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Social Vulnerability Datasets through the OpenQuake Platform and Description of a Case-Scenario of Integrated Risk and Resilience using OpenQuake Tools.
Dr. Christopher G. Burton24-29 August, 2014 – 2ECEES, Istanbul
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Integrated Risk Modelling in OpenQuake
Physical Seismic Risk Social Vulnerability Integrated Risk
Burton and Silva 2014
Carreño et al. 2012
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How to represent concepts of social vulnerability and integrated risk?
Data
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Khazai et al. 2014
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Social and Economic Vulnerability Database
Socio-Economic Database
Statistical Approach
Expert Opinion Approach
CorrelationsAnalysis
Completeness
Consultation
Pre-PCA data Processing
Principal Components Analysis
Social and Economic Vulnerability Database
Power et al. 2014
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Linking Users to the Social and Economic Vulnerability Database
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Data Analysis
Power et al. 2014
0,0 0,1 0,2 0,3 0,4 0,5 0,6
Construction
manufacturing n.e.c.
machinery and equipment
electrical and optical equipment
wood and wood products
leather and leather products
textiles and wearing apparel
food and tobacco
pulp, paper and paper products
rubber and plastic products
basic metals and metal products
non-metallic mineral products
chemical products
transport equipment
Electricity, gas and water supply
refined petroleum products
Capital dependency Labour Dependency Electricity Dependency Water Dependency
Transportation Dependency Supply Dependency Demand Dependency
0,529
0,528
0,424
0,408
0,357
0,331
0,310
0,310
0,298
0,295
0,190
0,264
0,291
0,289
0,290
0,255
Industrial Vulnerability Index IVIs
Illustration of Sector-specific Application: Vulnerability of industrial sectors to indirect losses in Baden Wuerttemberg, Germany. Adapted from Khazai et al.( 2011)
Power et al. 2014
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8
CEDIM – Karlsruhe Institute of Technology GEM – Global Earthquake Model SAI – Heidelberg University
How can we operationalize concepts of social vulnerability and integrated
risk?
Open-Source Tool Development
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Workflow: Integrated Risk Modeling Toolkit
Step 1. Theoretical framework: basis for definition indicator selection, weighting, and aggregation.
Step 2. Selection of indicators
Step 3. Data Standardization/Normalization
Step 4. Multivariate analysis (e.g. PCA or Reliability/Item Analysis)
Step 5. Weighting and aggregation (based on statistical models or participatory approaches)
Step 6. Robustness and sensitivity (uncertainty and sensitivity analysis)
Step 7. Links to other variables (e.g. physical risk estimates, external validation metrics)
Step 8. Presentation and dissemination
PopulationPopulation EconomyEconomy Infrastructure
Infrastructure
I1I1
I2I2
I3I3
I4I4
I4I4
I6I6
I7I7
I9I9
I8I8
IndexIndex
I1Educatio
n
I1Educatio
n
I4Gender
I4Gender
I2AgeI2Age
I6Income
I6Income
I5HealthI5
Health
I3Disabilit
y
I3Disabilit
y
IndexIndex
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Putting it all Together: Integrated Risk Modeling Toolkit
Data Inputs Weighting and Aggregation
Physical Risk Integration Visualization & MappingKhazai et al. 2014
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CEDIM – Karlsruhe Institute of Technology GEM – Global Earthquake Model SAI – Heidelberg University
How can we focus on using vulnerability and integrated risk assessment as a component for informing decision making?
Use Case on Disaster Resilience
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Title of slide image can go here
Localize
Self-evaluation Tool for Earthquake Resilience
Anhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014
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Resilience Management Framework
Anhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014
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Title of slide image can go hereAnhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014Anhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014
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Yes
Strong
Excellent
Good
Weak
NoAnhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014
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City Level
Sub-City Level
Awareness &
Advocacy
Social Capacity
Legal and Institutional
Planning and Regulation
Critical Infrastructure and Services
Emergency Preparedness &
Response
Anhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014
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Identifying the gaps: What areas can be Improved?
Anhorn, Khazai, and Burton 2014
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The Road Ahead
‣ Improvements to GIS-based and web-mapping tools
‣ Ability to account for sensitivities and uncertainties in social vulnerability model development
‣ Improvement of qualitative tools for “bottom-up” analysis
‣ Development of individual use-cases and accompanying methodologies
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Dr. Christopher G. [email protected]+39-0382-5169898
Dr. Bijan [email protected].: +49 -721-608 44442
Questions
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Except where otherwise noted, this work is licensed under: creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org