Solar energy and the Water, Energy and Food Nexus in the ...€¦ · Solar energy and the Water,...
1
Solar energy and the Water, Energy and Food Nexus in the Brazilian northeast - a case study Érica Ferraz de Campos 1,3 , André Rodrigues Gonçalves 1 , Rodrigo Santos Costa 1 , Fernando Ramos Martins 2 , Pieter van Oel 3 , Enio Bueno Pereira 1 [email protected] Pereira et al. (2017) Solar Radiation (kWh/m².dia) São Francisco Basin has several instances for governance of the water resources. The main commission for normative, deliberative and advisory functions is composed by consumers, government representation, civil society and traditional communities. Other 18 local commissions define policies for the secundary rivers. Sobradinho reservoir outflow is defined by a steering committee, composed by representatives of federal agencies, state organisms, academy, and technical members. The outflow was intensively reduced during the recent severe drought: Regular streamflow: 2,060 m³/s | 2012: 1,300m³/s | 2015: 1,000m³/m³/s | 2016: 800m³/s | 2017: 600 m³/s | 2018: 550 m³/s (ANA, 2018b) WATER Threat to energy security Thermoelectric plants were powered on to meet the demand. Consequently, the CO2 emissions factor of Brazilian electricity considerably fluctuated from 24 (2009) to 135 kCO 2 /MWh (2014) (MCTIC 2018) Threat to food security Juazeiro and Petrolina produce fruits in a region with high water deficit and critical water use balance. Desertification is in course (INDE, 2018) Threat to water security Anomalous low rainfall 2012-2017 < 50% of rain season pattern is some regions (Marengo et al., 2017) Sobradinho dam reached ~2% of its water capacity in December 2015 and November 2017 (ANA, 2018a). References ANA. SAR - Sistema de Acompanhamento de Reservatórios. Available at: http://sar.ana.gov.br. Access: may 2018a. ANA. São Francisco - Sala de Situação. Available at: www3.ana.gov.br/portal/ANA/sala-de-situacao/sao-francisco. Access: may 2018b. ANA. Conjuntura dos recursos hídricos no Brasil 2017: relatório pleno. Brasília. 2017. AZEVEDO, S. C. DE; CARDIM, G. P.; PUGA, F.; SINGH, R. P.; SILVA, E. A. DA. Analysis of the 2012-2016 drought in the northeast Brazil and its impacts on the Sobradinho water reservoir. Remote Sensing Letters, v. 9, n. 5, p. 438–446, may 2018. CBHSF. Plano de Recursos Hídricos da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio São Francisco 2016-2025. 2016 IBGE. SIDRA: Sistema IBGE de Recuperação Automática. Available at: https://sidra.ibge.gov.br. Access: sep 2019. INDE. Metadados Geoespaciais. Disponível em: http://metadados.inde.gov.br Acesso em: 9 nov. 2018. FOOD ENERGY Water Demand/Q95 < 5% <10% 10% < x < 20% 20% < x < 40% > 40% ANA (2017) Juazeiro-Petrolina Fruits are important products that depends on irrigation Juazeiro-Petrolina produced 31% of Grape and 38% of Mango in Brazil in 2016 for internal market and exportation. IBGE (2019) Silva et al. (2018) Water irrigation demand at Petrolina (mm/year): Grape 840 Mango 1.112 Abundant energy source Solar radiation is a plentiful resource at semi-arid region due to constant incidence and little cloud presence during the year. Sao Francisco basin Semiarid region South America Brazil Multiple Uses of Water ~15 mi habitants that depends on São Francisco River to access water ~1 mi hab at Juazeiro-Petrolina region: ~40% depend economically on agriculture and pasture > 80% have income lower than US$ 200 IBGE (2019); CBHSF (2016) MARENGO, J.; ALVES, L.; ALVALA, R.; CUNHA, A. P.; BRITO, S.; MORAES, O. Climatic characteristics of the 2010-2016 drought in the semiarid Northeast Brazil region. Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências, 2017. MCTIC. Fator médio - Inventários corporativos. Available at: www.mctic.gov.br. Access: sep. 2018. ONS. Geração de Energia. Available at: http://ons.org.br. Access: sep. 2019. PEREIRA, E. B.; MARTINS, F. R.; GONÇALVES, A. R.; COSTA, R. S.; LIMA, F. J. L.; RÜTHER, R.; ABREU, S. L.; TIEPOLO, G. M.; PEREIRA, S. V.; SOUZA, J. G. Atlas Brasileiro de Energia Solar. 2a edição ed. São José dos Campos, 2017. SILVA, F. B.; PEREIRA, S. B.; MARTINEZ, M. A.; SILVA, D. D. DA; VIEIRA, N. P. A.; SILVA, F. B.; PEREIRA, S. B.; MARTINEZ, M. A.; SILVA, D. D. DA; VIEIRA, N. P. A. Water needs and equivalence relations for different irrigated crops in the São Francisco basin. REVISTA CIÊNCIA AGRONÔMICA, v. 49, n. 3, p. 409–419, 2018. Session 14 Sustainability Assessment and Evaluation of Natural Resources use in a Circular Economy 1 Earth System Science Center – CCST, Brazilian Institute for Space Research - INPE, São José dos Campos, 12227-010, São Paulo, Brazil 2 Department of Marine Science, Federal University of São Paulo, UNIFESP – Baixada Santista Campus, Santos, 11070-100, São Paulo, Brazil 3 Water Resources Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands CONTEXT CONCEPT - 2.000 4.000 1999 2005 2011 2017 Hydroelectricity (GWh) Average Outflow (m³/s) Plunge of hydro electricity generation ONS (2019) CASE STUDY WEF Security Objectives Scenarios variation Water Meet multiple uses: urban, rural, animals, industries Guarantee Water Minimize evaporation Function of maximum storage capacity (MSC) in reservoir Food Meet demand for irrigation Guarantee Energy Meet eletric transmission lines capacity Function of reservoir outflow + solar PV system Ecological Avoid salt wedge Set the minimum flow requirement at mouth (MFR) above 800m³/s SCENARIOS MFR (m³/s) MSC (% [bi m³]) 1,000 900 800 100% [34.1] 90% [31.3] 80% [28.4] 70% [25.5] 60% [22.6] - Water Demand: observed data - Hydraulic Outflow from resevoirs: maximum flow - Nodes priority: equal distribution MSC 60% + MFR 800 m³/s MSC 100% + MFR 1,000 m³/s MSC - Maximum Storage Capacity in Sobradinho Reservoir MFR - Minimum Flow Requirement at Mouth Volume of water in Sobradinho reservoir (bi m³) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 PRELIMINAR RESULTS The combination of MSC 100% + 800 m³/s resulted in the highest evaporation (6.8 bi m³). Savings from evaporation were achieved by reducing MSC (more effective) or increasing the streamflow. Water savings reached 2.2 bi m³ (32% less evaporation) in scenario 60% MSC + 800 m³/s. The high water reserve and high streamflow of scenario MSC 100% + 1,000 m³/s generated on average 2,850 GWh/year. This scenario obtained 8.7% more energy than the scenario with lowest result MSC 60% + 800 m³/s. The reduction of water storage started to meaningly affect electricity generation from MSC 80%. 4362 3014 4157 3188 2600 2114 1879 1959 1461 1475 4938 6286 5143 6112 6700 7186 7421 7341 7839 7825 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% MSC 60% + MFR 800 m³/s 3412 3327 4667 3550 2880 2541 2115 2150 1959 1899 5888 5973 4633 5750 6420 6759 7185 7150 7341 7401 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% MSC 100% + MRF 1,000 m³/s SOLAR (potential) HYDRO (observed) based on Sobradinho transmission lines capacity - The opportunity for hybrid solar-hydro energy was intensified during drought events. - Solar power rises the share of renewable electricity in the Brazilian grid and reduces the CO2 emission factor of the electricity. - Floating PV system operating at Sobradinho reservoir avoids new investments because it takes advantage of the current infrastructure to feed the national electric grid, underused during dry periods. HYDRO (observed) SOLAR (potential) Water, energy and food are essential resources for society. Their integrated management, based on the synergies and trade-offs offered by Nexus concept, is determinant in resources conservation and to attend to the demand in the long-term. At Brazilian semiarid Northeast, coexist at Petrolina and Juazeiro cities: the Sobradinho hydropower plant (HPP), with a 4,214 km² flooded area reservoir, and a fruit production center of 223 km², destined to Brazilian and international market. Both human activities depend on the water availability of São Francisco River and Sobradinho reservoir. Although the water demand for irrigation is intense - 348 million m³ in 2016, hydropower generation prevailed as a priority during the extremely dry period from 2012 to 2017. As the Water Agency (ANA) maintained the reservoir outflow in rates above the inflow, Sobradinho reservoir run dry twice. Solar irradiation is a main characteristic of semiarid. Thus, hybrid hydro-solar power generation show potential to minimize conflicts related to water access. In addition, national auctions of electric energy expansion have approved an increasing number of solar plants in this region. Moreover, a floating photovoltaic (PV) power plant is already being tested inside the Sobradinho reservoir. In this study, we analyzed scenarios of water management to improve the WEF Nexus at Sobradinho and target the SDGs 6, 7, 12, and 13. The software Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) was used to model the scenarios. The results are expressed in: saved water from evaporation, additional water available for multiple uses, and hydroelectricity generated. The dimensions of the PV system were also estimated for the most solar demanding scenario. Susceptibility of agriculture IBGE (2019) RECENT DROUGHT 2012-2017 Fruit production (t) 0 20 40 60 80 100 1999 2005 2011 2017 % Water in Sobradinho reservoir (%) ONS (2019) Water scarcity Streamflow at Mouth (bi m³) - 3 6 9 12 15 2009 2012 2015 2018 Ecological security level Oportunities of additional water available for multiple uses Hydropower generation (GWh) GOVERNANCE Boundary conditions Parameters set for both scenarios: MSC 60% + Outflow 800 m³/s Floating PV = 7.7 x 7.7 km ~5% Sobradinho lake area Image: Azevedo (2018) Sobradinho lake area in wet (2011) and dry (2016) years Input data: Capacity factor: 0.195; PV pannel power: 250Wp; PV pannel area: 1.6m²; Row spacing ratio: 2 This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001. The authors acknowledge the National Institute for Science and Technology for Climate Change (INCT‐MC), process CNPq 573797/2008‐0 and FAPESP 2008/57719‐9, INCT‐MC2 – process CNPq 465501/2014-1, FAPESP 2014/50848-9 and CAPES/FAPS Nº 16/2014 and the Research in Global Climate Change Program FAPESP 2017/22269-2. Demand security level Usable volume level Reference Scenario 1,00 1,03 1,06 1,09 800 900 1000 Streamflow at river mouth (m³/s) Incremental Hydroelectricity 2,850 GWh/year 2,620 GWh/year 0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 800 900 1000 Streamflow at river mouth (m³/s) Saved water from evaporation 6.8 bi m³ 4.6 bi m³ MSC CONCLUSION
Transcript of Solar energy and the Water, Energy and Food Nexus in the ...€¦ · Solar energy and the Water,...
Solar energy and the Water, Energy and Food Nexus in the Brazilian northeast - a case study
Érica Ferraz de Campos1,3, André Rodrigues Gonçalves1, Rodrigo Santos Costa1, Fernando Ramos Martins2, Pieter van Oel3, Enio Bueno Pereira1
Pereira et al. (2017)
Solar Radiation(kWh/m².dia)
São Francisco Basin has several instances for governance of the water resources. The main commission for normative,
deliberative and advisory functions is composed by consumers, government representation, civil society and traditional
communities. Other 18 local commissions define policies for the secundary rivers.
Sobradinho reservoir outflow is defined by a steering committee, composed by representatives of federal agencies, state
organisms, academy, and technical members. The outflow was intensively reduced during the recent severe drought:
Regular streamflow: 2,060 m³/s | 2012: 1,300m³/s | 2015: 1,000m³/m³/s | 2016: 800m³/s | 2017: 600 m³/s | 2018: 550 m³/s (ANA, 2018b)
WATER
Threat to energy security
Thermoelectric plants were powered on to meet
the demand. Consequently, the CO2 emissions
factor of Brazilian electricity considerably
fluctuated from 24 (2009) to 135 kCO2/MWh (2014) (MCTIC 2018)
Threat to food security
Juazeiro and Petrolina produce fruits in a region with
high water deficit and critical water use balance.
Desertification is in course (INDE, 2018)
Threat to water security
Anomalous low rainfall 2012-2017
< 50% of rain season pattern is some regions (Marengo et al., 2017)
Sobradinho dam reached ~2% of its water capacity in
December 2015 and November 2017 (ANA, 2018a).
ReferencesANA. SAR - Sistema de Acompanhamento de Reservatórios. Available at: http://sar.ana.gov.br. Access: may 2018a. ANA. São Francisco - Sala de Situação. Available at: www3.ana.gov.br/portal/ANA/sala-de-situacao/sao-francisco. Access: may 2018b. ANA. Conjuntura dos recursos hídricos no Brasil 2017: relatório pleno. Brasília. 2017.AZEVEDO, S. C. DE; CARDIM, G. P.; PUGA, F.; SINGH, R. P.; SILVA, E. A. DA. Analysis of the 2012-2016 drought in the northeast Brazil and its impacts on the Sobradinho water reservoir. Remote Sensing Letters, v. 9, n. 5, p. 438–446, may 2018. CBHSF. Plano de Recursos Hídricos da Bacia Hidrográfica do Rio São Francisco 2016-2025. 2016IBGE. SIDRA: Sistema IBGE de Recuperação Automática. Available at: https://sidra.ibge.gov.br. Access: sep 2019. INDE. Metadados Geoespaciais. Disponível em: http://metadados.inde.gov.br Acesso em: 9 nov. 2018.
FOOD
ENERGY
Water Demand/Q95 < 5%<10%10% < x < 20%20% < x < 40%> 40%ANA (2017)
Juazeiro-Petrolina
Fruits are important products that depends on irrigation
Juazeiro-Petrolina produced 31% of Grape and 38% of Mango
in Brazil in 2016 for internal market and exportation.
IBGE (2019)
Silva et al. (2018)
Water irrigation demand
at Petrolina (mm/year):
Grape 840
Mango 1.112
Abundant energy source
Solar radiation is a plentiful resource at
semi-arid region due to constant
incidence and little cloud presence
during the year.
Sao Francisco basin
Semiarid region
South America
Brazil Multiple Uses of Water
~15 mi habitants that depends on São
Francisco River to access water
~1 mi hab at Juazeiro-Petrolina region:
~40% depend economically on
agriculture and pasture
> 80% have income lower than US$ 200IBGE (2019); CBHSF (2016)
MARENGO, J.; ALVES, L.; ALVALA, R.; CUNHA, A. P.; BRITO, S.; MORAES, O. Climatic characteristics of the 2010-2016 drought in thesemiarid Northeast Brazil region. Anais da Academia Brasileira de Ciências, 2017.MCTIC. Fator médio - Inventários corporativos. Available at: www.mctic.gov.br. Access: sep. 2018. ONS. Geração de Energia. Available at: http://ons.org.br. Access: sep. 2019.PEREIRA, E. B.; MARTINS, F. R.; GONÇALVES, A. R.; COSTA, R. S.; LIMA, F. J. L.; RÜTHER, R.; ABREU, S. L.; TIEPOLO, G. M.; PEREIRA, S. V.; SOUZA, J. G. Atlas Brasileiro de Energia Solar. 2a edição ed. São José dos Campos, 2017.SILVA, F. B.; PEREIRA, S. B.; MARTINEZ, M. A.; SILVA, D. D. DA; VIEIRA, N. P. A.; SILVA, F. B.; PEREIRA, S. B.; MARTINEZ, M. A.; SILVA, D. D. DA; VIEIRA, N. P. A. Water needs and equivalence relations for different irrigated crops in the São Francisco basin. REVISTA CIÊNCIA AGRONÔMICA, v. 49, n. 3, p. 409–419, 2018.
Session 14 Sustainability Assessment and Evaluation of Natural Resources use in a Circular Economy
1 Earth System Science Center – CCST, Brazilian Institute for Space Research - INPE, São José dos Campos, 12227-010, São Paulo, Brazil2 Department of Marine Science, Federal University of São Paulo, UNIFESP – Baixada Santista Campus, Santos, 11070-100, São Paulo, Brazil3 Water Resources Management Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands
CO
NTE
XT
CO
NC
EPT
-
2.000
4.000
1999 2005 2011 2017
Hydroelectricity (GWh) Average Outflow (m³/s)
Plunge of hydroelectricitygeneration
ONS (2019)
CA
SE S
TUD
Y
WEF Security Objectives Scenarios variation
WaterMeet multiple uses: urban, rural, animals, industries
Guarantee
WaterMinimize evaporation
Function of maximum storage capacity (MSC) in reservoir
FoodMeet demand for irrigation
Guarantee
EnergyMeet eletric transmission lines capacity
Function of reservoir outflow + solar PV system
Ecological Avoid salt wedgeSet the minimum flow requirement at mouth (MFR) above 800m³/s
SCEN
AR
IOS
MFR (m³/s)
MSC (% [bi m³]) 1,000 900 800
100% [34.1]
90% [31.3]
80% [28.4]
70% [25.5]
60% [22.6]
- Water Demand: observed data- Hydraulic Outflow from resevoirs: maximum flow- Nodes priority: equal distribution
MSC 60% +MFR 800 m³/s
MSC 100% +MFR 1,000 m³/s
MSC - Maximum Storage Capacity in Sobradinho ReservoirMFR - Minimum Flow Requirement at Mouth
Volume of water in Sobradinho reservoir (bi m³)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
PR
ELIM
INA
R R
ESU
LTS
The combination of MSC 100% + 800 m³/s resulted
in the highest evaporation (6.8 bi m³). Savings
from evaporation were achieved by reducing MSC
(more effective) or increasing the streamflow.
Water savings reached 2.2 bi m³ (32% less
evaporation) in scenario 60% MSC + 800 m³/s.
The high water reserve and high streamflow of
scenario MSC 100% + 1,000 m³/s generated on
average 2,850 GWh/year. This scenario obtained
8.7% more energy than the scenario with lowest
result MSC 60% + 800 m³/s. The reduction of water
storage started to meaningly affect electricity
generation from MSC 80%.
4362
30144157
31882600 2114 1879 1959 1461 1475
4938
62865143
61126700 7186 7421 7341 7839 7825
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
MSC 60% + MFR 800 m³/s
3412 3327
46673550
2880 2541 2115 2150 1959 1899
5888 5973
46335750
6420 6759 7185 7150 7341 7401
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
MSC 100% + MRF 1,000 m³/s
SOLAR (potential)
HYDRO (observed)
based on Sobradinho transmission lines capacity
- The opportunity for hybrid solar-hydro energy
was intensified during drought events.
- Solar power rises the share of renewable
electricity in the Brazilian grid and reduces the
CO2 emission factor of the electricity.
- Floating PV system operating at Sobradinho
reservoir avoids new investments because it
takes advantage of the current infrastructure
to feed the national electric grid, underused
during dry periods.
HYDRO (observed)
SOLAR (potential)
Water, energy and food are essential resources for society.
Their integrated management, based on the synergies and
trade-offs offered by Nexus concept, is determinant in
resources conservation and to attend to the demand in the
long-term. At Brazilian semiarid Northeast, coexist at Petrolina
and Juazeiro cities: the Sobradinho hydropower plant (HPP),
with a 4,214 km² flooded area reservoir, and a fruit production
center of 223 km², destined to Brazilian and international
market. Both human activities depend on the water availability
of São Francisco River and Sobradinho reservoir. Although the
water demand for irrigation is intense - 348 million m³ in 2016,
hydropower generation prevailed as a priority during the
extremely dry period from 2012 to 2017. As the Water Agency
(ANA) maintained the reservoir outflow in rates above the
inflow, Sobradinho reservoir run dry twice.
Solar irradiation is a main characteristic of semiarid. Thus,
hybrid hydro-solar power generation show potential to
minimize conflicts related to water access. In addition, national
auctions of electric energy expansion have approved an
increasing number of solar plants in this region. Moreover, a
floating photovoltaic (PV) power plant is already being tested
inside the Sobradinho reservoir. In this study, we analyzed
scenarios of water management to improve the WEF Nexus at
Sobradinho and target the SDGs 6, 7, 12, and 13. The software
Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) was used to model the
scenarios. The results are expressed in: saved water from
evaporation, additional water available for multiple uses, and
hydroelectricity generated. The dimensions of the PV system
were also estimated for the most solar demanding scenario.
Susceptibility of agriculture
IBGE (2019)
REC
ENT
DR
OU
GH
T 2
01
2-2
01
7
Fruit production (t)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1999 2005 2011 2017
%
Water in Sobradinho reservoir (%)
ONS (2019)
Water scarcity
Streamflow at Mouth (bi m³)
-
3
6
9
12
15
2009 2012 2015 2018
Ecological security level
Oportunities of additional water available for multiple uses
Hydropower generation (GWh)
GOVERNANCE
Boundary conditions
Parameters set for both scenarios:
MSC 60% + Outflow 800 m³/sFloating PV = 7.7 x 7.7 km~5% Sobradinho lake area
Image: Azevedo (2018)
Sobradinho lake area in wet (2011) and
dry (2016) years
Input data: Capacity factor: 0.195; PV pannel power: 250Wp; PV pannel area: 1.6m²; Row spacing ratio: 2
This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil (CAPES) - Finance Code 001. The authors acknowledge the National Institute for Science and Technology for Climate Change (INCT‐MC), process CNPq 573797/2008‐0 and FAPESP 2008/57719‐9, INCT‐MC2 – process CNPq 465501/2014-1, FAPESP 2014/50848-9 and CAPES/FAPS Nº 16/2014 and the Research in Global Climate Change Program FAPESP 2017/22269-2.
Demand security level
Usable volume level
Reference Scenario
1,00
1,03
1,06
1,09
800 900 1000
Streamflow at river mouth (m³/s)
Incremental Hydroelectricity
2,850 GWh/year
2,620 GWh/year0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
800 900 1000
Streamflow at river mouth (m³/s)
Saved water from evaporation
6.8 bi m³
4.6 bi m³
MSC
CO
NC
LUSI
ON
