South Asia Cultural Reassertion and Divergent Economic Strategies.

South AsiaCultural Reassertion and Divergent

Economic Strategies

Partition of British India, 1947

I. India (independence 1947)

A. Population

1941 = 319 million (including what became East and West Pakistan)

1960 = 435 million (not including East and West Pakistan)

1990 = 815 million

2000 = 1 billion

B. GNP per person in 1990 = US$360

India and Pakistan

C. Government (Federal republic)

1. Jawaharlal Nehru (1889–1964), Prime Minister, 1947–1964

a. industrialization policies

b. on-going conflict with Pakistan over Kashmir

c. border conflict with China, 1962

2. Indira Gandhi (1917–1984), Prime Minister, 1966–77, 1980–84

a. war with Pakistan 1971

b. involuntary sterilization policy carried out by Sanjay Gandhi

3. Morarji Desai (1896–1995), Prime Minister, 1977–1980

4. Rajiv Gandhi (1944–1991), Prime Minister, 1984–1991

Muhammad Ali Bogra and Jawaharlal Nehru

Indira Gandhi (1917–1984)Prime Minister, 1966–77, 1980–84

Richard Nixon and Indira Gandhi

General Sam Manekshaw (1914-2008)

Morarji Desai(1896−1995)Prime Minister,1977−1979

Rajiv Gandhi(1944−1991)Prime Minster,1984−1989

II. Pakistan (independence 1947)

A. Population

1947 = 25 million (not including East Pakistan)

1990 = 111 million

2000 = 151 million


Pakistan

Ethnic Makeup of Pakistan

C. Government (Parliamentary democracy in a federal setting [tempered by military dictatorship])

1. Mohammed Ali Jinnah (1876–1948), President, 1947–1948

2. Ayub Khan (1907–1974), Chief Marshal Law Administrator and President, 1958–1969

3. Yahya Khan (1917–1980) Chief Marshal Law Administrator and President, 1969–1971

a. elections, 1970

b. war with India, 1971

c. East Pakistan becomes Bangladesh with India’s help

Muhammad Ali Jinnah (1876–1948) President, 1947–1948

Ayub Khan (1907–1974), Chief Marshal Law Administrator and President, 1958–1969

Yahya Khan (1917–1980) Chief Marshal Law Administrator and President, 1969–1971

C. Government (Parliamentary democracy in a federal setting [tempered by military dictatorship])

4. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (1928–1979), President, 1971–1973; Prime Minister 1973–1977

5. Zia ul-Haq (1924–1988) Chief Marshal Law Administrator and President, 1977–88

6. Benazir Bhutto (1953– 2007) Prime Minister 1988–1990, 1993–1996

Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (1928–1979), President, 1971–1973; Prime Minister 1973–1977

Zia ul-Haq (1924–1988) Chief Marshal Law Administrator and President, 1977–88

Benazir Bhutto (1953–2007) Prime Minister 1988–1990,

1993–1996

III. Bangladesh (independence 1971)

A. Population

1947 = 50 million (at the time: East Pakistan)

1971 = 117 million

2000 = 128 million


Bangladesh

Bangladeshi Paddy Field

Satellite Image of Bangladesh

C. Government (Parliamentary democracy [and army strongmen])

1. Sheikh Mujibur Rehman (1922–1975), Prime Minister 1972–1975;

President, 1975

2. Ziaur Rahman (Zia) (1936–1981), President 1978–1981

3. Hussain Mohammed Ershad (19??– ) Chief Marshal Law

Administrator, Prime Minister, and President 1982–1990

4. Begum Khaleda Zia (1945– ), Prime Minister 1991–1996, 2001–2006

5. Sheikh Hasina (1947– ), Prime Minister 1996–2001

IV Afghanistan (independence 1919)

A. Population

1920 = 5.25 million (est.)

1947 = 11 million

1979 = 13 million

1991 = 16.43 million

2002 = 27.7 million


Afghanistan

Topography of Afghanistan

Northwestern Afghanistan

Afghanistan

C. Government (in transition)

1. Daoud Khan (1909–78), Prime Minister 1953–63; President 1973–78

a. proclaimed Republic of Afghanistan

b. assassinated in coup of April 1978

2. Nur Mohammed Taraki (1913–1979), Head of Khalq faction of Communist Party

a. proclaimed People’s Democratic Republic of Afghanistan

b. assassinated in coup of September 1979

3. Hafizullah Amin (1929–1979). Member of Khalq faction

a. continued attempt to implement socialism immediately

b. assassinated in coup of December 1979

Daoud Khan (1909–78), Prime Minister 1953–63; President 1973–78

Nur Mohammed Taraki (1913–1979), President April 27, 1978–September 14, 1979

Hafizullah Amin (1929–1979). President September 14, 1979–December 27, 1979

C. Government (in transition)(continued)

4. Babrak Karmal (1929–1996 ) Head of Parcham faction of Communist Party

a. President 1980–1986

5. Mohammed Najibullah (1947– 1996), President 1986–1996

Babrak Karmal (1929–1996) President 1980–1986

D. Soviet Intervention 1979–1989

1. Mujahedin (“strugglers”)

– reaction to Afghan communist party reforms

Gulbuddin Hekmatyar (1947– )

Ahmad Shah Massoud (1953–2001)

Arabs in Afghanistan

Abdullah Yusuf Azzam (1941–1989)

Osama bin Mohammed bin Awad bin Laden (1957–2011)


Brezhnev in response to one of Taraki’s requests for Soviet intervention (March 1979):

“We must not do this. It would only play into the hands of enemies—both yours and ours.”

Afghan Communist Party made 16 separate requests to the Soviet Union to intervene


2. U.S. response (Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Adviser 1977–1981)

a. July 3, 1979: Carter signs directive providing

assistance to mujahedin

b. According to Brzezinski, the hope was to provoke the Soviet Union to intervene militarily in

Afghanistan

Brzezinski interview with Le Nouvel Observateur (Paris) January 15−21, 1998

Q: The former director of the CIA, Robert Gates, stated in his memoirs [From the Shadows] that American intelligence services began to aid the mujahedin in Afghanistan 6 months before the Soviet intervention. In this period, you were the national security advisor to President Carter. You therefore played a role in this affair. Is that correct?

Brzezinski interview with Le Nouvel Observateur (Paris) January 15−21, 1998

Brzezinki: Yes, According to the official version of history, CIA aid to the mujahedin began during 1980, that is to say, after the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan, 24 Dec. 1979. But the reality, secretly guarded until now, is completely otherwise: Indeed, it was 3 July 1979 that President Carter signed the first directive for secret aid to the opponents of the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul. And that very day, I wrote a note to the president in which I explained to him that in my opinion this aid was going to induce a Soviet military intervention.

Zbigniew Brzezinski, National Security Adviser 1977–1981

More or less immediate results of Soviet intervention and U.S. supporting the mujahedin

Casualties

Soviet = 50,000 (14,500 deaths)

Afghani = 1 million

Drugs (Pakistani-Afghan border)

opium = rose to 75% of the world’s supply

heroin = rose to 80% of the world’s supply

Cost to U.S. = $2 billion (over the course of 10 years) to mujahedin

−of which an estimated $1 billion went to Hekmatyar

Mohammed Najibullah (1947– 1996), President 1986–1996

Najibullah (1996), as the mujahedin closed in on Kabul:

“We have a common task—Afghanistan, the U.S.A., and the civilized world—to launch a joint struggle against fundamentalism [that, if it] comes to Afghanistan, will continue for many years. Afghanistan will turn into a center of world smuggling for narcotic drugs. Afghanistan will be turned into a center for terrorism.”

Ahmad Shah Massoud (1953-2001) – head of Northern Alliance

Chronology of Events in Afghanistan

1989 (15 February) Soviet war in Afghanistan: The last Soviet troops left the country.

1992 (24 April) Civil war in Afghanistan (1989-1992): Afghan political parties signed the Peshawar Accord, which created the Islamic State of Afghanistan and proclaimed Sibghatullah Mojaddedi its interim President.

Gulbuddin Hekmatyar’s Hezbi Islami, with the support of neighboring Pakistan, began a massive bombardment against the Islamic State in the capital Kabul.


1994 (August). The Taliban government began to form in a small village between Lashkar Gah and Kandahar.

1995 January. The Taliban, with Pakistani support, initiated a military campaign against the Islamic State of Afghanistan and its capital Kabul.

1995 (13 March). The Taliba, tortured and killed Abdul Ali Mazari leader of the Hazara people.


1996 (26 September) Civil war in Afghanistan (1996−2001): The forces of the Islamic State retreated to northern Afghanistan.

(27 September) Civil war in Afghanistan (1996−2001): The Taliban conquered Kabul and declared the establishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. Former President Mohammad Najibullah, who had been living under United Nations protection in Kabul, was tortured, castrated, and executed by Taliban forces.

Mohammed Najibullah and his brother at the hands of the Taliban

Map of the situation in Afghanistan in late 1996; Massoud (red); Dostum (green); Taliban (yellow)

Chronology of Events in Afghanistan1998 (August) Civil war in Afghanistan (1996-2001): The Taliban captured Mazar-e Sharif, forcing Abdul Rashid Dostum

into exile.

(20 August) Cruise missile strikes on Afghanistan and Sudan (August 1998): Cruise missiles were fired by the United States Navy into four militant training camps in the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan.

2001 (March) The Taliban destroyed the Buddhas of Bamiyan.

September

Resistance leader Ahmad Shah Massoud was killed in a suicide bomb attack by two Arabs who disguised as French news

reporters.

20

September

After the September 11 attacks i

Site of Taller Buddha of Bamiyan 1963 2008


2001 (9 September) Resistance leader Ahmad Shah Massoud was killed in a suicide bomb attack by two Arabs who disguised as French news reporters.

(20 September) After the September 11 attacks in the United States, U.S. President George W. Bush demanded the Taliban government to hand over al-Qaeda head Osama bin Laden and close all terrorist training camps in the country.

(21 September) The Taliban refused Bush’s ultimatum.


2001 (7 October) Operation Enduring Freedom: The United States and the United Kingdom began an aerial bombing campaign against al-Qaeda and the Taliban.

(20 December) International Conference on Afghanistan in Germany: Hamid Karzai chosen as head of the Afghan Interim Administration.

2002 (July) Hamid Karzai appointed as President of the Afghan Transitional Administration in Kabul, Afghanistan.


2003 (14 December) A 502-delegate loya jirga was held to consider a new Afghan constitution.

2004 (9 October) Hamid Karzai was elected President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan after winning the Afghan presidential election

Inauguration of Hamid Karzai (1957− ) on December 7, 2004


2005 Taliban insurgency: An insurgency began after a Pakistani decision to station around 80,000 soldiers next to the porous

Durand Line border with Afghanistan.

2007 (13 May) Afghanistan–Pakistan skirmishes: Skirmishes began with Pakistan.

2010 U.S. President Barack Obama sent additional 33,000 U.S. soldiers to Afghanistan, with the total international troops reaching 150,000.


2011. After the death of Osama bin Laden in Pakistan, many high profile Afghan officials were assassinated, including among them were Mohammed Daud Daud, Ahmed Wali Karzai, Jan Mohammad Khan, Ghulam Haider Hamidi, and Burhanuddin Rabbani.

2011. Afghanistan National Front was created by Tajik leader Ahmad Zia Massoud, Hazara leader Mohammad Mohaqiq, and Uzbek leader Abdul Rashid Dostum.

Lessons of Super-power involvement in Afghanistan

− So-called law of unintended consequences prevails

− As a result of a misperception of the moderate size of Afghanistan and of a comparatively small population, the temptation of easy manipulation of the situation beckons

− Attempts to destabilize the situation may pay benefits in the short term against a particular enemy; in the long term they create greater problems for the world and the region

V. Sri Lanka (independence 1948)

A. Population

1991 = 17 million

2001 = 18,732,255

2005 = 19,668,000


C. Government (Republic)

Sri Lanka Population Growth

Tamil Tigers

South Asia Cultural Reassertion and Divergent Economic Strategies.

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