Soil Moisture datasets for seasonal and decadal forecast

Stefano Materia, Andrea Borrelli 22-10-2012

The CMCC Seasonal Prediction System is initialized with the “closest to reality” state of the ocean and atmosphere. We still miss the initial condition of the land surface component, which was found to be a crucial predictor.

The CMCC Seasonal Prediction System (SPS)

Radiative forcings

GHGs & SO4

Land Surface Atmosphere

OceanSea Ice

Atmospheric Initial

conditions

Global Model component

Near-Observational inputs

Ocean initial condition

Land surface initial condition

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Development of a new soil moisture dataset

A joint effort between WP1 & WP2

• From ESA CCI soil moisture (microwave remote sensing)

• To a gridded surface soil moisture: SM-ECVhyb

• To a 3-dimensional soil moisture dataset: SM-ECVplus

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SM-ECVplus: Climatology and variability

Fraction of soil water

EOF analysis

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Soil moisture datasets for sensitivity analysis

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Modeled soil moisture, obtained through observed meteorological forcing, is being used to test the sensitivity of seasonal and decadal forecast to soil moisture initialization

Interannual variability of soil moisture in Sahel region

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