Solar Pulse Check 2010 - goetzpartners · Solar Pulse Check 2010 5 „Established Quality Brands "...

August 2010

Solar Pulse Check 2010Production costs and sales strategies – an inside out analysis of the solar industry

2Solar Pulse Check 2010

Target group of the Solar Pulse Check are cell & module manufacturers in the solar industry. After successfully conducting the Solar Pulse Check

2009 with 28 participants, in 2010 goetzpartners conducted the market survey for a second time with 46 participating companies. The Solar Pulse

Check claims to provide an understanding of current trends and market dynamics to executives within the solar industry as a basis for strategic

company decisions.

This year‘s focus of the Solar Pulse Check is set on 3 distinct topics:

Reduction of production costs

Sales and sales supportive activities

Consolidation within the solar industry

The results of the Solar Pulse Check 2010:

Cell and module producers within the solar industry can be clustered in 3 distinct categories: Established Players, Established Asian and

Upcoming Players

An outside-in view on the solar industry is in contrast to the inside-out view of the participating companies

According to the interviewed companies Upcoming Players face the challenge to reduce their production costs while Established Quality

Brands should focus on sales. Consolidation is important for both company clusters

A goetzpartners market analysis reveals a different picture of the solar industry: Established Quality Brands have to cut their production costs

to ensure future competitiveness whereas Established Asians and Upcoming Players both have to facilitate their sales activities. The upcoming

consolidation wave will affect all companies in each cluster, the question here is whether you play an active role on the buy side or the buy side

plays with you.

Solar Pulse Check

3

Survey – general remarks

8

46

85

Cell- module

manufacturer

Project developer,

system integrators

Total

contacted

companies

38

SampleReceived

questionnaires

3

4

6

7

13

0 - 50

101 - 250

51 - 100

251 - 500

>500

54%Rate of

return

Duration of the survey

June - July 2010

∑=

13,3

GW1)

61%

39%

Solar Pulse Check 2010

Production capacity 2009 in MW

Structure of participants 20102)

13

8

17

8

Others3

BusinessDevelopment

SalesExecutives

C-Level

Participants of the goetzpartners solar pulse check 2010 represent over 61% of cell and module

production capacity worldwide

Not participating

Participating

72%

28%

Number of participants

Number of companies

Survey – interviewed companies Sample details

1) 2009 cell and module production capacity 2) Responsibility within the company 3) Others include p. e. Marketing executives and IR manager

Source: goetzpartners survey

8

46

4

Clustering of cell and module producers


Cell and module producers can be clustered in 3 categories. The three main challenges of the solar

industry are of different relevance for companies in the different clusters

The relevance of the 3 main challenges of the solar industry have to be analyzed for

each cluster individually

High

High

"Upcoming Players„

(Mainly Asians)

Established Asian

Players

Pe

rceiv

ed

qu

alit

y

Low

Low Production costs

?

Quality at any cost?Sweet Spot?

Dumping

prices?

Company clusters Main challenges of the solar industry

Established Quality

Brands

Reduction of production costs

Continuous reduction of the production costs to ensure profit

margins in a highly competitive market with declining ASP

(average sales prices)

Sales

Enhancement and internationalization of sales activities,

facilitation of after-sales services to ensure market penetration

in established markets and successful market entrance to

upcoming growing markets as well as establishment as brand

name

Consolidation

Strategic positioning before prior to the expected consolidation

wave within the solar industry

Source: goetzpartners


„Upcoming Players"„Established Asian "„Established Quality Brands "

Competitive

advantage

Outside-In

analysis

Each company has its own strength and weaknesses in critical success factors

Market specifics have to be considered in an individual strategic roadmap consisting of “realizing quick wins”, “strengthen the

strength” and “transforming weaknesses into strength”

Reduction of production costs Sales Consolidation

Internationals Chinese

Production

cost gap

Others

Energy

Labor

Material

0.99

1.55

1.34

ASP

1.29

Production

costs

ASP

+30%

Production

costs

+20%

+35%

Max.

100%74%

InternationalsChinese

47% +57%

Recall of brand awareness

Benchmarking of customer programs

No

programD

eve

lop

me

nt

sta

ge

Time

Re

ve

nu

e G

row

th

-30%

0%

30%

60%

90%

120%

-120% -20% 0% 20%-80%-100% -60% -40%

Ø = -8%

Ø = 41%

Ø = -8%

Ø = 41%

Internationals

Chinese

EBIT-Margin

> >> > >

Max.

100%74%

InternationalsChinese

47% +57%

Recall of brand awareness

Benchmarking of customer programs

No

programD

evelo

pm

en

t sta

ge

Time

Size of symbol indicates the competitive advantage of the companies in the cluster


Results of the goetzpartners analysis (outside-in)

According to critical success factors and resulting competitive advantages of the different clusters,

successful strategies have to be determined individually

> >>

6

Summary of the results of the Solar Pulse Check 2010 (inside-out)


The high importance of all the survey’s aspects are stressed by the high rating of all questions – the

focus on specific topics has to be set individually by each company

Reduction of production costs by…

Standardization of products and shop floor optimization

Optimization of procurement

Relocation of production facilities

Facilitation and support of sales activities by…

Building a brand name and set up of international sales structure

Strategic sales alliances and partnering programs

Establishment of after sales services

Upcoming consolidation in the solar industry can be seen in…

Expectation of a consolidation wave

Expectation of acquisitions

Debt ratio and cost efficiency

Reduction

of

production

costs

Sales

Consoli-

dation

High relevance Low relevance

Current challenges in the solar industry

Relevance for companies within the 3 clusters

(View of interviewed companies)

Source: goetzpartners„Upcoming Players"„Established Asian "„Established Quality Brands "


Defining the

“competitive

threshold"

International

strategies and

branding

Access to retail

customer and

financial strength

Scope of action

Inside-out –

participants view

Reduction of

production costs

Sales Consolidation

The results of the Solar Pulse check

are in contrast to an analysis of the

current market situation in the solar

industry by goetzpartners

(Renewables III Study “How

dangerous is the Chinese dragon

really”)

Successful strategies have to be

identified individually for each

company according to its strength

and weaknesses and specific

market conditions

~Outside-in –

goetzpartners view


Challenges in strategic fields of actions for solar companies

Strategic implications of the Solar Pulse Check 2010

The goetzpartners view on the solar industry is in contrast to the results of this survey and recommends

an individual discussion of the company’s strategies

„Upcoming Players"„Established Asian "„Established Quality Brands "

8

goetzpartners solar expertise


goetzpartners project experience along the Si-solar value chain

SiliconIngot,

waferCells Modules Sales

Productio

n

equipme

nt

Inverter,

Tracking

S.

Wholesal

e

Installatio

n, EPCFinancing

Research & development

of Si-solar cells and modules

Equipment,

PeripheralsSystem integration

1) COGS: Cost of goods sold


(Re-) organization

CEO

(Span of control: 26)

CFO/ Legal

Region Europe

R&D PV SIProduct Mang. Marketing/ IR/

BDGroup Office

Region

APMEA

Region China

Region JapanR&D Solar Cell

R&D Solar

Module

R&D Silicon

R&D Thin Film

EHS/ Security/

Safety

HROperationOperation

Kuttler Suzhou

Kuttler

GermanyFacility

PR/ Plan-

ning& Contr.

Operation

Shanghai

Sales Support

Region US

MSK

Technology

Internal Audit3]

Centrally managed function

Regional function

Corporate functions

Shared Service function

Level of decentralization of Operation/ Execution

Level o

f d

ecen

traliza

tio

n o

f

Au

tho

rity

/ A

cco

un

tab

ilit

y

Direct reporting

Dotted-line reporting

Set up and exe-

cution at cor-

porate without

regional input

and expertise

Deliver centralized

services (standard-

ized) for various

recipients (e.g. re-

gions) based on

defined SLAs1]

Design of global

standards by cor-

porate which en-

able regions to

operate in prede-

fined framework

Cover region-

specific topics by

independent

function

A: Accountable R: Responsibility

E: Execution C: Consulting

VPA

R, C

E,C

Manager

Staff

VP

Staff E,C

Region/ plantCorporate

VP

Corporate

A

R, C Manager Manager

Staff

R

E

Region/ plant

VP

StaffE

Corporate Region/ plant

Service

Center

VPVP

Region/ plant

A A

E, C

Manager

VP

R, C

Corporate

VP

Staff E, C

Region/ plant

Manager R, C

A

Accountability (“Principal”)

Task: Makes the final decision and stands up for the

outcome in total

Must be unique for each function

Alignment criteriaAlignment criteria

A

R

E

C

Execution (“Staff”)

Task: Carry out / execute defined activities

Competence

Task: Support execution with functional expertise (has

information and/or capacity necessary to complete activity)

Responsibility (“Manager”)

Task: Responsible for success of implementation within

defined framework

Can be separated to different persons and hierarchical levels

Cross

functions

Re

gio

ns

….

Top Management

R&

D

Current organizational set upCurrent organizational set up

Strategic

implications

3

Vision/ Mission

1

Vision/ Mission

1

Ma

rke

t an

d in

ve

sto

rre

flec

tion

Derivation of

organizational

principles

4

Design of

organizational

blue print

5

Targets for 2012

2

Sales

US

Sales

LAM

Regional

support

Sales

China

Project

Develop.

Regional

support

Sales

Korea

Sales

Australia

Sales …

Regional

support

R&D PV

SI

R&D

Silicon

R&D Cell

R&D

Thin Film

R&D

Module

Cell

Plants

Module

Plants

EHS/

Security7] Kuttler11]Legal

Accoun-

ting

IT13]

CEO office4]

N.N. (Office head)

Finance

Brand

Mgmt.

Intern.

PR

…

PMLogis-

tics

Sour-

cing

Demand

Mgmt.

Facility7]Invest-

ment6]

1] Reporting via a Audit Committee

3] Includes Lobbying and governmental affairs, Chinese PR and Corporate Culture

4] Managed by a CEO office head: Responsible for PMO and administration

5] acting Chief Commercial Officer

6] Financing of investments

7] lean corporate department, most of functions within plants

8] GCS: Global Customer Service

9] Project Development incl. financial services

10] Product Development

11] Mid-term: Integration under responsibility of COO

12] acting COO

13] Short-term: direct reporting to CEO

Sales

Germany

Sales

France

Sales …

Regional

support

Quality7]

Internal Audit1]

Li Tao

Product

Mark.

COO12]

D. Hogg

CCO 5]

S. Chan

Plan-

ning

Sales

Japan

Regional

support

Upstream

SCM

…

PM

A. Beebe

Marketing

W-T. Kwok

Japan

Yamamoto

APMEA

J. Hu

China

Lei Ting

Americas

…

Compen-

sation

Training

Perfor-

mance

TCS

Claim

…

GCS8]

J. Zhu

Prod.

G. Zhang

Proj.

Dev. 9]

N.N.

Prod.Dev

.10] Cai S.

CTO-

office

Internal

Control

CFO

A. Zhang

HR EVP

H. Jiang

Techno-

logy7[

CTO

S. W.

…

Order

Proces.

Ship-

ment

Downstrea

m SCM

…

Corp. Dev. (D. Hogg)

IR (S. Chan)

Strategic Invest (Hao Zhi)

External and Internal Affairs3]

(A. Xie)

CEO

Dr. Shi

Europe

…

COGS1-

Control

Cell Production

Order ID

1 172

72

72

72

72

54

54

54

54

Cell

package

Code

Cell batch

Module

Production

Order ID

Module

batch

21

26

…

ModulesCell

packages

Wafers

3x 4x

Sales

Order ID… … …

EVA

1:1 link Purchase

Batch

No timely consistent batch possible

modules are

packed as batches

on palettes

(21/26 etc pieces)

For 54 and 60

modules several

cell packages are

used

Supplier

1

Supplier

n

Purchase batch

… … …

1 11

1

1

Wafer

batch

Module

Code

Bold – from IT

Normal – Description

Direct link

Averaging

Strategic price and

condition systemTypische „Pitfalls“ in der Preissetzung - Sanitärindustrie Typische „Pitfalls“ in der Preissetzung - Sanitärindustrie

17

15

10

1033

60

100

2

Serien-

förder-

rabatt

Brutto-

listen-

preis

(BLP)

Paletten-

rabatt

nn-PreisSkonto

5

3

-67%

Buch-

haltungs-

abzug

5

nnn-

Preis

(GH-

Preis)

Rech-

nungs-

rabatt

Umsatz-

boni

Delkre-

dere

Leistungs-

rabatt

-45%

-40%

Keine leistungs-

gebundenen

Rabatte

Zu hohe Anzahl

an Rabattbau-

steinen

Zu hohe Preis-

verwerfungen

(BLP vs. nnn)

Nur durch die zeitnahe Implementierung eines stringenten Preis- und Konditionen (PuK)-

Systems können effiziente Preisstrukturen in der Solarbranche realisiert werden GH= Großhandel , nn-Preis= Netto-Netto-Preis,Preis nach direkten Rabatten; nnn-Preis= Preis inkl. aller Abzüge

Komplexität und

Intransparenz der

Preissetzung durch:

Vielzahl an

Rabattbausteinen

hohe Differenz

zwischen BLP

und nnn-Preis

fehlende

leistungsge-

bundene Rabatte

Go to market strategies

Positioning with current go-to market approach

low high

Ma

rke

t a

ttra

cti

ve

ne

ss

hig

hlo

w

Ability to win

Investment/

turnaround

market

Maintenance

markets

Focus

market

Monitor

market

development

2009 2012

Market prioritization Market prioritization Go-to market approachGo-to market approach

Clustering of similar submarkets that are at an relative immature stage might be useful;

this will impact market attractiveness as well as go-to market approach

2012 Positioning with future go-to market approach

Fly in, fly out

Agents / distributors

Joint Venture

Strategic Alliance

Merger & Acquisition

Local sales office

ST

P s

tra

teg

ic f

ith

igh

low

low high

Resource / competence intensity

low high

Resource / competence intensity

Not entering

New

bus

ines

s co

ncep

ts

Current go-to market approach Future go-to market approach

M&A Services

Due Diligence

Technology Development & ProductionUp-, Mid-, Down- & Cross-StreamSystems Integration

Operation, Power Transmission & Sale

EBIT-

margin[2]

2010e

8% 12% 19% 18% 43%

Finan-cingInstallation/ EPC1)Whole-saleModuleCellIngot / WaferPoly-silicon

% of

Value

Added

No. of

Players

EBIT-

Multiple

38%

23%15%

6% 5%

~15 >20 >40 >400 >5,000

5.9 x

-55%

2009e2008

13.2 x

2007

14.7 x

EBIT-

Multiple

9.9 x

-32%

2009e2008

14.6 x

2007

15.2 x 8.8 x

-47%

2009e2008

16.6 x

2007

22.5 x

CAPEX intensive Technology bet Low margin area

PE sweet spots:

Peripheralsmarket

Equipmentmarket

P

E

9

Solar Pulse Check 2010 – detailed results

10

5,4

7,0

6,0

Cutting of

production costs8,6

Relocation of

production facilities

Mittelwert

Backward integration

on wafer level

Sales and sales

supportive activities

101

6,0

7,0

6,0

9,0

101

5,5

7,3

4,6

9,0

101

6,2

7,2

6,2

8,3

7,0

5,9

8,1

101

6,0

Main challenges for western cell and module producers (2010-2012)

Question: In your opinion, what are the challenges for western cell and module producers in the next 1-2 years within the solar industry?1

Completely

irrelevant

Highly

relevant

(N=12)(N=10)

Cost cutting is the focus of “Established Brands”

Average of all participants

(N=45)

(N=14)


While cost cutting is the most important challenge for “Established Brands” …

Remarks: All participants include cell and module producers as well as traders, project developers and system integrators


6,0

6,0

9,0

7,5

9,0

5,0

7,5

6,5

Mean

8,0

5,5

10,0

5,0

Median

„Upcoming

Players"

„Established

Asian"

„Established

Quality Brands"

11

6,3

6,0

7,6

5,1

8,1

101 101

7,4

5,2

7,9

8,7

7,1

8,5

5,0

8,5

9,5

7,5

8,0

7,5

6,5

8,0

5,5

101

7,0

6,0

6,7

7,8

4,56,0

6,9

5,7

7,1

101

Mittelwert

Facilitate sales activities

Backward integration

on waver level

Country specific

mixed strategy

Establishment as

brand name8,0

Contracted manufacturing

for other OEMs

7,5

6,0

7,0

8,0

4,5


(N=44)


…Asian manufacturers have to establish their own brand name and market position



Question: Asian cell and module producers are facing different challenges in the meantime. Which of the following are the most relevant? 2

Completely

irrelevant

Highly

relevant

(N=12)(N=10) (N=14)

Main challenges for Asian cell and module producers (2010-2012)

Mean Median

Upcoming Asians focus on production, marketing and

sales

6,5

8,5

5,5

7,5

7,0

„Upcoming

Players"

„Established

Asian"

„Established

Quality Brands"

12

9,0

9,0

8,0

8,0

8,0

8,0

8,0

7,0

8,2

8,4

7,6

7,0

101101

8,0

6,8

7,9

5,9

7,5

7,4

7,3

5,5

101

8,0

8,0

8,0

7,0

Question: What are the main drivers to cut costs per MW at existing production facilities? 3

Completely

irrelevant

Highly

relevant

(N=11)(N=11)


(N=44)

(N=14)

6,0

7,5

7,5

Mittelwert

Optimization of

procurement7,9

Shop floor

optimization

Standardization

of products

Simplification of

product portfolio

Optimization of procurement is the key driver to cut production costs

Reduction of production costs (1/2)




Mean

101

8,0

8,0

8,0

7,0

Median

Individual actions to cut production costs depend on

development stage of the company

„Upcoming

Players"

„Established

Asian"

„Established

Quality Brands"

13

Opinion of all participants

(N=44)

3

44

5

66

4

55

2

Ø 5,5

10981 765432

Completely

irrelevant 1

1

3

2

1

1

1

1

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

2

3

4

2

2

2

2

1

2

1

1

2

1

3

1

2

2

1




Question: How important is relocating production facilities to countries with low-wages (e.g. Asia)? 4

(N=12)(N=11) (N=14)

Completely

irrelevant

Highly

relevant

Highly

relevant

Relocation of production facilities to countries with low wages is only of moderate relevance for

companies within the solar industry

Reduction of production costs (2/2)

Even „Established Brands“ do not favor relocation of production

facilities to countries with low wages

„Upcoming

Players"

„Established

Asian"

„Established

Quality Brands"

14

Completely

irrelevant

Highly

relevant

(N=11)(N=11) (N=14)

6,0

8,0

10

8,0

1

8,0

9,0

9,0

101

7,2

6,5

7,4

8,7

7,6

8,4

7,8

8,8

8,7

6,8

7,2

101

8,3

101

7,7

6,1

8,3

7,4

8,7

9,2

9,0

6,0

8,0

7,0

9,0

9,0

Sales and sales supportive activities (1/7)

9,0

6,0

8,0

7,0

9,0

9,0

Establishing as a brand name is the main focus in sales activities




Question: Which of the following business models are important for future success in sales? 5


(N=44)

8,4

7,5

7,4

6,2

7,5

Facilitate establishment

as premium brand8,7

Mean

Partnering program

Set up international

sales activities

Acquisition and preference

of premium customers

Customer segmentation

Establish production facilities

in international target markets

7,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

8,0

8,5

Median

Especially “Established Brands” and “Established Asians” focus on

their perception as a brand name

„Upcoming

Players"

„Established

Asian"

„Established

Quality Brands"

15

Completely

irrelevant

Highly

relevant

Question: What is the value add of the following sales supportive activities according to your experience?6

7,1

101

8,6

9,0

7,4


(N=45)

Median

7,1

1

6,7

10

7,8

8,0

9,0

8,0

7,57,5

9,0

8,0

8,0

10

7,6

8,4

7,6

1

6,8

8,0

7,5

9,0

8,07,7

7,3

After sales services

Duration of guarantee 7,9

Financing products

(e.g. bridge loans)

for large solar parks

Supporting activities to

access financing options

10

8,3

1

Mean

8,0

9,0

8,0

8,0


Especially the benefit of after sales-services is seen as an important sales supportive activity


8,0



(N=12)(N=11) (N=14)

After sales, access to financing options and quality issues are the

main sales supportive activities

„Upcoming

Players"

„Established

Asian "

„Established

Quality Brands "

16


Quality differences between different players are vanishing; importance of brand name, services and

customer orientation is rising


Remarks: 1) USP: Unique Selling Proposition


Question: Quality differences between different companies are shrinking. Asian players have increased their products to be competitive with

western cell and module producers. What are future USPs for customers, traders and project developers?

7

High

Pe

rceiv

ed

qu

alit

y

Low Production costs

Quality, brand

name and price

are the future

success factors

Selling arguments are:

1) Production location

2) Processed materials

3) Market experience

After sales services are a key future

selling proposition

Brand name, guarantees und all in one

solutions for retail customers and

installation experts

Quality is a must-have and not a selling

proposition. Brand name, accessible sales

channels and offered (after sales) services are

determining the USP1

Recycling programs and

environmental sustainability is

one unique selling proposition

Flexible product availability is an

essential differentiation

There will always be differences in

know-how and quality; marketing is

therefore getting more important and

becomes the companies’ USP1

High demand

for customer

specific

solutions Quality selling

propositions

High

Low

"Established Quality Players"

"Established Asian Players"

"Upcoming Players"

17


Growing markets for the solar industry are located outside of Germany and the quota of sales in these

markets is going to grow especially for “Upcoming Players”




(N=12)(N=10)

Opportunities for future growth are located outside Germany

(N=13)

Question: 1) What will be the share of revenues from international sales of the top 10 German cell and module producers in 2012?

2) What is the target quota for international sales (regarding Germany as domestic market) of your company in 2012?

8a

Average opinion of all participants

(N=42)

Target quota for

your company

50% - 60%

Quota of international

sales of German top

10 cell and module

producers

40% - 50% 48%47%

67%

50%58%

46%

„Upcoming

Players"

„Established

Asian "

„Established

Quality Brands "

18



Companies will concentrate on 6-8 target markets



Question: How many international markets will be attractive for your company in the near future?8b

(N=12)(N=11) (N=14)


(N=41)

7

17

11

4

1 - 5

6 - 8

9 - 11

12 - 15

> 15

1

5

1

1

2

4

2

3

3

7

5

Num

be

r o

f fu

ture

ma

rkets

Number of answers

Only a few countries will dominated future growth in the solar

business

„Upcoming

Players"

„Established

Asian "

„Established

Quality Brands "

19



Italy and the US are in the focus of the internationalization



Question: What are the top 5 countries?8c

(N=12)(N=11) (N=14)


(N=44)

30

20

11

8

34

3020

GER

Italy

USA

0

Spain

China / Japan

10

1

2

3

4

5

Rank Number of answers

9

5

4

2

10

China /

GRE

0

Spain

USA

GER

9Italy

9

6

4

3Japan /

Middle East

China / GRE

100

USA

Italy 9

GER

8

7

4

3

Japan

USA

GER

Italy 11

0

Spain /

GRE

10

Identification of the characteristics of the target markets is one of

the key success factors

„Upcoming

Players"

„Established

Asian "

„Established

Quality Brands "

20



To meat the targets of company growth in international markets, enhancement of regional sales and

organization structures is one key criterion



9


(N=40)


(N=40)

6,2

6,0

101

Mean

De-centralization of cost

and profit centers

Enhancement of

regional sales

organization structures

8,3

Set up of

shared services6,9

6,5

101

Mean

De-centralization of cost

and profit centers

Enhancement of

regional sales

organization structures

8,0

Set up of

shared services

101

7,0

8,0

7,0

Relevant in your industry Relevant for your company

7,0

8,5

7,0

Median Median

Completely

irrelevantHighly

relevant

Completely

irrelevantHighly

relevant

Question: Rapidly increasing revenues and facilitating of international activities have changed the shape of cell and module producers to

international acting companies. To what extend is a simultaneous adjustment of the organizational structure necessary to

face future challenges?

21

Consolidation in the solar industry (1/4)


In the opinion of more than 67% of the participating companies there definitely is a significant pressure

for a consolidation in the solar industry



Question: Is there currently high pressure for a consolidation of the market? 10


(N=44)

Completely

irrelevant

(N=10)(N=12) (N=14)

Highly

relevant

7

4

6

11

3

4

1

3

2

0

10987654321

Completely

irrelevant

Highly

relevant

∑=67%

1

1

1

3

2

2

2

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1

3

2

2

1

1

1

2

4

1

2

3

Especially „Established Brands“ and „Upcoming Players“ are

experiencing high pressure

„Upcoming

Players"

„Established

Asian "

„Established

Quality Brands "

22



Acquisitions are assumed to be the main driver for consolidation



Question: What are the main drivers of the consolidation in solar industry?11

(N=12)(N=11) (N=14)

Rating 2009

(N=23)

101

Mean

6,5

7,2

6,5

Completely

irrelevant

Highly

relevant

101

Mean

Mergers 6,7

Acquisitions 6,7

Insolvencies 6,5

Median

10

7,0

8,0

7,0

6,5

7,2

6,5

∆

101

7,0

7,6

6,2

101

6,1

6,7

6,3

1

6,3

7,4

6,6

10

8,0

8,0

6,0

6,0

6,5

7,5

6,0

8,0

7,0

Rating 2010

(N=43)

Who will actively shape the consolidation by acquisitions and

what are the main targets?

„Upcoming

Players"

„Established

Asian "

„Established

Quality Brands "

23

101

7,8

7,5

8,4

8,6

7,1

8,2

101

8,0

8,0

9,0

9,0

8,0

8,0

1086421

8,0

8,0

8,0

9,0

7,0

8,0



In the opinion of the participating companies access to retail customers and sales structures are one of

the most important aspects within the consolidation phase

1) Debt ratio: Access to loans 2) USD: Unique Selling Proposition


Question: The current market structure implies a consolidation within the PV-market. What are the most important criteria to emerge

stronger from this consolidation process?

12

(N=10)(N=12) (N=13)

Rating 2009

(N=23)

Completely

irrelevant

Highly

relevant

Rating 2010

(N=43)

101

Mean

Cost efficiency 7,6

USPc2) 7,8

Growth 7,3

Sales (access

to customers)8,3

Debt ratio1) 5,9

Financial

resources8,6

101

Mean

8,0

7,3

7,4

8,4

7,2

7,9

Median∆

101

8,3

7,4

6,8

8,3

8,3

8,8

101

7,4

8,1

7,7

8,4

6,8

7,6

101

8,5

8,0

6,5

8,5

9,0

8,5

101

8,0

7,5

8,0

8,5

6,0

8,0

“Established Brands” are still focusing predominantly on financial

strength

„Upcoming

Players"

„Established

Asian "

„Established

Quality Brands "

24

65

13

3

8

>80%76 to

80%

71 to

75%

66 to

70%

61 to

65%

56 to

60%

51 to

55%

<= 50%

Market share of

top-10 in 2012

Market share of

top-10 in 2015 13

4

78

32

8

>80%76 to

80%

71 to

75%

66 to

70%

61 to

65%

56 to

60%

51 to

60%

<= 50%


An increasing market share to

more than 60% of the top-10

cell and module producers is

assumed till 2015. This

development can be driven

by the consolidation of the

market facilitated by the top-

10 players through

acquisitions


It is assumed that the cumulative market share of the top-10 cell and module producers is going to grow

from currently 50% to over 60% within the next few years




(N=41)

Question: The top 10 cell and module producers currently have a global market share (produced MW) of ~50%. What is their market

share in 2012 and 2015?

13

25

About goetzpartners


goetzpartners is one of the leading energy experts in Europe. We help our clients adjust their strategy to market challenges, in the fields of

municipal utility, international utility, renewable energy, mining & generation and oil & gas. Typical projects cover incentive regulation, in

particular for municipal utilities, as well as deriving the optimal energy mix for power generation. We deal with innovative issues such as e-

mobility for international power suppliers to the same extent as classical topics such as developing market entry strategies for solar cell and

module manufacturers. In collaboration with our clients we develop marketable measures across the entire value chain.

goetzpartners is one of the leading independent advisory firms in Europe, offering M&A (Mergers & Acquisitions), Management Consulting

and Interim Management services under one roof. The group stands for an innovative consulting approach and tailor-made solutions that

are successfully implemented together with their clients. goetzpartners has offices in Munich, Düsseldorf, Frankfurt, Freienbach near Zurich,

London, Paris, Madrid, Moscow and Prague as well as co-operations in New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Bangalore, Mumbai and

Budapest.

goetzpartners Management Consultants is specialized in the fields of strategy, organization, operational excellence, sales and marketing,

restructuring, interim management and strategic due diligence. goetzpartners Corporate Finance focuses on M&A advisory services.

goetzpartners was classed a “Hidden Champion“ 2009 in the fields of strategic due diligence, financial and merger strategies as well as

post-merger integration (result of the latest “Hidden champion” study carried out by Professor Fink in collaboration with the magazine

"Capital“).

Industry Line Energy

26

Disclaimer


This report is protected by public copy right. Any duplication and distribution of this report has to be approved by goetzpartners. The results of

this report are based on a survey within the solar industry conducted by goetzpartners and public company information. In preparing this

report, goetzpartners has relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of information from these

public sources.

goetzpartners accepts no liability whatsoever for the accurateness of these results and opinions. Furthermore theses results represent an

average opinion of the companies within the solar industry. As a matter of fact individual cases are not considered in within this report.

This report should not be used as sole source of information for any decisions related to the topics covered in this report. Any information taken

from the report should be verified independently and completed by information from additional sources. This report does not carry any right of

publication.

ContaktMichael Sanktjohanser – Managing Director

Fon +49 - 89 - 290 725 - 510

Mobil +49 - 160 - 989 41 - 518

[email protected]

Günther Schermer – Partner

Fon +49 - 89 - 290 725 - 598

Mobil +49 - 151 - 171 41 - 037

[email protected]

Sebastian Olbert – Senior Manager

Fon +49 - 89 - 290 725 - 593

Mobil +49 - 151 - 171 41 - 067

[email protected]

goetzpartners

MANAGEMENT CONSULTANTS GmbH

Prinzregentenstraße 56

80538 München

www.goetzpartners.com

Solar Pulse Check 2010 - goetzpartners · Solar Pulse Check 2010 5 „Established Quality Brands "...

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