Source apportionment for Thessaloniki, Greecea PMF approach and a CAMx approach

Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece

Scientific Responsible: Prof. Melas D.

Poupkou A., Liora N., Karagiannidis A., Markakis K., Giannaros T.

APICE - Final Conference, 8th November 2012, Venice

University of Western Macedonia, Greece

Scientific Responsible: Prof. Bartzis J.

D. Saraga, E. Tolis, K. Filiou

Thessaloniki’s monitoring campaign

PMF results (UOWM)

CAMx results (AUTH)

Discussion

- Main conclusions

- Mitigation Measures in the Future

- Future Emissions

Presentation overview

sampling sites

Thessaloniki city

PORT CITY CENTER (TOWN HALL)

PM2.5 sampling at two sites in Thessaloniki

PORT

CITY CENTER (TOWN HALL)

Monitoring campaign schedule

SCHEDULLED

CANCELLED

NEW DATES

date1st PERIOD PER MONTH 1st PERIOD PER MONTH

6/11 7/118/11 9/11 10/1111/1

112/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12

12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031

date1st PERIOD PER MONTH 1st PERIOD PER MONTH

6/11 7/118/11 9/11 10/1111/1

112/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 4/12 5/12

12345678910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031

1st period: 14/6/2011-21/12/2011

2nd period: 14/2/2012-22/5/2012

322 samples in total

24-hour PM2.5 samples collected on quartz fiber filters using low volume samplers

PAH TRACE ELEMENTS

OC/ECIONIC SPECIES

Source apportionment study for Thessaloniki

PMF model application

results from 1st period

Source apportionment study for Thessaloniki PMF model application

Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) model

a widely used receptor model based on factor analysiswhich provides a flexible modeling approach using a set of data at a receptor site, to indentify the unknown sources and estimate their contribution

2 Selected sites: port & city center (Town hall)

period: selected days from June-July-August & November-December 2011

PMF model analysis for one- year data (June 2011 to May 2012) IN PROGRESS

?

?

?

Samples (n>50) at receptor site

Source 1 Source 2 Source n

Source apportionment by PMF model

Chemical species data used for PMF analysis:

7 (out of 27 measured) PAHs:, Benzo[b]fluoranthene, Benzo[k]fluoranthene, Benzo[e]pyrene, Benzo[a]pyrene, Indeno[cd]pyrene, Dibenzo[a,h]anthracene, Benzo[ghi]perylene. Lighter PAHS were excluded from the analysis because of their volatility

4 (out of 9 measured) ions: NO3-, SO4

2-, Na+, NH4+

Cl- and Na+ were excluded/ set as weak species respectively because of their large analytical errors. K+, Mg+, Ca2+ ions were excluded as their pair elemental species were used in the analysis (to avoid double counting mass)

13 Metals: Pb, Ni, Cu, V, Mn, Cr, Zn, Mg, K, Ti, Fe, Ca, Al

Organic & Elemental carbon: OC, EC.

experience obtained from the “Intercomparison source apportionment analysis on Marseille data " was used

PMF resultsSampling site: Thessaloniki’s port

0

20

40

60

80

100

Be

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en

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NH

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Pb Ni

Cu V

Mn

Cr

Zn

Mg

K

T

i F

e C

a

Al

OC

Ε

C

% c

on

trib

uti

on

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ben

zo[b

]fluo

rant

hene

Ben

zo[k

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rant

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benz

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rene

inde

no[1

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ion

NO

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ionN

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4+ Pb Ni

Cu V

Mn Cr

Zn

Mg K

T

i F

e C

a Al

OC

Ε

C

% c

on

trib

utio

n

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20

40

60

80

100

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-

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Na

+io

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+

Pb Ni

Cu V

Mn

Cr

Zn

Mg

K

Ti

Fe

C

a

Al

OC

Ε

C

% c

on

trib

uti

on

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ben

zo[b

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then

eB

enzo

[k]f

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anth

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inde

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ion

NO

3-io

nSO

42-

ionN

a+io

nNH

4+ Pb Ni

Cu V

Mn

Cr

Zn

Mg K

Ti

Fe

Ca Al

OC

Ε

C

% c

on

trib

uti

on

0

20

40

60

80

100

Be

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[b]fl

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ran

the

ne

Be

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be

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ion

NO

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ion

SO

42

-

ion

Na

+

ion

NH

4+

Pb Ni

Cu V

Mn

Cr

Zn

Mg

K

Ti

Fe

Ca

Al

OC

ΕC

% c

on

trib

uti

on

combustion /central heating

mixed: Vehicles/Anthropogenic

Nitrates/Sulphates

Mixed marine origin: sea

/fuel oil /ships emissions

mineral/industrial

mixed: Crustal/road dust/Incineration?

→ 5 groups of sources identified

PMF results

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

15 /

6/16

/6/2

011

4/7/

2011

5/7/

2011

6/7/

2011

7/7/

2011

8/7/

2011

9/7/

2011

10/7

/201

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/7/2

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/7/2

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/12/

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co

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n Factor 5

Factor 4

Factor 3

Factor 2

Factor 1

Sampling site: Thessaloniki’s port

• combustions/central heating source: elevated during cold period

PMF results Sampling site: Thessaloniki’s city center (Town Hall)→ 4 groups of sources identified

0

20

40

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Mg

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Ti

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Ε

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% c

on

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20

40

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Ben

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Cu V

Mn Cr

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Mg K

T

i F

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a Al

OC

Ε

C

% c

on

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40

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Mn

Cr

Zn

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Ti

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Ε

C

% c

on

trib

uti

on

combustion /central heating

mixed: Crustal/

road dust

mixed: nitrates /sulphates,

anthropogenicIndustrial

Mineral/Industrial

Possibly marine source included

PMF results Sampling site: Thessaloniki’s city center (Town Hall)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

15 /

6/16

/6/2

011

4/7/

2011

5/7/

2011

6/7/

2011

7/7/

2011

8/7/

2011

9/7/

2011

10/7

/201

111

/7/2

011

12/7

/201

113

/7/2

011

14/7

/201

115

/7/2

011

16/7

/201

122

/8/2

011

23/8

/201

124

/8/2

011

1/11

/201

12/

11/2

011

3/11

/201

14/

11/2

011

5/11

/201

16/

11/2

011

7/11

/201

114

/12/

2011

15/1

2/20

1116

/12/

2011

17/1

2/20

1118

/12/

2011

co

ntr

ibu

tio

n Factor 4

Factor 3

Factor 2

Factor 1

• combustions/central heating source: elevated during cold period

• mixed source: nitrates /sulphates, anthropogenic, Industrial/ ships emissions: elevated during warm season

PMF results

PM2.5

marine origin: sea + fuel oil

combustion/ships emissions

22%

mineral/industrial36%crustal/incineratio

n/other9%

combustion15%

mixed: secondary aerosols, vehicles,

anthropogenic18%

Sampling site: Thessaloniki’s port

Sampling site: Thessaloniki’s city center (Town Hall)

For the examined period:

crustal/road dust source + combustions/central heating source: similar contributions to PM2.5 for both sites (appr.30%)

secondary aerosol/vehicles/anthropogenic source contribution: elevated at city center area (51%)

mixed sea origin + fuel combustion/ships emissions

source contribute at the port area

PM2.5

mixed crustal, road dust

23%

mineral, industrial

19%

sulphate/nitrate, anthropogenic,

vehicles (possibly marine source

included)51%

combustion7%

Source apportionment study for Thessaloniki

CAMx model application

Modeling System Set-up

CAMx (version 5.3) simulates the Emission, Dispersion, Chemical reaction and Removal of pollutants in the troposphere on three-dimensional grid(s).

Meteorology from the application of the meteorological model WRF (version 3.2.1)

WRF-CAMx runs for the 2011 SUMMER PERIOD and the winter period 15 NOV TO 15 DEC 2011.

Chemical Boundary Conditions

Gaseous and Particulate Chemical BCs for the Balkan domain taken from the global modeling system IFS-MOZART (within FP7 EU project MACC).

Balkan domain

10km resolution

Thessaloniki domain

2km resolution

Emission Sources and PM Species Apportioned for Thessaloniki

i. Maritime/Harbor activities (e.g. ships, loading/unloading of goods, vehicles/machineries)

ii. Road transportiii. Industriesiv. Central heatingv. Windblown Dust vi. Biogenic NMVOCsvii. Left over sources (e.g. industrial and construction machineries, waste treatment,

agriculture, solvent use, distribution of fuels).Em

issi

on

So

urc

es

i. Sulfate (SO4)ii. Particulate nitrate (NO3)iii. Ammonium (NH4)iv. Secondary organic aerosol (SOA)v. Elemental carbon (EC)vi. Primary organic aerosol (POA)vii. Crustal PMviii. Other PM

PM

sp

ecie

s The pollution transported to Thessaloniki from emission sources OUTSIDE the study domain will NOT be examined in this presentation.

Emission Inventory for the Maritime and Harbor Activities

Emissions (tn/yr) CO NOx SOx NMVOCs NH3 PM10 PM2.5

Passenger ships 60.67 36.80 10.38 12.73 0.009 1.62 1.62

Cargo ships 881.02 7022.23 4537.84 113.92 0.904 220.79 220.79

Tugs 2.13 10.10 0.44 0.39 0.004 0.39 0.39

Inland waterways 26.78 72.87 - 9.58 0.011 7.59 7.15

Fishing Boats 315.75 3738.86 118.28 57.37 1.301 57.72 57.72

Harbor Operations (loading, unloading, pilling)

- - - - - 37.2 5.64

Vehicles operating in the port - - - - - 0.181 0.043

Total 1286.35 10880.86 4666.93 193.99 2.23 325.56 293.36

Most important activities in terms of emissions IN OR NEAR THE PORT: 

PM2.5: Ship Hotelling (Cargo ships).

PM10: In-port Processes (loading, unloading and pilling of goods/materials).

SOx, NOx: Ship Maneuvering (Cargo ships); NOx ship hotelling emissions are comparable.

CO, NMVOCs: Ship Hotelling (Ferries) .

Emissions for the THESSALONIKI STUDY AREA (Reference year 2010)

Source Apportionment for PM10 / PM2.5 Port (Summer 2011)

Road transport: Highest contribution to PM10 and PM2.5 mean concentrations.

Maritime/Harbor activities:

Moderate contribution to PM10 (14%)Small contribution to PM2.5 (6%)

despite the emission contribution being ~35% for PM10 and ~15% for PM2.5.

Con

cent

ratio

ns

Source Apportionment for PM10 / PM2.5 Port (15 Nov – 15 Dec 2011)

Con

cent

ratio

ns

Road transport and Central heating: Equal contribution to PM10 levels (~30%).

Central heating: Highest contribution to PM2.5 levels.

Maritime/Harbor activities: Small contribution to PM10 and PM2.5.

~20% for PM10 emissions ~10% for PM2.5 emissions

Source Apportionment for PM10 / PM2.5 City Hall

The contribution of the Maritime and Harbor activities is very small.

Sum

mer

Win

ter

Maps of % Contribution to Mean PM2.5 Levels (Summer 2011)

BiogenicDustLeft Over

Maritime/Harbor IndustriesRoad Transport

Maritime/ harbor contribution over sea: PM10: up to 50% PM2.5: between 50% to 75%

Maps of % Contribution to Mean PM2.5 Levels (15 Nov - 15 Dec 2011)

Dust BiogenicCentral Heating

Road Transport Maritime Industries Left Over

Maritime/harbor contribution to PM10 and PM2.5 over sea: up to 20%

25

CO NOx SO2 NMVOCs NH3 PM10 PM2.5Passenger ships 35.22% 25.93% -49.42% 33.63% 19.21% -6.06% -6.06%

Cargo ships 29.37% 40.73% -66.56% 40.56% 37.72% -63.92% -63.92%

Inland Waterways 2168.66% 2142.43% - 2152.89% 2152.89% 2163.64% 2141.1%

Fishing boats -35%

Harbour operations (loading, unloading, pilling)

- - - - - 78.01% 77.82%

Total emissions 58.48% 28.80% -65.71% 122.20% 5.82% 9.42% -1.23%

% Difference between present time (2010) and future time (2020) emissions

Maritime/Harbor future emissions were calculated considering both the:

1. Port evolution (e.g. 6th pier extension, construction of a marina) (activity data provided by the Thessaloniki Port Authority SA)

2. Future normative framework according to which the sulfur content in ship fuels should be reduced to 0.50% m/m during cruising mode (sulfur content during maneuvering (in Greece) and hotelling mode is 0.1 % m/m).

With a View to the Future…..

26

Mitigation Measures in the Future

1. Cold ironing (zero ship hotelling emissions).

2. Use of chemical wetting agents to control the storage pile emissions (-90% of piling

emissions).

CO NOx SO2 NMVOCs NH3 PM10 PM2.5

-4.72% -1.46% -1.68% -4.64% 0.01% -23.19% -9.00%

% Changes in maritime/harbor future time emissions due to mitigation measures OVER THE WHOLE STUDY DOMAIN

CO NOx SO2 NMVOCs NH3 PM10 PM2.5

-79.72% -45.60% -15.46% -81.51% 0.00% -49.74% -52.28%

% Changes in maritime/harbor future time emissions due to mitigation measures NEAR and IN THE PORT

PORT CAMx: A) Moderate to small contribution to PM10 (~15%) and PM2.5 (~5%) in summer,

B) Small contribution to PM10 (8%) and PM2.5 (3%) in winter. PMF: contribution to PM2.5 (~22%)

CITY HALL PMF & CAMx: Very small contribution to PM2.5 (<5%) both during summer and winter .

• Existing discrepancies because of: • Two different approaches that identify emission sources that partly match • CAMx Maritime/Harbor sector = Ships + (un)Loading of goods + Vehicles/Machineries

(possible underestimation of emissions)• PMF Marine sector = Ships + Sea Salt (possible overestimation due to the identification

of contribution from sources other than ships) OVER THE SEA (CAMx results)

High contribution in summer: Up to 50% for PM10 and more than 50% (up to 75%) for PM2.5.

Moderate contribution in winter: Up to 20% for PM10 and PM2.5.27

Conclusions – Contribution to PM levels

1. In the year 2020, projected maritime/harbor emissions show:

Small increase in PM10 (~ +10%) Very small decrease in PM2.5 (~ -1.2%) Important decrease in SO2 (~ -65%) Moderate to important increases in CO, NOx, NMVOCs.

2. Mitigation measures like Cold Ironing and the use of Chemical Wetting agents to

control the storage pile emissions are expected to decrease by:

-50% PM10 and PM2.5 emissions in and near the port area

-23% PM10 and -9% PM2.5 over the whole Thessaloniki study domain.

28

Conclusions - Future Emissions