Source: IPCC 1.Reduced Biodiversity (rapid change) 2.Sea level rise and coastal flooding (melting...
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Transcript of Source: IPCC 1.Reduced Biodiversity (rapid change) 2.Sea level rise and coastal flooding (melting...
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Source: IPCC
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Source: IPCC
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1. Reduced Biodiversity (rapid change)
2. Sea level rise and coastal flooding(melting ice and thermal expansion)
3. Expansion of tropical disease range
4. Soil Moisture Decreases and Desertification ?
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5. Increased frequency of heat illness(problem for the elderly)
6. Increased frequency of severe events?
7. Engineering problem of thermokarst(transportation and housing)
8. Affect on outdoor winter recreationand winter tourism
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1. Increasing NPP?2. Increased food production?: CO2
fertilization, range & growing season(depends on soil moisture/depth/nutrients)
3. Increased water-use efficiency4. Increased nutrient-use efficiency?5. High latitude warming
(positive and negative)
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Source: IPCC
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Source: IPCC
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Ice core data
Temperature,CO2 and CH4
are all in phase
Are the gasconcentrationsa cause or aneffect of warming or both ?
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Source: IPCC
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HADCM3 Model Prediction
Global Circulation Model Projection:Non-uniform spatial distribution of global surface temperature increase
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Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE)
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FACE Results:
NPP increases(eg. 40% in cotton; 25%for Sweetgum for 550 ppm vs. 370 ppm)
Carbon sink increase limited for forests: Increase in wood production is short-lived; C goes mainly to fine roots and leaves; affected by soil fertility
No effect on LAI
Stomatal conductance decreases (increased water-useefficiency)
Lower leaf nitrogen concentration: need less or have less?
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Carbon Sinks
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But what are we doing to our sinks ?http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/3609887.stm
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Annual Atmospheric Increase 3.3(±0.2) PgC (billion metric tonnes)Why ?
Emissions from fossil fuels +5.5(±0.5) Changes in land use +1.6(±0.7)Oceanic uptake - 2.0(±0.8)
Missing carbon sink - 1.8(±1.2)
Possible source: Underestimation of terrestrial uptakeMid-latitude forest regrowth ?Will the missing sink last ?
Source: Woods Hole Observatory
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Source: IPCC
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Meanwhile, we are detecting stratospheric cooling !
Why ? Ozone depletionTropospheric [CO2] increases
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Interannual climatic variability atthe global scale
Caused by changing atmospheric andoceanic circulation in the tropicalPacific Ocean
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Top La Nina December 1998; Middle Normal December 1993; Bottom El Nino Dec 1997
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See http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/sst_olr/sst_anim.shtml
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Q. Is there a relationship between the frequency and/or strength of El Nino Southern Oscillation and climatechange ?
A. We don’t know.
However, effects might be exacerbated in a warmer climate (higher sea levels would enhance flooding, precipitation heavierduring enhancement, evaporation greater during drought phases)
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El Nino-related flooding in N. California
Mainly due to shifting winds