Société Générale The Nice Conference - K+S
Transcript of Société Générale The Nice Conference - K+S
Société GénéraleThe Nice Conference
K+S Group
Dr Burkhard Lohr, CEO Lutz Grüten, Head of Investor Relations
Nice, 28 May 2019
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K+S Group
K+S Group
Disclaimer
No reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information or opinions contained in the Presentation or on its completeness, accuracy of fairness. No
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made or given by or on behalf of the Company or any of its respective directors, officers, employees, agents or
advisers as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information or opinions contained in the Presentation and no responsibility or liability is accepted by any of
them for any such information or opinions. In particular, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of, and no
reliance should be placed on any projections, targets, ambitions, estimates or forecasts contained in this Presentation and nothing in this Presentation is or should be
relied on as a promise or representation as to the future.
This Presentation contains facts and forecasts that relate to the future development of the K+S Group and its companies. The forecasts are estimates that we have made
on the basis of all the information available to us at this moment in time. Should the assumptions underlying these forecasts prove not to be correct or should certain
risks – such as those referred to in the Annual Report – materialise, actual developments and events may deviate from current expectations. Given these risks,
uncertainties and other factors, recipients of this document are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forecasts.
This Presentation is subject to change. In particular, certain financial results presented herein are unaudited, and may still be undergoing review by the Company’s
accountants. The Company may not notify you of changes and disclaims any obligation to update or revise any statements, in particular forward-looking statements, to
reflect future events or developments, save for the making of such disclosures as are required by the provisions of statue. Thus statements contained in this
Presentation should not be unduly relied upon and past events or performance should not be taken as a guarantee or indication of future events or performance.
This Presentation has been prepared for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer, an invitation or a recommendation to purchase or sell securities
issued by K+S Aktiengesellschaft or any company of the K+S Group in any jurisdiction.
Current Trading
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K+S Group
K+S Group
Potash pricing remains strong
Higher Bethune production; first quarter w/o volumes from Sigmundshall potash mine
Good de-icing salt business in North America; higher freight cost headwind YoY persits
EBITDA and FCF improved again
New reporting structure in place
Highlights Financials
€ million Q1/18 Q1/19 YoY
Revenues 1,170 1,264 +8%
t/o Europe+ 662 692 +5%
t/o Americas 507 571 +13%
D&A -90 -100 -10%
EBITDA 237 270 +14%
t/o Europe+ 156 177 +14%
t/o Americas 96 108 +12%
Adj. net profit 84 108 +29%
Adj. EPS (€) 0.44 0.56 +27%
Operating cash flow 233 324 +39%
Adj. FCF 143 233 +63%
CapEx 63 73 +16%
-
Net fin. debt/EBITDA 4.7 4.6 -
Q1 2019: Another quarter with solid results
237270
89
6 -27
-35
Q1/18 Price Volume/Mix
FX,Others
Costinflation
Q1/19
EBITDA in €m
Main effects:- General
costinflation:e.g. freight
Main effects:+ Prices in
agriculture+ North American
de-icing/consumerbusiness
Main effects:- Shaping+ FX- Others
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K+S Group
2019 FULL-YEAR GUIDANCE confirmed
OPERATING PERFORMANCE improved
WASTEWATER MANAGEMENT improved
CASH CONVERSION RATE improved
SHAPING/CUSTOMER ORIENTATION on track
BETHUNE RAMP-UP on track
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K+S Group
K+S Group
Pricing (Source: FMB)
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 Q4/17 Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19
SOP Europe
MOP Brazil
Global demand 2018 again slightly up to
~71mt KCl (2017: ~69mt)
Robust demand holds across all regions
Most producers are committed until end
of Q2/19
MOP price momentum remains
supportive into Q2 (YoY)
European MOP and Specialty prices are
picking up but are still lagging behind
K+S Agriculture average selling price:
FY/18: 254 €/t (FY/17: 241 €/t);
Q4/18: 268 €/t; Q1/19: 281 €/t
Trading Update: Customer Segment Agriculture
MOP Europe
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Trading Update: Customer Segments Industry and Consumers
Solid demand, gradually increasing
sales volumes
Logistic costs after inflation,
especially in North America, in 2018:
“new normal” for 2019
In the Consumers customer segment,
Q1/19 showed first success to pass
on higher costs, especially for
logistics, to our customers
2.47 2.52 2.572.74
2.44
0.48 0.41 0.420.50
0.48
Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19
Industry Consumers
Sigmundshallvolumes missing
Sales volumes (in mt)
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Trading Update: Customer Segment Communities
Pricing trends in customer segment Communities
Mixed picture in our regions in winter
2018/19
Good business in US Mid-West and
Canada
Highly competitive US East Coast
Europe:
Q4: mild weather
Q1: average demand
In total, Q4 almost on and Q1 above
long-term average
Widely promising start into bidding
season 2019
6.86
0.931.53
4.00
7.11
Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19
Sales volumes in customer segment Communities (in mt)
Shaping 2030 Strategy
K+S Group 9
K+S Group
Tapping the full potential of our existing assets... and establish the most value-creating portfolio combination
Exploring new adjacent growth areas... pursuing growth by venturing into new markets where we can use our existing capabilities
Increasing the share of our specialties business... to ensure an overall stabilized performance and reduce our dependency on standard products and weather
'One Company' ... thinking and acting as 'One Company' and realizing synergies between our businesses
We will be the most customer-focused, independent minerals company and grow our EBITDA to €3bn in 2030 by ...
Our vision for 2030
IndustryAgriculture
ConsumersCommunities
K+S Group 10
K+S Group
Phase 2: Growth
203020202017
Phase 1: Transformation
Realize synergies
Advance corporate culture
Net financial debt/ halvedEBITDA vs. H1/2017
Synergies > €150m
EBITDA-Ambition €3bn
ROCE > 15%
Revenue growthbeyond 2030
> 4%
Increased share of specialties
Tapping the full potential of our existing assets
Exploring new adjacent growth areas
Shaping the organizationand focusing towards our clients
Reduce indebtedness
Investment grade ratingachieved in 2023
We will implement our strategy in two phases
Phase I
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Phase I: Building a basis for our growth options
Matrix
Operating Unit Function
Agriculture
Industries
Consumers
Communities
Customer Segments
Operations
Board of Executive Directors
COO Group CFO GroupCEO Group
CEO Americas
Head of Human Resources
Head of Corporate Communications
Head of Corporate Development
Head of Corporate Controlling
Matrix
Executive Committee
Head of Marketing,Sales & Supply Chain
Excellence
Marketing & SalesCommittee
Operations Excellence Committee
Head of Operations Excellence
CEO Europe+
Board of Executive Directors
Divisional Silos
IndustryAgriculture
ConsumersCommunities
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SHAPING 2030
Lift synergies
Operations
Procurement
Supply Chain and Logistics
Commercial Excellence
SG&A Optimization
> €50m
Net synergies YE 2020 (vs. 2017)
> €30m
> €20m
> €20m
~ €30m
COO
Sponsor
CFO
COO
COO
CEO
∑ > €150m
Synergies: Breakdown by program
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Shaping 2030 EBITDA impact
Costs Synergies > €150m
Total costs for synergy program: ~ €150m (2020 year end)
2018e 2019e 2020e
K+S Group 15
K+S Group
This NPV equals an EV per share of 25 EUR
Variation NPV change
MOP gran. Brazil +/- 10 USD/t +/- €200 million
“We create value for our stakeholders!”
Net Present Value (NPV) Bethune
Sen
siti
viti
es
NPV for Bethune EUR 4.8 bn
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Site costs (FOB) in comparison (2020)
* column width = production capability in million tonsSource: CRU Report 2016, K+S
-30%
BU Potashw/o Bethune
(incl. Specialties)
Best-in-class
USD/t
K+S Bethune(in 2023)
K+S Zielitz(Purely MOP)
K+S Bethune*
The Bethune ramp-up to 2.86 million tons in 2023 (production capability) significantly improves K+S's competitive position.
Phase II
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K+S Group
K+S Group
Implications for K+S
Arable land shrinking
Yield needs to be improved
Higher efficiency of fertilizationand irrigation needed
Plants have to be more stressresistent
Infrastructure needs to beimproved focus on renewable energy
Growing population, especiallyin Asia, needs more salt forvarious purposes
Today: 7.3bn
8.5bnGlobal population in 2030
Per decade
0.2Average global warming (ºC)
70% of water used for agriculture
40%of population suffer from water shortage by 2030
2015: 3.0bn
5.4bnpeople belong to the middle-class by 2030
Our strategy has incorporated important megatrends
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Geo-expansion Fertilizer Industry
Africa
Asia
Increase of fertilizer specialties
Ramp of low cost commodities
Expand Pharma & Food portfolio
Chemical applications
Growth areas and ideas cover the full growth landscape
K+S Growth Landscape
Growth areas and ideas cover core and adjacent businesses
Financials
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K+S Group
P&L
€ million Q1/18 Q2/18 Q3/18 Q4/18 FY/18 Q1/19
Revenues 1,170 812 840 1,217 4,039 1,264
EBITDA 237 105 36 228 606 270
Margin 20% 13% 4% 19% 15% 21%
Depreciation 90 92 94 103 379 99
Financial result -31 -25 -26 -30 -112 -17
EBT, adjusted 116 -12 -84 95 115 154
Tax rate, adjusted 28% 25% 27% 25% 26% 30%
Net income, adjusted 84 -9 -61 71 85 108
EPS, adjusted 0.44 -0.05 -0.32 0.38 0.45 0.56
K+S Group 22
K+S Group
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet
€ million Q1/18 H1/18 9M/18 FY/18 Q1/19
Operating cash flow 233 292 276 309 324
- Investing cash flow(pre sale/ purchase of securities)
-90 -198 -336 -515 -91
Adjusted free cash flow 143 94 -60 -206 233
CapEx 63 154 278 443 73
Net financial debt 2,834 2,944 3,100 3,242 2,935
Net financial debt/ EBITDA (LTM) 4.7 4.9 5.5 5.3 4.6
Equity ratio 42 % 43% 41% 41% 43 %
K+S Group 23
K+S Group
NEW OLD NEW
New Reporting Structure
Europe+:Potash and Magnesium Products (incl. Bethune)
Salt Europe
Americas:Salt excluding Europe
Potash and MagnesiumProducts (incl. Bethune)
Salt
Potassium chlorideFertilizer specialities
Industrial products
Complementary
Non De-icing
Non De-icing
De-icing salt
Agriculture
Industry
Consumers
Communities
Operating Units Business segments Products Customer Segments Subsegments
• Potassium chloride (MOP)• Fertilizer specialities:
SOP, Kieserite, Kornkali
• Chemical• Animal Nutrition• Oil and Gas• Water Softening• Food• Pharma• Complementary
• Culinary• Water and Pool• Ice Melt
• De-icing Bulk • De-icing Packaged
Complementary Activities
Segments according to IFRS 8
Reconciliation Reconciliation
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K+S EBITDA 2019: € 700 to € 850m (2018: € 606m)
606
700-
850
FY18 Price Volume/Mix
Others Cost inflation FY19
EBITDA in €m
Main effects:
+Bethune
+ Absence of
drought
effect
- Roof stability
Neuhof
- Average de-
icing salt
business
Main effects:
+Sigmunds-
hall
+ Shaping
- FX
+/- OthersMain effects:
+ASP in CS
Agriculture
moderately
up on last
year
+ Supportive
product prices
in other CSs
Main effects:
- Inflation
returning:
Higher
personnel,
energy, freight,
and material
costs
High probability to have no weather-related standstills in 2019!
Guidance 2019 confirmed
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CapEx development 2015-2020
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
1.200
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019e 2020e
BU Potash (ex Bethune)
Bethune
BU Salt
Complementary Activities
in m€
K+S sustainability KPIs and targets 2030
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Goal KPI 2018Target by
2030 at the latest
PEO
PLE
Health & Safety
Lost time incident rate (LTIR) 7,90
Vision 2030
Diversity & Inclusion
Employees’ favorable perception of inclusive work environment (percent)
68 (2015) >90
Human Rights
Sites covered by a human rights due diligence process (percent)
0 100
K+S sustainability KPIs and targets 2030 – People
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Goal KPI 2018 Target by2030 at the
latest
ENV
IRO
NM
ENT
Water
Deep-well injection of saline wastewater in Germany (m³ p.a.)
1.0 0 starting January
2022
Additional reduction of saline process water from potash production in Germany (m³ p.a.)
+400,000-500,000
excluding reduction by KCF facility and
end of production SI
Waste
Amount of residues used for other purposes than tailings piles or increased amount of raw material yield (million tons p.a.)
1.0 3
Additional area of tailings piles covered (ha) 5.9 155
Energy & Climate
Carbon footprint for power consumed (kg CO2/MWh) (percent)
-1.5 -20
Specific greenhouse gas emissions (CO2) in logistics (percent)
-2.0 -10
K+S sustainability KPIs and targets 2030 – Environment
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Goal KPI 2018Target by
2030 at the latest
BU
SIN
ESS
ETH
ICS
Sustainable Supply Chains
Critical suppliers aligned with the K+S Group Supplier Code of Conduct (SCoC) (percent)
14.7100
by end of 2025
Spend coverage of the K+S Group SCoC (percent) 29.4> 90
by end of 2025
Compliance & Anti-Corruption
All employees reached by communication measures and trained appropriately in compliance matters (percent)
71100
by end of 2019
K+S sustainability KPIs and targets 2030 – Business Ethics
K+S Group 30
K+S Group
Housekeeping Items / Financial Calendar
Tax rate: ~30%
Financial result: ~-120 million EUR
CapEx: ~600 million EUR
D&A (incl. Bethune): 380 to 400 million EUR
Reconciliation (EBITDA): -60 to -70 million EUR
Additional information on Outlook FY 2019
Financial Calendar
Customer Segment Agriculture:Sales volume: 6.9-7.2m t (2018: 6.8m t)ASP: moderately up (2018: 255 €/t)
Customer Segment Communities:Sales volume: 12.5-13.0m t (2018: 13.3m t)
UBS Best of Europe Conference, New York 29 May 2019
DIRK Jahreskonferenz, Frankfurt 3 June 2019
mBank Chemical Event, Warschau 4 June 2019
Credit Suisse Chemicals and Agriculture Conference, London 4 June 2019
Db Access Conference, Berlin 5-7 June 2019
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K+S Group
K+S Group
IR Contact Details
e-mail: [email protected]: www.k-plus-s.comIR-website: www.k-plus-s.com/ir
K+S AktiengesellschaftBertha-von-Suttner-Str. 734131 Kassel (Germany)
Janina RochellInvestor Relations Manager
Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1403Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]
Lutz GrütenHead of Investor Relations
Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1460Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]
Christiane MartelRoadshow Management
Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1100Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]
Martin HeistermannSenior Investor Relations Manager
Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1403Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]
Alexander EngeInvestor Relations Manager
Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1885Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]
Julia Bock, CFASenior Investor Relations Manager
Phone: +49 561 / 9301-1009Fax: +49 561 / [email protected]