Know What Changes, What Doesn’t, and What’s Next

@CECILYSOMMERS

Maldives Bioplotter

What Changes

What Doesn’t What’s Next

THE FOUR FORCESWhat Changes

GOVERNANCE

DEMOGRAPHICS

TECHNOLOGY

RESOURCES

THE FUTURE OF RETAIL BANKINGWhat Doesn’t Change

Life is commerce

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Three Themes:

1. Arrival of Big Data, and visualization of it

2. Systems that learn

3.More human, natural interfaces

New toolsWeb 1.0• around information access

and communication. Communication practices fit into two dominant paradigms.

• 1:1 and small group communications: email and IM.

• Public tools like virtual worlds, forums, and chatrooms.

Web 2.0• An information ecology

organized around friends• Friendship-driven public

spaces: “networked publics”

Industrial Revolution

(1771)

Mechanized Labor

Cotton Gin,

Steam and Railways

(1829)

Transportation

Ports, highways, telegraph, postal

service

Age of Steel, Electricity, Heavy

Engineering (1875)

Steel

Paper and packaging, Civil

Engineering

Age of Oil, Automobile, Mass

Production (1908)

Cheap fuels

Petrochemicals, combustion

engines, household electronics, refrigeration

Age of Information and

Telecommunications (1971)

Microprocessor

Computers, software, desktop

publishing, digital

communications, biotechnology, new materials

Energy intensity => Increased Productivity => Distributed Economies Based on the work of Carlota Perez

Author, Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital

“Finance is the driver. Decisions to invest are taken by entrepreneurs, often backed by financial agents. ”

- Carlota Perez

The Role of Banks: Enablers• Personal and business goals

– Guides, training, certification

• Wealth creation– Credit, investment

• Economic engines – Support new models of technical-socio-economic

progress

JP Morgan• 1878: J.P. Morgan funded Edison at the very

beginning of electricity.

• 1908: Rebuffed Henry Ford, “automobiles are rich men’s toys.”

ZONE OF DISCOVERYWhat’s Next

Our memories are the material from which we construct, simulate, elaborate, and predict future events in an ever-changing environment.

Bangkok, Thailnd

“Problems cannot be solved by the same level of thinking that created them.

- Albert Einstein

INSIGHTRequires novelty

5% Rule

Four Forces

Zone of Discovery

5% RULEWhat’s Next

“Everyday I look for a better way. ”

- Jack Welch

EducableScalableWidgetizable

1 Day = 24 min

5 Days = 2 hours

General MillsIdea Greenhouse

• + 5% in net sales for Snacks Division

• 10% market share in grain-cereal bar category

• Adoption of “Core Hours,” 9am-3pm (2011)

“It took the hierarchy out of innovation…lifted up very junior people as thought leaders…”

- Gayle Fuguitt, SVP, Global Consumer Insights

It “succeeded in reframing the thinking throughout the function. Innovation had become the norm. . . . Where we look for inspiration now is much, much broader than consumer segments, retail and food trends, or industry practices. We look to countries, cultures, disciplines, philosophies . . . it makes the insights stronger.”

- Kaia Kegley, Assistant Manager

“Freedom to experiment” ranked low (on Climate Survey). “Now,” he says, “it’s an expectation! We’ve become comfortable with trying things out—just get the idea out there; it doesn’t have to be perfect. Our job is to solve the problem, so experimentation is a valued part of that process.”

- Jon Overlie, Senior Manager

• Four Forces• L-R-L• 5% Rule

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