SOLVING THE CRISIS WITH PUBLIC SPENDINGS A crisis full of ... · Schumpeter: managers not...

SOLVING THE CRISIS WITH PUBLIC SPENDINGS HOW MARKET-BASED INSTRUMENTS CAN HELP

(Or: Blue Eyes, Green Keynes )

Green Budget Europe, Kings College London, 17. Juli 2 009Dr. Anselm Görres – Vorsitzender FÖS e.V.

© Dr. Görres – www.foes.de Mai 2009 FÖS- Jahrestagung 2009 – Bild 2GBG

A crisis full of curiosities

• Angela‘s favourite joke or: Welcome, compañero Bush!

• White men with blue eyes– Lula now a racist?

• Home Alone – or: Lost in New York (without parents –without enemies)

• Government is the problem• Rivals of Capitalism: No one

in sight!• Every month a new name!The truth is: it’s not a single, but

a multiple crisis


US real estate and financial crisis – world economic crisis No 2 – social crisis – sustainability crisis – elite crisis

Weltwirtschafts-und Sozialkrise

Globale Nach-haltigkeitskrise

Krise der Elite� What name will it have in six

months?

� Fast career : From US-sub prime-crisis – international financial crisis etc. – to second world economic crisis

� Worldwide social crisis with poverty, unemployment and starving

� Climate and sustainability crisis� ... and as a result: elite crisis

FINANCE CRISIS


At the bottom of Climate Crisis and Financial Crisi s we find the same recipe for disaster

Protagonists greedy for money,

comfort, wealth and waste

NeoLibs and Neo-Cons favoring

weak regulation and laissez-faire

And, of course: Ignorance joining indifference in the

general public

Ronald Coase*

Gordon Gecko Don’t watch, listen or speak!

* http://www.foes.de/de/downloads/studien/CoaseCurse08+SBs.pdf


Reagan and Thatcher: successful sellers of plausible, advantage pledging fairy-tales

GOOD NEWS FOR THE WEALTHY

BAD NEWS FOR SOCIETY, THE POOR,AND NATURE

The Laffer Curve and other laughs:

Steuernsenken hilft immer und allen!

Supply Side: Endlich sorgt sich die Regierung mal um die Anbieter!

Adam Smith verkehrt: Wenn jeder an sich denkt, ist an alle gedacht!

Thatcher Revolution: There is no such thing as society!

Coase Theorem: Umweltprob-leme lösbar, ganz ohne Staat!

Sozialreform: Welfare only for the truly needy!

Trickle down: Am Ende landet alles auch ganz unten

wie bei Sterntaler!


After 30 years of Voodoo Economics there is a different situation...


What‘s good for General Motors (and Wall Street) is good for the United States?

• It wasn‘t good for GM...• It wasn‘t good for Wall Street...• It wasn‘t good for the United States...• ... in fact it wasn’t good for anybody!In the car and bank land USA:the car industry and banks crashed

down!


Trivial but true: No crisis without failing of the elites

• White men with blue eyes?– by all means: mostly city slickers!

• Now: camouflage in jeans• SZ 25. Mai 2009: managers suffer

- 87% no more role ideal- 60% high pressure for justification

• Dibelius: more humility needed• Camdessus: Ethical desasterNachhaltigkeit und Langfristdenken= ökonomische/ soziologischeRechtfertigung der Eliten (Ota Sik)!


Von der alten, ökonomischen Elite ist bisher (noch) nicht allzu viel zu erwarten

� Unterschied von betriebs-und volkswirtschaftlicherSanierung nicht verstanden!

� Schumpeter: managers not interessted in no money knowledge

� Staats- und regulierungsfeindlicherNeoliberalismus noch weit verbreitet

� competition: Only good for the others� Verhunzter Adam Smith: Dann freilich

wär' der Eigennützigste der Klügste(Nathan/Lessing)

� Climate crisis: managers more often part of the problem than of the solution


German managers haven‘t been the best example even before the crisis...

MANLidl, Schlecker

VIELE WEITERE

XPost

XVW

X?

X

X

Data abuse

XXSiemens

?Dt. Bank

XXDt. Bahn

XTelekom

Bribe consum

ers

Media manipul

ation

Spy on colleag

ues

Grease workers hands

Tax evasion

Piech und Pierer –Arbeiterschmierer?


So...

• ... the old saying “every crisis is a chance”...

• ... and the failure of the old economic experts...

• .... perhaps lead to a new chance?

For example to a chance foran eco-social marketeconomy?And a new Green Deal withGreen financing?


If we are lucky the crisis spares us the climate cr isis

Failure of the economic elites

economic, social, environmental

crisis

Green Keynes-ianism as part of

the solution

Greener und fairer

capitalism

Voodoo Econo-mics, Reagan Re-

volution

climate catastrophe and

starving

Return to Status quo in vain

Eco-SocialMarket

You are

here


So let us take a step forward

AWAY FROM

� CHEAP MONEY

� CHEAP ENERGY

� WEAK REGULATION

� CAPITALISM OF GREED & WASTE

MOVE TO� HONEST PRICES� INTELLIGENT &

MARKET BASED REGULATION

� GREEN KEYNES� ECO-SOCIAL

CAPITALISM


Green Deal: Is Green Keynesianism the solution?

• Today: three trillion $US in worldwide stimulus programmes (= 6-7% of World-GDP, 54 trillions)

• Only a few with Green Impact (see HSBC: South Korea 68% - China 34% - USA 16% - EU 14% - Ger13%?)

• If pyramids, please green ones! • Lesson from the 30s: comprehensive

social mission required!Not only Germany will get further stimulus packages!


GBG: Neither prophet nor SVR –but: think before you act

� If a third stimulus package: please greener and sophisticated

� Process of the crisis???� Stimulus package I and II:

first denied , than too fast� Not enough Green elements!

(South Korea 67%, China 34%, USA 16%, Ger only ca. 13% )

� For Example car-scrap bonus: keynes good, economically bad

� God news from stocks, but not at all from labour markets!


Investments in human capital, education, resources and new houses, factories, traffic systems...

• Human services for children, youth, old, week, all

• reduce the saving rates of households

• more free-time – art – nature• New techniques, processes,

materials• Other cars, homes, streets..• Transformation of whole

countries, of the whole planet!... endless jobs!

GRÜNE PYRAMIDEN


Green Keynesianism does make sense –but please with green counter financing!

• Suggestion of Green Deals is easy...• ...but who asks for the counter financing? • Higher taxes on labour, income,

consumption, earnings?• DIW-Zimmermann: rise value-added tax

to 25%!• dues on capital or financial transactions... but: why not charging energy und

perverse subsidies?... and finance green spending with

green revenues?


As one result: We as GBG have to rethink

• For example for another relation of conveyance and demand...(why should we always be the bad guys?)....

• ... or a brand new definition of double dividend...

• with much more instruments and applications!

... and as a result with a new phase in thinking about eco-taxes and other market-based instruments!


New priorities and double dividend

− Umkehr der Reihenfolge: Ausgaben vor Einnahmen

− Umkehr der Begründung: Fiskaleffekt vor Umweltvorteil

− Viele grüne Fiskalerträge− Vielzahl grüner Signale− Vielzahl von Verwendungen

− Lenkungs- und Fis-kaleffekt Ökosteuer

− 250.000 Jobs in D

Doppelte Divi-dende

− Grüne Gegenfinanzierung durch alle ökofiskalischen Instrumente – von ÖSR über Subventionsreform bis EH

− Senkung Sozialbeiträge− Abbau Staatsverschuldung− Grüne Projekte/Ökobonus

− Senkung Rentenbeiträge

Vorrang Verwen-dungen

− Grüne Beschaffung− Grüne Wechselprämien − Vorangekündigte ÖSR− Abbau perverser Subventio-

nen, z.B. Dienstwagensteuer− Jobs durch grüne Regulierung

− ÖSR− Emissionshandel− Abbau perverser Subventio-

nen, z.B. Pendlerpauschale− Grüne Subventionen (EEG)− Ökosteuer (ÖSR)

VorrangInstru-mente

“Grünere Ausgaben, grünere Einnahmen”

“Alle Instrumente, alle Verwendungen“

„Tax bads, not goods“

Parole

Grüner Keynesianismus mitgrüner Gegenfinanzierung

Ökologische FinanzreformAnfang 2000 (ÖFR)

Ökolog. Steuerreform 70-90er

Jahre (ÖSR)


Free-market environmental policy at times of the crisis: more instruments, more applications

� Crisis holds brand new and extra possibilities!

� New instruments, new priorities� In der Argumentation kommen

Ausgaben vor Einnahmen, Fiskaleffekt vor Umweltwirkung

� New instruments like green change boni

� second-best solutions ok, like green VAT...

� ... or jobs by regulation

REGULIERUNG

ÖKOSTEUERN

EMISSIONSHANDEL

GRÜNE SUBVENTIONEN

GREEN PUBLIC PURCHASING

GREEN KEYNESIANISM + GREEN FINANCING

PERVERSE SUBVENTINOEN


So, do you know who will be the first and the best?

� ... therefore mostly white men and women with blue, green etc. eyes!

� People worldwide – because no party, no country, no continent will make it alone!

� But we as Europeans can be a forerunner...

� ... we have, what’s needed....

� ... ambitious aims, enough knowledge and good NGOs...


The white man‘s new burden: From a racist excuse for colonialism to compensation

Eco-SocialMarket


We are looking forward to interesting discussions.. .

• ... about heat and economy, boom and traffic...

• ... about Jos Delbeke, Adam Smith and emission trading

• ... about our work in the last year in Germany, Europe or worldwide...

... and all this prepared at best by our team from the Seestraße!

Thankyou !


Something calming at the end:After the crisis everything will change. Promise!� Die Ökonomen verherrlichen nicht länger Eigennutz und

Kurzsichtigkeit. Mit Managern lesen sie nun abends Adam Smith, John Stewart Mill, David Ricardo und Karl Marx.

� Obama versöhnt uns alle: Links + rechts, arm + reich, Nord + Süd, ja sogar Israel + Palästina und Männer + Frauen.

� Die FAZ schreibt Lobeshymnen über das FÖS und die ÖSR.� Die FDP wird zur Partei der sozialen und ökologischen

Marktwirtschaft.� Die SPD wird zur Partei der sozialen und ökologischen

Marktwirtschaft. CSU und CDU und LINKE natürlich auch. � Und sogar die lieben Grünen treten nun wieder beherzt und

offen für die Ökosteuer ein.


If you want to read more (in German) ...

www.foes.de/themen/gruener-keynesianismus/


... and, of course, in English


Green Budget Germany (GBG)� NGO, founded Nov. 1994, Members welcome!

� Commitment to Market based Instruments (MBI)

� Ecological Fiscal Reform (Green Budget)• More Ecological Tax reform (ETR)!• More emission trading (ETS)! • Subsidies: more positive / less perverse! (EHS)• and other market bases instruments

� Target groups: economy, science and politics

� Books, articles and Newsletter in English: GreenBudgetNewsGreen Budget Germany

Seestraße 116 • D-13353 BerlinFon +49-30-510-530-80, Fax -79

[email protected]; www.foes.de;


About the author

� Dr. Anselm Görres, born 1952, Economist, 1984 to 1991 ManagementConsultant with McKinsey & Co., 1991 to 1994 Investor in East-Berlin. Since 1996 Managing Director of ZMM Zeitmanager München GmbH in Munich.

� ZMM (www.zmm.de) is one of Germany’s leading Interim Management providers and is specialised on Bridging of vacancies on every management level, management of demanding projects, and comprehensive and experienced restructuring (Rent a Manager).

� Since 1977 advocate of an ecological tax reform � 1994 Co-Founder, since 2000 President of Green

Budget Germany, Forum Ökologisch-Soziale Marktwirtschaft (FÖS)

� Author of numerous publications, main author of FÖS-Green Book for Green Tax Reforms

SOLVING THE CRISIS WITH PUBLIC SPENDINGS A crisis full of ... · Schumpeter: managers not...

Documents

Transcript of SOLVING THE CRISIS WITH PUBLIC SPENDINGS A crisis full of ... · Schumpeter: managers not...