Soil and Water Management in the Face of Changing...

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY EXTENSION

Aaron B. Wilson

OSU Extension

Byrd Polar & Climate Research Center

[email protected]

Soil and Water Management in the

Face of Changing Weather Patterns

Aaron B. Wilson

OKI Regional Conservation Council’s Annual Meeting

April 17, 2018


Photo credit: Ohio History Connection“Ohio’s greatest weather disaster.”• 6-11” of rain• 467 deaths• Over 40,000

homes destroyed

Flood of

1913Photo credit: Knox County Historical Society

Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=10941105


Blizzard of 1978January 26-27; 51 lives lost

Sample of NWS recorded peak wind gusts:

• 69 mph – Dayton & Columbus• 75 mph – Akron• 82 mph – Cleveland Hopkins

Airport• 86 mph sustained with gusts to

111 mph on Lake Erie (reported by ore carrier J. Burton Ayers)

Loudenslager farm in Marion County.

Photo courtesy of Marion County Historical Society

https://www.weather.gov/iln/19780126


Derecho of 2012


What is Weather?• Current state of the atmosphere

• Caused by physical imbalances of heat, atmospheric

pressure, and moisture

• Consists of the short-term (minutes to days) variations in the

atmosphere.


What is Climate?

• Slower varying aspects of the atmosphere–hydrosphere–land

surface system

• Averages of the climate system over periods of a month or

more.


Weather & Perception


How have global temperatures changed?


HowGlobalWarmingWorks.org, 2014


CO2 and evaporated

water become warmer as

they absorb infrared

radiation from earth’s

surface trying to escape to

space.



https://health2016.globalchange.gov/climate-change-and-human-health

National and Regional Climate Trends


Closer to Home: Observed Temperature Changes

• Annual average temperature over the contiguous United States has increased by 1.2°F

(0.7°C) for the period 1986–2016 relative to 1901–1960 and by 1.8°F (1.0°C) based on

a linear regression for the period 1895–2016: National Climate Assessment CCSR:

https://science2017.globalchange.gov/

Average (1986-2016) minus

Average (1901-1960)



Shifting Growing Zones


• Expanding the “corn belt”

north and west into the

Dakotas and southern Canada

• Perhaps mitigates nationwide

crop losses more difficult

• Increased pressure from

invasive plant species and

weeds

• Depends on management

system, and rainfall changes

Impacts from Shifting Growing Zones

Gary Schnitkey: Department of Agricultural and Consumer

Economics; University of Illinois

http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2013/03/geographical-

acreage-changes.html


Closer to Home: Extremes

• Decreases in warmest temperatures tied to unprecedented summer heat of

the 1930s Dust Bowl era (springtime precipitation deficits and land

mismanagement)

• Agricultural intensification may have suppressed the hottest extremes in the

Midwest. (Muller et al, 2016: Nature Climate Change; Science

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/america-s-corn-belt-making-

its-own-weather)

National Climate Assessment CCSR: https://science2017.globalchange.gov/


https://statesummaries.ncics.org/

IN

KY

OH

• Number of nights below zero

has decreased significantly

since the 60s/70s.


• Advance phenological state → susceptibility to late season

freeze/frost

• Loss of nutrients through multiple dormancy breaks

• Pests shifting northward, increasing generation times, and

multiple generations of insects with increased pesticide

resistance lead to increased management

Impacts from False Springs and Increased Frost-

Free Season Length


IN

KY

OH

• Increase in number of warm

summer nights.


• Additional stress on humans and livestock; Increased need

for adequate cooling

• Accelerated pace of GDD accumulation; Changes in

regional crop rotations and field management options

(double-cropping use of cover crops)

• Pollination and grain, fiber, or fruit production sensitive to

high temperatures – lower productivity and reduced

quality

Impacts from Warmer Temperatures (Nights)


Closer to Home: Observed Precipitation Changes

• Annual precipitation has decreased in much of the West, Southwest, and Southeast

and increased in most of the Northern and Southern Plains, Midwest, and Northeast.

A national average increase of 4% in annual precipitation since 1901 mostly a result of

large increases in the fall season. National Climate Assessment CCSR:



Closer to Home: Seasonal Differences

IN

KY

OH


• Recent increase in annual

precipitation, especially across

Indiana and Ohio.


North Edge of Arcanum: July 6, 2017

Photos Courtesy of Sam Custer/Janelle

Brinksneader

Photos courtesy of Ohio DOT: Flooding

of I-70 through Licking County in

Central Ohio on July 14, 2017


https://statesummaries.ncics.org/oh

1913

1937

1959

OHIO


• Soil movement and loss - mitigate with reduction in tillage

or cover crops

• Nutrient loss and downstream water quality issues –

incorporations and proper timing, placement (4 Rs)

• Loss of field work days; Delayed planting/harvests

Ag Impacts from Precipitation Extremes


• Extreme precipitation is part

of the story of water

impairment.

• Harmful algal blooms on

Lake Erie (above) and

Ohio River (right)


Relative to 1976-2005 average



Soil & Water• Seasonal precipitation changes

and impacts on water availability

for crop production

• Healthy soils impacted by

erosion, compaction, and loss of

organic matter.• Organic material impacted by soil

temperature & water availability

• Increased erosion from intense

extreme rainfall events

• Increased potential for associated, off-site, non-point-source pollution.

• Tillage intensity, crop selection, as well as planting and harvest dates can

significantly affect runoff and soil loss.

• Surface and groundwater systems impacted over time through changes

in evapotranspiration and recharge


Greater Flood Risk (Increased Frequency of Flooding)

• Increased risk (damage to water infrastructure and changing floodplains (roads,

floodwalls, dams, electric grid, water intakes, etc.)

• Health risks associated with floods (mold, exposure to chemicals and waterborne

pathogens, vector control, drinking water and food contamination)

• Increased transportation issues (major disruptions to local economy, difficult for

police and ambulances to respond to emergencies when areas are flooded).

Reduced Water Quality

• Intensity means more runoff and potential contamination

• Increased need for water treatment due to deteriorated water quality.

• Potential for summer droughts and seasonal water shortages, particularly for

agricultural and industrial use.

It’s About Having Conversations


Byrd Polar and

Climate Research Center

Migrating Climates


Climate Change Adaptation

• Increase our knowledge about the threats from changing local

climate/weather patterns (direct impacts) and changes in other

locales (prices)

• Plan action to maintain profitability, sustainability, and healthy water

and soil


Thank you!

Aaron Wilson

[email protected]

Soil and Water Management in the Face of Changing...

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