South Carolina Economic Update
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Transcript of South Carolina Economic Update
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South Carolina Economic Update
Dr. Don SchunkResearch EconomistBB&T Center for Economic & Community DevelopmentCoastal Carolina University
October 5, 2009
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SC Total EmploymentJan. 1990 – August 2009
June 2000:1,883,300 jobs
August 2009:1,848,600 jobs
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US Total EmploymentJan. 1990 – September 2009
Feb. 2001:132.5 million jobs
Sept. 2009:130.9 million jobs
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Myrtle Beach MSA Total EmploymentJan. 1990 – August 2009
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Columbia MSA Total EmploymentJan. 1990 – August 2009
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Greenville MSA Total EmploymentJan. 1990 – August 2009
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Spartanburg MSA Total EmploymentJan. 1990 – August 2009
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SC Total Employment: Annual Job GrowthJan 1940 – August 2009
August 2009:-4.1%
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Recent Unemployment Trends in South Carolina
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SC Unemployment RateJan. 1976 – August 2009
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Unemployed (number)Continued Claims
SC Unemployed & UI ClaimsJan. 1987 – August 2009
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SC Employment (HH survey)SC Employment (business survey)
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SC EmploymentJan. 2009 – August 2009
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SC Exhaustion RateUS Exhaustion Rate
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UI Exhaustion RateJune 1972 – August 2009
People are exhausting UI benefits at a record rate… this is why continued claims, unemployed, and unemployment rate have been falling.
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SC Labor ForceJan. 2009 – August 2009
SC’s labor force fell by 28,000 between May and August 2009
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Recalculated Unemployment RateOfficial Unemployment Rate
SC Unemployment Rate revisitedJan. 2009 – August 2009
12.6%
11.5%
Given the actual trends in employment, what if the state’s labor force had remained unchanged since May?
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SC Initial Claims for UIJan. 2009 – August 2009
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Initial ClaimsUnemployment Rate
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SC Initial Claims & UnemploymentJan. 2009 – August 2009
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U.S. Real GDP Growth1990Q1 – 2010Q4
2000 3.7%2001 0.8%2002 1.6%2003 2.5%2004 3.6%2005 2.9%2006 2.8%2007 2.0%2008 1.1%2009 -2.6%2010 1.5%
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Headwinds AffectingConsumer Spending
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Job losses, flat incomes, household rebalancing translates into weak consumer spending
Aug. 2008 to Aug. 2009:
US Retail Sales down 5.6%
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S.C. Retail SalesJan. 1990 – July 2009
May-July 2008 to May-July 2009:
SC Retail Sales down 12.5%
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A Few Key Sectors in South Carolina• June 2008 – June 2009: SC net loss of 92,700 jobs
– Manufacturing: -29,800– Leisure & Hospitality: -16,500– Retail Trade: -12,100– Construction: -10,900 (-24,400 since June 2007)
• These sectors ~ 40% of all jobs• These + Govt. ~ 60% of all jobs• From 2002-2007: SC Employment increased by roughly 155
thousand– Over 50% of the job growth came from construction, leisure &
hospitality, retail trade, and local government
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SC Total Employment: Annual Job Growth1940Q1 – 2010Q4
2000 1.6%2001 -1.9%2002 -1.0%2003 0.2%2004 1.4%2005 1.8%2006 2.2%2007 2.0%2008 -0.9%2009 -4.3%2010 -1.7%
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S.C. Total Employment Growth:Annual 1990 - 2010
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2000 1.6%2001 -1.9%2002 -1.0%2003 0.2%2004 1.4%2005 1.8%2006 2.2%2007 2.0%2008 -0.9%2009 -4.3%2010 -1.7%
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S.C. Unemployment Rate1976Q1 – 2010Q4
SC’s unemployment rate:
Expected to approach 15%, perhaps during Spring 2010
The roles of:-ongoing job losses-sluggish job growth-labor force growth
What about broader measures of unemployment?
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1970Q1 – 2010Q4
140,000 net job loss from2000 - 2010
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The State of Economic Development in South Carolina
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Gains Losses
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SC Employment Dynamics1992Q3 – 2008Q3
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SC Employment Dynamics1992Q3 – 2008Q3
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SC Employment Dynamics1992Q3 – 2008Q3
How do we add jobs?
-Attract New Business
-Encourage Expansion-Prevent Closings-Prevent Contractions