Some Sunny Tidbits… One square meter of south facing window will produce as

much power as an electric baseboard heater. 10% of the space heating needs of the average Canadian

home is already supplied by solar energy Regina receives more solar energy year-round than Rome The 1st solar heaters in Canada were installed in the 1890s The solar energy falling on 15 km2 of land in southern

Alberta equals the entire power capacity of all the nuclear power plants in Canada

Solar energy is now a $15 billion industry worldwide Solar will be providing 10% of Germany’s peak power

requirements by 2015 (no more coal!)

Turning Ontario’s Roofs into Green Generators

Rob McMonagle – Toronto Atmospheric Fund April 30, 2010

A Roadmap to the next 90 minutes

1. Some solar myths2. Solar technologies

- as different as night and day

3. Toronto and solar4. A little more on

photovoltaics5. Having a FIT over GEGEA

- no its not about having a fit over Lady Gaga

6. Installing solar on roofs - challenges and opportunities

Myth #1: Canada does not have enough sunlight

Canada’s Solar Resource is One of the Best in Industrialized Nations

Toronto Beats out Miami in the Summer

Myth #2: Solar is an expensive energy source

Solar is the Cheapest Energy Source for the Consumer

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Energy Generation Costs (cents/kWh)

PV (current)

PV (by 2015)

Solar Hot Water

Solar Pool

Solar Air Ventilation

Passive

Electricity from Wind

Heat from Nat. Gas

Retail PriceWholesale Cost

Sales are Growing – Prices are Dropping

PV & Electricity Pricing Crossover in Ontario

$0.00

$0.10

$0.20

$0.30

$0.40

$0.50

$/kW

h (

Pea

k T

ime)

Price of Electricity (2% increase - CPI rate)Price of Electricity (5% increase)Price of PV (3% decrease)Price of PV (5% decrease 10 year historical)

Price crossover 2012 - 2018

Daily Power Peak and Solar Energy

Solar Radiation

0

1:00

The price of electricity at peak capacity can be > $0.42 per kWh

Solar Technologies

One energy source but three distinct technologies

Solar Technologies

Passive solar – natural energy flow into a building

Solar Thermal – generation of heat

Photovoltaics – direct creation of electricity

Solar Has Public Support

GPC Research – Public Opinion Poll – Oct 05

Global Renewable Energy

Global Installed Capacity (2001)

69,320

23,000

1,100

- 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000

Photovoltaic

Solar Thermal

Wind

MW

Historic Growth

30%

20%

40%

Solar Thermal Installed Capacity (2001) (Source: IEA)

Note: Israel (457), Austria (205) & Greece (190) not shown

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20

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60

80

100

120

140

CHEAUS

NORJP

NUSA

DNKDEU

SWE

CHIPRT

NLDCAN

NZLFIN

ESP

Wat

ts p

er c

apit

a

16th out of 26 reporting nationsSales are 23% of the international average

Solar Commercial Water Heating

• Only support by the Canada government for solar is for solar thermal commercial & industrial applications (but growing into the residential…)

Solar Domestic Hot Water

Can provide 45% of hot water needs in Toronto

Typical cost is $4,000-$5,000 for average house

Currently 200-300 systems installed per year in Canada – mainly as retrofits

Residential is the largest market for solar – but ignored in Canada until recently

Huge opportunities for growth in this sector

Other Solar Water Heating Applications

Combi Systems– Radiant floor heating– Combining with other heat

sources (earth energy – recharging during the summer)

Building Integrated– Displaces cost of building

structure in new buildings– Cost of solar collectors

comparable to high cost curtain walls

Solar Air Heating

Canada is a world leader in this technology Commercial and industrial applications use a

tremendous amount of “make up air” If integrated into the design of a new building

there is no additional cost

World’s Largest Solar Collector – Bombardier’s Canadair Assembly Plant – Ville St-Laurent, QC

Solar Pool Heating

Average pool takes more energy to heat in the summer than it takes to heat the home in the winter

Average pool costs $3,000 to “solarize”

Average savings =

$1,000 per year

600,000 swimming pools in Canada

PV Installed Capacity

Canada:- 14th of 20 reporting nations- Only 28% of the IEA average (0.28 v.s. 1.0 watts/capita)International growth was 36% in 2003 - Canada growth rate is 20%

Off Grid PV

Remote Homes– 50,000 remote

cabins & cottages powered by solar Canada

Remote PowerFarmers – livestock, water pumpingCanadian Coast Guard was a world leader in using PV

PV on the Grid

This market is only beginning in Canada– 100 home systems

installed per year Biggest market and

the greatest potential More on this later

Toronto’s Interest in Solar energyToronto’s Interest in Solar energy

Toronto is investing in its Renewable Energy Future Solar on municipal buildings

– 28 systems installed so far PV Solar Hot Water Solar Pool Heating Solar Air Heating

Plus other renewable technologies– Geo-energy & Deep Lake Water Cooling– Wind generators (ground mount and on

buildings)

Solar Air Heating

Photovoltaics

Solar Pool Heating

Solar Hot Water

Toronto Solar Neighbourhoods Pilot– the Highest Density of SDHW Systems in Canada

Pilot in 1 ward – Toronto has 44

100 SDHW systems sold– 1 in every 150 homes

(100/15,000) If we did this in all of

Toronto – 4,400 systems sales

National Average Sales in Canada – 400 – 1,000 per year

Photovoltaics – Solar Electricity

The only true electrical generator …[moving us out of the steam engine era]

International Deployment of PV

Source: IEA (www.iea-pvps.org)

78 %Ongrid

Photovoltaics (or PV)

Photovoltaics can be installed:– As part of the building– On the ground– On the roof

Building Integrated Solar PV

Reduces cost by 50 – 100%

Eliminates other building materials

The building becomes the power supply

PV can be comparable in price to high-end glazing and curtain wall materials

Result – modern design, a green statement, and energy savings

Opportunities Galore!

Solar can be added in different parts of the building shell

Curtain Walls

Modules are frameless which make them easy to fit into conventional building encasement systems

Overhead Glazing Architectural elements

can be made functional with the addition of PV glazing

Skylights made from solar modules manage light and reduce energy bills                                     <>

Façade Glazing

Thin Film PV technology is available with varying degrees of translucence – from opaque to transparent– Applied as the front

piece of a glazing system

– So you can see out of them and they produce electricity!

Crystalline Silicon can be laminated between glazing material to form unique patterns

Building Components

Building Components:– awnings– balcony railings

Cost of Façade Products vs. PV Cost of PV is comparable to cost of building

facades Cost of other solar technologies is considerable

less ($/m2 & $/kWt)

Solar Farms and Solar Parks

Challenges with large ground mounted PV– Cost of land– NIMBYism – does it take away farm land?

But why aren’t we complaining about urban sprawl?

Its takes away the primary advantage of PV– Distributed generation– Close to demand –

which eliminates infrastructure costs

However the majority of sales will be on roofs Expereince in Europe is it’s all on the roof

(89%)

The Green Energy and Green Economy (GEGE) Act and Feed-in Tariffs

(FiTs)

Shedding a little light on the situation …

Electricity - We’re Heading for the Perfect Storm

Aging Fleet of Generators– Replacement should have started a decade ago– Most Power Stations take 5-15 years to construct

Aging Distribution System– Replacement should have started a decade ago– Costs are huge (but not talked about)

Energy Demand is Increasing– Air conditioning, increased usage, growing

population Growing Demand for Natural Gas

– Beginning to use NG for thermal and electricity– Our economy is driven by NG

And let’s not forget about climate change

Climate Change will Increase the Number of Hot Days in Toronto

1. A Scan of Climate Change Impacts on Toronto – Clean Air Partnership

Electrical Peaks will Increase

Electricity demand decreases as air temperature rises until the point at which air conditioners kick itSource: Liu 2003 – 1994-2000 Toronto data

Electricity Demand vs Daily Temperature

Air Conditioners in Ontario Ontario has the greatest # of central A/C While more efficient than window units they consume more energy

(whole house vs. single room)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Atlantic Quebec Ontario Prairies BritishColumbia

Mid-Atlantic NewEngland

Households with Air Conditioning in Canada & NE USA

(per 100 households)

Total Central A/C Window - or w all-mounted A/C

Ontario’s Electrical Demand Peaks in the Summer

source: Ontario IESO

PV’s Generation is In Line with Ontario’s Energy Needs

The greater the demand the greater the solar resource

Percentage of Peak Demand

Power Demand PV’s Capacity Factor

98% >24,906 MW 64.3%

95% >24,143 MW 58.6%

90% >22,873 MW 51.9%

All hours 21.9%

It’s About Building a New Economy

New technologies create new opportunities– Britain resisted the trend to electrical power in the

1890s – was one of the last industrialized nations to switch to electrical street lights

– Japan invested in solar to support their troubled electronics industries in the 1990s

– Germany invested in solar to provide jobs in East Germany after reunification

Globally solar is now a $15 billion CDN market and growing 35% annually– Germany and Japan are the major exporters and have

over 50% of the market share In 2025 do we still want to be using the modern

equivalent of coal gas street lighting when every other nation has moved on?

It’s About Jobs

A locally manufactured energy source– Solar Manufacturing is already being done in Ontario

Highest Job Potential of any energy source– Per 1,000 GWh

Nuclear Power – 72 jobs– Recent OPG advertisement: “It costs us over $1million to train

each of our nuclear technicians” – and they’re proud of this? Solar Thermal – 3,960 jobs Job market is local and spread across Canada – relating to

engineering, sales, installation, and manufacturing– Potential job market is huge

Germany – 50,000 workers – fastest growing job market in any industry sector in Germany

Europe – estimated 350,000 full-time jobs by 2030

The Feed-in Tariff Program What is it?

– Allows anyone to generate electricity from renewable energy sources and sell it into the grid.

– You sign a contract with the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) for 20 years

– For PV, the rates are dependent on the system size

FiT Rates for PV

Size Rate ($/kWh)

<10 kW $0.802

10 – 250 kW $0.713

250 – 500 kW $0.635

>500 kW $0.539

< 10 MW ground mount $0.443

How much money will you make?

While the rate ($/kWh) is set the energy output will vary dependent on a number of conditions– Amount of solar radiation (kWh/m2/year of sunshine)– Efficiency of power conditioning equipment and line losses

Note efficiency of PV modules has no impact on output – just on size of array

– Orientation of the solar modules– Shading

Unique attribute of PV is that even partial shade will drop output to 0!

Note: Ontario has no solar access legislation – will the project be shaded by new development in the next 20 years?

Toronto’s experience with PV performanceProject Array Size Angle Directio

nOutput (kWh/kW)

Solar Radiation 1558

PV Potential (75%) 1161

Horse Palace

#1 46 10 20oE 930

#2 46 20 20oE 981

#3 5 0 20oE 976

#4 5 20 20oE 1051

Fire Hall 334

3 25 15oE 1268

Fire Hall 424

1 40 10oW 972

Potential Income for PV Payback will be

dependent on cost of PV system– Great unknown

Toronto experience - $7,000 - $10,000 kW installed– For medium roof

top systems (10-250 kW) = 10 years

Size Rate ($/kWh)

$/kW of PV

<10 kW $0.802 $802

10 – 250 kW

$0.713 $713

250 – 500 kW

$0.635 $635

>500 kW $0.539 $539

< 10 MW ground mount

$0.443 $443

Installing Solar on Roofs

The solution is right over our heads…

PV on Roofs

Will be three configurations– Ballasted – floating– Connection to structural elements– Roofing material

Ballasted Mounts

Connection to a Structure

Roof Material

Roofing material and integrated into roofing membranes

Integrating solar with green roofs High political interest in green

roofs Solar and green roofs are a good

“mix” Solar can shade the plants Green roof can provide the

ballast

Solar Green Roof

Challenge: Just how heavy is that solar system on my roof?

Could this be an actual concern? Items (including solar collectors) on a building

roof need to comply with the Ontario Building Code

Solar on Sloped Roofs

Solar on Flat Roofs

What Types of Solar on Roofs are Problems? PV?

What Types of Solar on Roofs are Problems? PV?

The “Toronto Solution” for residential solar City of Toronto’s Building Department has

developed a simple 3-step methodology to determine if the roof conditions can withstand the structural loading of the renewable energy projects for rafter roofs

Step 1: Product Span Table– As part of the structural drawing a span table

is developed showing the types of roof conditions that the product can be installed on

Step 1: Structural Drawing with Span Table

Toronto Solution - Step 2

Roof inspection report is done showing the conditions of the roof at site of proposed solar installation

Step 3: Verify that roof conditions are greater than product span table

If the roof is composed of 2x8 rafters on 16” spacings then this solar collector can be installed on a maximum rafter span of 3.18 m with no structural alterations

A cautionary tale for the past The market for solar PV in Ontario is

high right now PV module prices worldwide are low

(due to recession) FiT rates right now are lucrative (but

there is a lot of hype on installed prices and performance)

Proceed with caution – experience in the 1980s…

Solar Hot Water Sales in Canada (1970-2003)

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

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1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Co

llect

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Solar Water Heating in Canada and Austria

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

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1999

2001

2003

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llect

or

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a (m

2) Austria

Canada

Austria – with ¼ the population, a smaller solar resource and similar energy costs has 150 Xs the annual sales.

City of TorontoContacts

Rob McMonagle SolarCity Program ManagerToronto Atmospheric Fund

416-393-6371rmcmonagle@tafund.org

Solar Neighbourhoods Information Line

416-393-6370 www.solarneighbourhoods.ca

Solar Permitswww.SolarPermits.ca