Solar Future by shugar & dinwoodie
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Transcript of Solar Future by shugar & dinwoodie
Solar:Power TodayJune 2011
Residential1-10 kW
Commercial Rooftop10 kW – 1 MW
Utility Scale1 MW– 250 MW
Solar Growing Rapidly, Averaging 65% Compound Annual Growth Rate for the Past 5 Years
17 nuclear power plants
worth of solar peak
power shipped in
2010
Source: PV Industry Growth Data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant
5 nuclear plants
brought online in
2010
Solar Industry Growth has Produced Steadily Falling Prices
Sources: 1976 -1985 data from IPCC, Final Plenary, Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN), May 2011; 1985-2010 data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant;
2011 numbers based on current market data
Avera
ge P
rice
[U
SD
20
05
/W]
Produced Silicon PV Modules (Global)
$100
$50
$5
$1
$0100 1,000 10,000
1976
2010
Module Pricing Trends 1985-2011
Due to Polysilicon Shortage
$1.50
$60.00
Projected price increase 1% per year
Conventional Electricity Costs are Increasing
Average Retail Price of Electricity
Sources: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) ; DOE, Annual Energy Outlook, 2011
Projected price increase 2.5% per year
To date
US cell phone subscribers has risen
from 5.3 million to 285 million
in 15 years
Price
Technology and Adoption
Solar Adoption on High Tech Trajectory
Solar Price Drops MirrorHigh Tech Consumer Goods
DVD Players
Digital CamerasCell Phones
with plan
Driven by Innovation, Automation, and Scale
• 100% Financing accelerating solar home sales
• Sale of Energy, not equipment• Never an Increase in your Utility Bill• >100,000 solar power systems already
installed
Solar at Zero Cost in Increasing Markets
Solar is Less Expensive Than New Nuclear
Cents
per
Kilo
watt
Hour
Average time to permit and build a nuclear 1 GW power plant – 13 years. Average time to permit and build a 1 GW solar plant: < 1 yearThe last nuclear power plant completed in the US, Watts Bar 1 in Tennessee, took 23 years 7 months to construct.
$0.139
$0.07
$0.129
1 GW Plant
$0.095
Sources: 2011 nuclear price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 nuclear price is illustrative, calculated assuming 3.5% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016
(further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).
Solar is Less Expensive Than New Nuclear
Cents
per
Kilo
watt
Hour
Average time to permit and build a nuclear 1 GW power plant – 13 years. Average time to permit and build a 1 GW solar plant: < 1 yearThe last nuclear power plant completed in the US, Watts Bar 1 in Tennessee, took 23 years 7 months to construct.
$0.139
$0.07
$0.129
1 GW Plant
$0.095
Sources: 2011 nuclear price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 nuclear price is illustrative, calculated assuming 3.5% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016. Dotted line indicates
typical baseline prices bid into the California markets by solar developers, where awarded contracts receive typically a 25-30% adder based on the peak-coincident time-value of solar generation.
Projects bid into California Utilities in response to 2009 and 2011 requests for bids
Solar Beats Natural Gas Peak Power Today
Cents
per
Kilo
watt
Hour
$0.226
$0.139
$0.086
$0.238
250 MW Gas CT
Sources: 2011 gas price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2016 gas price is illustrative, calculated assuming 1% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011 (further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California
markets).
Gas peakers pollute 3 times more than natural gas power plants.
Cents
per
Kilo
watt
Hour
$0.226
$0.139
$0.086
$0.238
250 MW Gas CT
Solar Beats Natural Gas Peak Power Today
Sources: 2011 gas price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2016 gas price is illustrative, calculated assuming 1% annual escalation; 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011. Dotted line indicates typical baseline prices bid into the California markets
by solar developers, where awarded contracts receive typically a 25-30% adder based on the peak-coincident time-value of solar generation.
Gas peakers pollute 3 times more than natural gas power plants.
Projects bid into California Utilities in response to 2009 and 2011 requests for bids
Coal Plant 5%500 MW
New Coal Can’t Deliver Power for 6-8 Years, When Solar Will Be Competitive
Cents
per
Kilo
watt
Hour
$0.139
$0.07
$0.109
$0.07
Source: 2011 coal price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 coal price is illustrative, calculated assuming 5% annual escalation: 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016
(further validated by prices bid by solar developers into the California markets).
$0.08
Coal Plant 5%500 MW
New Coal Can’t Deliver Power for 6-8 Years, When Solar Will Be Competitive
Cents
per
Kilo
watt
Hour
$0.139
$0.07
$0.109
$0.07
Source: 2011 coal price is the mid-point of the LCOE range given by Lazard, version 5.0. 2020 coal price is illustrative, calculated assuming 5% annual escalation: 2011 & 2016 PV Prices from DOE, Advanced Research Projects Agency - Energy, $1/Watt Photovoltaic Systems, May 2011, 2020 PV price illustrative, assuming 4% annual cost reduction from 2016. Dotted line indicates
typical baseline prices bid into the California markets by solar developers, where awarded contracts receive typically a 25-30% adder based on the peak-coincident time-value of solar generation.
$0.08
Solar Meets Critical Peak Power Demand
Peak Summer Load
Tracking PV at Full Power
Summer Time Of Use Rates
28
26
24
22
20
18
Reta
il U
tilit
y R
ate
s, c
en
ts p
er
kw
h
Sources: For summer peak load shape – California Independent System Operator (CAL-ISO); For time of use rates – Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E); For PV Tracking Output – Solaria Corporation
Germany, with Less Sun than Seattle, is Largest Solar Market in the World
Solar Energy Capacity (2009) in GW
Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011
Solar Energy Capacity (2010) in GW
Italy and Germany added 13
GW in 2010
U.S. Solar Market Is Small but Growing
US Total Installed PV Solar Energy Nameplate Capacity and Generation
DOE, NREL, Renewable Energy Data Book, 2009; Lazard: Compiled from multiple industry sources, May 2011
California Adding Multiple GW of Solar in the Next 5 Years
California could be 20% solar by 2020
Of the 8.6 GW under contract, 4.4 GW is below the Market Price Referent (MPR), defined as the 20-year levelized cost of energy from a new natural gas plant in California.
Source: Greentech Media, February 2011
2009 Utility RFO submittals: 30 GW2011 Utility RFO submittals: 45 GW (expected)
4.4 GW under contract below the cost of energy from new natural gas 1
1
Utilities Recognize Solar’s AdvantagesCompleted US PV Projects
Total USA Installed PV 2 GW in 50 States
Global Installed 26 GW
Source: Solar Electric Power Association (http://www.solarelectricpower.org/solar-tools/solar-data-and-mapping-tool.aspx)
Completed US PV Projects
Utilities Recognize Solar’s Advantages
Over the next 4 years 12GW
Completed US PV Projects
1 Note: Utility purchases only - Does not include residential and commercial marketsSource: Solar Electric Power Association (http://www.solarelectricpower.org/solar-tools/solar-data-and-mapping-
tool.aspx)
1
Equal to 12
nuclear plants
in 4 years
Solar Subsidies Pale in Comparison to Fossil Fuels
Fossil Fuel and Solar
[ELI, SEIA]
[SEIA, Blumenauer, Treasury]
$72.4 billion
$2 billion
$40 billion
$7-10 billion
Estimating U.S. Government Subsidies to Energy Sources: 2002-2008Environmental Law Institute, September 2009SEIA (Solar Energy Industries Association) Federal Energy Subsidies in the United States: A Comparison of
Energy Technologies, February 24, 2011 “Ending Oil Industry Tax Breaks”Congressman Earl Blumenauer, Third District of Oregon, www.blumenauer.house.gov, April 2011
$72 bn
Fossil Fuel Subsidies Pad Profits while Prices Increase
7
8
9
10
11
12
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Ave
rag
e R
eta
il P
rice
of E
lect
ricity
: Ce
nts
pe
r K
ilow
att
Ho
ur
:
Sources :ARP of Electricity from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA); Subsidy Data Source from SEIA
$2 bn
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
2007 2008 2009 2010
Mo
du
le P
ricin
g T
ren
ds:
Cu
rre
nt $
/Wp
Relatively Small Solar Subsidies Produce Significant Price Declines
Sources: Weighted Average ASP Data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; Subsidy Data Source from SEIA
Solar Creates Jobs
7x more jobsthan coal
Average Total Jobs/Megawatts
Sources: Kammen, David M et al, 2004, Report of the Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab, Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley.Wei, Max et al, 2010,
Putting Renewables to Work: How Many Jobs Can the Clean Energy Industry Create?, Energy Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy and the Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley, in Energy Policy, vol 38, issue 2, February 2010.
Solar PV Uses Far Less Water than Other Power Sources
Source: Adapted from DOE 2010, Table 8.3
or Tower (wetcooled)
Added water if gas source is Fracking
Solar is Ready Now
Solar17 GW
Solar added more than 17 GW worldwide2010
All other sources combined only added 14.7 GW in the US2010
Coal6.7 GW
Natural Gas
5.5 GW
Wind5 GW
Source: Erik Shuster, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Tracking New Coal-Fired Power Plants, January 14, 2011(Natural Gas includes NGCC at 4GW and NG GT as 1.5 GW.)
US Solar Resource Dwarfs Other Markets
SPAIN
GERMANY
Map Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy
Enough land area to power
the whole country
US Lags in both PV Production and Market Growth2010 Global Supply/Demand
Supply 17.4-GWp Demand
Source: Supply data from Paula Mints, Principal Analyst, Solar Services Program, Navigant; Demand data from Source: Greentech Media
Solar power will be the largest source of electricity in the U.S.
TW
H/y
r
To 2030 To 2040 To 2050
• Substitute Generation • Smartgrid• Flexible Generation
• Energy Storage
Sources: McKinsey Report, 2007 for starting points and energy efficiency; AWEA for wind; internal SunPower calculations for DPV, CPV, CSP
Transition to Renewables
Public Support for Clean Energy
91 percent of Americans say developing sources of clean energy should be a priority for the president and Congress
85% of Republicans
89% of Independents
97% of Democrats
Sources: Public Support for Climate & Energy Policies in May 2011, Yale Project on Climate Change.
Solar
Less expensive than new nuclear and cost competitive with new coal and gas started today
Delivers Gigawatt’s of power fast – 8 to 20 years faster than coal or nuclear
•Date and other infoThank You
•Date and other infoAppendix
Peak Demand/Heat Waves Coincide with Peak SunNew York City Blackout Summer 2003
Load (
GW
)
New York City Summer 2006 Peak Demand Day
Blackout could have been avoided with just 500 MW PV
Economic lossesin NYC alone
exceeded $1bn.
Losses were between
$7 to 10 bn in the Northeast U.S. and Canada
Economic Loss Sources: Reuters, ICF Consulting in Richard Perez - ARSC (with permission), City Comptroller, William Thompson, 2003
Among Global Energy Sources
6
Coal
Uranium
900Total
reserve
220
Petroleum
170
Natural Gas
70Wind
0.5
Waves
23
OTEC
Biomass
11
Hydro
4
0.3
TidesGeothermal
2
Renewable Energy(Annual Reserves)
FINITE ENERGY(TOTAL RESERVES)
© Richard Perez – Used With Permission
World Energy Use15 TW-yrs per year
15
Solar
40,000 TW-yrs per year
Solar is by Far the Most Abundant
6
World Energy Use15 TW-yrs per year
Coal
Uranium
900Total
reserve
220
Petroleum
170
Natural Gas
70Wind
0.5
Waves
23
OTEC
Biomass
11
Hydro
4
0.3
TidesGeothermal
2
15
© Richard Perez – Used With Permission
Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear MeltdownMarc
h 2011
BP Deep Water Horizon Oil
SpillApril 2010
Natural Gas Pipeline
Explosion in San Bruno,
CASeptember, 2010
Upper Big Branch Coal
Mine DisasterApril
2010
Examples of Energy Disasters 2010-2011