WV "Golf Gti 53 plus 1" has radarand laser sensors to "read" the road
and send the details back to its
computer brain.
Drivers Wanted to.Drivers Optional
http://smarteconomy.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/golfgti300606_228x175.jpg -
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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy
Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667
How do I know if I have
a smart technology?
You can't paint all
products with the
same "smart" brush.
Recognizing that some products or
technologies are smarter then others, we
have developed an intelligence scale todistinguish between levels of
smartness" or intelligence.
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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy
Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667
IntelligenceLevel (1)
Adapting: Modifying Behavior to Fit theEnvironment
IntelligenceLevel (2)
Sensing: Bringing Awareness toEveryday Things
IntelligenceLevel (3)
Inferring: Drawing Conclusions fromRules and Observations
IntelligenceLevel (4)
Learning: Using Experience to ImprovePerformance
IntelligenceLevel (5)
Anticipating: Thinking and Reasoning aboutWhat to Do Next
IntelligenceLevel (6)
Self-creating, Able to reproduce itself
IntelligenceLevel (6)
Self-organizing
Ability for components to self-organize
IntelligenceLevel (6)
Self-sustaining(A)
Ability to replicatecomponents
IntelligenceLevel (6)
Self-sustaining(B)
Ability to process information
IntelligenceLevel (6)
Self-sustaining(C)
Ability to steadily consumeenergy from the environment
2005-2006 Walter Derzko
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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy
Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667
Intelligence Level (1)
Adapting: Modifying Behaviour to Fit the Environment
Adaptive networks, GPS, directory services,collaborative filtering, humanized interfaces,
Basic adapting objects i.e smart clothes
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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy
Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667
Intelligence Level (2)
Sensing: Bringing Awareness to Everyday Things
Sensors, embedded systems (smart badges,smart bricks, smart bridges, smart levees,)
smart environments, smart materials (smart
cement, packaging), smart cameras, smartdoors
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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy
Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667
Intelligence Level (3)Inferring: Drawing Conclusions from Rules & Observations
Expert systems, knowledge bases, inferenceengines, fuzzy logic, basic AI
Darpa Grand Challenge --Driverless Car Race-front end logistics
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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy , Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667. [email protected]
Intelligence Level (4)
Learning: Using Experience to Improve Performance
Subfields of Advanced AI; Case BasedReasoning (CBR), neural nets, genetic
programming,
intelligent agents , AUVs, exoskeletons
ll l ( )
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected] -
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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy. Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667 [email protected]
Intelligence Level (5)
Anticipating: Thinking & Reasoning about What to Do Next
goal-directed systems, robots, artificial lifesoftware,
Smart mind-controlled wheelchair
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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy, Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667; [email protected]
Intelligence Level (6) Self-Organizing: Self-generating
at the cellular or nano level
Self-organizing systems, complex awareness,cognition, self-reproduction and self-healing,
if injured
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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy, Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667;
Tetrad Automobile & Infrastructure1) What gets
Enhanced?2) What gets
Retrieved?
Brought Back
3) What gets
Obsolesced?
Left Behind?
4) At the extreme,
What gets Flippedor Reversed?
http://www.enterstageright.com/archive/articles/0702/070802gridlock.jpghttp://www.ausbcomp.com/~bbott/WINRR/w10msfa.maphttp://www.smugmug.com/photos/64104930-D.jpg -
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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy Toronto, Canada 416-829-9667; [email protected]
Smart Technology Impacts?
Pervasive, Ubiquitous
Disruptive (think computers & secretaries)
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Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy Blog
Toronto, Canada 416-829-9667
Smart Technology Impacts?
Pervasive, Ubiquitous
Disruptive
As great as the emergence of writing,language & the PC
Look for obvious & hidden 2 & 3 effects
Creeping up silently on society
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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy; Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667; [email protected]
Smart Technology Impacts?
Pervasive, Ubiquitous, Disruptive
As great as the emergence of writing, language &the PC
Look for obvious & hidden 2 & 3 effects
Creeping up silently on society
What controls /regulations do we have overadoption?
Erroneous assumption that everything will be
positive
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Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy Blog
Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667
Smart Technology Impacts?
Pervasive, Ubiquitous Disruptive As great as the emergence of writing, language & the PC Look for obvious & hidden 2 & 3 effects
Creeping up silently on society
What controls do we have over adoption? Erroneous assumption that everything will be positive Google smart technology July 27, 2006> 300 Million hits ;
Oct 20, 2010 > 15,300 hits in 24 hours No standards, no regulations , fragmented market
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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy
Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667; [email protected]
Smart Technology Impacts?
Pervasive, Ubiquitous Disruptive
As great as the emergence of writing, language & the PC
Look for obvious & hidden 2 & 3 effects
Creeping up silently on society
What controls do we have over adoption?
Erroneous assumption that everything will be positive
Google smart technology July 27, 2006> 300 Million hits
No standards, regulations yet
Not in the public mindset yet
Lack of public discourse,
Very few media sources have grasped the social significanceyet
How will the Smart Economy evolve?
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Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy Blog
Toronto, Canada 416-533-9667
How will the Smart Economy evolve?
Thought Leaders
12th Micro-Machine Summit in Beijing, China April,2006
17 Countries/Regions
Australia
Canada
China
The Netherlands
EC France
Germany
India S. Korea
Nordic
Mediterranean
Singapore
Switzerland Taiwan United Kingdom United States
SpainGreece Portugal Italy
(.like the World Cup for MEMS)
Denmark Norway Finland Sweden
Walter Derzko; Smart Economy
Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667; [email protected]
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14th Micromachine Summit 2008 April 30 - May 3, 2008, Daejeon, Korea
SOUTH KOREA
Chief Delegate Young-Ho Cho
Delegates Jong-Uk Bu, Sang-Rok Lee, Yong-Soo Oh,
Observers Il Doh
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
How will the Smart Economy evolve?
http://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.html -
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Micromachine Summit 2010 (16th) April 28 - April 30, 2010,
Dortmund, Germany
Micromachine Summit 2009 (15th) May 5 - May 8, 2009,
Edmonton, Alberta, Canada
Micromachine Summit 2008 (14th) April30 - May 3, 2008,
Daejeon, Korea
Micromachine Summit2007 (13th) April 27 - 29, 2007, Venice, Italy
How will the Smart Economy evolve?
Thought Leaders
Source: http://www.micromachinesummit.org/
Walter Derzko; Smart EconomyToronto, Canada 416-819-9667; [email protected]
http://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2010/2010.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2010/2010.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2009/Summit2009.pdfhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2009/Summit2009.pdfhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2007-Venice/home.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2007-Venice/home.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2008/2008.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2009/Summit2009.pdfhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2009/Summit2009.pdfhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2009/Summit2009.pdfhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2009/Summit2009.pdfhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2010/2010.htmlhttp://mmc.la.coocan.jp/kokusai/summit/2010/2010.html -
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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy; Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667; [email protected]
EC Roadmap
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Walter Derzko; Smart Economy; Toronto, Canada 416-819-9667; [email protected]
A mite next to a gear set
produced using MEMS
Courtesy: Sandia National Laboratories,
SUMMiTTM Technologies,
www.mems.sandia.gov
A larger MEMS object
Courtesy: 12th Micro-Machine Summit in
Beijing, China April,2006
4t Wave of IT: Forrester
mailto:[email protected]://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Nanogearandbug.jpgmailto:[email protected] -
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Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy BlogToronto, Canada 416-819-9667
4t Wave of IT: Forrester
Source: Philips Medical Systems (7th FWP refers to the European Union's Seventh Framework Program)
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Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy BlogToronto, Canada 416-533-9667
N B ildi Bl k
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Walter Derzko; Smart EconomyToronto, Canada 416-8199667; [email protected]
Nano Building Blocks17 Nano-related Terms to Learn
Nanoparticles
Nanocomposites
Nanocapsules
Nanoporous materials
Nanofibres Thin Films and Surface
Layers
NanoparticulateCoatings
Nano plumbing
Pristine Fullerenes
Fullerene derivatives
Carbon Nanotubes (SWNT& MWNT)
Carbon Nanohorns
Quantum Dots(20 nm wide and 8 nm in height)
Nano-onions
Dendrimers
Nanowires Nanomagnets
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Walter Derzko; Smart EconomyToronto, Canada 416-819-9667; [email protected]
Imagine, its now October, 2025
New Technologies?
New Capabilities?
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Walter Derzko; Smart EconomyToronto, Canada 416-819-9667; [email protected]
Dilemma ?
We are trying to plan for:
Technologies that have not been invented
Jobs that dont exist yet
Problems that we cant anticipate yet
Applications that we have yet to imagine
Risks that we cant quantify yet
Viable systems that havent been designed yet
and Creative and Systems type thinking, that mostpeople are not use to doing
T l & St t i
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Walter Derzko; The Smart EconomyToronto, Canada 416-819-9667; [email protected]
Tools & Strategies
Incorporate Science and Technology Horizon
Scanning
Decision-making & Opportunityspotting
Design Issues Management processes Policydevelopment
Organize Scenario planning workshops &Technology Roadmaps to handle uncertainty
Joint Foresight Exercises within industry &
government on NanoBioSmartTech convergence Conduct Opportunity Audits & Clinics jump on
competition
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Remember.Homework..make amental/written note about 4 things
1) What one item did I find fascinating about smarttechnologies? Whats my one take-away idea?
2) What one/two items/ideas can I apply in my business /workplace today?
3) What item/idea do I find terrifying or frightening?
4) What item/idea do I find interesting and would likemore on?
Walter Derzko; Smart EconomyToronto, Canada 416-819-9667; [email protected]
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Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy BlogToronto, Canada 416-819-9667
The End-Part 1 of 3
Thank you for your attention
Happy to answer any questions
Visit the Smart Economy bloghttp://www.smarteconomy.typepad.com
Watch for the upcoming books onOpportunities and smart technologies .
Follow-ups; call Walter Derzko at 416-
819-9667 or [email protected] [email protected]
http://www.smarteconomy.typepad.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.smarteconomy.typepad.com/ -
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New Emerging Business
Opportunities;What makes us rich?Part 2 -The Opportunity Clinic
By
Walter Derzko
Smart EconomyToronto
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The Opportunity Clinic
How to become more opportunity savvy?
Approaches to opportunity recognition
Examples of Opportunity Scenarios
Walter Derzko; The Smart Economy BlogToronto, Canada 416-819-9667
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Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667
Definition
An opportunity is a course of action that ispossible and obviously worth pursuing.
Not a high risk speculation but somethingworth pursuing and obvious in its benefits
Problems -> solutions
Opportunities -> benefits
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Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667
More quotes about Opportunities
Just before it comes into existence, everybusiness is an opportunity that someone hasseen
An opportunity is as real an ingredient inbusiness as raw materials, labor or finance-butit only exists when you can see it.
Often Negative image-opportunism
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Chance favors the prepared mind
L Pasteur
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667; [email protected]
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Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667
Myths about Opportunities &
Recessions
Opportunities occur only in boom times
Most of the worlds millionaires andbillionaires made their fortunes in
recessionary/ depression periods over the last
200 years, according to Malcolm Gladwell in
Outliers
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Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667
Myth
Opportunities occur only in boom times
Sir Richard Branson thinks that the next generation of self-madebillionaires will emerge from the wreckage of this recession.
Sir Richard said: "There are a lot of Richard Bransons that will come out ofthe next three or four years."
The Virgin founder says that the depth of the recession and its impact ononce-impregnable industries has given entrepreneurs their best
opportunity in generations.
"Fortunes are made out of recessions..A lot of entrepreneurs get going
in the economic depths because the barriers to entry are lower," he said
--Branson says recession is time of opportunity The Times. London (UK): Mar 9, 2009. pg. 36
O t iti h i d t t
http://proquest.umi.com.myaccess.library.utoronto.ca/pqdlink?RQT=318&pmid=34402&TS=1245119941&clientId=12520&VInst=PROD&VName=PQD&VType=PQDhttp://proquest.umi.com.myaccess.library.utoronto.ca/pqdlink?RQT=572&VType=PQD&VName=PQD&VInst=PROD&pmid=34402&pcid=42132211&SrchMode=3http://proquest.umi.com.myaccess.library.utoronto.ca/pqdlink?RQT=572&VType=PQD&VName=PQD&VInst=PROD&pmid=34402&pcid=42132211&SrchMode=3http://proquest.umi.com.myaccess.library.utoronto.ca/pqdlink?RQT=318&pmid=34402&TS=1245119941&clientId=12520&VInst=PROD&VName=PQD&VType=PQD -
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Opportunities happens in downturns too-even more
soBusinesses formed Innovations launched
Strategic shifts made Disruptors surged
Source: Scott Anthony
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Microsoft_wordmark.svghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:University_of_Phoenix.svghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Southwest_Airlines_Logo.svghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:NCR_corporation_logo.svghttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/3/35/Ipod_1G.png -
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The Opportunity Clinic
What new insightsdo you get from thiscartoon aboutopportunities?
List as many aspossible
Record is 26
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Insights from thecartoon aboutOpportunities?
Business Offering
(concrete idea)
Generic Concept
(concept behind theidea)
How do I leverage thisconcept even more?
Fisherman is using the
wrong bait?
Sell him the right bait How do I attract
opportunities to come tome? vs. me looking forthem?
How can I become even
more opportunitysensitive? Alert? Anopportunity magnet?
Fisherman was late forthe fishing season?
Sell him a calendar andreminder service
Opportunity windowtiming is critical
Oppn windows open/close
Do I have a portfolio ofOppn Windows for eachbusiness cycle phase?
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
The
Opportunity
Clinic
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Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
Opportunity is a matter of perception
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Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
Opportunities exist everywhere
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Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
Opportunities exist everywhere,
even at the bottom of a recession
O t iti i t h
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How do you findopportunities in
a no-growth or
a slow-growth
economy?
Unstated main
concern ofupcoming G8-20
summit
Opportunities exist everywhere
f f
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Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667
Definition of an Opportunity Space
If an opportunity falls within our opportunityspace, then we can act upon it.
Opportunity space includes all the changes,decisions and choices that we can make, as
well as the assets we are using and actions we
can take.
f f (
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Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667
Definition of an Opportunity Space (or
Opportunity Bubble)
I can make changes in these areas.
These are the decisions I can make.
These choices are up to me.
I can take actions of this sort.
I have the use of these assets.
Personal, department, corporate, national,international
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d ?
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Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667
My Opportunity Space today?
(Continued )An opportunity to:Make contacts
Provide contacts
Make new friends
Arrange further consulting work or in-house training
Learn about different types of industries
Learn about the business climate in different industries inSouth Korea
Recommend or praise a colleague with potential for
reciprocityUse a captive audience to try new ideas or approaches
Find out which promotions were most effective in bringingparticipants to the seminar
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HBR June 2008
Plan A , but
no Plan B or
Plan C
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What do these businesses have in common?
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Nostalgia Opportunity Window-- Class Exercise #1
Think of other nostalgia examples of up-scaled /adult versionsfrom fond memories that you had/ remember as a child?
What did you enjoy as a child that could be turned into an adultversion and a resulting business opportunity?
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
Problem solving vs Paradox unraveling
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Problem-solving vs Paradox-unravelingOpportunity Windows
Traditional Problem Solving Paradigm; look
for solutions
Clash
Values
Beliefs
EmotionsAssumptions
Paradox, Anomaly, Contradictions; design
new systems
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Paradox Opportunity Window
Tertec in Markham OntarioDivested their non-core video kiosk business in previousrecession.
Had 40 experienced staff and CNC machines
Dilemma? Do I Frame as problem? (optimize ROI) or as aparadox?
How to I get the CNC equipment off my balance sheet but stillretain the benefits of these assets for my business?
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Examples of Opportunity Scenarios
Cast Away / Left Behind Opportunities
Opportunities that are ignored or discarded bythe mainstream players who are pursuing
dominant trends (see Trends Opportunities)
Situation Opportunities
Unique or repeating situations or events thatpresent opportunities
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Examples of Opportunity Scenarios
Shortage Opportunities
Products or service or staff shortages thatpresent opportunities to fill gap or design
substitutes
Core Technology Transfer Opportunities
Shifting core technology capabilities from anobvious but recession-prone application to a
less obvious, but more profitable one
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Examples of Opportunity Scenarios
Variable / Dynamic Value Opportunities
Opportunities that change in value fordifferent customers depending on a significant
attribute that they value
Paradox Opportunities
Opportunities that result from your ability tountangle and offer a solution to a vexing
industry paradox, anomaly or contradiction
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Examples of Opportunity Scenarios
Synergy Opportunities
Combining previously un-associatedcomponents, attributes or features that offer
greater value combined than separate
Bundling Opportunities/Un-BundlingOpportunities
Opportunities resulting from players couplingor uncoupling their product or service offering
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Taxonomy for Opportunity Recognition
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Taxonomy for Opportunity Recognition(SARASVATHY, DEW., VELAMURI, & VENKATARAMAN, 2003)
Sarasvathy Suggested three Views of Entrepreneurship/Opportunity Processes
Allocative Discovery
Creativity
Synthesis with Literature Becomes
Recognized or Scanned (look for)
Discovered (find)
Enacted or Designed (make or do)
Choice of Model
Recognized (Ardichvili, Cardozo, & Ray, 2003)
Discovered (Fiet, 2002; Fiet, Clouse, & Norton, 2004)
Enacted (Sarasvathy, 2001; Sarason, Dean, & Dillard, 2006)
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Source: Ed Leach; Dalhousie University
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Source: Ed Leach; Dalhousie University
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Opportunity Recognition Process?
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Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667
Opportunity Recognition Process?
Search, scan
Discover
Design or enact
Copy Transfer
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Opportunity Playbook
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What if an entrepreneur or CEO had a playbook or menu
of Opportunity windows, patterns or scenarios that they
could use to spot, discover or design new opportunityspaces for their business ideas, products or services?
That how the Opportunity Clinic idea was born
-Traditional MBA programs cover about 12 opportunity
scenarios or windows (see next slide)
-The Opportunity Clinic has over 400 opportunity
scenarios in its database
-45 opportunity windows selected for recession/post
recession & challenging economic times
-Opportunity-45 scenario to drive your business in challengingeconomic times by J Wiley & Sons
Opportunity Playbook
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Why we miss Opportunities?
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Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667
Why we miss Opportunities?
1. We fail to see opportunities that are worthwhile to purse-we are just not looking, ignore significant information,ignore the unexpected, too content, too busy with day-to-day problems.
2. Strong commitment but we gaze in the wrong direction-
missing opportunity sensitive areas (OSA) (operations &TQM vs Business models)
3. Looking in right direction but we cannot identify theopportunity window, because we are looking at it in thewrong way (perception or bias issue)
4. We see the opportunity but cannot immediately see all thevalue and benefits
5. We see the opportunity but misjudge risks andoverestimate benefits
Strategies to become more
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Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667
Strategies to become more
Opportunity Savvy?
1. Decide to spend some time and thinking effort in adeliberate search for opportunities or to design them.
2. Use a scanning approach ( Opportunity Clinic), which allowsyou to broaden the direction of search, (looking at severalgeneric opportunity windows or scenarios) instead of being
too eager to pursue one direction in depth (ice fisherman)3. When some opportunity comes into view, make an effort to
look at it in different ways (lateral thinking), before movingon.
4. Spend some time in a deliberate search for benefits in a
situation, instead of expecting them to be self-evident
Examples of Opportunity Clinic scenarios
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Examples of Opportunity Clinic scenarios
from this recession
Water-soluble or Hydrated fullerenes (C60) Fullerenes discovered in 1985 by Robert Curl, Harold Kroto and
Richard Smalley. Won Nobel prize in chemistry in 1996
Supposed silver bullet in medicine
Hype subsided, because pristine natural or synthetic C60 notvery water soluble
Water-soluble or hydrated fullerenes (HyFN-C60) invented byUkrainian scientists in 1997
14 years of R&D, plus clinical trials
Anti-viral, anti-bacterial, high anti-oxidant, anti-malignant etc
About to be released as Fullerene Water Solution (FWS) drinkon Ukrainian market as a natural food supplement
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Hydrated fullerene C60HyFn is a stable, highly
hydrophilic, supra-molecular complex consisting of
60 fullerene molecule enclosed into the first
hydrated shell that contains 24 water molecules:
C60@(H2O)24. This hydrated shell is formed as a result
ofdonor-acceptor interaction between lone-electron
pairs of oxygen, water molecules and electron-
acceptor centers on the fullerene surface.Meanwhile, the water molecules which are oriented
close to the fullerene surface are interconnected by a
three-dimensional network of hydrogen bonds. The
size of C60HyFn is 1.61.8 nm.
The maximal concentration of 60 in the form ofC60HyFn achieved by 2010 is 4 mg/mL.
[35] [36][37][38]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fullerene
Wikipedia
Opportunity Windows
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charge-transfer_complexhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charge-transfer_complexhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charge-transfer_complexhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lone_pairhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lone_pairhttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/cb/C60FWS.jpghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lone_pairhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lone_pairhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charge-transfer_complex -
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Opportunity Windows Left behind Opportunity Windows
Human applications to non-human or animal applications(chickens)
Human Application to agriculture applications (wheat, otherplants)
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Opportunity Windows
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Opportunity Windows Core Capability Transfer Opportunity Windows
Organic applications (prevent or mitigate blood clots inveins- anti-atherosclerotic effect)
to inorganic applications (prevent biofilms that cause rustingin oil pipelines and water pipelines)
Membrane without C60
treatment
Membrane with C60
treatment
Source: March 5, 2009 issue ofJournal of Membrane Sciences
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Development of C60 nanomaterials
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Development of C60 nanomaterials.- Synthesis of new nanosized composition on the bases of metal, dielectric andsemiconducting materials.
- Development and research of bio-nanocomposites.
Physical and chemical research of C60 nanostructures.
- Research of physical and chemical properties of nanostructural materials, and inthe first place fullerenes in hydrated state.
- Research of structural organization of water and water solutions. Cluster nature ofwater.
- Research of behavioral peculiarities of physical and chemical processes inheterogeneous media, structured by hydrated fullerenes.
- Research of behavior peculiarities in water solutions of substances at their smalland super small concentrations.
- Research of the heat-conduction process in media containing nanostructuralmaterials.
- Research of photocatalytic processes in presence of nanomaterials in differentmedia.
Source: http://www.ipacom.com/index.php/en/researches
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C60 Nanostructures for medicine.
- Research of the efficiency and application of hydrated fullerenes for prevention
and treatment ofinfectious diseases and diseases of ear, throat and nose.- Research of the efficiency and application of hydrated fullerenes for childrens
diseases.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes in clinical treatment ofsurgical
diseases.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes in clinical treatment ofwomen's
diseases.- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes for lesions of internal organs in
case ofalcoholism and toxicomania.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes in geriatric practice.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes in sports medicine.
- Research and application hydrated fullerenes in balneology.
Source: http://www.ipacom.com/index.php/en/researches
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C60 Nanostructures in sports.
- Enhancement of exercise tolerance in sportsmen and their sport results without use of
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Enhancement ofexercise tolerance in sportsmen and their sport results without use of
dopes, stimulators, anabolics, etc.
- Improvement ofadaptive abilities in sportsmen under stress conditions.
C60 Nanostructures for cosmetics, perfumery and personal hygiene products.- Research and application of nanostructures with bioantioxidative and structure-
organizing properties as components that significantly improve consumer properties of
cosmetic and perfumery products.
- Protection of gentle components of such products and prolongation of their shelf
life.
- Creation of brand new cosmetic and perfumery products and personal hygieneproducts with health-improving properties.
C60 Nanostructures for pharmacology.
- Development of medicinal forms of hydrated fullerenes for parenteral, oral, intranasal
and other ways of administration.
- Efficiency enhancement of existing pharmaceuticals due to incorporation of hydrated
fullerenes into their composition.
- Development and creation of new vaccines and serums with decreased allergenic and
side effects.
Source: http://www.ipacom.com/index.php/en/researches
C60 Nanostructures for food.
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- Research and application of nanostructures with bio-antioxidative and structure-
organizing properties as components that significantly improve consumer properties of
food.
- Protection of gentle components of food products and prolongation of their shelf life.
- Substitution by hydrated fullerenes ofhazardous conserving agents and stabilizers for
food products.
C50 Nanostructures for agriculture.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes in agriculture for accelerated
germination and growing of plants.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes for enhanced plant resistance to
disease-producing agents.
C60 Nanostructures in veterinary medicine.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes for prevention ofanimal diseases,including viral ones.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes to enhance reproductive qualities,
viability and quality of life of elite animals.
- Research and application of hydrated fullerenes for animals in sports.
Source: http://www.ipacom.com/index.php/en/researches
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Basic Biological research of C60 nanostructures.
- Toxicological research of nano-materials.- Development ofbiocompatible materials on the basis of nano-structural composites.
- Research of biochemical reactions and biological processes in heterogeneous water
media, structured by hydrated fullerenes.
- Research of the biological role of cluster water structures.
- Research of the influence of specific cluster organization of water on increasing of
biological system stability against unfavourable environmental factors, including action ofdifferent electromagnetic fields and ionizing radiation.
- Research of the use of nano-particle solutions as components ofnutrient medium for
microorganisms growth, producers of specific antibiotics, vitamins, proteins, etc.; and as
components ofbiological test-systems for biomedical analyses.
- Research of the use perspectives of hydrated fullerenes for preservation, including
cryoconservation, of different biological material (biomolecules, cells, blood and itscomponents, organs and tissues).
- Research of the influence of hydrated fullerenes on the processes of aging and their
ability to slow down such kinds of processes.
Source: http://www.ipacom.com/index.php/en/researches
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Common sources of technology
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gy
foresight errors and miscalculations
The early hype error. In the short term, marketers, promoters and eagerinventors seem to overestimate the impacts of any new technology and in the longterm underestimate such impacts and consequences (see the Gartner Hype curve)
The replacement hype error- the belief that new technology will replace theexisting incumbent technology & that this will happen relatively fast. In realitycompeting technologies often coexist over a long period of time (i.e. Radio & TV)
The enhancement error- The belief that new technology will only solve oldproblems & supplement existing technological systems. Instead new technologies,especially platform or core technologies often lay the groundwork for entirely newsystems and new resulting systemic problems. (ie the electric motor for therailway, the car for the roadway infrastructure, the PC for the Internet, nanotech &
biotech for our bodies "intra-structure" (the Human Genome project and HapMap,and SNP's ), the impacts of which we do not fully understand yet.
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Source: http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1447613
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Common sources of technology
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gy
foresight errors and miscalculations
The panacea error-The mistaken belief that new technology willfunction as a panacea for various social problems
The patterning and sense-making error- The difficulty of seeingnew important links between seemingly unrelated and differentfields of technology, especially in cases where this novelcombination of fields is precisely what will offer major accelerateddevelopment opportunities
The social impacts error- Often people who have tried to predictthe future have become bogged down in the actual technology andneglected the economic and social aspects.
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Common sources of technology
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gy
foresight errors and miscalculations
The prisoners of our times error- That without realizing it, people tend to beprisoners of the spirit of their times ( Zeitgeist), erroneously believing that the bigissues of today will also be the big issues of tomorrow
The decision criteria error- The belief that only rational economic considerationsare the only factors behind that choice of one technology over another. However,
for many people, seemingly irrational considerations determine such choices
The information gap error- The information on which science and technology(S&T) foresight studies are based on is often insufficient. Technology developmentis not linear, transparent or fully predictable, with surprise developments comingout of left field such as the secret work that is done in the military or a new startupworking in stealth mode before it goes public with a breakthrough.
(We have a list of over 100 thinking errors or cognitive biases in the OpportunityClinic Workshop)
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The End Part 2
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New Emerging Business Opportunities;
What makes us rich?Part 3-Designing WinningBusiness Models
By
Walter Derzko
Smart Economy
Toronto
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Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
Companies that arent able to
systematically rejuvenate their
business model will struggle tosurvive and thrive
Source: http://www.alexosterwalder.com/
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Over 15 definitions in the
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academic literature
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Business model innovation matters and it isa top priority of CEOs
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Operating Margin Growth in Excess of
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Competitive Peers
compound annual growth rate over five years
[Source: IBM, CEOs are expanding the innovation horizon: important implications for CIOs]
Benefits Cited by Business Model Innovators
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percent of respondents
[Source: IBM, Global CEO Study 2006]
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Source: http://www.alexosterwalder.com/
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Definition
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Definition
A business model describes
the rationale of how an
organization creates, delivers,
and captures value
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The Business Model Canvas
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Finance
ClientsInfrastructure Offer
The business model describes
the rationale of how an
organization creates, deliversand captures value
The canvas elaborates the
business model through nine
basic building blocks that cover
the four main areas of a
business: clients, offer,
infrastructure, and financial
viability.
The business model is a blueprint for a
strategy to be implemented through
organizational structures, processes,
and systems Source: http://www.alexosterwalder.com/
The Nine Building Blocks of the Osterwalder Business Model
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Clients
Client Segments
An organization serves one or several client segments
Channels
Value propositions are delivered to clients through
communication, distribution, and sales channels
Customer/Client Relationships
Client relationships are established and maintained with
each customer segment
Value Propositions
Solve client problems and satisfy client needs with value
propositions
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INFRASTRUCTURE
Key Resources
Key resources required to offer and deliver the value propositions ...
Key Activities
by performing a number of key activities
Key Partnerships
Key partnerships are formed to acquire some resources and perform some
activities
Financial Viability
Revenue Streams
Revenue streams result from value propositions offered toclients
Cost Structure
All the infrastructure elements result in costs
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Acquisitions Business ModelBusiness Innovations and To-be Model
Version 5 July 10 , 2009
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1. Present the Acquisitions as-is business model
2. Elaborate the proposed innovations
3. Present the Acquisitions to-be business model
For the innovations to the business model:
The challenges
The proposed actions
The benefits
The changes to the business modelFor the business model:
Description of the canvas and the components of
the business model (in the annex)
Objectives
Information provided
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
Procurement As-isSERVICES RELATIONSHIPS CLIENTSKEY
RESOURCESKEY
PARTNER
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CHANNELS
REVENUE STREAMSCOST CENTRES
RESOURCESPARTNER
KEYACTIVITIES
Suppliers- goods & services
OGDs- own authority- delegated authority
Treasury Board
IT Service Branch
Staff
Instruments
IT tools
CommodityClassification
Authorities
Data
Staff
Inter-departmental
committeesAccount executives
Events
1-800 service
Government ofCanada
OGDsOthergovernments
SMEs
AcquisitionsStewardship
Contracting- Specialized- Complex- Standard- Custom- Common- Unique- Low-dollar value- Routine
Commodity
Expert Services
Create & administer contracts &instruments
Advise clients
Analyse data and trends
Marketing & communications
Training
Vendor registration
Operations staff
Phone, fax, e-mail
IT tools and web sites
Electronic interfaces
E-tenderingCanadian Commercial Corp.
Appropriations
Fees
Salary and O&M
IT transfer
IT maintenance & development
CHALLENGESSERVICES RELATIONSHIPS CLIENTSKEY
RESOURCESKEY
PARTNER
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AcquisitionsStewardship
Contracting- Specialized- Complex- Standard- Custom- Common- Unique- Low-dollar value- Routine
Commodity
Expert Services
CHANNELS
REVENUE STREAMSCOST CENTRES
RESOURCESPARTNER
KEYACTIVITIES
o Standardize our terminology to
describe procuremento Re-balance workload, with
clients taking responsibility forroutine procurement
o Support clients that lackcapacity or capability to doroutine procurement
o Emphasize PWGSCs increased
focus on value added, complexprocurement
INNOVATIONSSERVICES RELATIONSHIPS CLIENTSKEY
RESOURCESKEY
PARTNER
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Focus Contractingservice on addedvalue service
- Enterprise- Complex- Standard
Implementclassification ofprocurement basedon Dynamic BaselineModel
Create a client-procurement supportservice bundle
- Commodity
management- Routine procurement
Align delegatedauthorities with clientcapability
Clients haveresponsibility forroutineprocurement
Full cost recovery forroutine procurementsupport service
CHANNELS
REVENUE STREAMSCOST CENTRES
RESOURCESPARTNER
KEYACTIVITIES
BENEFITSSERVICES RELATIONSHIPS CLIENTSKEY
RESOURCESKEY
PARTNER
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Focus Contractingservice on addedvalue service
- Enterprise- Complex- Standard
Implementclassification ofprocurement basedon Dynamic BaselineModel
Create a client-procurement supportservice bundle
- Commodity
management- Routine procurement
Align delegatedauthorities with clientcapability
Clients haveresponsibility forroutineprocurement
Full cost recovery forroutine procurementsupport service
CHANNELS
REVENUE STREAMSCOST CENTRES
RESOURCESPARTNER
KEYACTIVITIES
o A common reference forprocurement across the GC
o Client focus is on lower dollar androutine procurements, where timeto delivery is important
o PWGSC focus is on highercomplexity and risk, where weprovide key added value
o For clients who do not havecapacity for routine procurement, asupport service will be in place
o Full cost recovery for work we dounder the routine procurementsupport service.
Procurement To-beSERVICES RELATIONSHIPS CLIENTSKEY
RESOURCESKEY
PARTNER
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AcquisitionsStewardship
Contracting- Enterprise
- Complex
- Standard
Procurement support- Commodity management
- Routine procurement
Expert services
Staff
Instruments
IT toolsExpandeddelegation ofauthority
Data standards &reporting
Suppliers- goods & services
GC depts &Agencies- Routine procurement
Treasury Board
IT Service Branch
CommodityClassification
CHANNELS
REVENUE STREAMSCOST CENTRES
RESOURCESPARTNER
KEYACTIVITIES
Appropriations
Fees
Routine procurement
Procurement As-isSERVICES RELATIONSHIPS CLIENTSKEY
RESOURCESKEY
PARTNER
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CHANNELS
REVENUE STREAMSCOST CENTRES
RESOURCESPARTNER
KEY
ACTIVITIES
Suppliers- goods & services
OGDs- own authority- delegated authority
Treasury Board
IT Service Branch
Staff
Instruments
IT tools
CommodityClassification
Authorities
Data
Staff
Inter-departmental
committeesAccount executives
Events
1-800 service
Government ofCanada
OGDsOthergovernments
SMEs
AcquisitionsStewardship
Contracting- Specialized- Complex- Standard- Custom- Common- Unique- Low-dollar value- Routine
Commodity
Expert Services
Create & administer contracts &instruments
Advise clients
Analyse data and trends
Marketing & communications
Training
Vendor registration
Operations staff
Phone, fax, e-mail
IT tools and web sites
Electronic interfaces
E-tenderingCanadian Commercial Corp.
Appropriations
Fees
Salary and O&M
IT transfer
IT maintenance & development
Procurement To-beSERVICES RELATIONSHIPS CLIENTSKEY
RESOURCESKEY
PARTNER
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AcquisitionsStewardship
Contracting- Enterprise
- Complex
- Standard
Procurement support- Commodity management
- Routine procurement
Expert services
Suppliers- goods & services
GC depts &Agencies- Routine procurement
Treasury Board
IT Service Branch
CommodityClassification
Government ofCanada
GC Depts &Agencies
Othergovernments
SMEs
Staff
Inter-departmentalcommittees
Account executivesEvents
Support centres
Bi-Annual Conference
Communities ofPractice
Create & administer contracts &instruments
Advise clients
Analyse data and trends
Marketing & communications
Training
Vendor registration
Information sharing (communities)
Operations staff
Phone, fax, e-mail
Acquisitions portal
E-bidding
Canadian Commercial Corp.
Appropriations
Fees
Routine procurement
Salary and O&M
IT transfer
IT maintenance & development
Support centres
CHANNELS
REVENUE STREAMSCOST CENTRES
RESOURCESPARTNER
KEY
ACTIVITIES
Staff
Optimizedinstruments andIT tools
Expandeddelegation ofauthority
Data standards &reporting
Shortcomings?
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Shortcomings?
Business Model Canvas doesnt elicit whichstrategic decisions need to be made about the
business
Business Model Canvas doesnt account forindustry dynamics
Does not deal with risk and uncertainty
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Hierarchy of Business Model Domain
P i
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Perspectives
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Hierarchy of Business Model DomainPerspectives
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Perspectives
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Strategic business decisionsin each domain
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in each domain
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
Strategic business decisionsin each domain
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in each domain
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
Industry Systems Dynamics
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y y y
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
Source: Doug Reid, SFI OCAD 2010
Industry Systems Dynamics
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y y y
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
Source: Doug Reid, SFI OCAD 2010
Mapping
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Mapping
Industry
SystemDynamics
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
Source: Doug Reid,
SFI OCAD 2010
System Dynamics Simulations
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Source: Doug Reid, SFI
OCAD 2010
Simulations and Policy Decisions
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y
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
Source: Doug Reid, SFI OCAD 2010
Eight generic approaches to
C ti it & I ti
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Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
Creativity & Innovation
Accident, chance, serendipity> too random Analysis, number-crunching >incremental improvements
Brainstorming or Think out of the box >No structure> low hitrate for radical ideas- 4.5%
Games & Puzzles > Warm-up; Practice but not practical Mentors, hang around creative people > random
Linear, step-by-step formula approach >easy for trainers toteach, but not the way the brain works
Direct deliberate teaching & use of thinking (cognitive) skillsjust like we teach +, -, x. /, in math > most efficient & effective
Parallel Thinking approach i.e. Six Hats
Creative/Cognitive Thinking skills for
design
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design
Real life examples
Designing a new tennis racket
Designing a new concept for a plate
Designing an new health care business model
Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667
Example of Concept Challenge
C d J&J M N l L b G l h
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Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667
Case study: J&J-McNeal Labs; Guelph
What do we take
for granted?
Provocation
Stepping Stone
Opportunity Idea
Concept or Solution
People do
not pay
attention to
expiry dates
onmedication
Escape
Bottle pays
Attention
Label Changes
color
Bottle Changes
color
Need for QC?
Example of Concept Challenge
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Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667
p p g
What do we take
for granted?
Provocation
Stepping Stone
Opportunity Idea
Concept or Solution
People do
not pay
attention to
expiry dates
onmedication
Reversal
Expiry date pays
attention to people
Color-coded
Exp Date
Industry Wide
Std
SensorsSmart Meds
Cabinet
Example of Concept Challenge
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p p g
What do we take
for granted?
Provocation
Stepping Stone
Opportunity Idea
Concept or Solution
People do
not pay
attention to
expiry dates
onmedication
Distortion
People encouraged
to pay attention
to exp dates
Contest
DisposalSend in/drop off
win
Example of Concept Challenge
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p p g
What do we take
for granted?
Provocation
Stepping Stone
Opportunity Idea
Concept or Solution
People do
not pay
attention to
expiry dates
onmedication
Exaggeration
Exp date size of
city hall clock
Phone Alert
Reminder Service
Package
Beeps
New Promotion
vehicle?
noticeable
Example of Concept Challenge
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Opportunity Clinic Smart Economy 416-819-9667
What do we take
for granted?
Provocation
Stepping Stone
Opportunity Idea
Concept or Solution
People do
not pay
attention to
expiry dates
onmedication
Wishful thinking
Wouldnt it be nice
if meds pay attentionto own exp dates
Meds change
Color at 60%
potency
Meds
self-destruct
Classic Strategy and Unknowns
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Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * 416-819-9667
Strategy is about making decision, choices Classic decision theory (French 1988)
distinguishes between 3 sets of conditions
Decision-making under certaintyDecision-making under risk
Decision-making under uncertainty
Many people incorrectly use the 2 terms (risk& uncertainty) interchangeably
Classic Strategy and Unknowns
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Classic decision theory (French 1988) distinguishes
between 3 sets of conditionsDecision-making under certaintyDecision-making under riskDecision-making under uncertainty
Decision-making under deep/severe uncertainty Decision-making under ambiguity Decision-making under equivocality Decision-making under complexity
Decision-making under dichotomy Decision-making under anomaly, contradiction orparadox
Decision-making under info glut
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AmbiguityEquivocality Uncertainty
Complexity
No
definition
Multiple
Definitions
One definition,
with some
confidence or
predictability
One definition,
With certainty
But with many
Related elements
Information /Knowledge Matrix
from the Opportunity Clinic
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Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * 416-819-9667
from the Opportunity Clinic
Lack of..
Variety of../
Diversity of
Information Knowledge
Uncertainty Ambiguity
Complexity Equivocality
Acquire
Restrict
Analysis Interpretation
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Unknowns?
Uncertainty?
Ambiguity?
Dichotomy?
Complexity?
Contradiction.
Anomaly or Paradox?
Equivocality?
Info glut?
Sense-making Framework
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Knowledge ProblemIndetermination
Strategy/tactics/Cognitive skills toaddress problem
Tools methods toaddress problem
1.0 Ambiguity
( lack of any framework),
No Definitions
1.0 Interpret, Classify,Clarify; assemble
diverse expert networks;face-2-face; asking theright questions, keyissues ? keyuncertainties? divergentfollowed by convergent
thinking, lateral thinking;
re-frame, enact,hypothesize, test
1.0
2x2 matrix or multi
scenario building,contradiction maps,create novel frameworks,system dynamicsmodeling, tech road-maps, 6 thinking hats,viable systems modelingVSM,
Sense-making Framework
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819-9667
Knowledge ProblemIndetermination
Strategy/tactics/Cognitive skills toaddress problem
Tools methods toaddress problem
2.0 Uncertainty ( lack ofdata or even which
questions to ask to findthe information), OneDefinition with somecertainty or predictability
2.0 Interpret, Classify,Certify, Verify:
assemble broad flexiblenetworks, face-2-face,asking right questions,convergent thinking,lateral thinking; get info;infer, assume or
predict, be flexible,buffer from critics
2.0 gap analysis ,technology road-maps.
generic technologyevolution maps, DSS,DBMS, tagging,folksonomies,taskonomy
Real Applications?
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Starting and Managing a Business in Challenging
Economic Times
by Walter Derzko
The following five one to two day-long sessions
are based on over 25 years of research from the
Opportunity Clinic and the book Opportunity-45 scenarios to drive your business in
challenging times by Walter Derzko
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
Session 1-Dealing with Unknowns & Risks in your BusinessParticipants will explore and learn how to deal with the seven
common types of unknowns facing every business (uncertainty,
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yp g y ( y
ambiguity, equivocality, complexity, dichotomy, anomaly/paradox
and infoglut) and explore strategies and tactics with coping anddealing with each. Each participant will also map the 6 types of
changes that exist in the external business environment and the
likely effect on their business success.
Session 2-Opportunity Recognition and spotting, discovering or
designing emerging Opportunity Windows
Challenging economic time and turbulence present both
challenges/threats and unique one-in-a-life time opportunities for
each business. This session will explore common opportunityscenarios that we can expect to see in the next one to three year
and how the seize the resulting opportunity windows and lessen
the possible threats of each
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
Session 3-Business Model makeover
Business owners will learn how to evaluate their existing business
models and fine tune and adapt them to changing threats and
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models and fine tune and adapt them to changing threats and
opportunities discovered in session one and two
Session 4-Anticipatory Management
Participants will explore 8 remote but possible wild card scenarios that
could either wreck or rocket their business forward, depending on your
mindset, anticipatory management prowess and preparatory skills
Session 5 Creating a Business Playbook for challenging economic times
Business owners will create their own flexible and customized Playbook
of business strategic decisions, strategies and tactics based on the
output of the first four sessions-risks and uncertainties, changes and
business drivers, threats and opportunities, and wildcard mitigation
tactics
Recap
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1) What one item did I find fascinating about smarttechnologies? Whats my one take-away idea?
2) What one/two items/ideas can I apply in my
business / workplace today?
3) What item/idea do I find terrifying or frightening?
4) What item/idea do I find interesting and would like
more information on?
Walter Derzko * The Opportunity Clinic * Smart Economy * Toronto * 416-819-9667
The End-Part 3 of 3
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Thank you for your attention Happy to answer any questions
Visit the Smart Economy bloghttp://www.smarteconomy.typepad.com
Watch for the upcoming books onOpportunities and smart technologies .
Follow-ups; call Walter Derzko at 416-819-9667 or email
[email protected] [email protected]
http://www.smarteconomy.typepad.com/mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]://www.smarteconomy.typepad.com/