Socio-economic differences in higher education ...€¦ · Chalk + Talk: The University Challenge...
Transcript of Socio-economic differences in higher education ...€¦ · Chalk + Talk: The University Challenge...
Chalk + Talk: The University Challenge Socio-economic differences in higher education participation and outcomes Speaker: Dr Claire Crawford, University of Warwick and Institute of Fiscal Studies Chair: Nida Broughton, Chief Economist, SMF
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Socio-economic differences in higher education participation and outcomes
Claire Crawford
University of Warwick and Institute for Fiscal Studies
Motivation: rising socio-economic inequalities in HE participation and degree acquisition over time
18.9ppts 22.6ppts
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Difference in HE participation/degree acquisition rates between those in the top and bottom income quintile groups
HE participation at age 19 Degree acquisition by age 23
Source: Blanden & Machin (2004), Educational inequality and the expansion of UK higher education, Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 51, pp. 230-249.
Motivation: what has happened since then?
• Participation in higher education has continued to rise
• Fees and student support arrangements have changed significantly
• SES differences in some measures of attainment have been falling
SES gap in terms of % getting 5 A*-C grades in GCSEs and equivalents has fallen substantially
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% pupils getting 5 A*-C grades in GCSEs and equivalents
FSM Non-FSM Difference (RH axis)
2010-2012 figures based on SFR 04/2013: GCSE and Equivalent Attainment by Pupil Characteristics in England. 2006-2009 figures based on SFR 37/2010: GCSE and Equivalent Attainment by Pupil Characteristics in England.
2004-2005 figures based on authors’ calculations using Key Stage 4 and PLASC data.
Motivation: what does this mean for SES gaps in HE participation and outcomes?
• Prior attainment:
– Given key role in driving HE participation and outcomes, poorer students “catching up” with their better off peers may decrease SES gaps
• Changes to student finance:
– Concerns that prospect of high fees/debt levels would create a barrier to participation/retention for poorer students and hence increase SES gaps
• Mass HE participation:
– Potential “selection effects”: lower ability students may be less likely to complete their degree and less likely to graduate with a 1st or a 2:1
• Effect on SES gaps ambiguous (depends where new participants are drawn from)
• Empirical question . . .
Plan for today
• Document socio-economic gaps in HE participation, drop-out, degree completion and degree class
• Explore the extent to which these gaps can be explained by differences in other characteristics, especially prior attainment
• Compare these results to differences by school characteristics (including differences in labour market outcomes)
• What policy implications can be drawn from our results?
Data
• Analysis of HE participation, drop-out, degree completion and degree class uses linked NPD-HESA data
– NPD: population of pupils attending schools in England
– HESA: population of students attending universities in the UK
→ Allows us to follow the population of pupils attending schools in England from age 11 through to potential degree completion
• Analysis of labour market outcomes uses DLHE data
– Intended to be a census of those graduating from university (2007 here)
– Information on activity status collected after 6 months and 3.5 years, and matched to HESA data, so have some background characteristics
Key covariates of interest
• Socio-economic status
– Combine FSM eligibility at age 16 with measures of local area deprivation based on pupils’ home postcode at age 16
– Split state school population into quintile groups based on this index
– Add private school students to top quintile group
• Secondary school performance:
– % of pupils in school achieving at least 5 A*-C grades at GCSE
– Pupils split into quintile groups based on this measure
• Type of school in which sat A-levels (for labour market analysis):
– State vs. private school
HE participation
Outcomes: HE participation
• Participation at any UK university for the first time at age 18 or 19, for participants first eligible to go to university 2004-05 to 2010-11
• Participation at a “high status” institution, where high status is:
– Russell Group institutions (20 in total pre-2012)
– Plus any UK university with a 2001 average RAE score higher than the lowest amongst the Russell Group (an extra 21 institutions)
HE participation: how has it changed amongst state school students over time?
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Participation at age 18 or 19 High status participation at age 18 or 19
Source: authors’ calculations based on linked schools and universities administrative data for the cohorts first eligible to start university between 2004-05 and 2010-11 (who sat their GCSEs between 2002 and 2008)
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Participation at age 18 or 19 High status participation at age 18 or 19
Participation: most deprived High status participation: most deprived
Participation: least deprived High status participation: least deprived
Source: authors’ calculations based on linked schools and universities administrative data for the cohorts first eligible to start university between 2004-05 and 2010-11 (who
sat their GCSEs between 2002 and 2008)
HE participation: how has it changed amongst state school students over time?
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19.5ppts 18.4ppts
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Difference in participation (least-most) Difference in high status participation (least-most)
Participation at age 18 or 19 High status participation at age 18 or 19
Participation: most deprived High status participation: most deprived
Participation: least deprived High status participation: least deprived
Source: authors’ calculations based on linked schools and universities administrative data for the cohorts first eligible to start university between 2004-05 and 2010-11 (who sat their
GCSEs between 2002 and 2008)
HE participation: how has it changed amongst state school students over time?
HE participation overall and at high status institutions for state school pupils first eligible to go in 2010-11, by SES
19.1%
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2.9% 4.7% 7.7% 12.1%
21.3% 18.4ppts
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Lowest SES quintile group
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Difference (highest - lowest)
% pupils going to university at age 18/19: highest SES quintile group including state school pupils only
HE participation overall HE participation at a high status institution
Source: authors’ calculations based on linked schools and universities administrative data for the cohort first eligible to start university in 2010-11 (who sat their GCSEs in 2007-08)
HE participation overall and at high status institutions for all pupils first eligible to go in 2010-11, by SES
19.1%
25.6%
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60.9%
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2.9% 4.7% 7.7% 12.1%
28.1% 25.2ppts
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Lowest SES quintile group
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Difference (highest - lowest)
% pupils going to university at age 18/19: highest SES quintile group including state and private school pupils
HE participation overall HE participation at a high status institution
Source: authors’ calculations based on linked schools and universities administrative data for the cohort first eligible to start university in 2010-11 (who sat their GCSEs in 2007-08)
What explains differences in HE participation between state school pupils from most and least deprived backgrounds?
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Plus Key Stage 4 and equivalent results
Plus Key Stage 5 and equivalent results
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HE participation overall Participation at high status institutions
Source: authors’ calculations based on linked schools and universities administrative data for the cohort first eligible to start university in 2010-11 (who sat their GCSEs in 2007-08)
Summary
• Large differences in HE participation overall and at high status institutions on the basis of socio-economic status
• But these gaps can largely be explained by differences in prior attainment between pupils from different backgrounds
– Particularly emphasise the substantial explanatory power of KS4
• Suggests that before the end of secondary school is a potentially vital period for interventions to “widen” participation in HE
Drop-out, degree completion and degree class
Outcomes: drop-out
• Drop-out in first or second year:
– Defined only for those who went to university at age 18 or 19
– Focus on those who leave the sector completely; anyone who transfers to another university is included in the zeroes
• Need to be able to observe three years of data to define measure
– Means focus on those first eligible to go 2004-05 to 2008-09
• 11.5% drop-out on our measure
• Slightly lower (9.7%) if we focus on full-time first degree entrants
Outcomes: degree completion and degree class
• For both outcomes, focus on those completing within 5 years
– Means need to be able to observe 5 years of data to define measure
– Hence focus on those first eligible to go 2004-05 to 2006-07
• Degree completion:
– Defined for those who went to university at age 18 or 19 to study full-time for a first degree in a non-medical subject
– 78.2% complete their degree within 5 years on our definition
• Graduate with a 1st or a 2:1:
– Sample as above but additionally restricted to those who complete their degree within 5 years
– 64.6% of degree completers graduate with a 1st or a 2:1 on our definition
% of HE participants from state schools who drop-out, complete their degree and graduate with a first or 2:1, by percentile of socio-economic background
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Percentile of SES distribution (1=least deprived; 100=most deprived)
Drop-out within 2 years Complete degree within 5 years Graduate with a first or 2:1
Source: authors’ calculations based on linked NPD-HESA data for the cohorts first eligible to start university between 2004-05 and 2008-09 for drop-out, and between 2004-05 and
2006-07 for degree completion and degree class
What explains differences in university outcomes between pupils from high and low SES backgrounds?
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Plus university attended and
subject studied
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Dropout within 2 years Complete degree within 5 years Graduate with a first or 2:1
Source: authors’ calculations based on linked NPD-HESA data for the cohorts first eligible to start university between 2004-05 and 2008-09 for drop-out, and between 2004-05 and
2006-07 for degree completion and degree class
How does this compare to the differences between pupils from the highest and lowest performing schools?
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Dropout within 2 years Complete degree within 5 years Graduate with a first or 2:1
Source: authors’ calculations based on linked NPD-HESA data for the cohorts first eligible to start university between 2004-05 and 2008-09 for drop-out, and between 2004-05 and
2006-07 for degree completion and degree class
Summary
• Differences in HE outcomes smaller, on average, than participation, and in expected direction (but amongst selected sample)
• Controlling for attainment on entry to university substantially reduces SES differences; comparing students on the same courses makes little difference over and above accounting for attainment
– Students from high SES backgrounds still, on average, less likely to drop out, more likely to complete degree and more likely to get first or 2:1 than students from low SES backgrounds
• Different picture when comparing outcomes by school performance
– Students from high-performing schools are, on average, more likely to drop out, less likely to complete degree and less likely to get first or 2:1 once we account for differences in attainment prior to university entry
Policy implications?
• Attainment during secondary school still a key driver of progression and performance at university, so SES gaps in these outcomes may fall if attainment rises earlier in the school system
• Differences by school characteristics suggest that pupils from low performing schools with the same attainment as those from high performing schools have, on average, higher “potential”
– Universities may wish to account for this in making entry offers
– If they do, they are likely to get it right on average
• Same is not true for individual/neighbourhood measures of SES
– Does not mean that no students from lower SES backgrounds will go on to outperform students from higher SES backgrounds at university
– But it is not true on average: makes it more challenging for universities to identify low SES students with high potential to do well
Early labour market outcomes
Is HE a route to social mobility?
• Returns to education in the UK largely accrue to qualifications
– Also vary by institution, subject and degree class
• But those from lower SES backgrounds and lower performing schools are less likely to attend a high status institution, less likely to complete their degree and less likely to get a first or 2:1
• Do such differences persist into the labour market too?
• Look at earnings differences 6 months and 3.5 years after graduation for those who attended private vs. state schools
Differences in earnings between graduates who previously attended private vs. state schools
12.8% 11.7%
6.7% 5.8%
17.2%
12.7%
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Raw Plus background controls
Plus prior attainment Plus occupation
6 months 3.5 years
Source: authors’ calculations based on Destination of Leavers from Higher Education data for UK-domiciled students who studied full-time for a first degree and graduated in 2006-07.
Summary
• Private school students earn more than state school students, even when we compare those who went to the same universities, studied the same subjects and went into the same occupations
• Why?
– Better social networks?
– Better non-cognitive skills?
– Or are we still not measuring ability well enough? • Can check this now that NPD-HESA and DLHE have been linked
• But as things stand, those from lower socio-economic backgrounds and state schools do not appear to benefit to the same extent from higher education: challenge for social mobility?
Relevant published work
• Chowdry, H., C. Crawford, L. Dearden, A. Goodman and A. Vignoles (2013), Widening participation in higher education: analysis using linked administrative data, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, Vol. 176, pp. 431-457.
• Crawford, C. (2012), Socio-economic gaps in HE participation: how have they changed over time?, IFS Briefing Note BN133.
• Crawford, C. (2014a), The link between secondary school characteristics and HE participation and outcomes, CAYT Research Report (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/secondary-school-characteristics-and-university-participation).
• Crawford, C. (2014b), Socio-economic differences in university outcomes in the UK: drop-out, degree completion and degree class, IFS Working Paper No. 14/31.
• Crawford, C. and A. Vignoles (2014), Heterogeneity in graduate earnings by socio-economic background, IFS Working Paper No. 14/30.
• Crawford, C., L. Macmillan and A. Vignoles (2014), Progress made by high-attaining children from disadvantaged backgrounds, CAYT Research Report (https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/high-attaining-children-from-disadvantaged-backgrounds).