Sound and Sustainable Arctic Shipping

in Response to the Expanding Asian Market

E. Sakai and H. Kitagawa

Ocean Policy Research Foundation

Tokyo

International Conference on Transit Navigation on the Northern Sea Route February 14, 2012, Murmansk

WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION

& POSSIBLE OIL PRICE TREND

coal

hydroelectricity

nuclear energy natural gas

oil

Seaborne trade of energy/mineral

resources will continue to be the

“Prime mover” of arctic shipping.

0,0

200,0

400,0

600,0

800,0

1000,0

1200,0

1400,0

1600,0

1800,0

2000,0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

mill

ion

to

nn

es

oil

eq

uiv

ale

nt

year

Asia Pacific

S&C America

North America

Africa

Europe & Eurasia

Middle East

Liquids Consumption

(BP Statistics 2011)

0,0

200,0

400,0

600,0

800,0

1000,0

1200,0

1400,0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

mill

ion

to

nn

es

eq

uiv

ale

nt

year

Europe & Eurasia

North America

S&C America

Middle East

Africa

Biofuels in Total

Asia Pacific

Natural Gas Consumption

(BP Statistics 2011)

Cargos in Total

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Singapore

Shanghai

Hong Kong

Shenzhen

Busan

Guangzhou

Dubai

Ningbo

Quingdao

Rotterdam

Kaohsiung

Kaohsiung

Container throughput at the major ports, TEUs

(based on UNCTAD 2011)

NSR; An Arterial Sea Way to the Asian Market

Kirkenes/Murmansk

Tomakomai

APEC

Asian Market

（Wikipedia）

0 5000 10000 15000 20000

Vancouver

Vladivostok

Singapore

Hong Kong

Shanghai

Busan

Yokohama

Tomakomai

Via Tsugaru Strait

NM

Sailing Distance from Kirkenes; via NSR, Suez Canal,

Panama Canal and Cape

NSR

to USA

Vladivostok, Nakhodka

to Singapore

to Australia and

New Zealand

Seaborne Network in Asian APEC

via NSR TOMAKOMAI

Airport

Port of Tomakomai in Hokkaido

Cool climate, but not too cold,

Less snowing, free of sea ice,

Less threatened with earthquakes,

Plain, large expandable area,

Facing directly to the North Pacific Ocean,

Close to big city “Sapporo”(market of consumer goods

& durables),

Highway

Port of Tomakomai

Sapporo

JR Railway Spa

Spa

Spa

Close to Chitose

International Airport,

Easy link with highways

and the JR railway,

Abundant tasty water

available,

Spas for recuperation.

0 500 1000 1500 2000

Maersk Line (Denmark)

CMA CGM Group(France)

APL (Singapore)

Hapag-Lloyd Group…

Hanjin (Korea)

MOL (Japan)

Yang Ming (Taiwan)

Hamburg Sud (Germany)

1,000TEUs

World Top 16 Container Operators

(2009)

Maersk Line’s chartered

rate

The structure of the world shipping industry is rapidly changing;

chartering, increasing the role of forwarders. You would be unable to

imagine: Who are responsible performing parties or even persons?

0 5 10 15 20 25

Japanese

Indian

Russian

Tukish

Chinese

Indonesian

Philippian

( X 10,000 )

Number of seamen

Nat

ional

ity

1.2 million in total

(data :MLITTJ, 2008)

On ships for overseas service；of top six nations and Japan

Most of the crew aboard in Arctic shipping would be the persons

who live in a temperate climate and have never seen sea ice nor put

their feet forward in blizzard during their youthful days.

Measures to eliminate or, at least reduce the risks of

accidents and damage to the vulnerable environment

Operators: preferably; International Consortia, International Alliances;

reliable, open and transparent performing parties

Vessels: specially designed ships, strong enough to safely sail in the

sea ice and for crew to enable to minimize human errors

Crew: knowledgeable and well-trained crew (ice-certificate)

Navigation Support: Internationally organized Support Centers

World Wide Navigational Warning Service (hopefully)

SAR: icebreakers (possibly nuclear-powered) with long-range

helicopters, medical appliances, doctors and nurse, etc.

Sailing Mode: in convoy or more than two ice-class vessels closely

sailing on the same route in the Arctic

Mode of Transport: transshipment at mega-hub ports

To respond rapidly increasing seaborne trade to

Asian regions via NSR;

To minimize human errors of crew;

Knowledgeable enough on the Arctic nature and

environment physiology which should be included in the

education curriculum. Training and experience of

navigations in real sea ice waters should be mandatory.

Discrimination between first-, second- and multi-year sea ices

is not easy even for seamen with considerable experience in

icy waters.

Human visibility in driving snow

(Maeno et al, 1996)

Assimilation/Adaptation Ability of Asian Crew to Cold Regions;

Core temperature of human bodies needs to be maintained within a relatively narrow range around

37 ℃ and the temperature depends on several factors: Metabolism and the core temperature;

Regulatory control mechanisms(blood flow, sweating and shivering); Climate(air and radiant

temperatures, humidity and air movement; Clothing; Rate/Type of work; Individual

differences(such as age and gender)

Current Activities on the Arctic Affairs in Japan

Ministry of Foreign Affairs

Diplomatic, for Arctic Council in particular

Ministry of Education, Science, Technology and Sports;

Academic; Arctic Environmental Research Consortium

Arctic Navigation as one of the Sub-programs

Ocean Research Policy Foundation; Arctic Ocean Conference (domestic)

Multidisciplinary; Climate, International Law and Regulations, Security,

Natural Resources, Seaborne Trade, Transport and Technology

INSROP/JANSROP, JANSROP II, Follow-up Reports and Arctic Conference

ClassNK

New Arctic Navigation Guidelines on the basis of the Polar Code (hopefully),

particularly for Asian Seafarers

Others

Weathernews (navigation support), etc.

New Shirase in Antarctic in

2011

Umiak I for Fednav in

Canadian Arctic in 2008,

built in Universal Zosen

(JOGMEC, 2010)

Thank you for your attention

Via

NSR