Solent Local Industrial Strategy Workshop · 2020-07-22 · • We want the Solent to be the best...
Transcript of Solent Local Industrial Strategy Workshop · 2020-07-22 · • We want the Solent to be the best...
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Solent Careers Summit Summer Term
10 July 2020
Siobhan Flynn, Local Growth Programme Manager, Solent LEP
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The Solent • Most urbanised area in southern England outside
London
• 2 coastal cities of Portsmouth and Southampton
• Nearly 350 miles of coastline – a world class
environment
• Three islands and three peninsulas present
unique challenges and opportunities that that
influence economic growth
• Three world class Universities and global
research assets
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• We want the Solent to be the best place to live, work and trade in the UK. Our vision is thatthe Solent in 2050 will be:• At the helm of coastal renaissance and pioneering approaches to mitigating climate
change• Our mission to achieve this vision has five emerging principles:
• To secure our position as the number one economy for maritime.• To become an engine for pioneering approaches to climate change adaptation - and
there is an opportunity to build real expertise in this area that other regions – nationallyand globally – can learn from.
• To be the UK’s capital for coastal renaissance, harnessing new technologies andapproaches to revitalise coastal communities and ensure growth is inclusive.
• To have one of the UK’s most thriving coastal visitor economy, capitalising on theSolent’s superb natural beauty and rich maritime history.
• To be a global leader in developing people for the economy of the future, helpingpeople at all points of their career build the skills they need to take part in an innovativeknowledge-based economy.
2050
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Skills Advisory Panels
• Bring together local employers and skills providers to pool knowledge on skills and labourmarket needs, including informing / supporting the provision of T levels.
• Understand & address key local challenges - current and future opportunities;
• Support analysis of their local skills and labour markets to understand the local position; gaps sufficiency, pipeline;
• Support colleges, universities and other providers deliver the skills required by employers, now and in the future;
• Strong local governance, advisory to LEP Board on skill priorities & how these will be met through local provision over time;
• Support strong Local Industrial Strategies;
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• Chaired by the LEP Private sector Board member with lead for skills.
• Consist of up to 20 members
• 7 other private sector representatives.
• Local Authorities,
• Further Education, Higher Education, & Private Training Provider
• Community and Voluntary sector representative
• One Employment Specialist - DWP / JCP
• One pre-16 representative
• One Royal Navy representative
Skills Advisory Panels
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Solent Economy
• The structure of Solent’s economy has changed substantially over the past three decades, employment has continued to shift towards private services such as professional, scientific & technical activities.
• Manufacturing employment has been declining but manufacturing remains one of the most important industrial sectors across Solent.
• Solent is home to a number of smaller and future key growth sectors such as high-technology manufacturing, marine & maritime, the visitor economy and transportation & logistics. The maritime sector alone creates 152,000 jobs and as such is a substantial contributor to the economy.
• Demography, globalisation, competition, and technological change are some of the most important drivers behind the changing the pattern of demand for employment and skills in Solent
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• Sluggish growth since the recession but strong in 2017
• Relatively strong business growth driven by micro businesses
• Productivity and median wages below national average
Productivity*
£52,000 per job
£34.7 per hour
0.8% growth since 2009
SE - 2.1% & UK 1.9%3.1% below UK average
1.2% above UK average
2.1% p.a. since
recession- but mostly
micro business growth
Earnings
£23,600 workplace
£23,200 resident
1.5% below UK average
3.5% below UK average
Source: ONS (2019), *estimate based on the ‘old’ LEP geography
Economic Output
£30.1 bn in 2018
Businesses
42,000 in 2019
Economic Overview
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Economic Activity
610,000 in 2019
79.1%
0.4% p.a. since 2004
< UK/South East
above UK average
gap with South East
Above UK average
gap with South East
Jobs
610,000 in 2017
0.78 per resident
job density gap with
UK/South East
Source: ONS (2019)
Workforce
770,500 in 2019
Employment
587,800 in 2019
76.3%
• Large workforce but projected to decrease
• Labour market outcomes generally compare favourably with the national average
• High levels of labour market self-containment
Labour Market Overview
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Intermediate
154,000, 20% (L3)
129,000, 16.8% (L2)
strong growth but
gap with both UK/SE
higher proportion and
faster growth than in
UK/SE
higher proportion
than in UK/SE
Low skilled142,000, 18.5%
No skills42,000, 5.4%
Lower proportion of
unskilled than in UK/SE
Source: ONS (2019)
High skills (L4+)
274,000
35.8%
Apprenticeships
26,400
3.4%
• Rising proportion of people educated to a degree or higher qualification
• Above average concentration of upper & lower intermediate skills
• Above average concentration of low skilled but relatively few with no qualification
Skills Overview
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Marine and Maritime
Autonomy and Robotics
Advanced Manufacturing
Priority Sectors
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Transport & Global Logistics
Defence
Visitor Economy
02392 603 650
Priority Sectors
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Aerospace
Life Sciences and Health
Low Carbon
Creative & Digital
Priority Sectors
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Changing occupational demand 1981-2036
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Total Vacancies in the Solent 2017 by Industry
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Source: CE (2019) LEFM Model of the Solent Economy
• Based on net Job openings of approximately 240,000
Projected Skills Demand 2019-2028
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• Expansion demand is one source of jobs & skills demand
• Much of future demand for skills will come from replacement demand
• Positive net requirement across all occupations (industries)
-20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000
Managers and senior officials
Professional occupations
Associate professional and technical
Administrative clerical & secretarial
Skilled trades occupations
Personal service occupations
Sales and customer service
Process plant & machine operators
Elementary occupationsex pansion demand
replacement demandSource: CE/IER (2019)
2018-2028
Jobs demand - SLEPJobs demand by occupation - SLEP
0
100
200
300
400
500
2018-2028 2018-2036
expansion
replacement
thou
sand
Expansion and Replacement Demand by Occupation
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• Impact of technological change on both jobs and future skills requirement –
• 10% grow 70% change 20% shrink
• The case for continuing professional development and lifelong learning
Impact of Technological Progress on Skills
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• Judgement and Decision Making
• Fluency of Ideas
• Active Learning
• Systems Evaluation
• Originality
• Learning Strategies
• Deductive Reasoning
• Complex Problem Solving
Changing pattern of skills demand (occupational data)
Source: Emsi (2019)Source: Nesta (2018)
Skills most likely to be in greater demand up to 2030
Changing patterns of Skills Demand for Soft Skills
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• Balanced economy – with strengths in marine & maritime industries , high-tech
manufacturing, visitor economy, transport & logistics.
• Employment continued to grow across all sectors – indicating adaptation to
changing job/ skills requirements
• Some areas within Solent less resilient & over reliant on few key sectors.
• GVA & productivity challenge – boosting productivity in under-performing
sectors & well as encouraging high performing / growth sectors, & latent
workforce capacity.
• Lower than average wages – affordability issues & graduate talent retention
• Significant skills gaps - potential drag on economy
• Labour market self-containment & ageing workforce
Summary
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Local Skills and labour Market Evidence Base
• https://solentlep.org.uk/media/3114/solent-lep-skills-and-
local-labour-market-report-june-2020-final.pdf
• https://solentlep.org.uk/media/3115/solent-lep-skills-and-
local-labour-market-report-executive-summary-june-2020-
final.pdf
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• Worst case scenario loss of nearly £11 billion to economy
• The Solent's gateway economy could feel the impact of the closure of global economies more than most
• 46,265 people across the Solent are claiming Universal Credit. An increase of 30,520 on the same period last year.
• The Coronavirus Job Retention Scheme (CJRS) 134,600 workers are currently furloughed, with the two cities making up the largest cohorts, equal to 23% of the workforce
• 85% fall in apprenticeship vacancies for June
Coivd-19 Impact
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Covid 19 Impact on Jobs
• At Risk • Accommodation & food • Arts and Entertainment & more broadly
the visitor economy • Cruise industry • Air and public transport • Retail
• Growth • Health and pharmaceutical • Courier pick-up
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• Interim Skills Action Plan – as part of the Economic Recovery Plan
• Local Skills Report
• Align with government initiatives• cash incentives for apprenticeships; • new money and greater scope for Traineeships; • new Kickstart scheme to provide temporary work placements for
young people who would otherwise be unemployed
Next Steps