Solid take-up volume in Q1 2016 - JLL België TAKE-UP VOLUME IN Q1 2016 ... 2016 1 Willebroek...
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Logistics Property in Belgium Solid take-up volume in Q1 2016 Quarterly Market Update - Pulse - May 2016 Take-up : 215,500 sq.m. in Q1 2016, almost triple the volume recorded in Q1 2015. € 10.1mln invested in Q1 2016; lack of product impacts volumes. Prime rent : € 55/sq.m./year. Prime rent forecast to remain stable. € Prime yield : 6.5%. Trend remains downward. Liège, DL Trilogiport - 150,000 sq.m. logistics development
Transcript of Solid take-up volume in Q1 2016 - JLL België TAKE-UP VOLUME IN Q1 2016 ... 2016 1 Willebroek...
1 / pulse | BELGIAN LOGISTICS MARKET | MAY 2016
Logistics Property in BelgiumSolid take-up volume in Q1 2016
Quarterly Market Update - Pulse - May 2016
Take-up : 215,500 sq.m. in Q1 2016, almost triple the volume recorded in Q1 2015.
€ 10.1mln invested in Q1 2016; lack of product impacts volumes.
Prime rent : € 55/sq.m./year. Prime rent forecast to remain stable.€ Prime yield : 6.5%.
Trend remains downward.
Liège, DL Trilogiport - 150,000 sq.m. logistics development
www.jll.be 2 / pulse | BELGIAN LOGISTICS MARKET | MAY 2016
Occupier market Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Change 12 Month outlook
Take-up LTM* (‘000 sq.m.) 483 497 3%
Take-up current qtr (‘000 sq.m.) 114 215 88%
Prime Rent (€/sq.m./year) 55 55 -
Investment volume LTM* (MEUR) 295 161 -45%
Investment volume c qtr (MEUR) 96 10.1 -89%
Prime Yield (%) 6.5% 6.5% -
Key Market Indicators
*LTM : last twelve months
“The logistics market performed under average in 2015, but with current levels of demand and the growing e-commerce business, take-up levels in 2016 are expected to rise again.ˮ
WALTER GOOSSENS, HEAD OF INDUSTRIAL AGENCY
Brussels
Wavre
Lummen
GeelLier
Mechelen
Aalst
Boom
St-Niklaas
OostendeBrugge
Zeebrugge
Zaventem
Turnhout
Meer
Genk
Tongeren
Nivelles
La Louvière
Neufchâteau
Arlon
Namur
HasseltLeuven
Mons
Kortrijk
Antwerpen
Gent
Charleroi
Liège
The Netherlands
France
Germany
Luxembourg
North Sea
Airport
Main Sea Ports
Main Inland Ports
Motorway
Characteristics :
USE : Logistic schemes and Distribution Center
BUILDING TYPE : Minimum 5,000 sq.m., numerous loading docks (minimum 1/1000 sq.m.), minimum height of 8 m, office area <10% of total built area, good access to motorways.
GEOGRAPHIC SPREAD : Belgium has 4 main logistics axes :
Brussels
Wavre
Lummen
GeelLier
Mechelen
Aalst
Boom
St-Niklaas
Oostende Brugge
Zeebrugge
Zaventem
Turnhout
Genk
Tongeren
Nivelles
La Louvière
Neufchateau
Arlon
Namur
Hasselt
Mons
Kortrijk
Antwerpen
Gent
Charleroi
LiègeE42
E42
E429
E403
E314
E313
E34
E314
E40
E40
E17
N49
E17
E411
E19
A12
E19
E411
E25Airport
Main Seaports
Main Inland Port
Motorways
Main Railways
Main Rivers and Canals
Golden triangle
Airport
Main Seaports
Main Inland Port
Motorways
www.jll.be 3 / pulse | BELGIAN LOGISTICS MARKET | MAY 2016
SOLID TAKE-UP VOLUME IN Q1 2016
A total of 215,500 sq.m. was taken up in Q1 2016, almost triple the volume registered in Q1 2015, and the highest quarterly volume since end 2013. Logistics take-up seems to recover from a modest year 2015.
The highest volume was recorded on the E313 axis, 81,400 sq.m., including the largest transaction of the year so far : a build-to-suit project for Casa International in Olen (50,000 sq.m.). Other large transactions were registered in the Port of Antwerp (left bank), where 32,000 sq.m. were developed for ACS, and a 25,000 sq.m. project for Delhaize in Ninove. In April, a turn-key project of 51,500 sq.m. was pre-let in Antwerp East Port.
MORE LARGE TRANSACTIONS
13 transactions were registered in the first quarter, slightly above the 5-y average of #12. The average size of a transaction was 30% up on the 5-year average in the period 2011-2015. With already 7 transactions above 20,000 sq.m. as at end April against an annual average of 10 in the past five year, the market performance in 2016 will largely exceed its modest performance of 2015.
HIGH DEVELOPMENT VOLUME IN 2016, BUT NO SPECULATION
Just over 35,000 sq.m. were delivered in Q1, rising to 80,000 sq.m. at end April. Apart from 10,000 sq.m. delivered speculatively in the Antwerp East Port project, all projects were non-speculative. In addition, another 450,000 sq.m. is under construction non-speculatively throughout Belgium for completion in 2016 and 145,000 sq.m. are under way for delivery in 2017. The volume delivered in 2016 will be 67% in excess of the the 5-year average, which stands at 319,000 sq.m. The three largest projects under construction are on the E313 axis : Mobis Parts in Beringen (55,000 sq.m.), 51,500 sq.m. in Antwerp East Port and 50,000 sq.m. for Casa International in Olen.
TAKE-UP VOLUMES PER AXIS
Occupier market
HIGH #TRANSACTIONS IN Q1 2016
0
300.000
600.000
900.000
1.200.000
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Q1
20
16
sq.m.
Antwerp-Brussels Antwerp-Ghent E313
Walloon Axis Other Belgium 10-yr Ave
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015 Q1 2016
29 3123
17
2
1 1
15
2
912
6 7
4
84
63
1
58
78
4
#
Antwerp-Brussels Antwerp-Ghent E313 Walloon axis Other
Source all charts : JLL
COMPLETIONS AND FUTURE SUPPLY
318.885
- 50.000
100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 350.000 400.000 450.000 500.000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Q12016
2017e
sq.m.
Completions FS Spec FS Non-Spec 5-y Average
www.jll.be 4 / pulse | BELGIAN LOGISTICS MARKET | MAY 2016
55
45 43
40
45
50
55
60
Q4 11 Q4 12 Q4 13 Q4 14 Q4 15 Q1 16
€/sqm p.a.
Antwerp-Brussels Antwerp-GhentE313 Walloon Axis
PRIME RENTS BY AXIS
Source all Charts: JLL
PRIME RENTS FLAT AT € 55/SQ.M./YEAR SINCE 2012
The prime rent for logistics property in Belgium remained flat at between €48 and €55/m² per year. It applies to the Brussels periphery. The cheap financing of projects and the low yields enable rents to remain flat, particularly in long-term leases. Looking forward, the prime rent is expected to remain stable in the near future, except in prime locations where scarcity of product puts upward pressure on rents.
In the Antwerp region, the prime rent ranges from €43 to €48 per sq.m./year. The prime rent on the Antwerp-Ghent axis and on the E313 is between €40 and €45 per sq.m./year. On the Walloon axis and in Ghent prime rents vary from €36 to €43 per sq.m./year. Secondary logistics rents remain approx. 15% lower.
YEAR QTR CITY REGION LOG ADDRESS WAREHOUSE m² TYPE OCCUPIER
2016 1 Olen E313 Domuslaan 50,000 Owner Occup Casa International
2016 1 Beveren E313 St-Antoniusweg 179 42,000 Owner Occup ACS
2016 1 Ninove Other DC Delhaize 36,500 Letting Delhaize
2016 1 Opglabbeek Antwerp-Brussels Logistieke Campus 29,000 Letting Covidien
2016 1 Willebroek Antwerp-Brussels Kersdonk Logistics 21,165 Letting DHL
2016 1 Puurs Antwerp-Brussels Koning Leopoldlaan 21,000 Letting Delhaize
2016 1 Waregem Other Brabantstraat 15 12,000 Owner Occup TVH
2016 1 Bornem Antwerp-Brussels Bornem DC 1 & 2 11,300 Letting VRD Logistiek
LARGEST OCCUPIER MARKET TRANSACTIONS Q1 2016
MOBIS PARTS, 58,000 sq.m. project in Beringen
www.jll.be 5 / pulse | BELGIAN LOGISTICS MARKET | MAY 2016
LARGEST INVESTMENT TRANSACTIONS 2016
YEAR QTR CITY ADDRESS WHm²
PriceMEUR
YIELD% SELLER BUYER TYPE
2016 2 Willebroek De Hulst - Federal Mogul 29,000 9.1 7.5 MG Real Estate Montea Investment
2016 1 Turnhout Bremheide 10 14,250 5.5 Trans-O-Flex Private Investment
2016 1 Bornem Beherman46,000 (land) 4.6 - Beherman
Invest NV Montea Development
RECORD VOLUME INVESTED IN LOGISTICS IN 2015
10.1 MEUR were invested in logistics in Q1 2016, in 2 transactions, rising to 19.2 MEUR as at today. The market suffers from a lack of product which compresses transaction volumes.
Largest logistics transaction was the sale of the Transoflex site in Turnhout on the E313 axis (5.5MEUR), followed by the sale of the Beherman site in Bornem to B-REIT Montea, a redevelopment project. In April B-REIT Montea acquired the build-to-suit project by MG Real Estate for Federal Mogul in Willebroek for 9.1 MEUR. Sellers and buyers were Belgian, either private investors, B-REIT or property companies.
The prime yield for logistics properties on conventional lease terms remained stable at 6.5%. The prime yield remains under downward pressure given the lack of prime product and the appetite from both national and international investors for this asset class. We may see yields trend toward 6% by year-end.
Investment marketLOGISTICS INVESTMENT VOLUME
227
118 98153
295
10
178
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q411
Q412
Q413
Q414
Q415
Q116
€ mln
Volume MEUR 5-Y Ave
Source all Charts: JLL
«Investors’ appetite for this asset class remains high, both from
local and international parties, but there is a lack of product.»
JEAN-PHILIP VRONINKSHEAD OF CAPITAL MARKETS
6 / pulse | BELGIAN LOGISTICS MARKET | MAY 2016
JLL Contacts
JEAN-PHILIP VRONINKS (*)HEAD OF CAPITAL MARKETS - BELUX+32 (0) 2 550 26 [email protected]
WALTER GOOSSENSHEAD OF INDUSTRIAL LEASING - BELGIUM+32 (0)2 550 25 [email protected]
PIERRE-PAUL VERELSTHEAD OF RESEARCH - BELUX+32 (0) 2 550 25 [email protected](*
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