Solar Forcing for CMIP6
Transcript of Solar Forcing for CMIP6
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WGCM Meeting, Dubrovnik, 18-20 October 2015
Solar Forcing for CMIP6
Katja Matthes1,2 and Bernd Funke3
1GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Germany 2Christian-Albrechts Universität zu Kiel, Kiel, Germany
3Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía, CSIC, Granada, Spain
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Overview
• New reference SSI/TSI (and particle) forcing • Future solar (SSI and particle) forcing
• Final comments (solar forcing in PI control, solar ozone forcing)
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Relative Contribution to TSI
New SSI Reference!
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
6 S
SI
/ 6
TS
I [in
per
cent
]
200-400 400-700 700-1000 1000-2430
NR
LSS
IS
ATIR
EC
OS
IO
AR
SC
IAM
AC
HY
SO
RC
E
SU
SIM
WR
-2002
SO
RC
E reanalysis
NRLSSISATIRECOSIOARSCIAMACHYSORCE
WR-2002SUSIM
SORCE reanalysis
Ermolli, Matthes, Dudok de Witt et al., ACP (2013)
NRLSSI1 = standard so far (CMIP5, CCMVal, CCMI)
merged SATIRE+ NRLSSI2 = new reference data set
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0.1
1
10
100
Pre
ssu
re (
hP
a)
GEOSCCM NRLSSIGEOSCCM SORCEIC2D NRLSSIIC2D SORCEEMAC−FUB NRLSSIEMAC−FUB SORCEWACCM NRLSSIWACCM SORCEWACCM* NRLSSIECHAM6 NRLSSIHadGEM3 SORCEMMM NRLSSIMMM SORCE
−0.6 −0.4 −0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Heig
ht
(km
)
Shortwave Heating Rate
Stronger SSI forcing leads to stronger SW HR and temperature response!
SSI Impact on Atmospheric Response
Temperature
Ermolli, Matthes, Dudok de Witt et al., ACP (2013)
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New TSI Reference Value
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New TSI value 1360.8 ± 0.5 W m−2
Old TSI value 1365.4 ± 1.3 W m−2 (Kopp and Lean, 2011; Ermolli et al., 2013)
Courtesy T. Dudok de Wit (2015)
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New CMIP6 Reference Dataset
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1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
CMIP6 solar forcing: one netcdf file SSI, TSI, F10.7cm, kp, ap, GCR, protons daily resolution, 1850-2300, 2 scenarios (ref, extreme min)
particle forcing: auroral electrons, solar protons, galactic cosmic rays
radiative forcing: TSI, SSI, F10.7cm
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Two Future Scenarios
Reference future scenario
Extreme Maunder Minimum future scenario
Courtesy T. Dudok de Wit (2015)
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TSI: NRLSSI (ext=red, ref=black), SATIRE (ext=blue)
1 Jan1850
1 Jan1978
1 Jan2106
1 Jan2234
1359.5
1360.0
1360.5
1361.0
1361.5
1362.0
W/m
2
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Two Future Scenarios
Reference future scenario
Extreme Maunder Minimum future scenario
1850 1980 2100 2300
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CMIP6 Solar Forcing
Current status CMIP6 solar forcing dataset: Option1: Reconstruction based on empirical scaling (sunspot number – solar modulation potential) (ready, grey curve above) Option2: Merged SSI/TSI dataset from NRLSSI2 and SATIRE-S models
(SATIRE-S ready, NRLSSI2 almost)
CMIP5
CMIP6
SATIRE-TS
NRLSSI2
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Summary
• New reference SSI/TSI (+particle forcing) dataset ready by January 1st 2016 (1nm, daily resolution, 1850-2300, one netcdf file)
• Will be validated in lbl and climate model simulations
(part of CMIP6 solar forcing special issue)
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Final Remarks
• Solar forcing for PI control experiment:
² One constant value for TSI and SSI spectrum representative for 1850 solar cycle mean conditions
² Optional: second PI control with solar cycle
variability but no long-term trend included
• Solar ozone forcing timeseries is coordinated with CCMI ozone dataset (M. Hegglin)
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