Solar Vision Study Overview - US Department of EnergySolar Vision Study Overview Robert Margolis...
Transcript of Solar Vision Study Overview - US Department of EnergySolar Vision Study Overview Robert Margolis...
Solar Energy Technologies Program
Solar Vision Study OverviewRobert MargolisNational Renewable Energy Laboratory
Solar Energy Technologies ProgramAnnual Program Review Meeting
Washington, DCMay 24, 2010
U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program May 24, 2010
Background
• The Solar Vision Study explores the potential for and challenges to reaching high penetration levels of solar energy in the U.S. by 2030.– Specific analysis focuses on technical, economic, and
environmental feasibility of meeting 10% or 20% of U.S. electricity demand by 2030
– Technologies covered include: Photovoltaics (PV); Concentrating Solar Power (CSP); and Solar Heating and Cooling (SHC)
• The Solar Vision Study was initiated during March 2009 with broad industry participation– Over 100 individuals contributing at some level
• The Solar Vision Study is scheduled to be completed during the summer of 2010.
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U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program May 24, 2010
Report Outline
1. Introduction / Executive Summary2. Solar Energy Market Evolution and Technical Potential3. Analysis of Solar Growth Scenarios4. Solar Photovoltaics: Technologies, Cost, and Performance5. Concentrating Solar Power: Technologies, Cost, and
Performance6. Solar Heating and Cooling: Technologies, Cost, and
Performance7. Integration of Solar into the U.S. Electric Power System 8. Solar Power Environmental Impacts and Siting Challenges 9. Solar Industry Financial Issues and Opportunities10. Solar Policy Options11. Appendix: Analysis Assumptions
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U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program May 24, 2010
Solar Capacity Growth in 10% and 20% Scenarios
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U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program May 24, 2010
0100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,2001,300
2010 Capacity
10% Reference
10% Vision 20% Reference
20% Vision
Gen
erat
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Capa
city
(G
W)
Storage
Distributed PV
Utility PV
CSP
Wind
Other
Hydro
Oil-gas-steam
Gas-CT
Gas-CC
Coal
Nuclear
U.S. Electricity Generation Capacity in 2030
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U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program May 24, 2010
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2010 Gen. 10% Reference
10% Vision 20% Reference
20% Vision
Elec
tric
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Wh)
Storage
Distributed PV
Utility PV
CSP
Wind
Other
Hydro
Oil-gas-steam
Gas-CT
Gas-CC
Coal
Nuclear
U.S. Electricity Generation, 2030
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U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program May 24, 2010
Analysis also Included Unit Commitment and Dispatch Modeling (using GridView)
• Simulate physical and financial operation of electric power system– Hourly chronological– Commits and dispatches units based on:
• Electricity demand• Operating parameters of generators• Transmission grid parameters
• Uses– Commit units in the day-ahead market– Dispatch units in real-time– System planning
• Transmission and generation
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U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program May 24, 2010
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May-18 00:00
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Pow
er (G
W)
Curtailment
PV
CSP
Wind
Other
Hydro
Gas-CT
Gas-CC
Coal
Nuclear
Load
Example Spring Dispatch (GridView Output )
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• Hourly simulations shows CSP, hydro, gas, and coal cycling.
• Also shows mid-day curtailment.
• Most (~ 2/3rds) of system curtailment occurs in spring.
• WECC has highest level of curtailment.
GridView-Simulated National Mean Dispatch Stack 4 Spring Days, 20% Scenario in 2030
U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program May 24, 2010
Patterns of Supply and Demand in the 20% Vision Scenario
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• Regions with significant CSP (southwest) and wind (northern plains) are frequently export regions.
• Additional transmission investment required is about 5% and 13% above the reference cases.
Mean Transmitted Energy for the 20% Vision Scenario in 2030
Note: Net exporting (red) and importing (blue) regions and interregional energy transmission (arrows).
U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program May 24, 2010
Cost of Achieving the Vision Scenarios
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• The additional investment in renewable generation capacity is mostly offset by savings in fuel and conventional capacity.
• Impact on the price of retail electricity is relatively small, about 0.1 ¢/kWh and 0.9 ¢/kWh respectively.
Total Electric Sector Costs for the Reference and Vision Scenarios
Note: Includes all costs through 2030 plus fuel and O&M costs through 2050.
+ 5% + 15%
U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program May 24, 2010
Environmental Benefits
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• By 2030, the 10% and 20% Vision scenarios result in annual reductions of 170 and 600 million metric tons of CO2, respectively.
• This is equivalent to displacing the annual emissions from 30–100 million cars.
Annual Electric-Sector CO2 Emissions
- 7%
+ 28%
U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program May 24, 2010
Expected Key Messages & Insights
• Meeting 10% or 20% of U.S. electricity needs with solar energy by 2030 is feasible and does not require technological breakthroughs, untried policies, or unprecedented growth rates.
• 10% scenario is achievable with the current electricity infrastructure; 20% scenario would require significant transmission expansion and grid operations advancement.
• Siting poses significant, but not insurmountable, challenges to achieving the 20% scenario.
• Financing growth on supply chain/corporate side is not an issue, however, on the project side will need to move beyond tax equity markets to meet targets.
• The Vision scenarios would result in a 7% to 28% reduction in U.S. CO2 emission from electricity generation by 2030.
• The overall U.S. solar workforce is expected to increase from about 14,000 in 2009 to 260,000 in 2030 for the 10% Vision scenario and to 410,000 for the 20% Vision scenario.
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U.S. Department of Energy Solar Energy Technologies Program May 24, 2010 Slide 13
Thank You
Slide 13Slide 13
Contact Information:
Robert M. MargolisSenior Energy AnalystNational Renewable Energy Laboratory
Email: [email protected]: 202-488-2222on the web: www.nrel.gov/analysis