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South African Journal of International Affairs: Winter 1997, JohannesburgAuthor(s): Alexander JohnstonSource: Foreign Policy, No. 108 (Autumn, 1997), pp. 179-180Published by: Washingtonpost.Newsweek Interactive, LLCStable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/1149117 .

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Global Newsstand

Pro et Contra Summer 1997, Moscow

In an edition focusing on the intersection of business and foreign pol- icy in Russia, economist Jakov Pappe argues that in this decade, a philo- sophical rift has emerged between Russia's gas and oil industries. Claiming one-third of the world's known natural gas reserves and maintaining a payroll of over 350,000 employees, Gazprom-Russia's partially privatized natural gas company-has long been a formidable political and econom- ic force. Pappe suggests that Gazprom is now poised to expand its influ- ence westward, having formulated a clear, West-oriented marketing strategy. However, oil companies such as LUKoil or JUKOs, Pappe observes, still seem to be eyeing international markets without a coherent plan of action. Moreover, these companies see their fates tied almost exclusively to Asia. Pappe concludes that this geographic divergence of interests may pose a serious predicament for Russian diplomacy.

Political analyst Yuri Fedorov notes that until very recently, Russian policy in the Caspian Sea region has lacked any semblance of cohesion, instead manifesting a struggle between two competing schools of thought: the neoimperial "hard line" championed by Russia's old military 6lite and the pragmatic, economically driven policies pursued by the oil companies and some of Prime Minister Victor Chernomyrdin's cabinet members. Since the end of last year, however, signs of a reconciliation have appeared. The ministry of foreign affairs has shown a willingness to com- promise with oil companies. Indeed, instead of concerning itself with the Caspian Sea's legal status, the ministry has realized that control of oil transportation in the region may be an effective way to acquire and exer- cise the regional influence it seeks.

-Marina Pavlova-Silvanskaja

South African Journal of International Affairs Winter 1997, Johannesburg

Vice Admiral R. C. Simpson-Anderson, chief of the South African navy, notes that South Africa is the 12th-largest sea-trading country in the world. Seaborne trade accounts for 55 percent of South Africa's gross domestic product, and an increasing volume of this trade is with Indian

FALL 1997 179

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Global Newsstand

Ocean Rim and Far Eastern countries. However, Simpson-Anderson observes that no fewer than nine navies have significant capacities to operate in the Indian Ocean. Thanks to obsolescence and budget cuts, he argues, South Africa no longer possesses a credible naval presence in this key region.

Simpson-Anderson should take heart from the recent decision by South Africa's cabinet and Parliament to purchase four corvettes: This will restore ocean-going capability to the level he prescribes. He will, however, remain concerned that the government has yet to make the necessary budget allocation or devise a detailed procurement program.

A shorter piece by retired admiral Chris Bennett also addresses naval strategy. Arguing for a fully coordinated maritime policy covering the entire spectrum of maritime affairs, Bennett emphasizes the responsibilities that coastal states have to the international community in the waters that they claim.

As South Africa continues to assert itself politic-ally and militarily on the African continent, Cape Town's strategic posture will come under greater domestic and international scrutiny. Simpson-Anderson's updat- ing of traditional defense policy concerns and Bennett's discussion of mul- tilateral responsibilities both reflect the navy lobby's ongoing determination not to be left behind as South Africa evolves into an increasingly important military presence.

-Alexander Johnston

World Development Summer 1997, Oxford

Rising economic powers seek both to emulate and to distance them- selves from the countries that serve as their models. This love-hate rela- tionship is particularly pronounced if the model happens to be a former colonial power: Witness the exchange between Princeton professor Atul Kohli and Stephen Haggard of the University of California at San Diego, David Kang of Dartmouth University, and Chung-In Moon of Yon Sei University.

Haggard, Kang, and Moon firmly place the roots of Korean success in post-1961 developments. They take issue with Kohli's claim in a 1994 World Development article that although the Japanese colonial experience was ruthless and humiliating for Korea, it nonetheless decisively shaped a

180 FOREIGN POLICY

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