Some Forecast Impacts of Toll Increases: The Dulles Toll Road
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Some Impacts of Forecast Toll Increases:
The Dulles Toll RoadTerry Maynard
Reston Citizens Association
Reston 2020 Committee
May 4, 2012
5/4/2012 1
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CDM Smith forecasts one-way Dulles Toll Road tolls will need to increase
nine-fold, more than three-fold in real terms, over the next four decades.
$2.25
$4.50
$6.75
$8.75
$10.75
$12.75
$14.75
$16.75
$18.75
$4.39
$5.82$6.67
$7.24 $7.59 $7.76 $7.79 $7.71
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
$18.00
$20.00
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
2 0 1 8
2 0 2 3
2 0 2 8
2 0 3 3
2 0 3 8
2 0 4 3
2 0 4 8
Forecast Tolls on the Dulles Toll Road, 2012-2050,
Nominal and Real Prices
Forecast Toll Real Toll ($2012 @ 2.5%/yr)
Source: CDM Smith Preliminary Traffic & Revenue Forecast, January 2012
5/4/2012 2
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For regular toll road users, annual toll costs will increase from less than
$1,000 to more than $8,000 annually in nominal and to $3,000 annually
in 2012 dollars over the forecast period.
$1,980
$2,970
$3,850
$4,730
$5,610
$6,490
$7,370
$8,250
$770$942
$2,793$3,033 $3,179 $3,251 $3,263 $3,228
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
$9,000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Annual Toll Cost for Regular Dulles Toll Road User
Toll Costs per Year (44 Work Weeks)
Inflation Adjusted Toll Costs per Year (44 Work Weeks, 2.5%/Yr)
Source: CDM Smith Preliminary Traffic & Revenue Forecast, February 2012
5/4/2012 3
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The added cost of toll road use will consume nearly half of the
gains in real disposable Fairfax County median household income
over the forecast period for regular toll road users.
8.0%
21.3%
1.9%
8.8%48.0%
3.7%
3.1%
3.5%
1.7%
Forecast Share of Spending of Cumulative Real Disposable
Household Income Gains, Fairfax County, 2012-2048,
for Regular Dulles Toll Road Users
Food & Beverage
Housing
Apparel
Transportation
Toll Increases
Medical Care
Recreation
Educ. & Comm.
Other
• A regular toll road user pays the
full toll twice per day, five days
per week, 44 weeks per year.
• US Census ACS estimates Fairfax
median household income in2010 was $103,000.
• Taxes consume 26.6% of HH
income per published sources.
• BLS spending categories and
2/2012 CPI spending shares.
• Income and inflation are
projected to grow at rates of the
last 20 years.
• Inflation (CPI-US) = 2.6%/year
• FC income growth = 2.8%/year.
5/4/2012 4
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While the current cost per mile of Dulles tolls is near the national
average for toll roads of its type, tolls will octuple in nominal terms and
increase 250% in real terms over the forecast period.
$0.31
$0.47
$0.61
$0.74
$0.88
$1.02
$1.16
$1.30
$0.16
$0.18$0.20
$0.23$0.26 $0.30 $0.34
$0.38
$0.00
$0.15
$0.30
$0.45
$0.60
$0.75
$0.90
$1.05
$1.20
$1.35
$1.50
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 7
2 0 2 2
2 0 2 7
2 0 3 2
2 0 3 7
2 0 4 2
2 0 4 7
Dulles Toll Road Cost per Mile, One-Way Full Length,
Nominal & Inflation-Adjusted
Full Length Cost/Mile (Greenway-I495)
Inflation-Adjusted 2012 Full Toll Cost/Mile (2.5%/Yr)
5/4/2012 5
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Forecasts indicated that those unwilling to pay the increasingly
exorbitant tolls will divert to local roads, adding some 30,000 vehicles
per day to already congested streets and highways.
2012 2014 2030
Dulles Toll Road Avg. Daily Traffic 194 162 154
Silver Line Average Weekday Traffic - 70 86
NEW Transit Riders on Silver Line (AWT) - 2 10
Added Daily Local Street Traffic - 30 30
194
162154
-
70
86
- 210
-
30 30
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
T h o u s a n d s o f U
s e r s
Changing Toll Road, Rail,
& Local Street Use
(in 1000s)
--Toll road usage slides with
high tolls and Metrorail arrival.
--Metrorail use generates few
new transit passengers.
--Toll road users divert to local
streets, adding to congestion.
--None of this counts added
local traffic created by new
residents or jobs.
Sources:
--CDM Smith Preliminary Traffic
& Revenue Forecast, 02/2012
--Federal Transit Administration,
Phase 1 Project Monitoring Reports,
5/4/2012 6