Solar Bankability Webinar Financial Modelling of Technical Risks in PV Projects · 2018-01-18 ·...

Funded by the Horizon 2020

Framework Programme of the

European Union

Solar Bankability WebinarNovember 22, 2016

Financial Modelling of Technical Risks in PV Projects

Matthias v. Armansperg, ACCELIOS Solar

Risk Modelling Software

22

Modelling software

Yield

Aux-Excel

Financing

Aux-Excel

Dashboard

Excel

Risk modelling

Visual Basic

Cashflow

Excel

• Solar Bankability Webinar 11/22/2016


33

Input parameters Modelling software

Yield

Aux-Excel

Financing

Aux-Excel

Dashboard

Excel

Risk modelling

Visual Basic

Techn. risk

database

BM1

BM2

BM3

BM4

Repair & maint.

cost factors

BM1

BM2

BM3

BM4

Business Model

techn./finance

BM1

BM2

BM3

BM4

Cashflow

Excel



44

Input parameters Modelling software Output parameters

Yield

Aux-Excel

Financing

Aux-Excel

Dashboard

Excel

Risk modelling

Visual Basic

Single risk

impact

BM1

BM2

BM3

BM4

Techn. risk

database

BM1

BM2

BM3

BM4

Repair & maint.

cost factors

BM1

BM2

BM3

BM4

Business Model

techn./finance

BM1

BM2

BM3

BM4

Risc scenario

impact

BM1

BM2

BM3

BM4

Cashflow

Excel


Business Model Selection

5• Solar Bankability Webinar 11/22/2016

Financial Performance of Business Models

6

IRR (Base case)


Financial Performance of Business Models

7

IRR (Base case) Cumulative cash flow (Base case)


8

Selection of Technical Risks


9

Selection of Technical Risks


Failure Cost Calculation

10

Fixing costs due to repair/substitution (Euros)

- Cost of detection (visual inspection, monitoring system, IR for hotspots, EL for crack cells, etc)

- Cost of transportation

- Cost of labour

- Cost of repair/substitution of compontents


Failure Cost Calculation

11

Fixing costs due to repair/substitution (Euros)

- Cost of detection (visual inspection, monitoring system, IR for hotspots, EL for crack cells, etc)

- Cost of transportation

- Cost of labour

- Cost of repair/substitution of compontents

Downtime costs due to downtime and/or power loss (kWh to Euros)

- Failures might cause partial or complete power loss

- Downtime duration from occurence of failure till completion of repair/substitution

- Failures at component level might affect other components (e.g. module failure might bring

down the whole string)


Failure Categories

12

The impact of risks is measured by failure categories based on a 12 month

revenue reserve account


Failure Category Overview

13

Business Model 1 Business Model 2

Business Model 3 Business Model 4


Failure Impact – Business Model 3 (Example)

14

Failure impact on

base case

IRR of 5,52%


Failure Impact – Business Model 3 (Example)

15

Failure impact on

base case

IRR of 5,52%

Distribution of

failure costs


Risk Scenario – Business Model 3 (Example)

16

Risk Risk number Risk name Start Date Case Phase

Risk 1 3020 Hotspot of modules 01.01.2012 Best Infant

Risk 22) 3101 Flooding of inverter 01.08.2017 Worst Mid-life

Risk 31) 3051 Lightning strike of inverter 01.06.2020 Worst Mid-life

Risk 4 3011 Failure of bypass diode and juction box 01.10.2026 Worst Wear-out

Comments

1) External cause independent from project phase

2) Business model specific risk, i.e. due to system design/technology, geographic/climatic conditions

Risk scenario - businss model 3


Risk Scenario – Business Model 3 (Example)

17

Risk Risk number Risk name Start Date Case Phase

Risk 1 3020 Hotspot of modules 01.01.2012 Best Infant

Risk 22) 3101 Flooding of inverter 01.08.2017 Worst Mid-life

Risk 31) 3051 Lightning strike of inverter 01.06.2020 Worst Mid-life

Risk 4 3011 Failure of bypass diode and juction box 01.10.2026 Worst Wear-out

Comments

1) External cause independent from project phase

2) Business model specific risk, i.e. due to system design/technology, geographic/climatic conditions

Risk scenario - businss model 3

-10.000.000 EUR

-8.000.000 EUR

-6.000.000 EUR

-4.000.000 EUR

-2.000.000 EUR

0 EUR

2.000.000 EUR

4.000.000 EUR

6.000.000 EUR

20112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030

Base case Risk scenario

Cumulative cash flow


Risk Mitigation Measures

18

Gu

ara

nte

eL

eve

l 1

Gu

ara

nte

eL

eve

l 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Year

Infant Phase Wear-out Phase

Wa

rra

nty

Mid-life Phase

Co

mm

issio

nin

g


Risk Mitigation Measures

19

Gu

ara

nte

eL

eve

l 1

Gu

ara

nte

eL

eve

l 2

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

Year

Infant Phase Wear-out Phase

Wa

rra

nty

Mid-life Phase

Co

mm

issio

nin

g

Commissioning

check

End of

warranty check

Mid-life

advanced

inspection


Solar Bankability and Risk Management

20

New capital market regulations like Basel III or Solvency II require

thorough due diligence and risk management procedures


Project Reports: www.solarbankability.eu

11/22/2016• Solar Bankability Webinar 21

Final Public Workshop 7th-8th February 2017

Brussels, Belgium

Enhancement of PV Investment Attractiveness

Concept:

Target groups: Finance sector, insurance, EPCs, service providers, decision

makers / broader attendance

1.5-day-Workshop including networking dinner

Fully paid workshop for max. 120 participants

Registration available: End of Oct 2016

Save the date: 7-8 Feb 2017!

11/22/2016 22• Solar Bankability Webinar

Funded by the Horizon 2020

Framework Programme of the

European Union

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 649997.

The content of this report reflects only the author’s view and the Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains

Thank you!

Matthias v. Armansperg, ACCELIOS Solar

Solar Bankability Webinar Financial Modelling of Technical Risks in PV Projects · 2018-01-18 ·...

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