SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

1

European Status of PV Solar ElectricityTechnology and Market

Dr. Winfried Hoffmann

Chairman of the Management Board of SCHOTT Solar GmbHMember of the Board of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA) and the German Solar Industry Association (BSi) and member of the Scientific Board of FhG-ISE and ISFH

SCHOTT Solar GmbH • Carl-Zeiss-Strasse 4 • 63755 Alzenau, GermanyPhone: +49 (0)6023 91-1710 • Fax: +49 (0)6023 91-1729 email: winfried.hoffmann@schott.com • www.schott.com/solar

Semicon Japan 2005, Tokyo December 9th, 2005

2

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

Preamble

Europe has, like Japan, defined PV solar electricity as one

of the most important future key technologies. In order to

enable the production industry to develop competitively,

market support programs were encouraged in the EU

member states. This, however, will only be supported as

long as a strong EU based production industry in harmony

with the market size can be established. The industry from

the most important world economy regions (Japan, Europe,

US, SEA) should proactively secure their local market

developments in correspondence with the respective local

industry capacity increase.

3

Component manufacturers (45) Systems, Consulting, R&D (30) Full Members - 44 Full Members - 17

Busi Impianti Divisione ANIT (IT), City Solar AG (DE), Conergy (DE), Econcern (NL), EDF (FR), Elettro Sun srl (IT), Engcotec (DE), Goldbeck Solar (DE), IBC Solar GmbH (DE), IB Vogt Process Engineering + (DE), IT Power Ltd. (UK), NAPS Systems OY (FIN), Philips Solar Energy (NL), Phönix Sonnenstrom AG (DE), Tenesol (FR), Trama TechnoAmbiental (ES), WIP-Renewables (DE)

Associate Members - 13

Appled Films (DE), Atersa (ES), BP Solar (ES), Crystalox Ltd. (UK), Dow Corning Europe (BE), DuPont de Nemours France SAS (FR), Elkem Solar (NO), Energy Solutions (BG), Enitecnologie (IT), ErSol Solar Energy (DE), First Solar (DE), Fronius (AU), HCT Shaping Systems (CH), Honeywell Specialty Materials (BE), Isofoton (ES), Isovolta (AUT), KACO Gerätetechnik (DE), Konarka (USA), Kyocera (DE), Meyer + Burger (CH), Multi-Contact (CH), Photovoltech (BE), Photowatt International (FR), Pillar (UKR), Podolsky Chemical (RU), PV Silicon (DE), Q-Cells (DE), Samsung Deutschland (DE), Sanyo Component Europe GmbH (HU), Scanwafer (NO), SCHOTT Solar (DE), Scheuten Solar Technology (DE), Sharp Electronics (UK), Shell Solar (NL), SMA Technologie (DE), Solar Century (UK), Solar World (DE), Solvay Solexis (BE), Sputnik Enineering (CH), Sunways (DE), TOPSIL (DK), VESUVIUS (FR), Wacker-Chemie (DE), Würth Solar (DE)

ADEME (FR), Apollon Solar (FR), Belval (CH), CRES (GR), ECN (NL), Fraunhofer Institute FhG-ISE (DE), GENEC (FR), Heliodomi (GR), IMEC (BE), Kosolco (DE), Observ’ER (FR), Segen Ltd (UK), SHV Holdings NV (NL),

Associate Members - 1 Solland Solar Energy (NL),

4

GPSC: Global Solar Electricity Council

History of the initiative: - Paris – June 2004 – Proposal of the action – Industry Day, 19th

EUPVSEC- Barcelona – June 2005 – Meeting with national PV associations

from around the Globe

Mission: • Its mission consists to promote the photovoltaic energy on the global

marketplace as a sustainable and clean electricity supply for on-grid and off-grid applications.

• GPSC is a platform for supporting its members in their common interest for the industry needs and for the market development

Members: Worldwide PV players and associations

Priority Activities: • Statistics• Warranty and Guarantee issues• Boundary conditions• Standardization and certification (modules and systems, waste,

recycling and reusing)• Competitiveness with other energy sources (externalities, socio-

economic issues)• International cooperation

5

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

Alzenau, HeadquartersFully integrated production of wafers, cells and modules

Phototronics(PST) PutzbrunnProduction of thin film modules

SCHOTT Solar GmbH

SCHOTT Solar, Inc.Billerica (MA) USAFully integrated productionof wafers, cells and modules

SCHOTT Solar Inc.Rocklin (CA) USA System integration Sales of modules andsystems

SCHOTT Solar CRValasske Mezirici, CRProduction of modules

SCHOTT Solar GroupEmployess: ca. 900 world-wideTurnover: 285 Mio. € in FY 2005

SCHOTT AG

Subsidiaries 100 %

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

6

200119991960 1970 1980

AEG Telefunken

Mobil Tyco Solar Energy

1990

MBB

1994

PST

DASA 50%

NUKEM 50%

Mobil Solar Energy

1996

100% TESSAG

100% NUKEM GmbH

100% RWE Solutions AG

ASE GmbH

ASE Americas Inc.

2002

RWE SCHOTT Solar GmbH

RWE SCHOTT Solar Inc.

Joint Venture RWE Solutions SCHOTT Glas

RWE Solar GmbH

ASE Americas Inc.

2005

SCHOTT Solar GmbH

1999 2001

© RWE Space Solar Power GmbH

RWE Space Solar Power GmbH

More than 300 Satellites with RWE Solar cells

ASE SAX (1) 1991/93

AZUR (1) 1968/69 INTELSAT 4 (2)

1970/71 ESRO 4 (2) 1971/72 CTS /

HERMES (2) 1973/74

HELIOS A (3) 1973/74

GEOS 1,2 (2) 1973/74

OTS 1,2 (2) 1974/75

IUE (1) 1974/75

MAROTS (1) 1974/75

ISEE-B (1) 1974/75

EXOSAT (1) 1978/79

INTELSAT 5 (15) 1976/82

ECS (5) 1977/83

HUBBLE SPACE

TELESCOPE (1) 1978/90

IRAS (1) 1978/79

MARECS (3) 1978/82

TELECOM 1 (3) 1981/85

OSCAR (3) 1980/81

TDF (2) 1981/88

SPOT 1-4 (4) 1981/93

ARABSAT 1 (1) 1981/85

GIOTTO (1) 1981/85 IRM-

AMPTE (1) 1981/84

OLYMPUS (2) 1982/84

TV-SAT (2) 1981/85

DFS (3) 1983/88

IRS 1 (2) 1983/85

METEOSAT (4) 1983/88

INTELSAT 6 (5) 1982/85

SKYNET 4 (3) 1982/85

ERS (2) 1985/87

ROSAT (1) 1984/89

TDF (1) 1985/89

TELE-X (1) 1984/85

HIPPARCOS (1) 1984/86

EURECA (1) 1985/88

ISO (1) 1986/92

INSAT (2) 1986/89

EUTELSAT 2 (4) 1986/89

SKYNET 4 (3) 1985/90

ASPERA (3) 1986/87

INTELSAT 7 (5) 1989/92 BREMSAT (1)

1991/92

INSAT 2 (3) 1990/92 EUTELSAT 2 (1)

1990/92

HELIOS (2) 1989/93

LOCSTAR (2) 1989/92

FREJA (1) 1991/92

SOHO (1) 1991/94

ITALSAT 2 (1) 1991/93

IRS 1 (2) 1991/94

TÜRKSAT 1 (3) 1991/92

POSAT (1) 1992/93

POLAR PLATFORM (1)

1992/96

UOSAT (1) 1992/93

CLUSTER (4) 1992/95

RADARSAT (1) 1992/94

KITSAT (1) 1992/93

AMOS (1) 1993/94

IRS P2 (1) 1993

TS 1 (1) 1993/94

ARTEMIS (1) 1994/95

TÜRKSAT 2 (2) 1994/95

ARABSAT (2) 1994/95

INSAT (6) 1993/98

THAICOM 3 (1) 1995/96

ROCSAT (1) 1998

EQUATOR S (1) 1996/97

SROSS (1) 1993/94

SIRIUS (4) 1996/97

EUTELSAT W24 (4) 1996/97 IRAD (6)

1996/97

GLOBALSTAR (49) 1996/98

STENTOR (1) 1996/98

HOTBIRD 4,5 (2) 1996/97

NAHUEL 1 (1) 1996/97

SPC (8) 1995/99

ICOP (1) 1997/98

SKYNET (2) 1996/97

SBIRS (1) 1997/98

SINGASAT (1) 1997/98

METEOSAT (3) 1996/99

INTEGRAL (1) 1997/98

SINOSAT (3) 1996/97

XMM (1) 1997

EOS (2) 1997/98

ABRIXAS (1) 1997/98

ORION 2 (2) 1997/98

AGILA (2) 1994/95

HISPASAT (2) 1998/99

WORLDSTAR (4) 1997/98

ASTRA (1) 1997/98

ROSETTA (1) 2000

INSAT (1) 1999

HES (3) 1998/99

SSL-AF (1) 1998/99

ARABSAT (2) 1998/99 PROTEUS (1)

1998/99

SPOT 5 (2) 1998/99

METOP (3) 1998/99

PROBA (1) 1999/00

HELIOS 2 (2) 1999

ATV (10) 2001/08

GLOBALSTAR (10) 1999

Geolite (1) 19991)

1999

CHAMP (2) 1998

INTELSAT (1) 1997/98

INTELSAT KTV (1)

1999

ASTRA 2B (1) 1999

EUTELSAT W1R (1) 1999

Since 1964 RWE Space Solar Power has powered ... ... more than 300 satellites.

RADARSAT 2001

INMARSAT 2001/02

INTELSAT (2) 2001/02

ROCSAT 2001

RRRWWWEEE SSSpppaaaccceee SSSooolllaaarrr PPPooowwweeerrr

iiinnn SSSpppaaaccceee

W3A 2001

CAST 2001

HES 2 2002

SPC (10) 2002

Amazonas 2002

Eros B 2002

Proteus 2 2002

Goce 2002

SarLupe 2003

Herschel 2003

Planck 2003 Anik

2003

8

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

90 bn cm²45 bn cm²today

m² semiconductor areacm² wafer areatypical characterization by

in-linebatch typeprocess technology

thin film (aSi, II-IV, dye, organic)

flat panel display (aSi)new products

III-VIII-V (GaAs)new materials

silicon wafersilicon wafermain stream technology base

PV solar electricityindustry

semiconductorindustry

9

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

Value Added Chain for PV Systems (c-Si)

Laminate

Module

Si - Feedstock

BOS-DC/ACBOS - others

Installation (ca.)

Cell

Wafer

100 %stand-alone

Si, Wafer, Cell

Laminate

BOSModule

Installation

40 %

5 %

5 %

5 - 10 %

5 - 10 %

Parts of PV add-on cost takenby standard building materials

60 – 70 %BIPV

10

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

Gary Homan: Hemlock Semiconductor Corporation,

2nd Solar Silicon Conference, Munich 2005

The Solar Supply Chain

SGS/ASiMI

Silicon Ingot/Wafers Cells Modules

HSC Crystalox Q-Cell

Wacker

Tokuyama

MEMC

Others

REC

SCHOTT Solar *

Sharp

Solar World

Examples of Manufacturing Companies (not all inclusive * addition SG PC)

Kyocera, BP Solar

11

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

Investments in the Value Chain Crystalline Si-Modules

20 … 40Modules

30 … 50Cells

60 …80Wafer

60 … 120Si feed stock

Mio € per 100 MWInvesments

11

110 -170

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

12

World PV Market Size and Application Segmentation

12

18 % p.a.

63 % p.a.

40 % p.a.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Mar

ket

Siz

e i

n M

Wp

Off-Grid & Consumer on-Grid

13

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

Competitiveness between Electricity Generating Cost for PV and Utility Prices

Source: RWE Energie AG and RSS GmbH

Photovoltaics

Utility peak power

Bulk power

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

€/kWh

900 h/a: 0,60 €/kWh

1800 h/a: 0,30 €/kWh

market support programs necessary:

14

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

Spot Market Prices in Correlation with PV Electricity Generation in Germany

Spot market price

PV power output

Source:

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

15

History

Forecast

15

Price Experience Curvefor PV Solar Modules

0

1

10

1 10 100 1000 10000

GWp accumulated

$/W

p m

od

ule

pri

ce

1 GWp/a2004

3,5 GWp/a2010

35 GWp/a2020

330 GWp/a2030

experience factor15%

18%

1

10

100

1 10 100 1000 10000

MWp accumulated

$/W

p m

od

ule

pri

ce

20% price decrease by doubling cumulative volume

16

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

Cost and price decrease of technology driven PV solar electricity

minimum - 3 % p.a.

realistic - 5 % p.a.

maximum - 7 % p.a.

Price increase of standard electricity production

minimum +1 % p.a.

realistic +3 % p.a.

maximum + 5 % p.a.

Competitiveness of PV solar electricity

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

17

Future Growth of the Global PV Solar Electricity Market in GW and bn $ Turnover

inst

alle

d G

Wp

per

yea

rin

vest

emen

ts in

pro

du

ctio

n m

ach

iner

y [b

n$]

mo

du

le m

arke

t vo

lum

e [b

n$

p.a

.]

(

As

su

mp

tio

n:

$ =

€)

0,1

1

10

100

1000

2000 2010 2020 2030

1

10

100

1000

10000

+ 25 % p.a.

+ 17 % p.a.

2004

18

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

Technology Evolution

0 5 10 15 20 250

1

2

3

0 5 10 15 20 250

1

2

3

2020+

2010+

Module Efficiency [%]

2000+c-Si

TF

a-Si-pin/pin

a-Si/µc-Si

II-VI

dye a-Si-pinII-VI

r

r

mc

mc

Cz

Cz

Feedstock for the PV Industry Karl Hesse, Ewald Schindlbeck, April 11 2005, Page 19

CAGR Poly-Demand 2004 - 2010: + 15 %

SOLAR-GRADE SILICON:SUPPLY CAN NOT FOLLOW DEMAND.

Moduleproduction (MW) and Polysilicon Production (tons) tons MW

3,1 GW

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

1

10

100

1000

10000

Solarsilicon

Byproducts of Electronics

Demand

Moduleproduction

Moduleproduction based on 20 % growth/year

20

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

Development of Annual Silicon Consumption

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Year

Rel

ativ

e m

ark

et

sha

re c

-Si [

%]

Sili

co

n c

on

sum

pti

on

[g

/Wp

]

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

An

nu

al S

ilico

n c

on

su

mp

tio

n

[10

00t/

a]

S 1

Scenario 1

Scenario 2S 2

21

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

Market data Europe including the 100000 rooftop program / feed-in tariff (EEG) in Germany

Source: IEA PVPS

21

Yea

rly

inst

alle

d M

Wp

100000 roof-top program

KfW

EEG

EEG PVamendment

22

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

European Market Support Programs

plannedGreece

100 / 3002044 - 49Italy

I, Tlifetime28 – 51Portugal

Cap[MW]

Duration[a]

Tariff[€ct/kWh]

complicated-2015 – 30France

I, T3002522 – 40Spain

-2048 – 62 Germany

other support programs(I: Investment subsidy

T: Tax reduction)

Feed-in law

Country

22

23

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

Würth Solar (CSi)

SCHOTT Solar (ASi)

Thin Film

Scheuten

Kyocera

Sharp

AtersaPhotovoltechTopsil

AleoSunwaysPillar…

SolarfabrikQ-CellsScan WaferMeyer & BurgerEtimex

SolarwattErsolPV CrystaloxHCTJura Plast

IsofotonUnaxis …Vesuvius

BP SolarApplied FilmsSt. Gobain

MulticontactShell SolarRoth & RauDu Pont

KACOPhotowattSchmidDow Corning

FroniusSCHOTT SolarEteraElkem

SMASolar WorldCentrothermWacker

ModuleCellWaferManufacturer(Sifs, glass, chemicals)

BOSComponent ManufacturerEquipmentBase materials

24

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

Production and Market - Current Situation

PV Industry (2003/2004):

Production Market

365

202

10986

594

344

141176

Japan Europe USA ROW

219197

6692

278

437

83

130

Japan Europe USA ROW

25

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

Comparison of the Future Market Development in Europe and Japan

Yearly installations mainly Germany

Cumulative installations mainlyGermany

Yearly installations Japan

Cumulative installationsJapan

Additional EU-installations e.g. EU-wide feed-in tariff program (not contained in accumulated curve)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

cum

ula

ted

in

stal

lati

on

s in

MW

p

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Yea

rly

inst

all

atio

ns

in M

Wp

must b

e revised

toward

s 5 GW

cumulativ

e

and 1300 MW

in 2010

in E

urope !

25

26

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

0

1

Development Prediction of World-wide Electricity Capacity in Relation to PV Solar Electricity Contribution

10

100

1.000

10.000

2000 2010 2020 2030

GW

100 %

10 %

1 %

PV1

100

1,000

10

10,000

worldwide electricity generating capacity

2030202020102000Year

3.5

35

350

3,500

35,000

TW

h /

@ 3

.500

h l

oad

fac

tor

+30%p.a. +25%p.a.

26

27

SOLAR PHOTOVOLTAIK

Contribution of PV Solar Electricity to Global Electricity Production in 2040

Source: Own estimates together with data from EREC /11/ and WBGU /12/

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

[%]

1 marine

2 geothermal

3 biomass

4 hydro

5 wind

6 solar thermal

7 PV solar

electricity

36,000 TWh

2001

… 2040

ww electricity