Solar Power Potential with PRT
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![Page 1: Solar Power Potential with PRT](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812eed550346895d94872f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Solar Power Potential with PRT Ron SwensonATRA Santa Cruz2006 November 18
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The Elevator Speech
Without solar, energy independence is pure rhetoric.
• Clinton’s New Generation Vehicle
• Arnold’s Hydrogen Highway
• GM’s Yellow Gas Cap
• Bush’s Cellulosic Ethanol.
Only solar energy will do the job.
Solar is sufficient to power high capacity
PRT -- 100 percent -- using only the system’s 4’ to 8’ right of way.
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A Little Personal History
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ObjectiveTo demonstrate that solar energy is an adequate oil substitute,
and is in fact the only viable transport alternative.
Context: Collosal issues are forcing us to rethink our options…• Peak Oil will limit global supply of liquid fossil fuels.• Global Warming will force out coal and uranium.• Substitute BioFuels cannot achieve adequate scale.• Social Equity will prevail against war for oil.
Solution: Solar PRT the only transport option that offers… • Politics: Energy Independence• Economics: Quick Payback • Science: Good Energy Return on Energy Invested (ERoEI)• Environment: Carbon Divestment
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Context: Global Warming
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Global Warming over the Past Millennium
Very rapidly we have entered uncharted territory… Over the 20th century, … energy consumption increased sixteenfold. Global warming from the fossil fuel greenhouse became a major, and increasingly dominant, factor in climate change.
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0
5
10
15
20
25
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9
Tons of CO2 per Thousand 1995 U.S. Dollars
Tons of CO
2 per Person
United States
Canada
Greece
California
United Kingdom
Portugal
SpainItaly
Germany
Denmark
FranceSweden
AustraliaNetherlands
Carbon Intensities for California and Selected Countries
Ton
s C
O2 p
er
pers
on
Tons of CO2 per Thousand 1995 US Dollars
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Context: Peak Oil
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Can Solar Energy Replace Oil?
We know the peak is coming … but what can we do about it?
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American Consumers Do Understand
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Context: BioFuels
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Net Production of Biomass in the USA
www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek
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The All-New DonCar!
www.HubbertPeak.com/Transport
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There is no SilverSilver Bullet.
Why SilverSilver in the first place? • The Lone Range chose silver to emphasize
that silver, like life, was precious and should not be wasted.
• Specific gravity of Pb = 11.35• Specific gravity of AgAg = 10.50AgAgAgAg
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Context: Social Equity
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Swenson’s Law To avoid deprivation
resulting from the exhaustion of non-renewable resources, humanity must employ conservation and renewable resource substitutes sufficient to match depletion.
www.HubbertPeak.com/Swenson
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120
100
80
60
40
20
0 0 10 20 30 40
Time
Consequence of Delayed Investment
begin investment before decline
Net Energy Production
Begin investment during decline
www.HubbertPeak.com/BeyondOil
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Energy Independence
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Non-Oil, Power Exporting …
• Countries…(Sweden, Iceland..)
• Cities… (Santa Cruz?)
• Colleges… (UCSC?)
• Companies… (ElectroRoof, 3 BOE/day)
• Citizens… (You and I?)
But “energy independence” is an elusive goal. To get a clue, let’s go back to the future…
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Thomas Edison
“I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait 'til oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”
(1847-1931) www.ThomasEdison.com
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Global Solar Energy Balance
Solar Energy Input (TeraWatts)
178,000
Reflected to Space Immediately 53,000
Absorbed and Then Reflected as Heat 82,000
Used to Evaporate Water (Weather) 40,000
Captured by Plant Photosynthesis 100
Total Energy Used by Human Society 13
Total Energy Used by US Society 2.5
Total Human Food Energy 0.6
www.hubbertPeak.com/debate/oilcalcs.htm
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120,000 TW of solar energy received by the Earth
www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2
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Total Area Required for a Photovoltaic Power Plant to Produce the Total U.S. Annual Electrical Demand
Nevada
P109-G1055201
Total Area Required for a PV Power Plant to Produce the Total US Electrical Demand
www.ecotopia.com/Apollo2
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PV: The Growth Industry
OilOil
PVPV
Oil declines at 4%/yr
PV increases at 50%/yr
Peak +5 +10 +15
www.ecotopia.com/ASES/SolarToday
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The Solution: Solar PRT
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Solar on Rail
www.SolarEvolution.com/SkyTran
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SkyTran Solar
Solar SkyTran, with aesthetics emphasis and added power at stations
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jPod Solar
www.jPods.com
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Similar Solar Systems Exist
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Economics
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30 mph, operating speed
x 2 sec (vehicle interval)
= 88 ft between vehicles
= 60 vehicles/mi, separated by interval specified
x 2 kw @ operating speed
= 120 kw needed in a mile stretch
10 hrs at peak operation equivalent
÷ 4 hrs of peak sun equivalent (Coast = 4, Desert = 6)
= 2.5 solar factor
120 x 2.5 = 300
kW/mile
x $6.00 /watt
$1,800,000 /mi
16 watts / sq ft, SunPower, most efficient on market
3.5 ft wide solar panel to meet requirement
Calculate Solar size, cost per Mile
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Santa Cruz Projected Growth in Travel
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1.5 people/vehicle
2,700 passengers per hour at full capacity
27,000 passengers per day
Calculate Passengers per Day
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
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25 mpg, average fleet mileage
27,000 passengers per day to match
2.0 people/vehicle
13,500 vehicles/day
x $2.50 /gallon fuel price
= $33,750 Cost to travel fleet mileage daily
$ 12,318,750 Annual cost to travel fleet mileage
$ 45,000,000 Cost of solar to cover fleet mileage
= 3.7 years, Payback for solar system to offset gasoline
Compare Solar to Gasoline at $2.50/gallon
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
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Science
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Thermodynamics of Oil
It depends …• Pennsylvania?• Saudi Arabia?• Off-shore?
Plus …• Ravaged land/oceans• Greenhouse gases• Water contamination
EROI = 10±
And it’s getting worse…
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Thermodynamics of PV
• EROI: 5 years
• Life: 50 years
• Plus it can be bootstrapped
EROI = 1030 ~ electric
And it’s getting better…
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Environment
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Corn Cars & Bean Buses?
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Back to solid fuels?
A team of horses uses 10 tons of feed per year. How much more would a tractor need?
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Lessons from History!
The original buggy whip protest!
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Electricity. Not exactly a new idea…
Touch it?
… It is ephemeral, like solar power.
See it?
A match made in heaven.
Can you lift it?
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The Electric Rail
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Solar PRT
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
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Solarevolution™
More at www.SolarEvolution.com
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Additional Information
More about Global ConditionsMore about California ConditionsMore about Santa Cruz ConditionsMore about PRTMore HistoryMore about EthanolMore about TeraWatts
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More about Global Conditions: Peak Oil
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Projected Vehicle Ownership Growth
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Consumption by Sector, USA
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Wishful Thinking: Energy Futures
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Oil Market Paradigms
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
million b/d
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
“Seven Sisters”
Oil shocks
OPEC manages market
OPEC has to meet
new demand
Conservation, new fuels, new technologies
Non-OPEC - FSU Non-OPEC - FSU
OPEC
FSUFSU
OPEC
Used with permission by Peter Wells
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USD $16 Trillion Investment thru 2030USD $16 Trillion Investment thru 2030
$10 Trillion in Electric Power Plants$10 Trillion in Electric Power Plants
Cumulative World Energy Investment by Energy Use
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More about Global Conditions: Global Warming
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•
CO2 Reduction Target
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Breakdown of CO2 Emissions
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More about Global Conditions: Conventional Vehicle Perspective
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Measuring the efficiency and emissionsof the fuel/energy source
Well-to-Wheel
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From “Well-to-Wheel” to LCA
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kg CO2/kg
LCA Example: CO2 from Materials Production
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LCA Example: CO2 from Vehicle Production
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More about California Conditions
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Total Electricity Use, per capita, 1960 - 2001
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
196019621964196619681970197219741976197819801982198419861988199019921994199619982000
KWh
12,000
8,000
7,000
California
U.S.
kWh
Regulations and fiscal policies can make a difference
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More about Santa Cruz Conditions
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Santa Cruz Daily Travel Patterns
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Master Transportation Study
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Master Transportation Study
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More about PRT
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Freeway at Capacity
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Vehicles Removed
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PRT Passengers
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PRT System
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Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)
www.SolarEvolution.com/PRT
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More History
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Lest we forget …They did bring coals to Newcastle.
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If canal boats are supplanted by railroads, serious unemployment will result …
...not to mention the numerous farmers now employed in growing hay for horses.
Van Buren 18328th President 1837-1841
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The Horseless Carriage
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From GridLock to Gas Lines
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More about BioFuels
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The BioFuel Myths and Facts
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Reality or Public Relations?
For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled.
Richard Feynman, Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident
Appendix F ミ Personal observations on the reliability of the Shuttle, June 6, 1986
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US Agriculture: Crop Areas
www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek
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US Agriculture: Crop Energy
Total crop energy 9.14 EJ (9quads)
www.oilcrisis.com/Patzek
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More about TeraWatts
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Solar Industry Response?
www.HubbertPeak.com/Apollo2
Goals• 50% US electricity by 2025 ≠• 200 gW by 2030 = 10%
How to get there? • Federal government procurement
$100 m/year• R&D investment $250 m/year by
2010• “Enact, modify, establish, boost,
support, increase, strengthen, grow…”
Inadequate
InadequateInconsistent
Inconsistent
Inconsistent
Inconsistent
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Energy Revolution (Terawatt Challenge)
0
5
10
15
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35
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50
Oil Coal GasFissionBiomass
Hydroelectric
Solar, wind, geothermal
0.5%
Source: BP & IEA
2004
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Oil Coal Gas
Fusion / Fission
Biomass
Hydroelectric
Solar, wind, geothermal
2050
14.5 Terawatts220 M BOE/day
30 -- 60 Terawatts450 – 900 MBOE/day
The Basis of Prosperity 20st Century = Oil 21st Century = [Renewables]
www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley
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Can Solar Energy Substitute for Oil?
Yes!
“Think TeraWatts”
www.HubbertPeak.com/Smalley
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Renewable Nations